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Annual Energy Outlook 2010

Reference Case

The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies

December 14, 2009

Washington, DC

Richard Newell, Administrator

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009

1

 

 

How does the AEO2010 reference case handle public policy and technology?

Generally assumes current laws and regulations

provisions sunset if specified (e.g., renewable tax credits expire)

excludes potential future laws and regulations (e.g., proposed greenhouse gas legislation is not included)

some grey areas

adopts proposed regulations that are not yet final, in order to inform the likely implementation of a statute

adds a premium to the capital cost of CO2-intensive technologies to reflect market behavior regarding possible CO2 regulation

assumes implementation of existing regulations that enable building new energy infrastructure and resource extraction

Includes technologies that are commercial or reasonably expected to become commercial in the next decade or so

includes cost and efficiency improvements from learning, but not revolutionary or breakthrough technologies

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009

2

Key updates included in the AEO2010 reference case

Extended projection period to 2035

Changes in Federal and State laws and regulations

revised handling of fuel economy standards to reflect the proposal for light-duty vehicles in model years 2012-2016

assumes permission will be granted to extend nuclear power unit operating licenses beyond 60 years; no retirements through 2035

Revised capital costs for capital-intensive projects

overnight costs for nuclear and coal power up 10-20%

Changes to assumptions about oil and gas resource base

updated characterization of natural gas shales, reflecting evolution of shale gas resources and technology

new lower-48 onshore oil and gas supply submodule

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009

3

Oil prices in the reference case rise steadily; the full

AEO2010 will include a wide range of prices

2008 dollars per barrel

225

 

History

 

 

 

 

Projections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High oil price

 

200

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

175

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

150

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AEO2009 reference

 

125

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

100

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AEO2010 reference

 

75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Low oil price

 

25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

4

Oil to natural gas price ratio remains high over the projection

Oil and natural gas prices

Ratio of oil price to natural gas price

 

2008 dollars per million Btu

 

 

 

 

 

25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5

 

 

 

 

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crude oil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4

 

 

 

 

5

 

 

 

 

U.S. natural gas wellhead

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

History

 

 

 

 

Projections

 

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

 

2020

2025

2030

2035

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

5

Non-fossil energy use grows rapidly, but fossil fuels still provide 78 percent of total energy use in 2035

quadrillion Btu

120

 

History

 

 

 

 

Projections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

100

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liquid biofuels

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liquid fuels

 

 

60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coal

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Natural gas

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nuclear

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

6

Energy and CO2 per dollar GDP continue to decline; per capita energy use also declines

index, 2005=1

1.75

 

History

 

 

 

 

Projections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Energy per capita

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Energy per dollar GDP

0.50

 

 

 

 

 

CO2 per dollar GDP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

7

Energy efficiency gains reduce consumption 15% from where it would otherwise be; structural change is even larger

quadrillion Btu

200

Constant intensity

192

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structural

150

 

133

change

Constant efficiency

 

 

Efficiency

 

 

 

 

 

115

change

100

AEO2010 reference case

 

 

 

50

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

8

U.S. reliance on imported liquid fuels is reduced by increased domestic production and greater fuel efficiency

million barrels per day

25

History

Projections

 

 

 

 

20

Consumption

 

 

 

 

 

15

 

Net imports

40% 45%

60%

 

 

57%

 

10

Production

 

 

 

 

 

5

AEO2010 reference case

 

 

 

 

 

 

Updated AEO2009 reference case

 

 

0

 

 

 

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

9

Biofuels meet most of the growth in liquid fuels supply

million barrels per day

25

History

Projections

 

 

Biofuels including imports

20

 

 

15

 

Petroleum supply

10

 

Natural gas plant liquids

 

 

5

 

Net petroleum imports

0

 

 

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

10

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