СЭГ Мира / 1 семестр / ПРАКТИКУМ СЭГ мира,часть 1 / ХРЕСТОМАТИЯ электронная / 02 ТОПЛИВНО-ЭНЕРГЕТИЧ КОМПЛЕКС 2008 / ИНФОРМАЦИОННЫЙ БЮЛЛЕТЕНЬ SAIS
.pdfAnnual Energy Outlook 2010
Reference Case
The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies
December 14, 2009
Washington, DC
Richard Newell, Administrator
Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009 |
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How does the AEO2010 reference case handle public policy and technology?
•Generally assumes current laws and regulations
–provisions sunset if specified (e.g., renewable tax credits expire)
–excludes potential future laws and regulations (e.g., proposed greenhouse gas legislation is not included)
–some grey areas
•adopts proposed regulations that are not yet final, in order to inform the likely implementation of a statute
•adds a premium to the capital cost of CO2-intensive technologies to reflect market behavior regarding possible CO2 regulation
•assumes implementation of existing regulations that enable building new energy infrastructure and resource extraction
•Includes technologies that are commercial or reasonably expected to become commercial in the next decade or so
–includes cost and efficiency improvements from learning, but not revolutionary or breakthrough technologies
Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009 |
2 |
Key updates included in the AEO2010 reference case
•Extended projection period to 2035
•Changes in Federal and State laws and regulations
–revised handling of fuel economy standards to reflect the proposal for light-duty vehicles in model years 2012-2016
–assumes permission will be granted to extend nuclear power unit operating licenses beyond 60 years; no retirements through 2035
•Revised capital costs for capital-intensive projects
–overnight costs for nuclear and coal power up 10-20%
•Changes to assumptions about oil and gas resource base
–updated characterization of natural gas shales, reflecting evolution of shale gas resources and technology
–new lower-48 onshore oil and gas supply submodule
Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009 |
3 |
Oil prices in the reference case rise steadily; the full
AEO2010 will include a wide range of prices
2008 dollars per barrel
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History |
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Projections |
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High oil price |
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200 |
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175 |
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150 |
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AEO2009 reference |
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125 |
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100 |
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AEO2010 reference |
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75 |
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50 |
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Low oil price |
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25 |
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0 |
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1980 |
1985 |
1990 |
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
2025 |
2030 |
2035 |
Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009 |
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010 |
4 |
Oil to natural gas price ratio remains high over the projection
Oil and natural gas prices
Ratio of oil price to natural gas price |
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2008 dollars per million Btu |
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25 |
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5 |
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20 |
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15 |
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Crude oil |
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10 |
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4 |
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5 |
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U.S. natural gas wellhead |
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0 |
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1990 |
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
2025 |
2030 |
2035 |
3 |
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2 |
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1 |
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History |
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Projections |
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0 |
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1990 |
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
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2020 |
2025 |
2030 |
2035 |
Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009 |
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010 |
5 |
Non-fossil energy use grows rapidly, but fossil fuels still provide 78 percent of total energy use in 2035
quadrillion Btu
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Projections |
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Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) |
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100 |
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80 |
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Liquid biofuels |
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Liquid fuels |
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60 |
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40 |
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Coal |
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20 |
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Natural gas |
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0 |
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Nuclear |
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1980 |
1985 |
1990 |
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
2025 |
2030 |
2035 |
Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009 |
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010 |
6 |
Energy and CO2 per dollar GDP continue to decline; per capita energy use also declines
index, 2005=1
1.75 |
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History |
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Projections |
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1.50 |
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1.25 |
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1.00 |
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Energy per capita |
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0.75 |
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Energy per dollar GDP |
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0.50 |
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CO2 per dollar GDP |
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0.25 |
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0.00 |
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1980 |
1985 |
1990 |
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
2025 |
2030 |
2035 |
Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009 |
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010 |
7 |
Energy efficiency gains reduce consumption 15% from where it would otherwise be; structural change is even larger
quadrillion Btu
200 |
Constant intensity |
192 |
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Structural |
150 |
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133 |
change |
Constant efficiency |
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Efficiency |
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115 |
change |
100 |
AEO2010 reference case |
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50
0 |
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2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
2025 |
2030 |
2035 |
Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009 |
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010 |
8 |
U.S. reliance on imported liquid fuels is reduced by increased domestic production and greater fuel efficiency
million barrels per day
25 |
History |
Projections |
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Consumption |
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15 |
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Net imports |
40% 45% |
60% |
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57% |
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Production |
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5 |
AEO2010 reference case |
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Updated AEO2009 reference case |
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0 |
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 |
Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009 |
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010 |
9 |
Biofuels meet most of the growth in liquid fuels supply
million barrels per day
25 |
History |
Projections |
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Biofuels including imports |
20 |
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15 |
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Petroleum supply |
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Natural gas plant liquids |
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5 |
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Net petroleum imports |
0 |
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 |
Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009 |
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010 |
10 |