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Russia

Financials: Banks

26 November 2018

TCS Group, ord. (TCS LI, USD)

Buy (30 Oct 2017, 09:10 UTC)

Previous: Sell (19 Oct 2015, 12:10 UTC)

Target price, 12mo: 28.00

Last price: 17.30 (23 Nov 2018, close)

Expected total return: 69%

Upside, 12mo: 62%

DY, next 12mo: 6.9%

Share price performance, 12-mo

30

 

 

 

 

30%

25

 

 

 

 

25%

 

 

 

 

20%

 

 

 

 

 

20

 

 

 

 

15%

15

 

 

 

 

10%

 

 

 

 

5%

 

 

 

 

 

10

 

 

 

 

0%

5

 

 

 

 

-5%

 

 

 

 

-10%

 

 

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

-15%

Nov

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

TCS LI, USD, lhs Relative to RTS Index, %, rhs

Equities

 

 

 

 

 

 

1M

3M

12M

3Y

 

 

 

Price

-1%

3%

-3%

477%

 

Price relative

-1%

-4%

1%

365%

 

ADTV (USD mn)

2.19

1.95

2.60

1.73

 

Key financial highlights

 

 

 

Fiscal year end

12/17

12/18F

12/19F

12/20F

 

P/E, x

7.1x

7.6x

6.1x

5.5x

 

P/B, x

3.22x

3.58x

2.82x

2.42x

 

DY (ords), %

6.15%

7.20%

10.65%

13.56%

 

Op. inc., RUB mn

59,191

80,542

98,783

112,112

 

Opex, RUB mn

(26,566)

(35,804)

(43,206)

(48,286)

 

Net income, RUB mn

19,019

25,934

32,482

35,824

 

Op. inc., chg

43%

36%

23%

13%

 

Opex, chg

44%

35%

21%

12%

 

Net income, chg

73%

36%

25%

10%

 

EPS, RUB

109.89

149.84

187.68

206.98

 

DPS, RUB

47.83

82.43

122.02

155.27

 

BPS(ords), RUB

241.18

320.21

405.67

474.01

 

NIM, %

26.7%

24.7%

23.5%

21.1%

 

CIR, %

44.9%

44.5%

43.7%

43.1%

 

ROE, %

53.4%

53.4%

51.7%

47.1%

 

ROA, %

8.6%

8.5%

8.6%

8.1%

 

Tier 1 CAR

21.0%

17.3%

16.8%

16.2%

 

Loans/Deposits

78%

73%

76%

76%

 

NPLs, %

8.8%

14.9%

13.2%

13.2%

Multiples and yields are calculated based on period-average prices where available.

Source: Bloomberg, Company data, VTB Capital Research

Earnings Release

TCS Group

3Q18 IFRS; solid loan growth and 6% DY

In 3Q18, TCS Group earnings totaled RUB 7.3bn, 11% above consensus and 10% above our expectations. The outperformance vs. the consensus came from lower than expected opex and LLP. The Bank has increased its guidance for FY18 for earnings to over RUB 26bn from over RUB 24bn before; the consensus forecast is RUB 25.8bn (BBG, 26 November). We consider results strong and see upside risks to our earnings estimates. During the conference call, we intend to focus on F&C development and further loan growth (TCS now sees at least 40% YoY in 2018 vs. at least 25% previously guided). Our unchanged 12 month Target Price of USD 28 implies an ETR of 69%. Buy reiterated.

Strong operating performance. NII was up 5.1% QoQ and 22.8% YoY, driven by solid asset growth and coming in line with the consensus forecast. However, NIM was down 81bp QoQ to 24.2% amid lower asset yields. Net F&C also was up 9.9% QoQ. Expansion of core income, together with an increase in other operating income, helped opinc to increase 10.6% QoQ. Opex was up only 3.0% QoQ (2% below consensus) amid lower marketing costs, pushing CIR down 2pp YoY to 42%. LLP only edged 0.8% up QoQ (4% below consensus forecast). As a result, earnings grew 20.8% QoQ to RUB 7.3bn, implying 81% ROE.

Cash loans and credit cards drive strong loan growth. Gross loan book expansion slightly decelerated to 34% YoY, from 36% YoY in 1H18. Solid growth was supported by credit cards (+23% YoY), cash loans (3x YoY) and POS loans (2x YoY), with the share of credit cards at 83% and cash loans up to 12%. Customer accounts grew robustly at 50.0% YoY.

Management upgrades earnings guidance to “over RUB 26bn”. TCS management increased its guidance for FY18 earnings to “over RUB 26bn” from “over RUB 24bn” before, following the strong underlying growth. For net loan growth, TCS sees at least 40% YoY vs. at least 25% it had previously expected and the 30% YTD growth posted in 3Q18. Guidance for CoR (at around 7%) and cost of borrowing (at the lower end of 6-7% rage) were reiterated. Interfax reports that for FY19, management expects higher earnings (the number for which were not presented); we and the consensus forecast RUB 31bn and RUB 32bn, respectively.

Share of NPLs declines QoQ. The share of NPLs dropped 1.3pp QoQ to 10.8% amid the sale of impaired loans; cash coverage stayed at 166%.

Capital adequacy remains strong, supporting dividend payment. T1 and Total CAR stood at 16.6%, which allowed TCS to announce a USD 0.28/share interim dividend (6% DY). The record date is 7 December.

Conference call. Management is to host a conference call today at 12.00, GMT (dial-in: +44 330 336 9411, +7 495 646 9190; conference ID: 1391620). We intend to focus on consumer loan growth, F&C income development and client acquisition costs.

Mikhail Shlemov, Equities Analyst

+7 495 663 47 01 // mikhail.shlemov@vtbcapital.com

Svetlana Aslanova, Equities Analyst

+7 495 663 47 88 // svetlana.aslanova@vtbcapital.com

Prices cited in the body of this report are as of the last close before, or the close on, 23 Nov 2018 (except where indicated otherwise). VTB Capital analysts update their recommendations periodically as required. This research report was prepared by the analyst(s) named above who is(are) associated with JSC VTB Capital and is distributed by JSC VTB Capital and VTB Capital PLC and their non-U.S. affiliates outside the United States. This VTB Capital research report is distributed to investors located within United States by Xtellus Capital Partners, Inc. (“Xtellus”) as a “third-party research report” as defined in Rule 2241(a)(14) and Rule 2242(a)(17) of the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Please refer to the Disclosures section of this report for other important disclosures, including the analyst certification and information required by regulation.

vk.com/id446425943

 

 

TCS Group

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Russia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financials: Banks

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TCS Group 3Q18 IFRS results highlights

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RUB bn

3Q17

 

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

Chng QoQ,

Chng YoY,

VTBC

Diff, %

Cons*.

Diff, %

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

%

%

3Q18F

 

3Q18F

 

 

NII

12.4

14.3

14.5

15.2

5.1%

22.8%

14.9

2.1%

15.1

0.4%

 

Net F&C income

2.5

3.8

3.8

4.2

9.9%

67.9%

4.6

-7.8%

 

 

 

Core income

14.9

18.1

18.3

19.4

6.1%

30.4%

19.5

-0.2%

 

 

 

Operating income

15.7

19.2

19.7

21.8

10.6%

39.1%

20.3

7.7%

 

 

 

Operating expenses

-6.9

-8.5

-8.9

-9.1

3.0%

33.2%

-8.9

2.5%

-9.3

-1.9%

 

Net operating income

8.8

10.6

10.9

12.7

16.8%

43.6%

11.4

11.8%

 

 

 

Provisioning

-2.2

-3.2

-3.1

-3.1

0.8%

41.0%

-2.8

11.3%

-3.2

-4.2%

 

Profit before tax

6.6

7.4

7.8

9.6

23.2%

44.5%

8.6

11.9%

 

 

 

Net income

5.0

5.7

6.0

7.3

20.8%

44.4%

6.6

10.3%

6.5

11.1%

 

EPS

29.1

33.1

34.8

42.0

 

 

38.1

 

 

 

 

Balance sheet, RUB bn

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loans, net

134

140

152

169

10.8%

25.8%

165

2.2%

167

1.2%

 

Customer accounts

156

182

208

234

12.5%

50.0%

229

2.0%

 

 

 

LDR

86%

77%

73%

72%

-1%

-16.2%

72%

 

 

 

 

NPLs, %

9.4%

12.6%

12.1%

10.8%

-131

137

11.8%

 

 

 

 

Provisions

12.6%

20.8%

19.7%

17.9%

-178

530

18.8%

 

 

 

 

Ratios

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NIM

27.5%

26.1%

25.0%

24.2%

-81

-334

23.75%

41

22.00%

216

 

CIR

43.7%

44.5%

45.0%

41.9%

-310

-184

44.0%

-212

 

 

 

CoR

603

776

675

630

-45

27

570

61

660

-30

 

ROE

53.7%

60.0%

69.7%

81.0%

1,125

2,728

69.8%

1117

70.5%

1,045

 

ROA

8.9%

8.6%

8.7%

9.6%

84

63

8.8%

74

 

 

Source: Company data, VTB Capital Research *compiled by the bank on 20 November 2018

26 November 2018

2

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TCS Group

Russia

Financials: Banks

 

Disclosures

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26 November 2018

3

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TCS Group

 

 

 

Russia

 

 

 

Financials: Banks

 

 

 

 

Issuer Specific Disclosures

 

 

 

 

Disclosure checklist

 

 

 

 

Company

Ticker

Recent price

Disclosure

 

TCS Group

TCS LI

17.30 (USD)

4a

4a. VTB Capital or an affiliated company is a provider of liquidity and/or a market maker in the securities of the relevant issuer at the time this research report was published. VTB Capital or an affiliated company will buy and sell securities of the relevant issuer on a principal basis.

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26 November 2018

4

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TCS Group

Russia

Financials: Banks

 

The below table details the distribution of VTB Capital’s Investment Ratings on the basis of the three-tier recommendation system described above.

VTB Capital Ratings Distribution

Investment Rating Distribution

Buy

68

59%

Hold

35

30%

Sell

6

5%

Restricted

0

0%

Not Rated

0

0%

Under Review

7

6%

 

116

 

Source: VTB Capital Research as at 31 October 2018

Ratings Distribution for Investment Banking Relationships

Buy

16

76%

Hold

2

10%

Sell

0

0%

Restricted

0

0%

Not Rated

0

0%

Under Review

3

14%

 

21

 

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26 November 2018

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