Foreign Policy 2015-03-04

the burden of many pregnancies but are	of the region and the East African com-	quality because access to that lane makes
saved by family planning.) He decided to	munity, land scarcity will continue to be	it significantly easier to bring supplies in
gettheoperation,asimpleoutpatientpro-	a stressor.”	and out of the property. In dividing his
cedure,becauseheandhiswife,Clautilde,	But the land problem is infinitely com-	land right down the middle, however,
are“veryscared”thattheirsmallplotwill	plex, with roots that run deep into Burun-	Hatungimana had ensured that only
provokeconflictamongtheirchildren,and	di’s history. The resources and political	four of his sons could claim the road as
more offspring would only increase the	willtodealwithitarescarce.Andwhether	a border.
chances of violence. But Sinzobatohana	in a new law or a family’s decades-long	Today, more than 15 years after
admits that even a demographic freeze	story, there will always be critical details	Hatungimana’s death, his family teeters
mightnotsavehisfamily,orhisneighbors.	that go overlooked—details that could	on the brink of violence. Prudence says
The numbers just don’t add up: Already,	become matters of life and death.	it’s unfair that Pascal and his brothers
too many people are squeezed onto too	In 1999, Emmanuel Hatungimana, an	have the better land, and that he is will-
little land.	elderly farmer in northern Ngozi, could	ing to fight to get what he deserves. But
“It’s unfortunate that these contracep-	feel his body slipping away. Death was	Pascal doesn’t want to give up anything.
tive programs came after we already had	very close. So he gathered his family—	So they’ve brought their case to a local
toomanykids,”Sinzobatohanasays.“The	two wives and 14 children—around his	bashingantahe. If the panel can’t resolve
damage has been done. Now we wait.”	bedside. It was time to divide his farm.	the dispute, both brothers say they don’t
	At 37.5 acres, Hatungimana’s lush	know what will happen.
	plot of land was a decent size. An equi-	Standing on the land outside his
	table division would have left his eight	brother’s house, Prudence looks left, over
International experts say a	sons with roughly 4.7 acres each. The	his shoulder, at Pascal, who listens nearby
comprehensive approach to Burundi’s	eldest sons of Hatungimana’s two wives	with his arms crossed. A dark expres-
land crisis is necessary—one that com-	stepped up to represent his part of the	sion falls over Prudence’s face. “Around
bines policy reform, better dispute-reso-	family: Pascal Hatungimana for the four	Burundi, brothers are killing brothers.
lution options, family planning, and new	sons of the first wife, and Prudence Ndi-	Sons are killing fathers. And it’s all for
economic opportunities that will ensure	kuryayo for the four sons of the second	land,”hesays.“Hopefullyourfamilywon’t
fewer Burundians rely solely on the earth	wife.Hatungimanagaveexactlyhalfofhis	reach that stage. But if something doesn’t
for survival. “People need to have eco-	land to Pascal and his brothers, and the	happen, everything will fall apart.” Θ
nomic opportunities besides agriculture,	other half to Prudence and his brothers.
to incorporate people into other kinds	The patriarch was satisfied, according to	JILLIAN KEENAN (@JillianKeenan)isawriter
of jobs and trades, so that not everyone	Pascal; his family’s future was secure. A	based in New York. She is working on a
is dependent on farming for their liveli-	few days later, he died at peace.	book about Shakespeare and global sex-
hoods,” says Jobbins of Search for Com-	But no one had considered the road.	uality. A grant from the United Nations
mon Ground. “Without some prospect	One side of Hatungimana’s land runs	Population Fund supported research for
for economic growth within the context	alongside a paved road, a very desirable	this article.

FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 69

The Lionel Gelber Prize

2015 Fi n a l i s t s

ANNIVERSARY25

th

“THE WORLD’S MOST IMPORTANT PRIZE FOR NON-FICTION”

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The Good War:

Why We Couldn’t Win the War

or the Peace in Afghanistan

JACK FAIRWEATHER

Basic Books

The role of ignorance and waste in the pursuit of vague and naïve goals is arresting in this

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The Last Empire:

The Final Days of the Soviet Union

SERHII PLOKHY

Basic Books

$ WKULOOLQJ VWRU\ RI FORVH FDOOV DQG PLJKW KDYH beens, where the roles of Ukraine and the United States White House appear in fresh

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The Lionel Gelber Prize is presented by The Lionel Gelber Foundation, in partnership with the Munk School of

Global Affairs at the University of Toronto and Foreign Policy magazine.

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Canadian scholar

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Gelber, the Prize is awarded annually for the best book

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My Promised Land:

The Triumph and Tragedy of Israel

ARI SHAVIT

Scribe Publications

Hard-hitting and big-hearted, Shavit writes poetically and passionately about one of the

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Age of Ambition:

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EVAN OSNOS

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Thirteen Days in September:

Carter, Begin, and Sadat at Camp David

LAWRENCE WRIGHT

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THE LIONEL GELBER

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MAPPA MUNDI

The costs of Washington’s scramble to stop Iran from going nuclear. | P. 72

observationdeck

ECONOMICS	ENERGY	NATIONAL SECURITY	BOOKS CULTURE	THE FIXER
Vladimir Putin’s	The U.S. may soon	Reading al Qaeda’s	Are Westerners	Dimitri Bit-Sulei-
biggest mistake	collide with oil-	online magazine	averse to contem-	man on where to
might be protect-	thirsty China in the	could land you in a	porary Russian	bathe and what to
ing the ruble. | P. 74	Middle East. | P. 76	British prison. | P. 78	literature? | P. 84	eat in Tbilisi. | P. 86

Illustration by ANDY REMENTER

FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 71

mappa mundi

byDAVID ROTHKOPF

TehranTrigger

Isthepossibilityofa nuclearIranathreat,a distraction,orboth?

Onceuponatime,notermevoked modernitylike“theAtomicAge.”It containedthepromiseofharnessingthepoweroftheatomforgood andforill.Unleashingthesecrets oftheatomwaswhatseparatedthe world’smostadvancedandpowerfulnationsfromtherest.

ThisDamocleanerawasushered in70yearsago,onJuly16,1945, withtheTrinitynucleartestinNew Mexico’sJornadadelMuertodesert.Thenametranslatesto“Dead Man’sJourney”—fitting,because thedetonationtriggeredanuclear armsracethatmadepalpablethe dark threat of planetary Armageddon.Asisthecasewithothers whogrewupinthe1960s,some ofmymostacute,enduringmemories are of a childhood shaped by nuclear fears. I was 6 years

oldduringtheCubanmissilecrisisandremembergoingtobedat nightunsettledbytheair-raiddrillswerehearsedatschoolandby the worry I saw in my parents eyes as they watched the evening news. A next-door neighbor built a fallout shelter, and I remember being deeply disturbed by my parents’ speculation that we wouldn’t be invited into it, in the event of a disaster, because we were Jewish. Seeing civil-defense posters and sirens atop telephonepolesleftmedailywithaknotinmystomach.Thefamous Lyndon B. Johnson campaign ad suggesting that electing Barry GoldwaterwouldbringAmericaclosertonuclearwar—theonein which a little girl plays in the flowers, oblivious to the imminent bloomofamushroomcloud—waspoliticallye ectivebecauseit capturedthegestaltoftheerasoperfectly.Itonlyranonce,butit lingered in many people’s minds for years to come.

72 MARCH | APRIL 2015

Illustration by MATTHEW HOLLISTER

OBSERVATION DECK

ident Barack Obama during a speech in Prague that he would make the elimination of nukes a central goal of his administration.Andfewthingshavedominated 2015thusfarlikee ortstokeepIranfrom acquiring the bomb.

The debate around Iran, in particular, reveals much about the current phase of the nuclear age, underscoring that lofty ambitions,suchasthoseObamasketched outinPrague,arenowherenearrealization and may never be. Although deterrence stillworksincertaincircumstances—India andPakistanhaveavoidedmajorconflict, forinstance,andIsrael’sneighborsareless

IRAN REVEALS MUCH ABOUT

THE CURRENT PHASE OF THE NUCLEAR AGE, UNDERSCORING THAT LOFTY AMBITIONS, SUCH AS THOSE OBAMA SKETCHED OUT IN PRAGUE, ARE NOWHERE NEAR REALIZATION AND MAY NEVER BE.

DecadesoftheColdWarkepttheseanxietiesalivebutalsosomehowallayedthem. Deterrence, it turned out, worked. The United States and the Soviet Union never embarked on World War III because the costofapotentialconflictwassohigh.Fear kept the peace, a perverse bargain. When push came to shove it was in proxy wars. Buteventhen,theprospectofnuclearescalation created an incentive to maintain conflicts within limits and to seek solutions to disputes that threatened to get out of hand.

WiththeendoftheColdWar,therewas hope that the world might consign such bleak strategies to history and negotiate away its weapons. But instead, a di erent reality has emerged. Nuclear issues remain as urgent as ever. In the past few years, the world has been shaken by the Fukushimadisaster,disturbedbynuclear saberrattlinginNorthKorea,unnervedby weapons security in Pakistan, and stirred by the promise of a then-new U.S. Pres-

inclinedtoattackit—anewsetofproblems has emerged. Ukraine illustrates one of them. If a nuclear power is willing to be bolder than another, it can take limited, conventionalactionswithoutfearofmajor pushback.Inotherwords,Russia,astrugglingshadowofaformersuperpower,can maintaininfluenceinitsnearabroadthat would be impossible were it not for Moscow’s nuclear arsenal.

But there is also the threat of a country breaking out from the Nuclear NonProliferationTreaty(NPT),whichattempts tokeepweaponsinthehandsoftheoriginalfivenuclearnations(theUnitedStates, Britain, China, Russia, and France). Aspirantnuclearpowers,suchasNorthKorea, havefoundthatignoringthisinternational treatycanpayo :Beingwilling,orseenas willing, to flaunt such agreements grants negotiatingleverage.AsformerU.S.Presi- dentBillClintonsaid—inanerawhenthe West regularly cut deals by o ering aid to North Korea in order to forestall Pyong-

yang’s bomb-building efforts—“North Korea is a country whose cash crop has beenmissilesandweapons.”But,ofcourse, theHermitKingdom’sregimealsolearned anotherimportantlesson:Onceacountry has nuclear weapons, there is very little the rest of the world can do about it. (The greatestflawintheNPTisthatitlacksany e ectiveenforcementmechanismagainst violators.) Thus, Kim Jong Un’s government, like those of Pakistan, India, and Israel,arguablyhasgainedinfluencefrom having an arsenal.

While Iran’s foray toward joining the nuclear club undoubtedly has been inspired by these other countries’ experiences, it is a special case, full of apparent contradictions. On the one hand, some national security experts argue that a nuclear Iran would be contained by nuclear forces—the United States and Israel—poised to deliver deathblows within minutes of a first strike. In other words,anynuclearactionbyTehranwould be suicidal.

On the other hand, many observers worry that a nuclear Iran could take the worldtoaproliferationtippingpoint.Given the tensions and rivalries in the Middle East, Iran getting the bomb might trigger an arms race in the region. And with each new player in the nuclear game, risksmountthatweaponswillfallintothe wrong hands, perhaps those of terrorists. The Middle East is the kind of place where roiling instability could open the doortonuclearmiscalculationsormisadventures, and the notion of a suicide-em- bracing terrorist group having any sort of nuclear capability is especially chilling. Putsimply,anuclearTehrancouldfundamentally alter the calculus of the nuclear

CONTINUED ON PAGE 83

FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 73

economics

by DEBORA L. SPAR

TheAlmightyRuble

VladimirPutinisjustthe latestinalonglineof nationalleaderswitha sentimental,ill-fated attachmenttotheir countries’currencies.

OnecanalmostexcuseVladimir Putin for trying so hard. This is a man, after all, who famously builthispublicimageinparton featsofderring-do:ridingshirt- lessacrossSiberia,hang-gliding withmigratingbirds,andreleasingacagedleopardintoanatural reserve. So perhaps it isn’t surprisingthattheRussianpresident wouldleapwithsimilarbrashness intohiscountry’seconomiccrisis, precipitatedbytumblingglobal oilpricesandWesternsanctions. Whynotusesheerfinancialforce towrestlethedepreciatingruble backtosafety?

At 1 a.m. Moscow time on Dec. 16, Russia’s central bank announced a massive hike in the country’s interest rate, from 10.5 to 17 percent. Early indicators of the government’s move weremildlypositive,withtherubleopeningthenextmorningup 10 percent against the dollar. Within hours, though, the weight of the foreign exchange market reasserted itself, hammering the rubletolessthanhalfitsstartingvaluein2014andraisingthedual spectersofinflationandrecession.Overthefollowingweeks,Putin andhislieutenantsprovedalmostwhollyincapableofcontrolling the two economic forces that mattered most to them: As of midJanuary,spotpricesforBrentEuropeancrudeoilhoverednearthe historicallylowlevelof$46abarrel,andtherublewasstubbornly slumpedat65tothedollar.

It’sclearwhyfallingoilpricesandadecliningrublewouldstrike fear into even the leopard-friendly Putin. The Russian economy remainsoverwhelminglydependentonoilandnaturalgas,which in2013accountedfor68percentofthecountry’sexportrevenues

74 MARCH | APRIL 2015

Illustration by MATTHEW HOLLISTER

OBSERVATION DECK

		andasaggingeconomythatcontributedto
		theunfurlingoftheGreatDepression.Halfa
		centurylater,U.S.PresidentRichardNixon
		struggledtomaintainthedollar’sposition	was clear: Intervention would not work.
		astheworld’sreservecurrencydespitethe	Thatsameyear,economistJohnMaynard
		growingfinancialcosttotheUnitedStates	KeyneshadwarnedthatreturningBritainto
		of doing so. And Mexican President José	thegoldstandardatanartificiallyinflated
		LópezPortillopledgedto“defendthepeso	rate would lead inevitably to unemploy-
		likeadog”shortlybeforebeingforcedbyhis	ment,classconflict,andprolongedstrikes.
		country’scollapsingeconomytoletthecur-	Yet Churchill proceeded, unwilling to let
		rency float, and plunge. In all these cases	the pound fall below what he considered
		andmanyotherslikethem(Russiain1998,	itsrightfullevel.
			For Putin, too, sitting by as the ruble
			declined was probably never an option—
	LEADERSOFTEN ASSOCIATE		andstillisn’t.Helikelywillkeepindulging
			in e orts to pump up the ruble and draw
	STRONG CURRENCIES WITH		down Russia’s hard-currency reserves
			accordingly.(Inasurprisemove,thecentral
	NATIONAL STRENGTH AND THUS
			bankcutinterestratesinlateJanuary—but
	VIEW DECLINING CURRENCIES AS		onlyby2percentagepoints.)Becausenei-
	INSULTS TO THEIR PROWESS.		ther of these measures will do anything to
			redressthecountry’sunderlyingeconomic
			woes,however,Russiawillprobablybecon-
			signedtomuddlingthroughuntilglobaloil
	and50percentofitsfederalbudget.Dimin-	Indonesia in 1997, the United Kingdom in	priceseventuallyriseagain.
	ishing global energy prices could lead to a	1992), intervention led solely and inevita-	What Russia should do is diversify its
	4.5 percent GDP contraction in 2015,	blytomalaise:higherinflationrates,slower	economyawayfromanythingthatinvolves
	according to the country’s central bank. A	growth, rising unemployment, and capi-	extractingresourcesoutofthegroundand
	decliningrublewouldsimilarlywallopthe	talflight.	sellingthematvolatile,internationallyset
	country’s holders of hard-currency debt,	Why such a long line of clearly ill-fated	prices.ThecountryshouldfollowtheNor-
	$130billionofwhichcomeduethisyear.	policies? Probably because, like many of	wegian example of isolating energy reve-
	What’snotclearishowPutinandhiscol-	their citizens, national leaders often seem	nuesinasovereignwealthfund,investing
	leagues could realistically have expected	tofeelaphysical,sentimentalattachment	the proceeds for the long term, and insu-
	to achieve anything by hiking the inter-	to their currencies. It’s an odd vestige,	lating its broader economy from depen-
	est rate. Unless the increase was intended	arguably, in a world marked by increasing	dence on commodity markets. It should
	to attract foreign capital—a very unlikely	cross-borderflowsofforeignexchange,but	considerstrategieslikethoseemployedin
	event—itcouldonlyhaveledtohigherinfla-	apowerfulonenonetheless.Intheory,the	Chile,wherecopperrevenuesarecarefully
	tionandgreaterdownwardpressureonthe	value of any currency is an impersonal,	invested in a broader range of industries
	ruble.Thecountry’sinternationaldebtwas	apolitical fact—the result of supply and	and where export earnings during booms
	destined to become harder to service; the	demandintheopenmarketplace.Inprac-	arereliablysavedforlessfelicitousdays.
	pricesofimportedgoodswerelikelytorise;	tice,though,leadersoftenassociatestrong	Until that happens, Russia and its
	and Russian holders of foreign debt were	currencieswithnationalstrengthmoregen-	chest-thumping leader will be caught in
	going to face di culties in accessing for-	erally and thus view declining currencies	a cage of their own making, acting sym-
	eigncurrencies.	(and particularly rapidly declining ones)	bolically but without any real e ect. And
	Yet Putin is hardly the first national	asinsultstotheirprowess.	the country will remain on the long list of
	leader to chase a stronger currency at the	Asaresult,intheopticsofintervention,	states making policies based on nostalgia
	risk of a weaker economy. In the 1920s,	anationalleaderisseekingtoconveyacer-	ratherthansense.	Θ
	Winston Churchill drew down his coun-	tainelementofpower-broking—todisplay
	try’s reserve holdings to bolster the Brit-	muscle and an implicit promise that the	DEBORA L. SPAR (@deboraspar) is a colum-
	ish pound, long after the nexus of global	state is not being abandoned to ruinous	nist for FOREIGN POLICY, the president
	financialpowerhadshiftedfromBritainto	outside forces. Think again of Churchill,	of Barnard College, and the author, most
	theUnitedStates.Theresultwasamarked	whoin1925riskedBritain’sgoldtopropup	recently, of WonderWomen:Sex,Power,
	declineinBritishindustrialcompetitiveness	thebelovedpound.Theeconomicwisdom	andtheQuestforPerfection.

FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 75

energy

by KEITH JOHNSON

China’sThirst

Oilistransforming thecountry’sforeign policy.Canthe UnitedStateshandle theconsequences?

Formuchofitshistory,Chinahas madeapointofsteeringclearof othercountries’internala airs. But that changed late last year, whentheMiddleKingdomentered intotheinternationalarenaina way it hadn’t before, offering bothmoneyandmilitarymight tofighttheterrorsoftheIslamic State.MorethanChina’stypical muscle flexing, these actions— likemuchofthecountry’sforeign policyinthepastdecade—canbe tracedbacktoagrowingtrend:an urgentandgluttonousappetitefor importedenergy,specificallyoil.

Thisraisesoneofthebig,loomingquestionsthatwillhelpdefine relationsbetweenWashingtonand Beijinginthedecadestocome:As theshapeofChina’senergyaddictionstartstoresemblethatofthe UnitedStates,willChina’sglobal rolefollowsuit?

In just a single generation, thankstounprecedentedeconomic growth, China went from being self-sufficient in crude oil (producingwhatitconsumed)tonearly

displacingtheUnitedStatesasthefuel’sbiggestimporter.In2014, Chinaimportedabout6.2millionbarrelsperdayonaverage,while theUnitedStatestookinroughly7.4million.InDecember,Chinese oil imports topped 7 million barrels a day for the first time, while U.S. crude production continued to increase to more than 9 millionbarrelsaday,virtuallyashighasithaseverbeen.

Where and how China gets all that oil has become a headache forthecountry’sleadership,nowexperiencingmanyofthesame problemsthathavebedeviledU.S.presidentssinceRichardNixon. BeijingislearningthelessonofOPEC’s1973-1974oilembargo—that steadysuppliesofoil,especiallyfromtheMiddleEast,arecritical forsteadyeconomicgrowth.Chinanowimportsabout60percent ofitsoil,andthelistofkeysuppliersincludessomeoftheworld’s mostvolatilecountries:IranandIraqand,outsidetheMiddleEast, SudanandVenezuela.Allthesestateshavehadoiloutputdisrupted byviolence,terrorism,dysfunction,orinternationalsanctions.

This increasing reliance on unstable countries has spurred

76 MARCH | APRIL 2015

Illustration by MATTHEW HOLLISTER

OBSERVATION DECK

		missile,andatriplingofitsdestroyers,frig-
		ates, and attack submarines. Some of this
		progress has been on display since 2008,
		whenChinadeployedlong-termanti-piracy	this. U.S. o cials have long pushed China
		patrolsinthesealaneso thecoastofSoma-	topullitsweightinternationally;President
		liaandintheGulfofAden—itsfirstoverseas	Barack Obama complains that China has
		naval mission in 600 years. And in a step	been a “free rider” for decades, benefiting
		intendedtoeliminateitsseabornevulner-	immensely from global trade and energy
		abilities, China opened a gas and oil pipe-	flows made possible by the U.S. Navy. In
		lineacrossMyanmarinlateJanuary2015.	thatsense,ChinesepeacekeepersinAfrica
		China’s new oil-fueled engagements	and China’s anti-piracy patrols have been
		saw a definitive shift toward the Mid-	welcomed as a sign that Beijing is becom-
			ing, in the words of former Deputy Secre-
			taryofStateRobertZoellick,a“responsible
	ASCHINAGETSBIGENOUGH		stakeholder”intheinternationalsystem.
			Butthereisanimportantandpotentially
	TO PULL ITS OWN WEIGHT, IT		dangerousflipside,particularlyintheMid-
			dle East: As China gets big enough to pull
	WILL ALSO GET BIG ENOUGH TO		its own weight, it will also get big enough
	ACTUALLY THROW IT AROUND.		to actually throw it around. This reality is
			alreadybecomingapparentinChina’sback-
			yard,whereair-defensezonesandbristling
			gunboatsarehelpingBeijingpushterritorial
	China to undertake its first-ever overseas	dle East when, in November 2014, Bei-	claimsagainstsmallerneighbors.Wherethe
	deployment of combat forces in a peace-	jing offered Washington money (some	Chinesemilitaryfeelscomfortableoperat-
	keeping role—in Africa, where China has	$10 million) to aid displaced persons in	ing—intheSouthChinaSea,forinstance—
	long been involved in investment, infra-	Iraq. A month later, it o ered Iraq mili-	ithasrepeatedlyandrecklesslychallenged
	structure,andagricultureprograms.In2013,	tary support in the form of airstrikes for	U.S.aircraftandsurfacevessels.Onefearfor
	Beijing sent170 troopsto Mali to helppre-	combating the Islamic State. Coming	Washingtonisthatthisbehaviorwillreach
	ventthecountry’stumultfromspillinginto	from a country that has long viewed U.S.	theMiddleEast.ThelastthingtheUnited
	its oil-rich neighbors, such as Algeria and	military interventions as the sharp end	Stateswantstoseeisitsfreedomtomaneu-
	Libya. A year later, in another first, China	of nefarious Western plots, these offers	verintheregioncurtailedbyanactiveand
	leaped into peace talks between warring	were startling. But they were in line with	capableChina.
	factionsinSouthSudan.	open discussions by top o cials, includ-	Granted, that’s not going to happen
	Butsecuringoilproductionisn’tChina’s	ing Foreign Minister Wang Yi, about an	overnight.UnliketheUnitedStates,China
	onlyworry;shipping,ofcourse,isalsoakey	increasingly prominent Chinese role in	doesn’t have formal alliances in the Mid-
	concern.Morethan80percentofBeijing’s	theregion.Asacaseinpoint,Beijing’snew	dleEastorairandnavalbasesnearby—not
	importedoilhastowinditswaythrougha	Middle East envoy is an expert in Israeli-	yet,anyway.Anddespiterecentadvances,
	globalchokepoint,theStraitofMalacca—a	Palestinianpeacetalks—asignthatChinais	theChinesenavyisstilldecadesawayfrom
	channelnearSingaporethatshrinkstoless	preparingforfull-boreinvolvementinone	matching U.S. firepower. But that doesn’t
	thantwomileswideandhandlesmorethan	oftheMiddleEast’smostintractableissues.	meanthatChinawillcedetheplayingfield.
	15millionbarrelsofoilshipmentsaday.Ina	The change in China’s foreign policy	It still has plenty of leverage: economic
	2003speech,HuJintao,thenChina’spres-	comesjustastheUnitedStatesistryingto	influence,ano-strings-attachedapproach
	ident,articulatedthe“Malaccadilemma”:	detangle itself from a decade of troubled	toaidandinvestment,andanincreasingly
	thefearthat“certainmajorpowers”—code	wars.AfullwithdrawalfromtheMiddleEast	proactivediplomaticcorpsbackedbystrong
	for the United States—could cut China’s	willbeimpossible,giventheeruptionofthe	leadership.TheUnitedStatesmaynothave
	energylifelineinthisnarrowpassage,mir-	IslamicStateandalong-standingpromise	to confront a Chinese carrier-strike group
	roring what America did to Japan during	to protect energy supplies for America’s	inthePersianGulfjustyet,butitstillneeds
	WorldWarII.Inturn,Huacceleratedanaval	allies.Consequently,theUnitedStateswill	to prepare for cohabitation or collision—
	modernizationprogram,whichhascontin-	needtofigureouthowtoworkwithaconfi-	orboth.	Θ
	ued under President Xi Jinping, with the	dentChina—notjustinWashington’spivot
	launch of China’s first aircraft carrier, the	toAsia,butinBeijing’spivottothewest.	KEITH JOHNSON (@KFJ_FP) covers the geo-
	introduction of its first anti-ship ballistic	Inaway,Washingtonhasbeenaskingfor	politics of energy for FOREIGN POLICY.

FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 77

national security

by JAMES BAMFORD

BlockingInspiration

TheUnitedKingdomandAustraliahope

tosquashAQAP’sslickonlinemagazine

withextremecensorshiplaws.

CouldtheUnitedStatesbenext?

In pictures, Nicholas Teausantisthinandgaunt,withlarge black-rimmedglassesandashort, scrawnypatchofhaironhisface thatismoreofafurrychinstrap thanabeard.Fortwoyears,hewas amemberoftheNationalGuard andalsoastudentatSanJoaquin DeltaCollege.Buthisfuture,ultimately,wasn’ttobefoundineither school or government duties. A singlefatherwholivedwithhis mother in Acampo, California, a tiny Central Valley hamlet of 341 people,Teausant wanted to becomeaterrorist.

Hisradicalizationbeganafew years ago. Around the spring of 2013,heconsideredbecominga “lonewolf”terroristafterreadingaletterwrittenbyOmarAbdel RahmaninInspire,anEnglish-lan- guagemagazinepublishedonline byalQaedaintheArabianPeninsula(AQAP).Producedaboutthree timesayear,Inspireissnarkyand slick; it models itself on glossy Americanmagazines.

Inspire o ers how-to guides for building bombs and staging terrorist attacks, and it gives space to famous voices in the global jihadi movement, including the BlindSheikh,asAbdelRahmanisknown. (He was convicted in 1995 for planning to bombU.S.targets,includingtheU.N.headquarters and the Holland Tunnel.) In his letter in Inspire, Abdel Rahman outlined terrible conditions at the federal supermax prison in Florence, Colorado, where he was being held at the time; he wrote that he was placed in isolation and also speculatedthatpeopleweretryingtopoison him. According to a federal criminal

complaint, the article prompted Teausant to send a text message to a friend. “[W]e HAVE TO DO SOMETHING NOW!” he wrote. “I want this to end someone or something needs to happen. I’ll do anythingpossible.WeneedtoplanIn[sic]person and get together and I’ll do the acting I’ll be the pawn.”

Itwasn’ttheonlytimeTeausant—raised Catholic,helaterconvertedtoIslam—had suggestedaction.Heoncedisclosedtothe samecontactthathewasconsidering“hitting”LosAngelesonNewYear’sDay2014. “Don’t go to LA Anytime soo[n],” he texted. “Please trust me on this...and if you

78 MARCH | APRIL 2015

Illustration by MATTHEW HOLLISTER