Sutyrin lopullinen julkaistava
.pdf
Russian accession to the WTO
www.worldec.ru
At the moment (Oct.2012) 6 anti-dumping and 3 safeguards investigations are carried out by Eurasian Economic Commission against producers from China, India, Germany, Italy, Poland and Turkey
According to Maxim Medvedkov, Russia “has questions” to about 25 WTO members with respect to their trade measures towards Russian companies and their products
21
Russian accession to the WTO
www.worldec.ru
New threats for foreign businesspeople :
-Growth of unemployment;
-Access for Russian companies to the WTO safeguards and international dispute settlement mechanism;
-Extra pressure on Russian companies to enhance their efficiency
Russia and WTO |
22 |
Russian accession to the WTO
www.worldec.ru
Gary Becker model (modification 1):
(1 – )b >?< pfu (2),
where p – probability of a lobbying to fail;
b – utility of protectionist measures;
u – utility of “internal” steps aiming to promote competitiveness;
fu – share of “internal” steps utility lost as a result of protectionist measures.
Russia and WTO |
23 |
Russian accession to the WTO
www.worldec.ru
Gary Becker model (modification 2 ):
C(lob.)
---------------- >?< C(“int.”),
P
where C(lob.) – costs of lobbying;
C(“int.”) – costs of “internal” steps aiming to promote competitiveness;
P – probability of lobbying to succeed.
Russia and WTO |
24 |
Russian accession to the WTO
www.worldec.ru
Uncertainty with respect to repercussions is pretty high:
Significance of “RF regional dimension”
Russia and WTO |
25 |
Russian accession to the WTO
www.worldec.ru
Uncertainty with respect to repercussions is pretty high: Significance of “RF regional dimension” Heterogeneity of Baltic Sea region
Russia and WTO |
27 |
Importance of Russia to the BSR countries in 2011
|
|
Share of Russia in imports of … |
Share of Russia in exports of … |
|
|
Denmark |
2 % |
2 % |
|
|
Estonia |
8 % |
11 % |
|
|
Finland |
19 % |
9 % |
|
|
Germany |
5 % |
3 % |
|
|
Latvia |
10 % |
11 % |
|
|
Lithuania |
32 % |
17 % |
|
|
Norway |
2 % |
1 % |
|
|
Poland |
12 % |
5 % |
|
|
Sweden |
6 % |
2 % |
|
Sources: national statistics 2012
Russian accession to the WTO
www.worldec.ru
RF foreign trade turnover (Jan.-Aug. 2012 / Jan.-Aug.2011)
Total |
103.3 |
|
|
Germany |
107.2 |
|
|
Poland |
103.4 |
|
|
Finland |
88.9 |
|
|
Members of the Customs Union |
94.9 |
|
|
29
Russian accession to the WTO
www.worldec.ru
Uncertainty with respect to repercussions is pretty high: Significance of “RF regional dimension” Heterogeneity of Baltic Sea region
Overall uncertainty of macroeconomic development on general
(between 2009-2012 fluctuations of RUR/Euro exchange rate 6%)
Changes in trade regime might bring ambivalent results:
instead of moving retail prices down liberalization could generate extra profits for middlemen
Russia and WTO |
30 |