Лабораторные работы Савенко
.pdfRegression ( ).
( 3.7):
3.7
.
Variables ( ).
.
,
.
R2/13 . 21 3), .
3.8
.
3.8
31
,
( 3.9).
3.9
Partial correlations ( ),
». ( 3.10).
3.10
3.9 3.10:
-Dep. Var ( ) – (VAR2);
-No of cases ( ) – , n = 25;
-Multiple R ( . R) –
;
-R2 – ;
-Adjusted R2 ( .R2) - c
;
32
-F – F – ;
-df (cc) – F – ;
-– ;
-Partial correlations - .
-Std. Error of estimate – ,
;
-Intercept ( ) – ,
b0 ;
- Std.Error ( ) – b0
;
-t(df) and p-value – t- .
2
0.84. 0: 2/13 =0
=0.0, ,
. 0.7.
, .
,
, ,
, .
.
.
: r12/3 = 0.113 r23/1 = 0.827.
. r12=0.26, r23=0.84
.
33
bji/(…) ji .
( 3.11)
Regression summary ( )
3.9.
3.11
3.11 : 0=62.55,
21 =0.422, 23=2.093.
3.
.
.
.
4..
1.2 –
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1,2,3 |
16 |
2,3,4 |
2 |
1,2,4 |
17 |
2,3,5 |
3 |
1,2,5 |
18 |
2,3,6 |
4 |
1,2,6 |
19 |
2,3,7 |
5 |
1,2,7 |
20 |
2,4,5 |
6 |
1,3,4 |
21 |
2,4,6 |
7 |
1,3,5 |
22 |
2,4,7 |
8 |
1,3,6 |
23 |
2,5,6 |
9 |
1,3,7 |
24 |
2,5,7 |
10 |
1,4,5 |
25 |
2,6,7 |
11 |
1,4,6 |
26 |
3,4,5 |
12 |
1,4,7 |
27 |
3,4,6 |
13 |
1,5,6 |
28 |
3,4,7 |
14 |
1,5,7 |
29 |
3,5,6 |
15 |
1,6,7 |
30 |
3,5,7 |
34
1.3 –
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
1 |
73 |
48 |
99 |
31 |
284 |
68 |
279 |
2 |
69 |
40 |
83 |
28 |
265 |
47 |
245 |
3 |
72 |
52 |
106 |
30 |
298 |
40 |
354 |
4 |
72 |
50 |
107 |
23 |
264 |
35 |
212 |
5 |
65 |
39 |
79 |
25 |
232 |
60 |
323 |
6 |
67 |
49 |
100 |
25 |
272 |
37 |
285 |
7 |
56 |
38 |
80 |
25 |
292 |
41 |
240 |
8 |
70 |
47 |
96 |
27 |
245 |
46 |
361 |
9 |
63 |
41 |
98 |
31 |
274 |
46 |
236 |
10 |
64 |
50 |
97 |
25 |
256 |
53 |
246 |
11 |
70 |
52 |
92 |
28 |
291 |
43 |
357 |
12 |
67 |
36 |
90 |
25 |
290 |
53 |
361 |
13 |
60 |
55 |
108 |
30 |
257 |
54 |
343 |
14 |
63 |
43 |
107 |
28 |
258 |
50 |
390 |
15 |
80 |
45 |
96 |
28 |
309 |
45 |
208 |
16 |
71 |
56 |
86 |
31 |
257 |
50 |
301 |
17 |
74 |
45 |
98 |
23 |
316 |
25 |
306 |
18 |
68 |
55 |
97 |
28 |
251 |
44 |
334 |
1.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
||
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
19 |
65 |
63 |
128 |
26 |
278 |
54 |
342 |
20 |
73 |
47 |
88 |
26 |
268 |
56 |
274 |
21 |
57 |
48 |
117 |
28 |
273 |
48 |
336 |
22 |
71 |
55 |
110 |
27 |
280 |
44 |
277 |
23 |
66 |
37 |
94 |
25 |
244 |
49 |
320 |
24 |
76 |
38 |
82 |
26 |
243 |
50 |
278 |
25 |
70 |
46 |
97 |
27 |
269 |
46 |
266 |
26 |
68 |
41 |
91 |
28 |
255 |
46 |
294 |
27 |
74 |
42 |
118 |
27 |
229 |
47 |
308 |
28 |
69 |
53 |
87 |
29 |
272 |
39 |
271 |
29 |
68 |
57 |
104 |
24 |
263 |
49 |
228 |
30 |
71 |
39 |
89 |
23 |
249 |
44 |
414 |
31 |
60 |
46 |
71 |
27 |
252 |
49 |
324 |
32 |
56 |
56 |
86 |
27 |
229 |
53 |
348 |
33 |
71 |
47 |
97 |
28 |
284 |
44 |
211 |
34 |
68 |
51 |
89 |
26 |
265 |
47 |
356 |
35 |
66 |
52 |
101 |
29 |
298 |
51 |
350 |
36 |
60 |
50 |
93 |
26 |
264 |
56 |
350 |
35
37 |
70 |
47 |
112 |
|
232 |
39 |
301 |
38 |
69 |
48 |
67 |
27 |
249 |
46 |
338 |
39 |
72 |
54 |
97 |
29 |
292 |
57 |
297 |
40 |
70 |
52 |
82 |
24 |
245 |
45 |
268 |
41 |
61 |
47 |
81 |
27 |
274 |
55 |
294 |
42 |
62 |
57 |
92 |
25 |
256 |
46 |
309 |
43 |
63 |
53 |
90 |
29 |
291 |
52 |
284 |
44 |
71 |
48 |
110 |
29 |
290 |
45 |
276 |
45 |
65 |
46 |
96 |
25 |
257 |
43 |
289 |
46 |
70 |
43 |
110 |
24 |
258 |
48 |
234 |
47 |
70 |
49 |
97 |
30 |
309 |
50 |
298 |
48 |
68 |
31 |
102 |
25 |
257 |
44 |
264 |
49 |
78 |
40 |
101 |
31 |
231 |
38 |
302 |
50 |
66 |
49 |
112 |
27 |
288 |
68 |
323 |
4..
1.?
2. , ,
.
3.?
4.?
5.?
6.?
7.?
8.?
1.., .
: . - .: , 1998. -1022 .
2.., . STATISTICA -
Windows. - .: . " ", 1998. -608 .
3.., , .
: . - .: , 1998, -352
36
4.
:
( ).
,
. ,
,
.
.
,
, .
.
.
(t) – (0, t).
1=t1; 2 = t2 - t1; 3 = t3 – t2; … .
.
t:
W(t) = (t)] (4.1)
, W(t) - .
,
(t) =dW(t)/dt, |
(4.2) |
.
4.1.2
.
.
(t) - (0, t)
(t),
(4.2).
. t=0
. n(t) i (i=1,N) (0, t).
37
~ |
N |
(4.3) |
w(t) = å(ni (t + Dt) - ni (t)) /(N ×Dt). |
i=1
,
.
1, 2, ... ( ,
f(t))
∞ |
|
(4.4) |
q = M [xi ] = òt × f (t)dt, |
(i = 1,2,...) . |
|
0 |
|
|
,
= 1/ .
,
, N .
, t.
~ |
(4.5) |
q = NN ×t . |
åni (t)
i=1
.
.
( , ,
.).
-
(
- ).
G(t)
t1 :
G(t1 ) = P{TB < t1}; |
tB = M[TB ]. |
(4.6) |
|||||
: |
|
||||||
~ |
l(t1 ) |
|
~ |
m |
|
||
G(t1 ) = |
; |
t B = å |
t Bi |
. |
(4.7) |
||
|
|
||||||
|
m |
|
i=1 m |
|
l(t1 ) - , t1; m –
; t Bi - i o .
.
.
K ,
. ,
K = |
q |
. |
(4.8) |
|
|||
|
q +t B |
|
38
,
, N
NP (tX ) ,
,
t.
:
~ |
NP |
(t) |
(4.9) |
|
K = |
||||
|
|
N
K (t)
,
,
,
t. (4.9) ,
:
K (t) = |
q |
× P(tX ,t), |
(4.10) |
|
q +t B |
||||
|
|
|
P(tX , t) -
(tx, tx + t) , tx .
:
K (t) = |
q |
×e−λt |
(4.11) |
|
q +t B |
||||
|
|
|
4.2
MS Excel (
MathCad) .
1. ni(t) ,
, :
|
|
|
|
t, |
|
|
|
|
|
50 |
100 |
150 |
200 |
250 |
300 |
1 |
n1(t) |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
n2(t) |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
n3(t) |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
n4(t) |
2 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
n5(t) |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
.
(t1= 150 .) (t2= 250 .) - .
39
2. 1000 . : 1)
3 ; 2) - 0 ; 3) - 5
; 4) 2 .
~
. θ .
3. 7 . t i, i=1,2,…,7, :
i, |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
t i, . |
1,5 |
6 |
2 |
2,5 |
3 |
3 |
2,5 |
: 1) ,
t1=2 ;
2) .
4.
K (t) t =200 ., :
- , =10-4 .-1;
=300 ; =10,5 .
,
, t 0 200 .
5.
K (t) ,
=480 ., K (t =0 .)=0.96, K (t=100
.)=0,95.
4.3 :
-;
-;
-;
.
40