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222 восток (oriens) 2013 № 2

s u m m a r i e s o f m a j o r a r t i c l e s

A.V. Akimov. Methods of Analysis of the Long-term Trends of Global Development

Forecast of population number, demand for fuel and energy, arable land and fresh water up to 2100 is calculated for Western, Slavic-Orthodox, Confucian, Japanese, Hindu, Islamic, African, Latin American modern civilizations. On the basis of these calculations future scenarios for eastern civilizations and world system are worked out.

Key words: long-term forecast of world development, population dynamics, natural resources, modern civilizations, future scenarios.

A.I. Yakovlev. The Reforms as a Means for the Management of Development

The beginning of the 21st century is marked by a severe crisis of the world system. The crisis stems from the unsustainability of the model of socio-economic and cultural development. Here comes the need for modernization conceived as the development of the new model of social system that incorporates the elements of its traditional cultural heritage.

Key words: Reform, crisis, modernization, tradition, system of values.

A.A. Ayvasyan. Fashoda Crisis of 1898 and Russian Diplomacy

The Fashoda crisis is widely known as a serious colonial conflict between Great Britain and France. Diplomatic battle for domination in Sudan at first sight, the Fashoda crisis was in reality provoked by France willing to revise the Egyptian question. Russia, France’s ally, fed French plans for revision in Egypt but at the most important moment, when France was facing a potential war with England, Russian diplomacy stayed neutral. Finally the Fashoda incident caused a crisis in Franco-Russian relations. Disappointed by Russian indifference, France began to converge with Great Britain: in 1904 the entente cordiale was signed by these two powers.

Key words: Fashoda crisis, Egyptian question, Russian diplomacy, Le Quai d’Orsay, FrancoRussian alliance, entente cordiale.

M.S. Kalandarova. Parsis and Power (the End of the 19th – the Beginning of the 20th Century)

Parsis are a small prosperity religious community (about 85 000) concentrating in and around the city of Mumbai (previously known as Bombay). This microscopic fragment of Indian mosaic played significant role in social and economical life of India in the 19th – the 20th centuries. With the founding the Indian National Congress (INK) in 1885, Parsis were involved in political struggle.

Key words: Zoroastrianism, Parsis, Politics, Indian National Congress (INK).

E.V. Malyshev. Army and Military Building-up in Iraq 1968–1988

This article is dedicated to the history of military build-up in Iraq and employment of the Iraqi armed forces during the reign of Baath party and Saddam Husain. The paper discloses the complex system of political, economic and social causes for transformation of Iraq into the pretender for the military-political hegemony in the Gulf Region. It reveals the process of military build-up in Iraq, i.e. system of civic and military undertakings, such as creating armed forces infrastructure and inventory, increasing manpower, ideological indoctrination of the masses. Article shows the Iraq particular expertise in the military build-up and briefly underlines Iran-Iraq war experience.

Key words: armed forces, military build-up, Middle East, Iraq, Saddam Husain’s regime, Iran-Iraq

war.

V.N. Kirpitchenko. The Egyptian novel on the eve of “Тhe Revolution of the 25 January” 2011.

The article is an attempt to regard the Egyptian novel of recent years from the point of view of public concern which might be interpreted as a ‘premonition’ or a forerunner of the Revolution of 25 January 2011. The author reviews the novels published after 2006, which received a wide response

sumamaries of major articles	223

on the part of the readers and critics in Egypt as well as in the West, and which have not been translated into Russian yet.

Key words: the Egyptian novel of recent years, public concern, the Revolution of 25 January 2011, Muhammad Naji, Miral al-Tahawi, Yusuf Zaydan, Muhammad Salamawi.

E.V. Rudnikova. Russian Old Believers in New Zealand

In the mid of 1960-s a small refugee group of Russian Old Believers arrived to New Zealand from North China. They were settled in Southland. The author explores their transition from a traditional communal culture of Old Believers to the individualism of Western society. The research bases on the New Zealand information resources. The author is very grateful to the Centre for Applied CrossCultural Researches (Victoria University, Wellington) for the all-side assistance during her research stay in New Zealand.

Key words: Russians, refugees, Old Believers, bespopovtsy, New Zealand.

Yu.S. Skubko. Some aspects of development of higher education in South Africa

The author deals with some difficult problems of tertiary education in post-apartheid SouthAfrica. Among them are a general decline of educational and academic standards (from first towards third world), student drop-out, pressure for black empowerment irrespective of qualification and some others, particularly due to low competence of new state bureaucracy, reorganization bottlenecks and crisis trends in secondary education.

Key worlds: Education System, South Africa, Crisis, Academic Standards.

N.A. Nikolaeva. Caucasus and the Near East in the Early Bronze Age

ThisarticledealswiththeproblemofmigrationsintheareabetweentheCaucasusandMesopotamia in the Early Bronze Age. These regions are linked with the leaf-shaped butted tang spears that were found both in the dolmen №1 near Novosvobodnaya in the North-Western Caucasus, in the kurgan burials in the Transcaucasian, and in the “Royal Tomb” in Arslantepe (The Eastern Turkey).

In author’s opinion the arguments against the early date of Arslantepe tomb (ca. 3000 B.C.) are supported by independent dates for the Novosvobodnaya dolmens and the Kuban-Terek Culture which were received by the correlation of chronological systems of the Central European and Near Eastern Bronze Age monuments. Linguistics and archeological data point out to the presence of the protoHittites and the Ancient Europeans in the Caucasus.

Key words: Ancient Middle East, Anatolia, Arslantepe, leave-shaped butted tang spears, Early Bronze age in the Caucasus, Novosvobodnaya dolmens, Kuban-Terek culture, Kura-Araks culture, Hittites.

Publication: Petition of Circassian Notables to the Porte (ca. 1872). The Introd. Article, Transl. from Turk-Ottoman and Comment. by G.V. Chochiev

The paper is a publication of a rare-in-its-kind document from the funds of the Republic of Turkey’s Prime Ministry Ottoman Archives – a collective appeal of Circassian immigrant nobility to the supreme leadership of the empire, aiming at giving an account of the principal complaints and demands of the North Caucasian muhajirs regarding their colonization and adaptation in the new homeland. The petition raises issues related to the economic situation of the settlers, their relationships with the local officials and population, educational opportunities, administrative and legal status in the Ottoman society, etc. Special place is given to the transformation of traditional inter-class relations within the North Caucasian communities (particularly to the problem of ‘Circassian slavery’) under the new socio-political conditions. The document reproduces in a quite full measure the sentiments among the Circassian feudal-patriarchal elite at a rather critical and painful stage of this change.

Key words: Circassians, Ottoman Empire, immigration, colonization, social adaptation, crime, slavery, military service, education.