Deloite - USA Forcast 2019_Q2_watermark
.pdf
vk.com/id446425943
Appendix
2nd Quarter 2019
FIGURE 18
Baseline
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History |
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Forecast |
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% change, year over year, unless noted |
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2013 |
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2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
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2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
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otherwise |
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GDP and components |
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Real GDP |
1.8 |
|
2.5 |
2.9 |
1.6 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
2.5 |
|
1.2 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
|
Real consumer spending |
1.5 |
|
2.9 |
3.7 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
2.2 |
|
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
|
Real consumer spending, durable goods |
6.1 |
|
7.2 |
7.6 |
5.5 |
6.8 |
5.5 |
3.7 |
|
2.7 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
|
Real consumer spending, nondurable goods |
1.8 |
|
2.6 |
3.4 |
2.7 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
|
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
2.1 |
|
Real consumer spending, services |
0.6 |
|
2.4 |
3.2 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
|
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
|
Real investment in private housing |
12.4 |
|
3.9 |
10.1 |
6.5 |
3.3 |
-0.3 |
-2.7 |
|
-2.8 |
2.2 |
3.6 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
|
Real fxed business investment |
4.1 |
|
6.9 |
1.8 |
0.5 |
5.3 |
6.9 |
3.6 |
|
2.0 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
3.9 |
|
Real inventory accumulation |
109 |
|
87 |
129 |
23 |
23 |
45 |
84 |
|
32 |
22 |
8 |
36 |
35 |
|
Real exports of goods and services |
3.6 |
|
4.3 |
0.6 |
-0.1 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
2.0 |
|
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
|
Real imports of goods and services |
1.5 |
|
5.1 |
5.5 |
1.9 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
0.8 |
|
1.8 |
2.2 |
2.8 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
|
Real government consumption and investment |
-2.4 |
|
-0.9 |
1.9 |
1.4 |
-0.1 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
|
-0.1 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
|
Real federal government consumption and |
-5.5 |
|
-2.6 |
-0.0 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
2.6 |
1.9 |
|
-1.8 |
-1.4 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.6 |
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investment |
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Real state and local government consumption |
-0.3 |
|
0.2 |
3.0 |
2.0 |
-0.5 |
0.8 |
2.4 |
|
1.6 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
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and investment |
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Prices |
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Consumer price index
Chained price index for personal consumption expenditures
Chained GDP price index
Employment cost index
Labor markets
1.5 |
1.6 |
0.1 |
1.3 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
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1.8 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
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Average monthly change in employment |
183 |
214 |
240 |
210 |
189 |
204 |
220 |
112 |
33 |
42 |
57 |
58 |
Unemployment rate (percent) |
7.4 |
6.2 |
5.3 |
4.9 |
4.3 |
3.9 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
Employment to population (percent) |
58.6 |
59.0 |
59.3 |
59.7 |
60.1 |
60.4 |
60.9 |
61.0 |
60.6 |
60.3 |
60.1 |
60.0 |
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Income and wealth
Real disposable personal income
Net household wealth (US$ trillions)
Personal saving rate (percent of disposable income)
After-tax corporate profts with corporate profts with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments
Housing
Housing starts (thousands)
Stock of owner-occupied homes (millions)
Interest rate on 30-year fxed-rate mortgages
(percent)
Foreign trade
Current account balance, share of GDP (percent)
Merchandise trade balance (US$ billions)
Relative unit labor costs (index, 2008=100)
Financial
Federal funds rate (percent)
Yield on 10-year Treasury note (percent)
Government
Federal budget balance, unifed basis (share of
GDP, percent)
-1.3 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
1.7 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
82 |
87 |
90 |
95 |
103 |
104 |
111 |
113 |
115 |
117 |
120 |
123 |
6.4 |
7.3 |
7.6 |
6.7 |
6.7 |
6.7 |
6.2 |
6.3 |
6.1 |
6.2 |
6.4 |
6.6 |
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0.7 |
5.4 |
-2.9 |
-1.1 |
3.2 |
7.8 |
2.3 |
-0.8 |
2.8 |
3.7 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
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928 |
999 |
1,107 |
1,177 |
1,208 |
1,249 |
1,204 |
1,050 |
1,087 |
1,141 |
1,163 |
1,273 |
134 |
134 |
135 |
136 |
137 |
138 |
140 |
141 |
141 |
142 |
143 |
145 |
3.98 |
4.17 |
3.85 |
3.65 |
3.99 |
4.54 |
4.57 |
4.97 |
5.19 |
5.33 |
5.48 |
5.65 |
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-2.1 |
-2.1 |
-2.2 |
-2.3 |
-2.3 |
-2.4 |
-2.5 |
-2.5 |
-2.6 |
-2.7 |
-2.9 |
-3.1 |
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|
-690 |
-727 |
-737 |
-735 |
-797 |
-878 |
-696 |
-962 |
-991 |
-1,052 |
-1,156 |
-1,232 |
85.7 |
89.0 |
99.9 |
102.1 |
102.3 |
99.8 |
99.9 |
97.8 |
94.7 |
92.8 |
91.7 |
90.7 |
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|
0.13 |
0.13 |
0.14 |
0.39 |
0.97 |
1.78 |
2.37 |
2.37 |
2.37 |
2.38 |
2.38 |
2.38 |
2.35 |
2.54 |
2.14 |
1.84 |
2.33 |
2.91 |
2.98 |
3.46 |
3.69 |
3.86 |
4.01 |
4.40 |
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-4.3 |
-2.9 |
-2.6 |
-2.9 |
-3.5 |
-3.9 |
-4.2 |
-4.8 |
-5.3 |
-5.6 |
-5.8 |
-5.9 |
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Sources: Historical data: US government agencies and Oxford Economics. Forecast: Deloitte, using the Oxford Global Economic Model.
19
vk.com/id446425943
United States Economic Forecast
FIGURE 19
Coordinated global recovery
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History |
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Forecast |
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% change, year over year, unless noted |
|
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|
2013 |
|
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
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2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
||
otherwise |
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GDP and components |
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Real GDP |
1.8 |
|
2.5 |
2.9 |
1.6 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
2.6 |
|
1.8 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
|
Real consumer spending |
1.5 |
|
2.9 |
3.7 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
|
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
|
Real consumer spending, durable goods |
6.1 |
|
7.2 |
7.6 |
5.5 |
6.8 |
5.5 |
3.8 |
|
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
|
Real consumer spending, nondurable goods |
1.8 |
|
2.6 |
3.4 |
2.7 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
|
2.4 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
|
Real consumer spending, services |
0.6 |
|
2.4 |
3.2 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.5 |
|
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
|
Real investment in private housing |
12.4 |
|
3.9 |
10.1 |
6.5 |
3.3 |
-0.3 |
-2.7 |
|
-2.3 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
6.1 |
4.3 |
|
Real fxed business investment |
4.1 |
|
6.9 |
1.8 |
0.5 |
5.3 |
6.9 |
4.0 |
|
4.3 |
3.5 |
4.8 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
|
Real inventory accumulation |
109 |
|
87 |
129 |
23 |
23 |
45 |
85 |
|
47 |
33 |
24 |
49 |
37 |
|
Real exports of goods and services |
3.6 |
|
4.3 |
0.6 |
-0.1 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
2.1 |
|
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
3.2 |
|
Real imports of goods and services |
1.5 |
|
5.1 |
5.5 |
1.9 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
1.2 |
|
2.4 |
2.8 |
3.2 |
4.2 |
4.7 |
|
Real government consumption and investment |
-2.4 |
|
-0.9 |
1.9 |
1.4 |
-0.1 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
|
-0.1 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
|
Real federal government consumption and |
-5.5 |
|
-2.6 |
-0.0 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
2.6 |
1.9 |
|
-1.8 |
-1.4 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.6 |
|
investment |
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Real state and local government consumption |
-0.3 |
|
0.2 |
3.0 |
2.0 |
-0.5 |
0.8 |
2.4 |
|
1.6 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
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and investment |
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Prices |
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Consumer price index
Chained price index for personal consumption expenditures
Chained GDP price index
Employment cost index
Labor markets
1.5 |
1.6 |
0.1 |
1.3 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
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|
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
|
Average monthly change in employment |
183 |
214 |
240 |
210 |
189 |
204 |
228 |
166 |
88 |
114 |
116 |
113 |
Unemployment rate (percent) |
7.4 |
6.2 |
5.3 |
4.9 |
4.3 |
3.9 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
Employment to population (percent) |
58.6 |
59.0 |
59.3 |
59.7 |
60.1 |
60.4 |
61.0 |
61.3 |
61.2 |
61.2 |
61.3 |
61.4 |
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Income and wealth
Real disposable personal income
Net household wealth (US$ trillions)
Personal saving rate (percent of disposable income)
After-tax corporate profts with corporate profts with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments
Housing
Housing starts (thousands)
Stock of owner-occupied homes (millions)
Interest rate on 30-year fxed-rate mortgages
(percent)
Foreign trade
Current account balance, share of GDP (percent)
Merchandise trade balance (US$ billions)
Relative unit labor costs (index, 2008=100)
Financial
Federal funds rate (percent)
Yield on 10-year Treasury note (percent)
Government
Federal budget balance, unifed basis (share of
GDP, percent)
-1.3 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
1.7 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
1.9 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
82 |
87 |
90 |
95 |
103 |
104 |
110 |
114 |
118 |
121 |
125 |
128 |
6.4 |
7.3 |
7.6 |
6.7 |
6.7 |
6.7 |
6.2 |
6.2 |
6.0 |
5.9 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
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|
0.7 |
5.4 |
-2.9 |
-1.1 |
3.2 |
7.8 |
3.5 |
2.7 |
1.5 |
3.9 |
2.3 |
0.6 |
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|
928 |
999 |
1,107 |
1,177 |
1,208 |
1,249 |
1,203 |
1,054 |
1,105 |
1,193 |
1,275 |
1,449 |
134 |
134 |
135 |
136 |
137 |
138 |
140 |
141 |
141 |
142 |
144 |
145 |
3.98 |
4.17 |
3.85 |
3.65 |
3.99 |
4.54 |
4.66 |
5.56 |
5.82 |
5.94 |
6.13 |
6.23 |
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-2.1 |
-2.1 |
-2.2 |
-2.3 |
-2.3 |
-2.4 |
-2.6 |
-2.6 |
-2.7 |
-2.8 |
-3.1 |
-3.4 |
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|
-690 |
-727 |
-737 |
-735 |
-797 |
-878 |
-704 |
-984 |
-1,032 |
-1,102 |
-1,235 |
-1,365 |
85.7 |
89.0 |
99.9 |
102.1 |
102.3 |
99.8 |
99.7 |
98.3 |
95.6 |
93.6 |
92.4 |
91.6 |
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|
0.13 |
0.13 |
0.14 |
0.39 |
0.97 |
1.78 |
2.23 |
2.88 |
3.31 |
3.38 |
3.38 |
3.38 |
2.35 |
2.54 |
2.14 |
1.84 |
2.33 |
2.91 |
3.16 |
4.14 |
4.29 |
4.42 |
4.61 |
4.67 |
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|
-4.3 |
-2.9 |
-2.6 |
-2.9 |
-3.5 |
-3.9 |
-4.2 |
-4.8 |
-5.2 |
-5.3 |
-5.4 |
-5.5 |
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Sources: Historical data: US government agencies and Oxford Economics. Forecast: Deloitte, using the Oxford Global Economic Model.
20
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2nd Quarter 2019
FIGURE 20
Recession
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History |
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Forecast |
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% change, year over year, unless noted |
|
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|
2013 |
|
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
||
otherwise |
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GDP and components |
|
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|
Real GDP |
1.8 |
|
2.5 |
2.9 |
1.6 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
2.4 |
|
-1.6 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
|
Real consumer spending |
1.5 |
|
2.9 |
3.7 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
2.2 |
|
0.2 |
1.4 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
|
Real consumer spending, durable goods |
6.1 |
|
7.2 |
7.6 |
5.5 |
6.8 |
5.5 |
3.7 |
|
2.0 |
1.5 |
2.9 |
1.4 |
2.4 |
|
Real consumer spending, nondurable goods |
1.8 |
|
2.6 |
3.4 |
2.7 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
|
0.2 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
|
Real consumer spending, services |
0.6 |
|
2.4 |
3.2 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
|
-0.1 |
1.4 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
|
Real investment in private housing |
12.4 |
|
3.9 |
10.1 |
6.5 |
3.3 |
-0.3 |
-3.2 |
|
-15.6 |
11.3 |
7.0 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
|
Real fxed business investment |
4.1 |
|
6.9 |
1.8 |
0.5 |
5.3 |
6.9 |
3.2 |
|
-5.6 |
5.5 |
5.6 |
4.1 |
3.4 |
|
Real inventory accumulation |
109 |
|
87 |
129 |
23 |
23 |
45 |
84 |
|
-29 |
11 |
24 |
33 |
27 |
|
Real exports of goods and services |
3.6 |
|
4.3 |
0.6 |
-0.1 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
1.8 |
|
-0.3 |
1.6 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
|
Real imports of goods and services |
1.5 |
|
5.1 |
5.5 |
1.9 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
0.7 |
|
-1.6 |
2.8 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
3.3 |
|
Real government consumption and investment |
-2.4 |
|
-0.9 |
1.9 |
1.4 |
-0.1 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
|
-0.1 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
|
Real federal government consumption and |
-5.5 |
|
-2.6 |
-0.0 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
2.6 |
1.9 |
|
-1.8 |
-1.4 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.6 |
|
investment |
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Real state and local government consumption |
-0.3 |
|
0.2 |
3.0 |
2.0 |
-0.5 |
0.8 |
2.4 |
|
1.6 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
|
and investment |
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Prices |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Consumer price index
Chained price index for personal consumption expenditures
Chained GDP price index
Employment cost index
Labor markets
1.5 |
1.6 |
0.1 |
1.3 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
1.7 |
-0.3 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
1.6 |
0.3 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
0.2 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
2.9 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average monthly change in employment |
183 |
214 |
240 |
210 |
189 |
204 |
215 |
-136 |
-100 |
272 |
165 |
77 |
Unemployment rate (percent) |
7.4 |
6.2 |
5.3 |
4.9 |
4.3 |
3.9 |
3.6 |
5.9 |
6.9 |
5.1 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
Employment to population (percent) |
58.6 |
59.0 |
59.3 |
59.7 |
60.1 |
60.4 |
60.9 |
59.7 |
58.7 |
59.5 |
59.9 |
59.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income and wealth
Real disposable personal income
Net household wealth (US$ trillions)
Personal saving rate (percent of disposable income)
After-tax corporate profts with corporate profts with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments
Housing
Housing starts (thousands)
Stock of owner-occupied homes (millions)
Interest rate on 30-year fxed-rate mortgages
(percent)
Foreign trade
Current account balance, share of GDP (percent)
Merchandise trade balance (US$ billions)
Relative unit labor costs (index, 2008=100)
Financial
Federal funds rate (percent)
Yield on 10-year Treasury note (percent)
Government
Federal budget balance, unifed basis (share of
GDP, percent)
-1.3 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
1.7 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
0.3 |
2.3 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
82 |
87 |
90 |
95 |
103 |
104 |
101 |
106 |
116 |
103 |
117 |
121 |
6.4 |
7.3 |
7.6 |
6.7 |
6.7 |
6.7 |
6.4 |
7.7 |
6.8 |
7.1 |
6.5 |
6.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.7 |
5.4 |
-2.9 |
-1.1 |
3.2 |
7.8 |
1.6 |
-9.1 |
15.5 |
-3.0 |
2.2 |
3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
928 |
999 |
1,107 |
1,177 |
1,208 |
1,249 |
1,197 |
910 |
1,022 |
1,108 |
1,134 |
1,251 |
134 |
134 |
135 |
136 |
137 |
138 |
140 |
140 |
141 |
142 |
143 |
144 |
3.98 |
4.17 |
3.85 |
3.65 |
3.99 |
4.54 |
4.47 |
4.23 |
4.08 |
4.47 |
4.76 |
4.72 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-2.1 |
-2.1 |
-2.2 |
-2.3 |
-2.3 |
-2.4 |
-2.5 |
-2.3 |
-2.5 |
-2.7 |
-2.8 |
-2.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-690 |
-727 |
-737 |
-735 |
-797 |
-878 |
-685 |
-826 |
-875 |
-977 |
-1,090 |
-1,153 |
85.7 |
89.0 |
99.9 |
102.1 |
102.3 |
99.8 |
100.3 |
102.1 |
96.1 |
97.8 |
100.5 |
94.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.13 |
0.13 |
0.14 |
0.39 |
0.97 |
1.78 |
2.16 |
1.29 |
1.38 |
1.50 |
1.63 |
1.69 |
2.35 |
2.54 |
2.14 |
1.84 |
2.33 |
2.91 |
2.83 |
2.52 |
2.74 |
2.96 |
3.24 |
3.41 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-4.3 |
-2.9 |
-2.6 |
-2.9 |
-3.5 |
-3.9 |
-4.2 |
-5.2 |
-6.7 |
-6.4 |
-6.2 |
-6.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sources: Historical data: US government agencies and Oxford Economics. Forecast: Deloitte, using the Oxford Global Economic Model.
21
vk.com/id446425943
United States Economic Forecast
FIGURE 21
Slower growth
|
|
History |
|
|
|
|
|
Forecast |
|
|
|
|
|
||
% change, year over year, unless noted |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2013 |
|
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
||
otherwise |
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
GDP and components |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Real GDP |
1.8 |
|
2.5 |
2.9 |
1.6 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
2.1 |
|
0.7 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
|
Real consumer spending |
1.5 |
|
2.9 |
3.7 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
1.7 |
|
1.2 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
|
Real consumer spending, durable goods |
6.1 |
|
7.2 |
7.6 |
5.5 |
6.8 |
5.5 |
3.7 |
|
2.4 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
|
Real consumer spending, nondurable goods |
1.8 |
|
2.6 |
3.4 |
2.7 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
2.0 |
|
1.2 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
|
Real consumer spending, services |
0.6 |
|
2.4 |
3.2 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
1.7 |
|
1.0 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
|
Real investment in private housing |
12.4 |
|
3.9 |
10.1 |
6.5 |
3.3 |
-0.3 |
-2.5 |
|
-2.9 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
-0.5 |
|
Real fxed business investment |
4.1 |
|
6.9 |
1.8 |
0.5 |
5.3 |
6.9 |
2.7 |
|
0.8 |
3.2 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
|
Real inventory accumulation |
109 |
|
87 |
129 |
23 |
23 |
45 |
77 |
|
17 |
21 |
10 |
20 |
14 |
|
Real exports of goods and services |
3.6 |
|
4.3 |
0.6 |
-0.1 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
1.7 |
|
0.8 |
1.1 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
2.6 |
|
Real imports of goods and services |
1.5 |
|
5.1 |
5.5 |
1.9 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
-0.0 |
|
-0.2 |
1.3 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
|
Real government consumption and investment |
-2.4 |
|
-0.9 |
1.9 |
1.4 |
-0.1 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
|
-0.1 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
|
Real federal government consumption and |
-5.5 |
|
-2.6 |
-0.0 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
2.6 |
1.9 |
|
-1.8 |
-1.4 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.6 |
|
investment |
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Real state and local government consumption |
-0.3 |
|
0.2 |
3.0 |
2.0 |
-0.5 |
0.8 |
2.4 |
|
1.6 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
|
and investment |
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Prices |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Consumer price index
Chained price index for personal consumption expenditures
Chained GDP price index
Employment cost index
Labor markets
1.5 |
1.6 |
0.1 |
1.3 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average monthly change in employment |
183 |
214 |
240 |
210 |
189 |
204 |
199 |
76 |
37 |
37 |
10 |
24 |
Unemployment rate (percent) |
7.4 |
6.2 |
5.3 |
4.9 |
4.3 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.6 |
4.8 |
Employment to population (percent) |
58.6 |
59.0 |
59.3 |
59.7 |
60.1 |
60.4 |
60.8 |
60.7 |
60.4 |
60.0 |
59.6 |
59.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income and wealth
Real disposable personal income
Net household wealth (US$ trillions)
Personal saving rate (percent of disposable income)
After-tax corporate profts with corporate profts with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments
Housing
Housing starts (thousands)
Stock of owner-occupied homes (millions)
Interest rate on 30-year fxed-rate mortgages
(percent)
Foreign trade
Current account balance, share of GDP (percent)
Merchandise trade balance (US$ billions)
Relative unit labor costs (index, 2008=100)
Financial
Federal funds rate (percent)
Yield on 10-year Treasury note (percent)
Government
Federal budget balance, unifed basis (share of
GDP, percent)
-1.3 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
1.7 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
1.9 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
82 |
87 |
90 |
95 |
103 |
104 |
107 |
110 |
115 |
116 |
117 |
120 |
6.4 |
7.3 |
7.6 |
6.7 |
6.7 |
6.7 |
6.8 |
6.9 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.7 |
6.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.7 |
5.4 |
-2.9 |
-1.1 |
3.2 |
7.8 |
-0.9 |
-2.7 |
5.9 |
2.7 |
2.2 |
-4.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
928 |
999 |
1,107 |
1,177 |
1,208 |
1,249 |
1,205 |
1,049 |
1,071 |
1,096 |
1,108 |
1,202 |
134 |
134 |
135 |
136 |
137 |
138 |
140 |
141 |
141 |
142 |
143 |
144 |
3.98 |
4.17 |
3.85 |
3.65 |
3.99 |
4.54 |
4.38 |
4.42 |
4.33 |
4.49 |
4.70 |
4.84 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-2.1 |
-2.1 |
-2.2 |
-2.3 |
-2.3 |
-2.4 |
-2.5 |
-2.6 |
-2.5 |
-2.6 |
-2.7 |
-2.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-690 |
-727 |
-737 |
-735 |
-797 |
-878 |
-695 |
-940 |
-970 |
-1,023 |
-1,131 |
-1,198 |
85.7 |
89.0 |
99.9 |
102.1 |
102.3 |
99.8 |
99.8 |
98.1 |
95.8 |
94.5 |
94.3 |
93.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.13 |
0.13 |
0.14 |
0.39 |
0.97 |
1.78 |
2.37 |
2.15 |
2.01 |
2.00 |
2.00 |
2.00 |
2.35 |
2.54 |
2.14 |
1.84 |
2.33 |
2.91 |
2.64 |
2.67 |
2.71 |
2.87 |
3.03 |
3.18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-4.3 |
-2.9 |
-2.6 |
-2.9 |
-3.5 |
-3.9 |
-4.2 |
-4.9 |
-5.4 |
-5.6 |
-5.8 |
-6.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sources: Historical data: US government agencies and Oxford Economics. Forecast: Deloitte, using the Oxford Global Economic Model.
22
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2nd Quarter 2019
Endnotes
1.The precise list of goods to be covered has not been fnalized. The administration will take comments and may decide to remove some goods from its proposed list.
2.See, for example, Galina Hale et al., “Infationary efects of trade disputes with China,” Federal Reserve Bank of
San Francisco Economic Letter, 2019–07, February 25, 2019; and Erica York, “The economic and distributional impact of the Trump administration’s tarif actions,” Tax Foundation, December 5, 2018.
3.Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Financial stability report, May 2019.
4.Unless otherwise noted, all data supplied by Haver Analytics, which compiles statistics from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and other databases.
5.See, for example, US Government Accountability Ofce, “Retirement security: Most households approaching retirement have low savings,” May 12, 2015; Gaobo Pang and Mark J. Warshawsky, “Retirement savings adequacy of US workers,” SSRN, March 11, 2013.
6.Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Report on the economic well-being of U.S. households in
2017,” May 2018.
7.Daniel Bachman, Income inequality in the United States: What do we know and what does it mean?, Deloitte
University Press, July 12, 2017.
8.Dave Goodson and Colin Dugas, “U.S. housing: Headlines suggest trouble,” Voya Investment Management,
November 6, 2018.
9.Philip Inman, “Trump’s trade wars sent global investment tumbling—World Bank,” Guardian, June 4, 2019; Steven J. Davis, “Trump’s trade-policy uncertainty deters investment,” Chicago Booth Review, November 14, 2018.
10.Jef Stein, “Disaster aid stalls again in House after second Republican objects,” Washington Post, May 28, 2019.
11.Richard Baldwin, “Global supply chains: Why they emerged, why they matter, and where they are going,” CTEI
Papers, 2012; see also Patricia Buckley, A new view of international trade, Deloitte University Press, March 17, 2014.
12.For instance, Arthur Sullivan, “No-deal Brexit fears on minds of German manufacturers,” Deutsche Welle, November 23, 2018; Ivana Kottasová, “Brexit is holding back innovation at European carmakers,” CNN Business,
November 9, 2018.
13.Steve Holland and Stella Qiu, “Trump threatens China with tarifs on further $300 billion of goods,” Reuters, June 6, 2019.
14.Peter Navarro, “The era of American complacency on trade is over,” New York Times, June 8, 2018.
15.Tae Kim, “Commerce secretary Ross: ‘The ultimate objective of the president is to reduce tarifs,’” CNBC, June
21, 2018.
16.For a complete explanation, see Daniel Bachman, Balancing payments: Why it’s harder than you might think to cut the trade defcit, Deloitte University Press, February 28, 2017.
17.Tax Foundation, “Preliminary details and analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,” Special Report No. 241, December 2017; Benjamin R. Page et al., “Macroeconomic analysis of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act,” Tax Policy
Center, December 20, 2017. For two other views (that estimate the impact at about 0.1 percent per year), see
23
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United States Economic Forecast
Joint Committee on Taxation, “Macroeconomic analysis of the conference agreement for H.R. 1, the ‘Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,’” December 22, 2017; Penn Wharton Budget Model, “The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, as reported by conference committee (12/15/17): Static and dynamic efects on the budget and economy,” December 18, 2017.
18.For Deloitte’s analysis of the economic impact of the election, see Ira Kalish, Understanding the economic impact of US midterm elections, Deloitte Insights, November 7, 2018.
19.Kate Davidson, “U.S. could run out of room on debt ceiling in late summer, Mnuchin says,” Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2019.
20.Ella Nilsen, ‘Trump and Democrats’ ‘excellent,’ maybe-doomed meeting on a $2 trillion infrastructure plan, explained,” Vox, April 30, 2019.
21.Valerie Dickerson, Scott Schiefelbein, and Thomas Cornett, Federal tax reform—multistate tax considerations and conformity, Deloitte, January 29, 2018.
22.Alicia H. Munnell and Jean-Pierre Aubry, “The funding of state and local pensions, 2015–2020,” Center for State and Local Government Excellence, June 2016
23.Sophie Quinton, “Wary of teacher walkouts, states aim to boost school spending,” Pew, January 29, 2019.
24.Jefrey S. Passel and D’Vera Cohn, “U.S. unauthorized immigrant total dips to lowest level in a decade,” Pew
Research Center, November 27, 2018.
25.Ibid.
26.Ibid.
27.Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “FOMC projections materials,” March 20, 2019.
28.Yuki Noguchi, “Solving the ‘wage puzzle’: Why aren’t paychecks growing?”, NPR, August 2, 2018.
29.Reuters, “U.S. frst-quarter unit labor costs revised down sharply,” June 6, 2019.
30.For example, in “The impact of work-limiting disability on labor force participation” (Health Economics 24, no. 3 [2015]), D.A. Webber and M.J. Bjelland estimate that 4.8 million individuals have left the labor force, accounting, therefore, for more than the missing 4 million noted above. On the other hand, Monique Morrissey argues that the impact is considerably smaller (“Are disability benefts becoming more generous?,” Working Economics Blog, Economic Policy Institute, July 1, 2015).
31.Mary Amiti, Stephen J. Redding, and David E. Weinstein, “The impact of the 2018 trade war on U.S. prices and welfare,” Centre for Economic Policy Research, March 2, 2019.
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About the authors
Dr. Daniel Bachman | dbachman@deloitte.com
Dr. Daniel Bachman is a senior manager for US macroeconomics at Deloitte Services LP. He is based in
Arlington, Virginia.
Dr. Rumki Majumdar | rmajumdar@deloitte.com
Dr. Rumki Majumdar is a macroeconomist and a manager at Deloitte Research, Deloitte Services LP. She is based in Bengaluru.
CONTRIBUTORS
Dr. Ira Kalish | ikalish@deloitte.com
Dr. Ira Kalish is chief global economist for Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd. He is based in Los Angeles.
Dr. Patricia Buckley | pabuckley@deloitte.com
Dr. Patricia Buckley is director of economic policy and analysis for Deloitte Services LP. She is based in
Arlington, Virginia.
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United States Economic Forecast
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Dr. Daniel Bachman
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+1 202 220 2053 | dbachman@deloitte.com
Dr. Ira Kalish
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
+1 213 688 4765 | ikalish@deloitte.com
Dr. Patricia Buckley
Deloitte Research | Deloitte Services LP +1 517 814 6508 | pabuckley@deloitte.com
Dr. Rumki Majumdar
Deloitte Research | Deloitte Services LP
+1 615 209 4090 | rmajumdar@deloitte.com
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