Учебные пособия по ОРГ / Основы российской государстве

О,1-5A 0-,,*.,(-. :-,$#а0,)5!11-,)*

-$@/&(8. О@G!7&/ (3B"!0(? !-&!-&,!00$0аB"0/+ >(-Y(12(0, 0а1*$&(,, $@2а>а5& *#!1)*+1-,)34; (+ C2!.!0&/ $>0$#$ &(1а, 0а1*(.!*, C2!7&*$0/, ,!>B& -!@? $>(0а7$,$ 1*( &$J>!-&,!00/+ B-2$,(?+.

И0>(,(>Bа2)0$-&) C2!.!0&$, -$Y(а2)0/+ -(-&!. 0а>!2?!& 3а7$0$.!*0$-&( (+ 1$,!>!0(? (30а- "а2)0$8 ,а*(а&(,0$-&)5 ( 1!-/0!#!2!11-,)34, 1$C&$.B , >(0а.(7! $@G!7&$, -$Y(а2)0$8 1*(*$>/ *!#B2?*0/! ( -2B"а80/! Dа7&$*/ (#*а5& *а,0$,!2(7B5 *$2) ( (.!5& $@A!! 1*$(-+$J>!0(!. Д(- 0а.(7а J! $@G!7&$, D(3("!-7$8 1*(*$>/ 2(@$ >!&!*.(0(-&("0а, 2(@$ 1*( 1$?,2!0(( -2B"а80$-&( 0!$1*!>!2!00$-&) (.!!& >*B#$8 .!+а0(3. ,$30(70$,!0(?, "!. *!#B2?*0/! 3а7$0$.!*0$-&(.

За7$0/ -$Y(а2)0/+ -(-&!. -$3>а5&-? 25>).( ( (3.!0?5&-? ,.!-&! - C,$25Y(!8 $@A!-&,а. А 30а"(&, 7$07*!&0а? *!а2(3аY(? C&(+ 3а7$0$, .$J!& (.!&) 0а"а2$ ( 7$0!Y -BA!-&,$,а0(?, а ( 1*( (+ (3B"!0(( ,$--$3>а0(! &!+ J! B-2$,(8 .$J!& @/&) 3а&*B>0(&!2)0/. (2( 1*(0Y(1(а2)0$ 0!,$3-

.$J0/.. К*$.! &$#$, 0!?-0$, 0а-7$2)7$ >2(&!2)0а 1а.?&) -$Y(а2)0/+ $@G!7&$,. И0/.( -2$,а.(, 0а 7а7$! ,*!.!00$! *а--&$?0(? 0BJ0$ B8&( , 1*$H2$!, "&$@/ !#$ ,2(?0(! .$J0$ @/2$ @/ (#0$*(- *$,а&) 1*( *а--.$&*!0(( 0а-&$?A!#$.

С(-&!./ J!, (3B"а!./! !-&!-&,!00$0аB"0/.( >(-Y(12(0а.(, $@2а>а5& -,$8-&,$. ,$-1*$(3- ,$>(.$-&( – 1*( $>(0а7$,/+ 0а"а2)0/+ ( ,0!H0(+ B-2$,(?+ 2(@$ (+ >(0а.(7а, 2(@$ !! ,!*$?&- 0$-&0/! +а*а7&!*(-&(7( $7а3/,а5&-? (>!0&("0/.( 1*( ,-!+ 1$,&$*а+. В C&$. -./-2! 1*!>/-&$- *(? -(-&!./ 0! (.!!& 30а"!0(?.

П$,!>!0(! C2!.!0&$, -$Y(а2)0/+ -(-&!. +а*а7&!*(3B!&-? Y!2?.( ( .$&(,а.( 7 >!8-&,(5, ,$3-

.$J0$-&)5 ,/@$*а *а32("0/+ ,а*(а0&$, >!8-&,(8. В-d C&$ $@B-2$,2(,а!& 30а"(.$-&) Y!2$#$ *?>а Y!00$-&0/+ Dа7&$*$,. В>$@а,$7 ,/@$* &$#$ (2( (0$#$ -Y!0а*(? >!8-&,(? >!2а!& а7&Bа2)0/. 1*$- #0$3 !#$ *!3B2)&а&$,. Да00/! 1$0?&(? 0! 1*(.!0(./ 1*( $1(-а0(( $@G!7&$, D(3("!-7$8 1*(*$>/.

П*( *а3,(&(( ( C,$25Y(( -$Y(а2)0/+ -(-&!. 0!,$3.$J0$ B"!-&) ,-! Dа7&$*/, 7$&$*/! .$#B& $7а3а&) ,2(?0(! 0а *!3B2)&а& >!8-&,(8 (0>(,(>BB.$, , &!7BA(8 .$.!0& ,*!.!0(. В/@$* ,а*(а0- &$, >!8-&,(8 1*$(-+$>(& , >!D(Y(&! (0D$*.аY((, "&$ 3а-&а,2?!& (0>(,(>BB.$, $@*аAа&)-? 2(@$ 7 -$@-&,!00$.B $1/&B, 2(@$ 7 $1/&B >*B#(+, "&$ ( -$-&а,2?!& -B&) 1*$Y!--а $@B"!0(?. В -(-&!.а+ D(3("!-7$8 1*(*$>/ &а7$8 0!$1*!>!2!00$-&( 0!& , 1*(0Y(1!.

Д2? -$Y(а2)0/+ -(-&!. 1*("(0/ ( (+ -2!>-&,(? .$#B& @/&) *а3>!2!0/ 30а"(&!2)0/. (0&!*,а2$. ,*!.!0(, ( 0а2("(! 1*(0Y(1(а2)0$ 0!7$0&*$2(*B!./+ Dа7&$*$, , 1*$.!JB&$"0/! .$.!0&/ ,*!.!- 0( >!2а5& 1*$@2!.а&("0/. ,$3.$J0$-&) 1*?.$#$ 1*!>-7а3а0(? *!3B2)&а&$, 7$07*!&0/+ >!8-&,(8. Д2? -(-&!. D(3("!-7$8 1*(*$>/ B-&а0а,2(,а!&-? 1*?.а? -,?3) .!J>B 1*("(0$8 ( !d -2!>-&,(!..

Н!-.$&*? 0а B7а3а00/! *а32("(?, , 1$-2!>0(! >!-?&(2!&(? 0а.!&(2$-) -@2(J!0(! .!J>B !-&!- -&,!00$0аB"0/.( ( -$Y(а2)0$-#B.а0(&а*0/.( >(-Y(12(0а.(, 7$&$*$! 1$*$>(2$ 0$,/! 0а1*а,2!- 0(? 0аB7(. Та7, $7а3а2$-) ,$-&*!@$,а00/. 1*(.!0!0(! .!&$>$, -&а&(-&("!-7$8 D(3(7( >2? $1(-а- 0(? -$Y(а2)0/+ -(-&!.. П*( *а3,(&(( -2$J0$$*#а0(3$,а00/+ -$Y(а2)0/+ -(-&!., -$-&$?A(+ (3 @$2)H$#$ 7$2("!-&,а C2!.!0&$,, 1*$(-+$>(& -а.$B-*!>0!0(! (+ (0>(,(>Bа2)0/! +а*а7&!*(-&(7. Э&$ 1$3,$2?!& ,,!-&( 1$0?&(! +а*а7&!*0$#$ (0>(,(>BB.а (3B"а!.$8 -$Y(а2)0$8 -(-&!./ ( 1*(- 1(-а&) !.B $1*!>!2d00/! *!#B2?*0/! 3а7$0$.!*0$-&(, а B"d& (0>(,(>Bа2)0$-&( -,!-&( 7 0а2("(5 -2B"а80/+ Dа7&$*$,, ,!*$?&0$-&0/! +а*а7&!*(-&(7( 7$&$*/+ ,0$,) $7а3/,а5&-? $>(0а7$,/.( >2? ,-!+ C2!.!0&$, (2(, 1$ 7*а80!8 .!*!, (+ @$2)H$8 #*B11/. Та7$8 1$>+$> 1$3,$2?!& 1*!$>$2!&) $-0$,0$! 1*!1?&-&,(! 0а 1B&( ,3а(.0$#$ 1*$0(70$,!0(? !-&!-&,!00$0аB"0/+ ( -$Y(а2)0$-#B.а- 0(&а*0/+ >(-Y(12(0, $@B-2$,2!00$! B0(7а2)0$-&)5 7аJ>$#$ (0>(,(>BB.а. В 1$2! 3*!0(? 1$?,- 2?!&-? $@G!7& – +а*а7&!*0/8 (0>(,(>BB., -,$8-&,а 7$&$*$#$ .$J0$ B-&а0$,(&) - 1$3(Y(( $@A!#$ ( 1$,&$*?5A!#$-? , &!*.(0а+ ,!*$?&0$-&(. П*( C&$. ,!*$?&0$-&0$! $1(-а0(! -$Y(а2)0/+ -(-&!. -&а0$,(&-? (30а"а2)0/. ?3/7$. .а&!.а&("!-7$#$ .$>!2(*$,а0(? -$Y(а2)0/+ ?,2!0(8. О>0а7$ .а-

200

V 0а9#!2. ВA9-5A 6$#$X!:- * 0а95*)*! ,)0а1A

7*$-7$1("!-7(! ?,2!0(? , -(-&!.а+ D(3("!-7$8 1*(*$>/ ( -$Y(а2)0/+ -(-&!.а+ (.!5& #2B@$7$! *а32("(!. В3а(.$>!8-&,(! а&$.$,, 0а1*(.!*, (.!!& $&0$-(&!2)0$ 1*$-&/! -,$8-&,а, , &$ ,*!.? 7а7 а0-а.@2) &а7(+ а&$.$, 1*$?,2?!& -2$J0$$*#а0(3$,а00$! 1$,!>!0(! ,-2!>-&,(! 0!&*(,(а2)- 0/+ -,$8-&, 7$$1!*а&(,0/+ CDD!7&$,. В -$Y(а2)0/+ -(-&!.а+ (0>(,(>BB./ (30а"а2)0$ $@2а>а5& "*!3,/"а80$ -2$J0/.( .0$#$12а0$,/.( -,$8-&,а.(, 0$ 1*( (3B"!0(( $1*!>!2!00$#$ -$Y(а2)0$-

#$ ?,2!0(? 1*(+$>(&-? ,/@(*а&), 7а7(! (.!00$ 7а&!#$*(( 0!$@+$>(.$ 1*(0(.а&) ,$ ,0(.а0(!, а 7а7(! , >а00$. 7$07*!&0$. -2B"а! 0! (#*а5& @$2)H$8 *$2(. П*( C&$. , (3B"а!.$. ?,2!0(( .$#B& $7а3а&)-? -BA!-&,!00/.( >,! (2( @$2!! 7а&!#$*(8, 7$&$*/! 1$>"(0?5&-? *а30/. 3а7$0а..

О@-B>(. C&( ,$1*$-/ 0а 1*(.!*! 1*$@2!./ ,/@$*а ( 1*(0?&(? *!H!0(8, "&$ ?,2?!&-? $-0$,- 0/. ,$1*$-$. , 1$-&*$!0(( >(0а.(7( 25@$8 -$Y(а2)0$8 -(-&!./. К2а--("!-7а? &!$*(? 1*(0?&(? *!H!0(8 $1(*а!&-? 0а 1$0?&(? -$$&0$H!0(8 1*($*(&!&а ( DB07Y(( 1$2!30$-&(, 7$&$*а? 7$2("!- -&,!00$ ,/*аJа!& -$$&0$H!0(? 1*($*(&!&а. О-0$,/,а?-) 0а C&(+ 1$0?&(?+, .$>!2) -&*$#$8 *аY(- $0а2)0$-&( 1$2а#а!&, "&$ ,/@$* $1*!>!2?!&-? Y!2)5 - 0а(,/-H(. 1*($*(&!&$., 7$&$*а? $&,!"а!&

.а7-(.B.B DB07Y(( 1$2!30$-&(. Та7$8 1$>+$>, $>0а7$, ,-&*!"а!& 30а"(&!2)0/! &*B>0$-&(, $@B- -2$,2!00/! DB0>а.!0&а2)0/.( -,$8-&,а.( C2!.!0&$, -$Y(а2)0$8 1*(*$>/.

Л5@$! *!H!0(! >$2J0$ @/&) 1*(0?&$ , &!"!0(! 7$0!"0$#$ 1*$.!JB&7а ,*!.!0(. П*( C&$. 30а- "(&!2)0$! *а30$$@*а3(! ,$3.$J0/+ -$-&$?0(8 -$Y(а2)0$8 -(-&!./ ( $#*а0("!00$-&) ,*!.!0( 0! 1$3,$2?5& (0>(,(>BB.B $>0$30а"0$ 72а--(D(Y(*$,а&) ,0!H0(! >2? 0!#$ B-2$,(? , &!7BA(8 .$-

.!0& (0!$1*!>!2!00$-&) (0D$*.аY(( $ -$-&$?0(( -(-&!./). Д*B#$8 #*а0)5 C&$8 1*$@2!./ ?,2?!&- -? 0!,$3.$J0$-&) -&*$#$8 B1$*?>$"!00$-&( >!8-&,(8 (2( 2$7а2)0/+ Y!2!8 1$ (+ 1*($*(&!&B. В$3-

.$J0/! -$-&$?0(? -(-&!./, @2(37(! 1$ 30а"(.$-&( ( 1$2!30$-&(, .$#B& ?,2?&)-? 0!*а32("(./.( >2? (0>(,(>BB.а 1*( 1*(0?&(( *!H!0(? (0!$1*!>!2!00$-&) 30а"(.$-&( -$@/&(8).

П*(0?&(! *!H!0(? (.!!& 7а7 7$.1$0!0& 30а"(.$-&( C&$#$ *!H!0(?, &а7 ( 7$.1$0!0& B-(2(8, -,?3а00/+ - 1$2B"!0(!. (0D$*.аY((, 0!$@+$>(.$8 >2? !#$ 1*(0?&(?; &.!. 0а 1*$Y!-- 1*(0?&(? *!H!0(? $7а3/,а5& -BA!-&,!00$! ,2(?0(! $@а Dа7&$*а. П*("!. ,*!.?, ,/>!2?!.$! 0а 1*(0?&(! *!H!0(?, ?,2?!&-? 0! 0!3а,(-(./. 1а*а.!&*$., а *!3B2)&а&$. 7$.1*$.(--а B7а3а00/+ Dа7&$*$,. В,!>!0(! 1$0?&(? $&0$H!0(8 1*($*(&!&а >2? Dа7&$*а, -,?3а00$#$ - 1$2B"!0(!. (0D$*.аY((, ?,2?!&-? $&7*/&$8 1*$@2!.$8. Р!H!0(! !d 3а&*B>0?!&-? !Ad ( &!., "&$ (0D$*.аY(? $ -$-&$?0(( -(-&!./ -1$-$@0а 0а7а12(,а&)-? (0>(,(>BB.а.(, 1$C&$.B ,2(?0(! 1*!>/-&$*(( (1а.?&() $7а3/- ,а!&-? -BA!-&,!00/., "&$ 1$>0(.а!& ,$1*$- $ 1$0?&(?+ 0а"а2)0/+ B-2$,(8 >2? -(-&!. -$Y(а2)- 0$-#B.а0(&а*0$#$ &(1а.

М$.!0& 1*(0?&(? *!H!0(? ( .$.!0& 1$2B"!0(? !#$ *!3B2)&а&а .$#B& @/&) 30а"(&!2)0$ $&>а- 2!0/ >*B# $& >*B#а ,$ ,*!.!0(, "&$ *а3*BHа!& 1*?.B5 ,3а(.$-,?3) .!J>B 0(.( , -(2B 0а2("(? 0!7$0&*$2(*B!./+ Dа7&$*$, .!J>B C&(.( >,B.? .$.!0&а.( (0а*BH!0(! 0!1$-*!>-&,!00$8 -,?- 3( 1*("(0 ( (+ -2!>-&,(8). В C&$. -2B"а! $-0$,$8 1*(0?&(? *!H!0(? ?,2?!&-? 0! -&$2)7$ ,/@$* 7$0!"0$8 Y!2(, -7$2)7$ ,/@$* -Y!0а*(? !d >$-&(J!0(? (>$-&(J!0(? 1$-2!>$,а&!2)0$-&( 1*$.!- JB&$"0/+ Y!2!8). Ф$*.(*$,а0(! ,$3.$J0/+ -Y!0а*(!, >!8-&,(8 (0>(,(>BB.а 1*$(-+$>(& , B-- 2$,(?+ 0!$1*!>!2d00$-&( ( >!D(Y(&! (0D$*.аY((. Т$#>а 1*!>/-&$*(? *а3,(&(? -(-&!./ (#*а!& 725"!,B5 *$2) ( $7а3/,а!& 0!1$-*!>-&,!00$! ,2(?0(! 0а 1*$Y!-- 1*(0?&(? *!H!0(?.

М$J0$ ,/>!2(&) >,а 1*(0Y(1(а2)0$ *а32("0/+ 1B&( D$*.(*$,а0(? -Y!0а*(!, >$-&(J!0(? @2(Jа8H(+ Y!2!8. П!*,/8 – C&$ -а.$$@B"!0(! (0>(,(>BB.$,, &.!. 0а7$12!0(! 30а0(8 $ 1*а,(2а+ 1$,!>!0(? , 7$07*!&0/+ B-2$,(?+, 7$&$*/! 1$3,$2?5& (3@!Jа&) $H(@$7 ( 1*(,$>?& 7 J!2а!./. *!3B2)&а&а. (0а7$12!0(! -$@-&,!00$#$ $1/&а). В&$*$8 1B&) -,?3а0 - 7$$1!*а&(,0/. ,3а(.$>!8- -&,(!. (0>(,(>BB.$,, 7$&$*$! ,/*аJа!&-? 7а7 , D$*.(*$,а0(( 1*а,(2 1$,!>!0(?, &а7 ( , 1*(- 0?&((, а &а7J! , 1$>>!*J7! C&(+ 1*а,(2 -$$@A!-&,$. (7$22!7&(,0/8 $1/&). С5>а $&0$-?&-? (

201

О,1-5A 0-,,*.,(-. :-,$#а0,)5!11-,)*

-$Y(а2)0$-.$*а2)0/! (7B2)&B*0/!) 0$*./ 1$,!>!0(? 25>!8 , $1*!>!2!00/+ -(&BаY(?+. С2!>B!& $@*а&(&) ,0(.а0(!, "&$ - &$"7( 3*!0(? $&>!2)0$#$ (0>(,(>BB.а 7B2)&B*0/! 0$*./ 0! -*а,0(,а- 5&-? - >*B#(.( -Y!0а*(?.( !#$ >!8-&,(8 , *а.7а+ -$$&0$H!0(8 1*($*(&!&а, а 0$-?& +а*а7&!* $@?- 3а&!2)0$-&(, &.!. ?,2?5&-? C2!.!0&а.( -$Y(а2)0$#$ 1$*?>7а. В "а-&0$-&(, 0а*BH!0(! 7B2)&B*0/. 0$*., 1*(0?&/+ , $@A!-&,!, -$3>аd& 1*!1?&-&,(! 7 1$2B"!0(5 @$2!! ,/-$7$#$ -$Y(а2)0$#$ *а0#а ( &!. -а./. B-2$J0?!& >$-&(J!0(! B-1!+а , 7$07*!&0$8 >!?&!2)0$-&( (0>(,(>BB.а.

О&0$-(&!2)0$ .!+а0(3.а D$*.(*$,а0(? 7B2)&B*0/+ 0$*. 1$,!>!0(? -BA!-&,B!& 0!-7$2)7$ .$- >!2!8. На(@$2!! *а3,(&$8 ?,2?!&-? .$>!2) ,$-1*$(3,!>!0(? >!8-&,(8 $&>!2)0/+ (0>(,(>BB.$,, 7$&$*/! >$-&(#2( B-1!+а ( $@2а>а5& ,/-$7(. -$Y(а2)0/. *а0#$. (interdependence via significant others), >2? 7*а&7$#$ $@3$*а !d *а3,(&(? ( .$>(D(7аY(8. Д*B#а? .$>!2) 1*!>1$2а#а!& ,$-1*$(3- ,!>!0(! -&!*!$&(1$, 1$,!>!0(? $1*!>!2!00$8 #*B11/, 7$&$*а? (.!!& 0а(,/-H(8 *а0# , -$Y(B.! (interdependence via reference groups). П*( C&$. -Y!0а*(( B-1!H0$#$ 1$,!>!0(? 0а7а12(,а5&-? , *а.7а+ &а7(+ #*B11, "&$ 1$3,$2?!& *а--.а&*(,а&) (+ 7а7 -$Y(а2)0/8 7а1(&а2. Э&( $-$@!00$-&( 1*(0?&(? *!H!0(8 ?,2?5&-? Dа7&("!-7( $@$-0$,а0(!. &$#$ Dа7&а, "&$ >2? $1(-а0(? -(-&!., #>! "!2$,!"!-7(8 Dа7&$* (#*а!& 725"!,B5 *$2) (, "а-&0$-&( -$Y(а2)0/! -(-&!./) &*!@B!&-? *а3,(&(! -$$&,!&-&,B5A(+ 1$0?&(8 ( -$@-&,!00$#$ .а&!.а&("!-7$#$ а11а*а&а.

О@$@Aа? ,/H!-7а3а00$!, .$J0$ 1*(8&( 7 ,/,$>B, "&$ *а3,(&(! &!$*(( -(-&!. - .$&(,аY(!8

.$J!& -2BJ(&) $&1*а,0$8 &$"7$8 >2? -@2(J!0(? >,B+ 72а--$, 0аB7( – !-&!-&,!00$0аB"0/+ ( -$Y(- а2)0$-#B.а0(&а*0/+ >(-Y(12(0.

МЕТОДЫ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ ВЫЗОВОВ

В &!$*(( -$Y(а2)0$-C7$0$.("!-7$8 >(0а.(7( ,/>!2?5&-? &*( $-0$,0/+ &(1а 1*$#0$3(*$,а- 0(? -$Y(а2)0$-C7$0$.("!-7$8 >!8-&,(&!2)0$-&(.

П!*,/8 &(1 – C&$ 1*!>,(>!0(! -$@/&(8, 7$&$*/! 1*!>-&а,2?5&-? -$@/&(?.( (**!#B2?*0/-

.(. П*(.!*$. .$#B& -2BJ(&) *а3.!*/ B*$Jа? (2( 1*$(3,$>-&,а 0а $1*!>!2!00B5 >а&B, *а3.!*/ C7-1$*&а, B*$,!0) Y!0 , $1*!>!2!00/8 .$.!0& ,*!.!0( ( &.>. П$-7$2)7B C&( -$@/&(? ?,2?5&-? $>- 0$7*а&0/.(, 7$07*!&0/.(, -а.( 1$ -!@! $0( 0! .$#B& @/&) ,725"!0/ , &B (2( (0B5 D$*.B2B 3а7$- 0а (2( *?>а 3а7$0$,. Д2? &$#$ "&$@/ 1*!>,(>!&) (+ &$"0$, 0BJ0$ *а-1$2а#а&) 1$"&( (>!а2)0/. 30а- 0(!. +$3?8-&,!00$#$ 1$2$J!0(? , (-+$>0/8 .$.!0& ( 1$"&( ,-!8 -$,$7B10$-&( 3а7$0$.!*0$-&!8 +$>а $7*BJа5A(+ -$@/&(8. Т$2)7$ &$#>а .$J0$ 1*!>-7а3а&) (0&!*!-B5A(! -$@/&(? 7а7 *!3B2)&а& 1!*!7*!A(,а0(? C&(+ 3а7$0$.!*0$-&!8. П$C&$.B &а7$8 &(1 1*!>,(>!0(? 1*!>-&а,2?!&-? ( 0а(@$- 2!! &*B>0/., ( 0а 1*а7&(7! , @$2)H(0-&,! -2B"а!, &а7$! 1*!>,(>!0(! $7а3/,а!&-? $H(@$"0/..

В&$*$8 &(1 1*!>,(>!0(? (.!!& .!-&$ &$#>а, 7$#>а *!") (>!& $ 1*$#0$3(*$,а0(( 0а-&B12!0(? &$#$ (2( (0$#$ @$2!! (2( .!0!! *!#B2?*0$ 1$,&$*?5A!#$-? -$@/&(?. П*(.!*$. .$#B& -2BJ(&) 1*!>-7а3а0(? 0а-&B12!0(? C7$0$.("!-7(+ 7*(3(-$,, ?,2!0(8, -,?3а00/+ - -!3$00/.( 7$2!@а0(- ?.( 7$0G507&B*/, ( &.>. П*!>-7а3а0(? &а7$#$ *$>а &а7J! ,!-).а &*B>0/. Н$ 1$-7$2)7B (>!& *!") $ 1*!>-7а3а0(( -$@/&(?, ,$30(7а5A!#$ @$2!! (2( .!0!! 3а7$0$.!*0$ ( 1!*($>("!-7(, , D$*.! B&,!*J>!0(? ,!*$?&0$#$ 0а-&B12!0(? (2( 0!0а-&B12!0(? , (3,!-&0/8 1!*($> ,*!.!0(, 1*!>,(>!- 0(! &а7$#$ &(1а $7а3/,а!&-? @$2!! >$-&B10/., "!. 1*!>,(>!0(! 1!*,$#$ &(1а.

Т*!&(8 &(1 1*!>,(>!0(? 3а725"а!&-? , 1*$#0$3(*$,а0(( $@A!#$ *а3,(&(? &!+ (2( (0/+ -$- Y(а2)0$-C7$0$.("!-7(+ &!0>!0Y(8. Та7$! 1*!>,(>!0(! 0! 2$7а2(3B!& 1*!>-7а3/,а!./! -$@/&(? &$"0$ ,$ ,*!.!0(, $0$ .$J!& >а,а&) 2(H) 1*(@2(3(&!2)0/! !-&!-&,!00/! #*а0(Y/ *а3,(&(? &!0- >!0Y(8. П*(.!*а.( &а7$#$ *$>а 1*!>,(>!0(? .$#B& -2BJ(&) 1*!>-7а3а0(? *$-&а/B1а>7а &!+ (2(

202

V 0а9#!2. ВA9-5A 6$#$X!:- * 0а95*)*! ,)0а1A

(0/+ $&*а-2!8 +$3?8-&,а, $@A!#$ 1$,/Hа&!2)0$#$ (2(, 0а$@$*$&, 1$0(Jа&!2)0$#$ >,(J!0(? Y!0 ( &. >. Э&$& &(1 1*!>,(>!0(?, 1$-,(>(.$.B, 0а(@$2!! >$-&B1!0 1*( -$,*!.!00$. B*$,0! -$Y(а2)- 0$-C7$0$.("!-7$#$ 30а0(?.

Та7(. $@*а3$. -2!>B!& (-1$2)3$,а&) 7а"!-&,!00/! +а*а7&!*(-&(7(, $1(-/,а5A(! $@A(! 3а7$- 0$.!*0$-&( 1*$&!7а0(? -$@/&(8 ( -1$-$@-&,B5A(! 1*(0?&(5 $@G!7&(,0$--B@G!7&(,0/+ B1*а,- 2!0"!-7(+ *!H!0(8. В 1*а7&(7! 1*$#0$3 – C&$ >$7B.!0&, D(7-(*B5A(8 ,$3.$J0B5 -&!1!0) >$-&(- J!0(? Y!2!8 , 3а,(-(.$-&( $& -1$-$@а @B>BA(+ >!8-&,(8 (2( $&-B&-&,(? 7а7(+-2(@$ >!8-&,(8. П$ $@G!7&а. 1*(.!0!0(? 1*$#0$3/ 1$>*а3>!2?5&-? 0а: -$Y(а2)0/! (>!.$#*аD("!-7(8, 1$&*!@0$-&!8 ( B*$,0? J(30(, $@*а3$,а0(?, 3>$*$,)?, 7B2)&B*/); C7$0$.("!-7(! (-&*B7&B*а ( >(0а.(7а 1*$(3- ,$>-&,а, Y!0/, D(0а0-/, *а3,(&(! B1*а,2!0(?, (0-&(&BY($0а2)0/! (3.!0!0(?). Та7J! *а32("а5& 0аB"0$-&!+0("!-7(! ( (00$,аY($00/!, C7$2$#("!-7(! 1*$#0$3/. П*$#0$3(*$,а0(! 1*(.!0?!&-? 0а 1*!>,а*(&!2)0$8 -&а>(( *а3*а@$&7( 7$0Y!1Y(( C7$0$.("!-7$#$ *а3,(&(? 0а 1!*-1!7&(,B.

П*$#0$3(*$,а0(! ,/1$20?!& &*( $-0$,0/+ DB07Y(( ( (.!!& &*( -&а>((: 1*!>,(>!0(! ,$3.$J- 0/+ &!0>!0Y(8 (3.!0!0(8 , @B>BA!. &$8 -D!*/ >!?&!2)0$-&( ($@G!7&а, 1*$Y!--а), - 7$&$*/.( 0BJ- 0$ (.!&) >!2$, ,/?,2!0(! 3а7$0$.!*0$-&!8, &!0>!0Y(8, Dа7&$*$,, $@B-2$,2(,а5A(+ C&( 1!*!.!0/ ((--2!>$,а&!2)-7а? -&а>(?); ,/?,2!0(! а2)&!*0а&(,0/+ ,а*(а0&$, ,$3>!8-&,(? 0а &*а!7&$*(5 *а3- ,(&(? $@G!7&а , *!3B2)&а&! 1*(0?&(? &!+ (2( (0/+ *!H!0(8, $Y!07а 1$-2!>-&,(8 *!а2(3аY(( C&(+ *!H!0(8 (-&а>(? $@$-0$,а0(? B1*а,2!0"!-7(+ *!H!0(8); $Y!07а +$>а ( 1$-2!>-&,(8 ,/1$20!0(? *!H!0(8, 0!1*!>,(>!00/+ (3.!0!0(8 ,0!H0!8 -*!>/, "&$@/ -,$!,*!.!00$ 7$$*>(0(*$,а&) *!H!- 0(? , -2B"а! 0!$@+$>(.$-&( (-&а>(? -2!J!0(? ( 7$**!7Y((). Э&( &*( DB07Y(( ( -&а>(( ,3а(.0$ 1!*!12!&!0/ ( ?,2?5&-? -$-&а,0/.( C2!.!0&а.( B1*а,2!0"!-7$8 >!?&!2)0$-&( , 25@$8 -D!*!.

В B-2$,(?+, 7$#>а $-$@$ $-&*$ -&$(& ,$1*$- $@ а7&(,0$. ,.!Hа&!2)-&,! , +$> -$@/&(8 -$Y(а2)- 0$-C7$0$.("!-7$8 -*!>/ ( ,$1*$- $ 1*!>,(>!0(( +$>а 1$-2!>B5A(+ -$@/&(8, 1*$@2!.а 1*$#0$3а (.!!& $-$@$! 30а"!0(!. Д2? 1*$#0$3а -BA!-&,!00/ &*( C2!.!0&а: 1!*!+$> $& -$@/&(8, >а00/+ , $1/&!, 7 -$@/&(?., 7$&$*/! !A! 0! >а0/ , 0!.; 1!*!+$> 7 -$@/&(?., 7$&$*/! 0! >а0/ 0! &$2)7$ 1$&$.B, "&$ $0( !A! 0а. 0! (3,!-&0/, 0$ ( 1$&$.B, "&$ $0( !A! 0! -$,!*H(2(-); 1!*!+$> 0! 1*$- (3,$2)0/8, а 0аB"0$ $@$-0$,а00/8, $1(*а5A(8-? 0а B-&а0$,2!00B5 >$-&а&$"0B5 >2? -BJ>!0(? ,!*$?&0$-&) ,/+$>а -$@/&(? (2( -$@/&(8.

ЭDD!7&(,0$-&) 1*$#0$3(*$,а0(? , 30а"(&!2)0$8 -&!1!0( 3а,(-(& $& 1*а,(2)0$-&( ,/@$*а .!- &$>а 1*$#0$3(*$,а0(?. П$> .!&$>а.( 1*$#0$3(*$,а0(? -2!>B!& 1$0(.а&) -$,$7B10$-&) 1*(!.$, ( -1$-$@$, ./H2!0(?, 1$3,$2?5A(+ 0а $-0$,! а0а2(3а *!&*$-1!7&(,0/+ >а00/+, C73$#!00/+ (,0!H0(+) ( C0>$#!00/+ (,0B&*!00(+) -,?3!8 $@G!7&а 1*$#0$3(*$,а0(?, а &а7J! (+ (3.!*!0(8 , *а.7а+ *а--.а&*(,а!.$#$ ?,2!0(? (2( 1*$Y!--а ,/,!-&( -BJ>!0(? $1*!>!2!00$8 >$-&$,!*0$-&( $&0$-(&!2)0$ !#$ ($@G!7&а) @B>BA!#$ *а3,(&(?.

В0а-&$?A!! ,*!.? 0а-"(&/,а!&-? -,/H! >,B+ >!-?&7$, .!&$>$, 1*$#0$3(*$,а0(?. В -2B"а?+, 7$#>а 0!,$3.$J0$ B"!-&) ,2(?0(! .0$#(+ Dа7&$*$, (3-3а 30а"(&!2)0$8 -2$J0$-&( $@G!7&а 1*$#0$- 3(*$,а0(?, (-1$2)3B5&-? (0>(,(>Bа2)0/! ( 7$22!7&(,0/! C7-1!*&0/! $Y!07(. На1*(.!*, .!&$> (0&!*,)5, .!&$> «Д!2)D(», .!&$> .$3#$,$#$ H&B*.а, .а&*("0/8 .!&$> ( .!&$> 7$.(--(8, .!&$> а0а2(3а (!*а*+(8.

В#*B11B .а&!.а&("!-7(+ .!&$>$, ,+$>?& .!&$>/ C7-&*а1$2?Y((, C7-1!*&0/+ $Y!0$7 ( .$>!- 2(*$,а0(?.

С1!Y(D("!-7(. .!&$>$. 1*$#0$3(*$,а0(? ?,2?!&-? -Y!0а*0/8 1*$#0$3 – C&$ -,$!#$ *$>а .!&$> $1(-а0(? 2$#("!-7( 1$-2!>$,а&!2)0$#$ 1*$Y!--а, -$@/&(? (-+$>? (3 -2$J(,H(8-? -(&BаY((. О1(- -а0(! -Y!0а*(!, ,!>!&-? - B"!&$. ,*!.!00/+ $Y!0$7. О-0$,0$! 0а30а"!0(! -Y!0а*(? – $1*!>!2!-

203

О,1-5A 0-,,*.,(-. :-,$#а0,)5!11-,)*

0(! #!0!*а2)0$8 Y!2( *а3,(&(? 1*$#0$3(*B!.$#$ $@G!7&а ( D$*.B2(*$,а0(! 7*(&!*(!, >2? $Y!07( ,!*+0(+ B*$,0!8 «>!*!,а Y!2!8». СY!0а*(( $@/"0$ *а3*а@а&/,а5&-? 0а $-0$,! >а00/+ 1*!>,а*(- &!2)0$#$ 1*$#0$3а ( (-+$>0/+ .а&!*(а2$,: &!+0(7$-C7$0$.("!-7(+ +а*а7&!*(-&(7 ( 1$7а3а&!2!8 $-0$,0/+ 1*$Y!--$, 1*$(3,$>-&,!00$8 ( 0аB"0$8 @а3/ >2? *!H!0(? 1$-&а,2!00$8 Y!2(.

СY!0а*(8 – C&$ 7а*&(0а, $&$@*аJа5Aа? 1$-2!>$,а&!2)0$! >!&а2)0$! *!H!0(! 3а>а"(, ,/?,- 2!0(! ,$3.$J0/+ 1*!1?&-&,(8, $@0а*BJ!0(! -!*)!30/+ 0!>$-&а&7$,, - &!. "&$@/ 1*!>*!H(&) ,$- 1*$- $ ,$3.$J0$. 1*!7*аA!0(( 0а"а&/+ (2( 3а,!*H!0(( 1*$,$>(./+ *а@$& 1$ 1*$#0$3(*B!.$.B $@G!7&B. СY!0а*(8, 1$ 7$&$*$.B >$2J!0 -$-&а,2?&)-? 1*$#0$3 *а3,(&(? $@G!7&а (2( 1*$Y!--$,, >$2J!0 -$>!*Jа&) , -!@! ,$1*$-/ *а3,(&(? 0! &$2)7$ 0аB7( ( &!+0(7(, 0$ ( C7$0$.(7(, ,0!H0!8 ( ,0B&*!00!8 1$2(&(7(. П$C&$.B -Y!0а*(( >$2J0/ *а3*а@а&/,а&)-? ,/-$7$7,а2(D(Y(*$,а00/.( -1!Y(а2(-&а.( -$$&,!&-&,B5A!#$ 1*$D(2? 1*$#0$3(*B!.$#$ $@G!7&а. СY!0а*(8 1$ -,$!8 $1(-а- &!2)0$-&( ?,2?!&-? а77B.B2?&$*$. (-+$>0$8 (0D$*.аY((, 0а $-0$,! 7$&$*$8 >$2J0а -&*$(&)-? ,-? *а@$&а 1$ *а3,(&(5 1*$#0$3(*B!.$#$ $@G!7&а.

П*$#0$3(*$,а0(! Dа7&("!-7( 1*!>$-&а,2?!& 0$,B5 (0D$*.аY(5, "&$ -1$-$@-&,B!& @$2!! 7а"!- -&,!00$8 *а3*а@$&7! -&*а&!#(( *а3,(&(?, $1*!>!2!0(5 $-0$,0/+ 0а1*а,2!0(8 -$Y(а2)0$-C7$0$.(- "!-7$8 1$2(&(7( ( ,/*а@$&7! 7$07*!&0/+ .!* 1$ !! *!а2(3аY((.

ז ה҈ѴғҀ҉҈Ѵ҆җ҈ѴҤ ѵѻѿ҉ҊѴҌ҈҉Ҍҍҗ ҋ҉ҌҌҀҀ ҉Ҍ҈҉Ѷ҈ҙѻ Ҋҋ҉ѵ҆ѻ҇ҙ Ҏѷҋ҉ѿҙ Ҁ Ѷҙѿ҉Ѷҙ

НАЦИОНАЛЬНАЯ СИЛА И ВЫЗОВЫ НАЦИОНАЛЬНОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ

В 0а"а2! XXI ,. -*!>( $@A!-(-&!.0/+ 1$0?&(8 $-$@$! .!-&$ 3а0(.а5& 7а&!#$*(( «@!3$1а-- 0$-&)» ( «0аY($0а2)0а? @!3$1а-0$-&)». Э&$ -,?3а0$ - B-2$J0!0(!. *а3,(&(? "!2$,!"!-&,а, B,!2(- "!0(!. 1*!>.!&$, .а&!*(а2)0$#$ .(*а, *а-1*$-&*а0!0(!. ?>!*0$#$ ( >*B#$#$ $*BJ(? .а--$,$#$ B0("&$J!0(?, 1$?,2!0(!. 0$,/+ $1а-0/+ 3а@$2!,а0(8, .!J>B0а*$>0/. &!**$*(3.$.. П*(.!0!- 0(! 7$.1)5&!*$,, ,/-$7(+ &!+0$2$#(8, #2$@а2(3аY(? D(0а0-$,/+ */07$, 1*(,!2( 7 B-7$*!0(5 &$,а*0$->!0!J0$#$ $@*аA!0(?, B,!2("!0(5 .а-H&а@$, 1!*!2(,а 7а1(&а2а. Э&( 1*$Y!--/, -1$-$@- -&,B? C7$0$.("!-7$.B *$-&B, , &$ J! ,*!.? 1$,/Hа5& 30а"(.$-&) Dа7&$*а *(-7а ( *а-H(*?5& 3$0B $1а-0$-&( 0! &$2)7$ , @(30!-!, 0$ ( , DB07Y($0(*$,а0(( #$-B>а*-&,а. В -2B"а! 7*(3(-а , $>0$. *!- #($0! 12а0!&/ $0 @/-&*$ 1!*!.!Aа!&-? , >*B#(!, 7а7 C&$ @/2$, 0а1*(.!*, , 7$0Y! 1997 #$>а, 7$#>а D(0а0-$,/8 7*(3(- , Ю#$-В$-&$"0$8 А3(( 1$>-&!#0B2 7*(3(- , Р$--((, а 3а&!., "!*!3 *$--(8-7(8 >!D$2&, 3а&*$0B2 ( C7$0$.(7B *а3,(&/+ -&*а0.

П$C&$.B 0! -2B"а80$ .0$#(! -&*а0/ *а3*а@а&/,а5& -&*а&!#(( 0аY($0а2)0$8 @!3$1а-0$-&(. В 7$0Y!1Y(( 0аY($0а2)0$8 @!3$1а-0$-&( Р$--(8-7$8 Ф!>!*аY(( 0аY($0а2)0а? @!3$1а-0$-&) 1$0(-

.а!&-? 7а7 3аA(A!00$-&) J(30!00$ ,аJ0/+ (0&!*!-$, #*аJ>а0, $@A!-&,а ( #$-B>а*-&,а, а &а7J! 0аY($0а2)0/+ Y!00$-&!8 ( $@*а3а J(30( $& H(*$7$#$ -1!7&*а ,0!H0(+ ( ,0B&*!00(+ B#*$3, *а32("- 0/+ 1$ -,$!8 1*(*$>! (1$2(&("!-7(+, ,$!00/+, C7$0$.("!-7(+, (0D$*.аY($00/+, C7$2$#("!-7(+ ( >*.), 1*( C&$. 725"!,а? *$2) , $@!-1!"!0(( 0аY($0а2)0$8 @!3$1а-0$-&( $&,$>(&-? C7$0$.(7!.

Б!3$1а-0$-&) $>0$#$ #$-B>а*-&,а, >аJ! &а7$#$ @$2)H$#$, 7а7 США, К(&а8, Р$--(?, 0! .$J!& а0а2(3(*$,а&)-? ,0! -,?3( - @!3$1а-0$-&)5 >*B#(+ -&*а0. В .(*! 0!& 1$20$-&)5 -а.$>$-&а&$"- 0/+ #$-B>а*-&,. Е-&) #$-B>а*-&,а, 7$&$*/! A!>*$ 0а>!2!0/ 1*(*$>0/.( @$#а&-&,а.(, >*B#(! , @$2)H!8 .!*! *а-1$2а#а5& (00$,аY($00/.( &!+0$2$#(?.(. НаY($0а2)0а? @!3$1а-0$-&) 7аJ>$#$

204

V 0а9#!2. ВA9-5A 6$#$X!:- * 0а95*)*! ,)0а1A

#$-B>а*-&,а $1(*а!&-?, - $>0$8 -&$*$0/, 0а (.!5A(8-? 1$&!0Y(а2, - >*B#$8 – $0а 0! .$J!& @/&) *!а2(3$,а0а ,0! .!J>B0а*$>0$#$ ,3а(.$>!8-&,(?. П$2(&("!-7а?, C7$0$.("!-7а? ( ,$!00а? -(2/ ( -а.$>$-&а&$"0$-&) #$-B>а*-&, ,3,!H(,а5&-? 0а ,!-а+ .!J>B0а*$>0$#$ ,2(?0(? ( (.!5& ,1$20! $1*!>!2!00/! 7$2("!-&,!00/! (3.!*(&!2( ( (0>(7а&$*/.

В 80-! #$>/ >,а>Yа&$#$ ,!7а @/2 *а3*а@$&а0 а0а2(&("!-7(8 .!&$> $Y!07( «0аY($0а2)0$8 -(2/»

#$-B>а*-&,а ( 1*$,!>!0 -*а,0(&!2)0/8 а0а2(3 1*!>2$J!00$#$ (.( (0>!7-а 1$ *?>B *а3,(&/+ -&*а0. НаY($0а2)0а? -(2а #$-B>а*-&,а $1*!>!2?!&-?, ,$-1!*,/+, 7а7 -1$-$@0$-&) ,0$-(&) ,72а> , .!J>B0а*$>0$! -$$@A!-&,$, , !#$ C7$0$.("!-7B5, D(0а0-$,B5 ( 0аB"0$-&!+0("!-7B5 -D!*/ >!?&!2)0$-&(. В$-,&$*/+ – 7а7 -1$-$@0$-&) ,/J(,а0(? , 7*(3(-0/+ .!J>B0а*$>0/+ B-2$,(?+. Д2? $Y!07( ,/J(,а!.$-&( (-1$2)3B5&-? (0>(7а&$*/, +а*а7&!*(3B5A(! #!$#*аD("!-7$! 1$2$J!- 0(! -&*а0/, "(-2!00$-&) 0а-!2!0(?, 1*(*$>0/! B-2$,(?, C7$0$.("!-7(8 1$&!0Y(а2, $@$*$00/8 1$&!0Y(а2, 0аY($0а2)0B5 .$*а2), >(12$.а&("!-7B5 а7&(,0$-&) ( *!3B2)&а&(,0$-&). В-&*!&)(+ – 7а7 -1$-$@0$-&) 1*$>,(#а&) ( 0а,?3/,а&) -,$( 0аY($0а2)0/! (0&!*!-/, $1(*а?-) 0а ,!-) 7$.12!7- 7$.1$0!0&$, 0аY($0а2)0$8 -(2/. У7а3а00/! -$-&а,2?5A(! (-"(-2?5&-? , ,(>! (0>!7-$,, а &*( $-0$,0/+ (0>!7-а а#*!#(*B5&-? , $@A(8, 7$.12!7-0/8 (0>!7- 0аY($0а2)0$8 -(2/ #$-B>а*-&,а.

ГЕОПОЛИТИЧЕСКИЙ СТРАТЕГИЧЕСКИЙ ВЫЗОВ РОССИИ

О>(0 (3 $-0$,0/+ ,$1*$-$,, $1*!>!2?5A(+ C7$0$.("!-7B5 @!3$1а-0$-&), – C&$ $Y!07а Р$-- -(( 7а7 #$-B>а*-&,а, !d #!$1$2(&("!-7$#$ 1$2$J!0(? ( 0аY($0а2)0/+ (0&!*!-$,. Э&$& ,$1*$- &а7 >$ 7$0Yа ( 0! *!H!0. Б!3 $1*!>!2!0(? #!$1$2(&("!-7$#$ 1$2$J!0(? Р$--(( 0!,$3.$J0$ $1*!>!2(&) !! 0аY($0а2)0/! (0&!*!-/, ,0!H055 1$2(&(7B; (.!&) "!&7B5 -&*B7&B*B ,0!H0(+ */07$,, -(-&!.B 1$>>!*J7( 1*$>,(J!0(? C7-1$*&0/+ &$,а*$, $&!"!-&,!00/+ 1*$(3,$>(&!2!8 0а C&( */07( ( , Y!2$. 0!2)3? -$3>а&) CDD!7&(,0B5 */0$"0B5 C7$0$.(7B ( $@!-1!"(&) !! @!3$1а-0$! *а3,(&(!. Г!$1$2(&(- "!-7а? -&*а&!#(? ?,2?!&-? $1*!>!2?5A!8 , -(-&!.! «#!$1$2(&(7а – 0аY($0а2)0/! (0&!*!-/ – C7$0$-

.("!-7а? @!3$1а-0$-&)». Ра-1а> СССР 1$7а3а2, "&$ -D$*.(*$,а,H(8-? #!$1$2(&("!-7(8 -&а&B- 0!

.$J!& @/&) 0!3/@2!./., @$2!! &$#$, $0 .$J!& @/&) *а3*BH!0, !-2( 0!CDD!7&(,0/ C7$0$.("!-7(8 ( 1*а,$,$8 .!+а0(3./ 3аA(&/ 0аY($0а2)0/+ (0&!*!-$, (2( !-2( C&( (0&!*!-/ 2$J0/ ( 0!1*а,(2)0$ -D$*.B2(*$,а0/.

В 0а-&$?A!! ,*!.? -D$*.(*$,а2(-), 1$ 7*а80!8 .!*!, >,! #!$1$2(&("!-7(! -&*а&!#((. О>0а – 1*!>-&а,2!0(! Р$--(( 7а7 !,*$1!8-7$8 -&*а0/, -$$&,!&-&,B5A!8 -$,*!.!00/. C7$0$.("!-7(. -&а0- >а*&а. &(1а ( -&*B7&B*/ C7$0$.(7(, -$Y(а2)0$#$ 1$,!>!0(? 25>!8. Д*B#а? 1*!>2а#а!&-? -&$*$00(7а-

.( !,*а3(8-&,а, -$#2а-0$ 7$&$*$.B, Р$--(? ?,2?!&-? !,*$а3(а&-7$8 -&*а0$8: Р$--(? ( За1а> *!а2(3B5& *а30/! Y(,(2(3аY($00/! .$>!2(, B 0(+ *а30/! -(-&!./ Y!00$-&!8.

Э&(. >,B. #!$1$2(&("!-7(. -&*а&!#(?. -$$&,!&-&,B5& *а30/! .$>!2( *а3,(&(? C7$0$.(7(. П*а,/8 2(@!*а2(3. 0а 1!*,/8 12а0 ,/>,(#а!& 3а>а"B «3аA(&/ 3а,$!,а0(8 .$2$>$#$ *$--(8-7$#$ 7а1(&а2(3.а», (0&!#*аY(5 , .(*$,B5 C7$0$.(7B «"!*!3 -$3>а0(! &*а0-0аY($0а2)0$#$ C7$0$.("!- -7$#$ B72а>а». Н!$!,*а3(8Y/ 1*(>!*J(,а5&-? &*!&)!#$ 1B&( .!J>B 72а--("!-7(. 2(@!*а2(3.$. (

.а*7-(3.$., 7$&$*/8 $0( 0а3/,а5& 0!$*&$>$7-а2)0/. 2(@!*а2(3.$. (2( 0!$*&$>$7-а2)0/. -$Y(- а2(3.$.. С1$* .!J>B -&$*$00(7а.( &!+ (2( (0/+ .$>!2!8 1$-&*$!0(? C7$0$.(7( .$J!& @/&) @!-- 7$0!"0/., 0$ $Y!0(,а&) CDD!7&(,0$-&) C&(+ .$>!2!8 0BJ0$ 0а $-0$,! 1*а7&("!-7(+ *!3B2)&а&$,.

М$J0$ $&"а-&( -$#2а-(&)-? - $Y!07$8, "&$ >!.$7*а&("!-7( 0а-&*$!00/! «1*$3а1а>0(7(» +$- &!2( $"!0) .0$#$, 0$ ->!2а&) .$#2( $"!0) .а2$. О>0а7$ 1*!>-&а,2?!&-?, "&$ $0( 0! B"(&/,а5& $-$@!00$-&( Р$--((, .!0&а2(&!& 0а*$>а, ,(>?& , #$-B>а*-&,! &$2)7$ 32$ ( 7$**B1Y(5, ?,0$ 1*!- B.!0)Hа? !#$ -$3(>а&!2)0/! -1$-$@0$-&(. П$ .0!0(5 (>!$2$#$, 1*а,$#$ >,(J!0(?, 0$-(&!2!.

205

О,1-5A 0-,,*.,(-. :-,$#а0,)5!11-,)*

0аY($0а2)0/+ (0&!*!-$, .$J!& @/&) &$2)7$ «72а-- а7&(,0/+ -а.$-&$?&!2)0/+ 25>!8, 1*(,!*J!0- 0/+ >!.$7*а&("!-7(. Y!00$-&?. ( ,725"!00/. , -,$@$>0B5 */0$"0B5 C7$0$.(7B», а 0! #$-B>а*- -&,$ (2( 7$*1$*аY((. О>0а7$ !-2( -&!1!0) а7&(,0$-&( ( -а.$-&$?&!2)0$-&( $1*!>!2?&) &$2)7$ 1$ @2а#$-$-&$?0(5 10% @$#а&/+ #*аJ>а0, 1$>а,2?5A!! @$2)H(0-&,$ 0а-!2!0(? ,/1а>!& (3 */0$"- 0$8 C7$0$.(7( ( 0! @B>!& -"(&а&)-? 0$-(&!2!. 0аY($0а2)0/+ (0&!*!-$,, а 30а"(&, -а.$ -BA!-&,$- ,а0(! C&$#$ @$2)H(0-&,а @B>!& 1*$&(,$*!"(&) 0аY($0а2)0/. (0&!*!-а..

Н$-(&!2!. 0аY($0а2)0/+ (0&!*!-$, .$J!& @/&) &$2)7$ 0а*$>, ( 3аA(&а !#$ -BA!-&,$,а0(? ( 1$,/H!0(? @2а#$-$-&$?0(? – $>0а (3 #2а,0/+ 3а>а" -&*а&!#(( 0аY($0а2)0$8 @!3$1а-0$-&(. В #!$- -&*а&!#("!-7$. 1$>+$>! !,*а3(8-&,а 0а*?>B - 1*а,(2)0/.( 1$2$J!0(?.( $@ $-$@!00$-&?+ Р$--((

.0$#$ 0!?-0$-&!8, а.@(Y(8, .а2$ 1*а#.а&("!-7$#$ 1$>+$>а. Х$&? -&$*$00(7( !,*а3(8-&,а -"(&а- 5&, "&$ 1*!>2$J!00а? (.( #!$1$2(&(7а -B&) «0! &$2)7$ D(2$-$D-7а? (>!?, C&$ !A! ( (0-&*B.!0& -&*а&!#("!-7$#$ 12а0(*$,а0(?», B 0(+ 0!& $&,!&а 0а 1*$-&/! ,$1*$-/, 7$&$*/! 3а>а5& 0! &$2)7$ (+ $11$0!0&/-2(@!*а2/, 0$ ( &!, 7&$ , &$8 (2( (0$8 .!*! *а3>!2?!& (+ (>!(. Г2а,0/8 ,$1*$-: , "!. (.!00$ $-$@/8 1B&) Р$--(( ( "!. 7$07*!&0$ 0!$*&$>$7-а2)0/8 2(@!*а2(3. , C7$0$.(7! $&2(- "а!&-? $& -2$J(,H(+-? .$>!2!8 */0$"0$#$ +$3?8-&,а? П*(0(.а5& 2( $0( 3а>а"B 1$-&*$!0(? -$- ,*!.!00$8 */0$"0$8 C7$0$.(7(, ( "&$ -"(&а&) !! 1*$$@*а3$., +$&? @/ , -а.$. $@A!. ,(>!? Да2!! 0BJ0$ B"!-&), "&$ D$*.(*$,а0(! ( 1$>>!*Jа0(! -&а&B-а Р$--(( 7а7 !,*а3(8-7$8 >!*Jа,/ ?,2?!&-? $"!0) D(0а0-$,$!.7(., &.!. Р$--(? >$2J0а *а-1$2а#а&) &а7$8 D(0а0-$,$-@а07$,-7$8 -(-&!.$8, 7$- &$*а? .$#2а @/ 7$07B*(*$,а&) 1$ &!+0$2$#(?. ( (0-&*B.!0&а. >!0!J0$-7*!>(&0$8 1$2(&(7( -$ -&*а0а.( - *а3,(&$8 */0$"0$8 C7$0$.(7$8.

С!#$>0? &а7$8 1*$$@*а3 , (3,!-&0$8 .!*! *!а2(3B!&-? , К(&а!, #>! 0а*?>B -$ -&*а&!#("!-7(. 12а0(*$,а0(!. H(*$7$ ( а7&(,0$ (-1$2)3B5&-? (0-&*B.!0&/ */0$"0$8 C7$0$.(7(. К(&а8, -$+*а- 0?? -,$5 D(2$-$D-7$-7B2)&B*0B5 -а.$@/&0$-&), ,$,-! 0! $&*(Yа!& !,*$1!8-7(! Y!00$-&( */0$"- 0/+ $&0$H!0(8, $0 (+ (-1$2)3B!&, 0$ , а>а1&(*$,а00$. 7 -1!Y(D(7! -,$!8 -&*а0/ ,а*(а0&!.

ГЛОБАЛИЗАЦИЯ КАК ВЫЗОВ

Г2$@а2(3аY(? 1$-&!1!00$ 1*!,*аAа!&-? (3 &!*.(0а, +а*а7&!*(3B5A!#$ &*а0-0аY($0а2)0$! DB07Y($0(*$,а0(! C7$0$.(7(, D(0а0-$, ( (0D$*.аY((, , -$Y(а2)0B5 &!$*(5, -BA0$-&) 7$&$*$8 -$-&$(& , #2$@а2)0$8 1$@!>! 7а1(&а2а ( (0D$*.аY($00$8 -,$@$>/ 0а> 0аY($0а2)0/.( (0&!*!-а-

.(, , -$3>а0(( &*а0-0аY($0а2)0/+ -(-&!..

Г2$@а2(3аY(? -,?3а0а - 0!$@+$>(.$-&)5 7$$*>(0аY(( @5>J!&0$-0а2$#$,$8 ( >!0!J0$-7*!>(&- 0$8 1$2(&(7( -&*а0, ,+$>?A(+ , .!J>B0а*$>0/! #2$@а2)0/! -(-&!./. П$> #2$@а2(3аY(!8 1$0(-

.а!&-? $#*$.0$! B,!2("!0(! .а-H&а@$, .(*$,$8 &$*#$,2( ( >*B#(+ 1*$Y!--$, .!J>B0а*$>0$#$ $@.!0а , B-2$,(?+ @$2!! $&7*/&$8, (0&!#*(*$,а00$8, 0! 1*(30а5A!8 #*а0(Y .(*$,$8 C7$0$.(7(. Р!") (>!&, &а7(. $@*а3$., 0! &$2)7$ $ &*а>(Y($00$8 ,0!H0!8 &$*#$,2! &$,а*а.( ( B-2B#а.(, 0$ ( $ ,а25&0/+ 1$&$7а+, >,(J!0(( 7а1(&а2а, $@.!0! &!+0$2$#(?.(, (0D$*.аY(!8, (>!?.(, 1!*!.!- A!0(( 25>!8. М!*$8 .а-H&а@а #2$@а2(3аY(( .$J!& -2BJ(&) $@G!. .!J>B0а*$>0/+ D(0а0-$,/+ ->!2$7, 7$&$*/8 &$2)7$ 0а ,а25&0/+ */07а+ Н)5-Й$*7а !J!>0!,0$ -$-&а,2?!& @$2!! 1,3 &*20 >$22. США, а 0а .!J>B0а*$>0$. */07! Y!00/+ @B.а# >аJ! 1*!,/Hа!& C&B -B..B. Г2$@а2(3аY(?, +$&? ( 3а&*а#(,а!& , 1!*,B5 $"!*!>) C7$0$.(7B, D(0а0-/ ( (0D$*.аY(5, 0$ 0! ?,2?!&-? "(-&$ C7$0$.(- "!-7$8 7а&!#$*(!8. О0а ,725"а!& , -!@? 7$.1$0!0&/ (3 *а30/+ $@2а-&!8 30а0(8 ( 1*а7&(7(, , &$. "(-2! D(2$-$D((, &!$*(( #$-B>а*-&,а, 1*а,$,!>!0(?, 7B2)&B*/ ( &.1.

Г2$@а2(3аY(? – C&$ -(0&!&("!-7а? 7а&!#$*(?, 1*!&!0>B5Aа? 0а $@$@A!0(! C,$25Y($00/+ ( *!,$25Y($00/+ (3.!0!0(8 , $@G!7&(,0$-1*!>.!&0$8 ( (0&!22!7&Bа2)0$-(00$,аY($00$8 >!?&!2)- 0$-&( "!2$,!7а. О0а 1*(3,а0а 1*!>2$J(&) $&>!2)0/. #$-B>а*-&,а. 7$0Y!1Y(5 $-0$,0/+ 7$0&B*$,

206

V 0а9#!2. ВA9-5A 6$#$X!:- * 0а95*)*! ,)0а1A

-,$!#$ *а3,(&(? , *а.7а+ $@A!8 .$>!2( Y(,(2(3аY($00/+ 1*!$@*а3$,а0(8. Н! -2B"а80$ #2$@а- 2(-&-7(! (>!( (0&!0-(,0$ *а3,(,а5&-? 1$-2! *а3,а2а СССР ( *!37$#$ -BJ!0(? -D!*/ -$Y(а2(- -&("!-7$#$ 1B&( *а3,(&(? (0$ 0!2)3? 3а@/,а&) 1*$ К(&а8, 7$&$*/8 1*$>$2Jа!& B-1!H0$ (>&( 1$ 1B&( */0$"0$#$ -$Y(а2(3.а) ( 1*!&!0>B5& 0а 0$,B5 -$Y(а2)0B5 &!$*(5, 1*(3,а00B5 3а1$20(&) ,а7BB. , $-./-2(,а0(( 1*$H2$#$, 0а-&$?A!#$ ( @B>BA!#$ *а3,(&(? "!2$,!"!-&,а.

Ч&$@/ 1$0?&) .а-H&а@/ ( -7$*$-&) *а3,(&(? 1*$Y!--а #2$@а2(3аY((, !#$ .$J0$ 1*!>-&а,(&) 7а7 0а>,(#а5AB5-? ,$20B (00$,аY(8 , &!+0$2$#(?+, , (0D$*.аY((, , &$*#$,2! ( D(0а0-а+, 7$&$*а?

.$J!& -0!-&( (2( $&&!-0(&) , -&$*$0B $&>!2)0/! -2а@/! #$-B>а*-&,а, 0!-1$-$@0/! а>а1&(*$,а&)-? 7 0$,$.B B*$,05 *а3,(&(? Y(,(2(3аY((. О-0$,а #2$@а2(3аY(( – *!37$! B,!2("!0(! #2$@а2)0$#$ 7$07B*!0&0$#$ 1*$-&*а0-&,а, , 1*!>!2а+ 7$&$*$#$ >!8-&,B5& !>(0/! 1*а,(2а 1$,!>!0(?, .!J>B0а- *$>0$! 3а7$0$>а&!2)-&,$ , -D!*! 0а2$#$,, (0,!-&(Y(8, 3аA(&/ -$@-&,!00$-&(, 1!*!.!A!0(? "!2$- ,!"!-7$#$ 7а1(&а2а. В B-2$,(?+ #2$@а2(3аY(( Dа7&$* ,*!.!0( 1*!,*аAа!&-? , .$A0B5 >,(JBAB5 -(2B C7$0$.("!-7$#$ ( -$Y(а2)0$#$ *а3,(&(?, B-7$*?5&-? $@.!0 (0D$*.аY(!8, D(0а0-$,/! ( &$- ,а*0/! 1$&$7(, а 0$,$,,!>!0(? 1$2B"а5& @$2!! H(*$7$! *а-1*$-&*а0!0(!.

П*$Y!-- #2$@а2(3аY(( -2$J!0, , 0!. -$"!&а5&-? 7а7 $@G!7&(,0/! &!0>!0Y(( (1$?,2!0(! 0$- ,/+ &!+0$2$#(8, 7$.1)5&!*(3аY(?), &а7 ( -B@G!7&(,0/! *!H!0(? ( >!8-&,(? B"а-&0(7$, 1*$Y!--а (&*а0-0аY($0а2)0/+ 7$.1а0(8, .!J>B0а*$>0/+ C7$0$.("!-7(+ ( D(0а0-$,/+ $*#а0(3аY(8), ,/*а- @а&/,а5A(+ !>(0/! 1*а,(2а 1$,!>!0(?. У"(&/,а? C&( Dа7&$*/, 0!$@+$>(.$ *а3*а@$&а&) 1$3(Y(5 Р$--(( 1$ #2$@а2(3аY((. В !! $-0$,! >$2J0/ @/&) -2!>B5A(! 1*(0Y(1/: #2B@$7а? а0а2(&("!-7а? ( 1*$#0$-&("!-7а? $Y!07а 1*$Y!--а; а7&(,0$! B"а-&(! , .!J>B0а*$>0/+ $*#а0(3аY(?+, 7$&$*/! -&$?& ,$ #2а,! #2$@а2(3аY((; (0(Y(а&(,/ Р$--(( , -$3>а0(( 1$> !d C#(>$8 &*а0-0аY($0а2)0/+ 7$.1а0(8, 1$,/H!0(! *$2( Р$--(( , .!J>B0а*$>0/+ $*#а0(3аY(?+, $-$@!00$ , D(0а0-$,$-C7$0$.("!-7$. @2$7!; $1!*!Jа5A(! >!8-&,(? 1$ -$3>а0(5 0$,/+ &!+0$2$#(8; @!3$1а-0$-&). П$-2!>0(8 1*(0Y(1 $30а"а!&, "&$ B7*!12!0(! .!J>B0а*$>0$8 @!3$1а-0$-&( 0! >$2J0$ 1*$(-+$>(&) 3а -"!& -0(J!0(? B*$,0? 0аY($0а2)0$8 @!3$1а-0$-&(, -$7*аA!0(? C7$0$.("!-7$#$ ( $@$*$00$#$ 1$&!0Y(а2а Р$--((, 7а7 C&$ @/2$ , 1990-+ #$>а+. У7*!12!0(! 0аY($0а2)0$8 @!3$1а-0$-&(, 0а1*$&(,, 0! >$2J0$ -$3>а- ,а&) 1*$@2!. >2? @!3$1а-0$-&( >*B#(+ #$-B>а*-&, ( .!J>B0а*$>0$8 @!3$1а-0$-&( , Y!2$..

В $Y!07! #2$@а2(3аY(( 0!$@+$>(.$ ,/>!2(&) ,0!H055 #!$1$2(&("!-7B5 ( ,0B&*!0055 -$Y(- а2)0$-C7$0$.("!-7B5 -&$*$0/. О"!,(>0$, "&$ - 1$3(Y(( #!$1$2(&(7( #2$@а2(3аY(? 1*!>-&а,2?- !& 0$,B5 D$*.B *!а2(3аY(( -&*а&!#(( США 1$ 1$>>!*Jа0(5 ( B-(2!0(5 ,2(?0(? , .(*!. США 1$>#$&$,2!0/ 7 C&$8 *$2(, 0а (+ >$25 1*(+$>(&-? $7$2$ &*!&( (00$,аY($00$#$ 1$&!0Y(а2а .(*а (0аB7$d.7$#$ -!7&$*а), &$#>а 7а7 >$2? Р$--(( – .!0!! 1*$Y!0&а. Е-2( ,!*0B&)-? 7 -$1$-&а,2!0(5 $Y!07( 0аY($0а2)0$8 -(2/ #$-B>а*-&, 1$ #!$1$2(&("!-7(. 7*(&!*(?., &$ $"!,(>0$, "&$ США 1$"- &( 1$ ,-!. 7$.1$0!0&а. @/2( , 1980-! #$>/ -(2)0!! СССР ( &!. @$2!! -(2)0!!, "!. $-2а@2!00а? , 1990-! #$>/ Р$--(?. Е-2( J! а0а2(3 ,!-&( 1$ -&!*J0!,/. 0а1*а,2!0(?. #2$@а2(3аY(( – (00$- ,аY($00а?, (0D$*.аY($00а?, D(0а0-$,$-@а07$,-7а? -(-&!./, &$ 3>!-) 1*!(.BA!-&,$ США !A! $AB&(.!!. П$C&$.B, ,/*а@а&/,а? #!$1$2(&("!-7B5 1$3(Y(5 1$ ,$1*$-B #2$@а2(3аY((, $1*!>!2?? -,$8 1B&) 7а7 7*B10$8 !,*$а3(а&-7$8 >!*Jа,/, Р$--(? >$2J0а (-+$>(&) (3 0!$@+$>(.$-&( а7&(,- 0$#$ -$&*B>0("!-&,а - C&$8 -&*а0$8. О>0а7$, .$>!2) &а7$#$ -$&*B>0("!-&,а 0! >$2J0а 1*(,$>(&) 7 >а2)0!8H!.B $-2а@2!0(5 Р$--((, 7а7 C&$ 1*$(3$H2$ , .(0B,H(! >!-?&(2!&(?. О-BA!-&,2?? *!- D$*./ 1$ *!Y!1&а. а.!*(7а0-7(+ -$,!&0(7$,, *а>(7а2-2(@!*а2/ 0! -.$#2( -$3>а&) CDD!7&(,0B5 */0$"0B5 C7$0$.(7B, а, 0а1*$&(,, *а-&*а&(2( 30а"(&!2)0B5 "а-&) 0аY($0а2)0/+ @$#а&-&,.

И#0$*(*$,а0(! ,$ ,0!H0!8 1$2(&(7! США 7B2)&B*0$-(-&$*("!-7(+ &*а>(Y(8 Р$--(( 1*(,!- 2$ 7 &$.B, "&$ , 1*!>-&а,2!0(( @$2)H(0-&,а *$--(?0 С$!>(0d00/! Ш&а&/ -&а2( ,$-1*(0(.а&)-? 7а7 $>(0 (3 #2а,0/+ ,(0$,0(7$, ,$30(70$,!0(? , 1990-! #$>/ , Р$--(( #(@*(>а "!*0$#$ */07а,

207

О,1-5A 0-,,*.,(-. :-,$#а0,)5!11-,)*

@!3B>!*J0$8 -1!7B2?Y((, $&7*$,!00$8 1*!-&B10$-&( ( #$-7а1(&а2(3.а. Н!$@+$>(.$ B"(&/,а&) $1/& !,*$1!8-7(+ >!*Jа,, 7$&$*/! >а,0$ 1$0?2(, "&$ 7аJ>а? (3 0(+ , $>(0$"7B 0! -.$J!& ,$8&( , .(*$,B5 C7$0$.(7B ( B-1!H0$ 7$07B*(*$,а&) - США ( &$2)7$ 1$2(&("!-7$! ( C7$0$.("!-7$! $@G!>(0!0(! 0аY($0а2)0/+ #$-B>а*-&, -1$-$@0$ B7*!1(&) (+ #!$1$2(&("!-7$! 1$2$J!0(! , .(*!. С$3>а0(! !>(0$8 !,*$1!8-7$8 ,а25&/ *!37$ 1$,/-(2$ #!$1$2(&("!-7(! Hа0-/ !,*$1!8-7(+ #$- -B>а*-&, , 7$07B*!0&0$8 @$*)@!. Д2? Р$--(( C&$& $1/& 1*(.!"а&!2!0 &!., "&$ -а.$>$-&а&$"0$-&) @а3$,/+ $-0$, !! C7$0$.(7( ,!-).а $&0$-(&!2)0а ( @!3 а7&(,0$#$ (-1$2)3$,а0(? BJ! -$3>а00/+ ( ,$3.$J0/+ 0$,/+ (0&!#*аY($00/+ $@G!>(0!0(8 Р$--(? , $>(0$"7B 0! -.$J!& 1*$&(,$-&$?&) 0!#а&(,0/. -&$*$0а. #2$@а2(3аY(( ( (-1$2)3$,а&) 1*!(.BA!-&,а 0$,$8 7$0D(#B*аY(( C7$0$.(- "!-7(+, 0аB"0$-&!+0("!-7(+, (0D$*.аY($00/+ ( D(0а0-$,/+ .!J>B0а*$>0/+ $&0$H!0(8.

Д2? 1$,/H!0(? -,$!#$ #!$1$2(&("!-7$#$ -&а&B-а , 1*$Y!--! #2$@а2(3аY((, 0!-.$&*? 0а 0(37(! $Y!07( !! .!J>B0а*$>0$#$ ,2(?0(?, -2а@$-&) (00$,аY($00$#$ 1$&!0Y(а2а, 0(37B5 7$07B*!0&$-1$- -$@0$-&), Р$--(? (.!!& *?> -(2)0/+ -&$*$0. Ра-1$2а#а? $#*$.0/. 1*(*$>0$-*!-B*-0/. 1$&!0Y(- а2$., Р$--(? .$#2а @/ @$2!! а7&(,0$ ( Y!2!0а1*а,2!00$ !#$ (-1$2)3$,а&). Н!$@+$>(.$ 1*(,2!7а&)

.!J>B0а*$>0/8 7а1(&а2 0! &$2)7$ >2? >$@/"( ( C7-1$*&а -/*)?, 0$ ( >2? *а3,(&(? 1!*!*а@а&/,а- 5A!8 1*$./H2!00$-&(, B7*!12!0(? $&*а-2!8 ,/-$7$&!+0$2$#("0$#$ -!7&$*а C7$0$.(7(.

Д*B#(. «$70$.» ,+$J>!0(? Р$--(( , #2$@а2)0$! */0$"0$! 1*$-&*а0-&,$ >$2J0$ .$J!& @/&) $1!*!Jа5A!! *а3,(&(! &*а0-1$*&а. И-1$2)3B? B0(7а2)0$! #!$#*аD("!-7$! 1$2$J!0(!, Р$--(? .$#- 2а @/ -&а&) -,$!$@*а30/. .$-&$. .!J>B За1а>$. ( В$-&$7$.. Д2? ,0!H0(+ (0,!-&$*$, .$J!& @/&) C7$0$.("!-7( 1*(,2!7а&!2)0/. ,2$J!0(! -*!>-&, , *!7$0-&*B7Y(5 Т*а0--(@(*-7$8 J!2!3- 0$>$*$J0$8 .а#(-&*а2( ( -$3>а0(! 0а 1B&( 1!*!-!"!0(? Р$--(( 0$,$#$ .$A0$#$ &$,а*0$#$ 1$&$- 7а 1$ &*а0-7$0&(0!0&а2)0$.B J!2!30$>$*$J0$.B 1B&(. Э&а .а#(-&*а2) .$#2а @/ -1$-$@-&,$,а&) B-7$*!0(5 *а3,(&(? 1*$./H2!00$-&(, B,!2("!0(5 3а0?&$-&(. Т!., 7&$ -$.0!,а!&-? , ,$3.$J0$- -&?+ 1*(,2!"!0(? (0$-&*а00/+ (0,!-&(Y(8 (2( $1а-а!&-? "*!3.!*0$#$ ,2(?0(? (0$-&*а00$#$ 7а- 1(&а2а, .$J0$ 0а1$.0(&), "&$ , 7$0Y! XIX ,. -&*$(&!2)-&,$ Т*а0--(@а $-BA!-&,2?2$-) 3а -"!& D*а0YB3-7$#$ 7а1(&а2а – ( C&$ @/2$ ,/#$>0$ 7а7 Р$--((, &а7 ( (0$-&*а00/. (0,!-&$*а..

ОY!07а #2$@а2(3аY(( - 1$3(Y(( #!$-&*а&!#(( @B>!& 0!1$20$8 @!3 а0а2(3а ,2(?0(? C&$#$ 1*$- Y!--а 0а -$-&$?0(! C7$0$.(7( -&*а0/ ( !! @!3$1а-0$-&(. П$-7$2)7B #2$@а2)0а? -(-&!.а *а-1$2а- #а!& @$2)H(. 1$&!0Y(а2$., "!. 7аJ>а? (3 !! "а-&!8 (C7$0$.(7( $&>!2)0/+ #$-B>а*-&,) ( */"а#( 1$2(&("!-7$8 C7$0$.("!-7$8 ,2а-&( 1*($@*!&а5& 0а>0аY($0а2)0/8 +а*а7&!*, &$ 0аY($0а2)0/.

#$-B>а*-&,а. $"!0) 0!1*$-&$ $&-&а(,а&) 1!*!> .!J>B0а*$>0/.( 0а>0аY($0а2)0/.( $*#а0(3аY(?-

.( -,$8 ,3#2?> 0а *!H!0(! &!+ (2( (0/+ $@A(+ 1*$@2!. #2$@а2)0$#$ -$$@A!-&,а.

На1*(.!*, .(*$,/! D(0а0-$,/! 7*(3(-/ 1997–98 ##. ( 2008-09 ##. 1$7а3а2(, "&$ 1$7а 0! -$3>а- 0$ 0а>!J0$#$ .!+а0(3.а .!J>B0а*$>0$8 C7$0$.("!-7$8 @!3$1а-0$-&(. В -2B"а! 7*(3(-а *(-7( *а3*BH!0(? #2$@а2)0$#$ C7$0$.("!-7$#$ 1*$-&*а0-&,а $"!0) ,!2(7(: 7аJ>/8 -1а-а!&-? 7а7 B.!!& ( , $>(0$"7B, -(2)0/! @*$-а5& -2а@/+. Е-2( >$ 7*(3(-а D(0а0-$,/8 7а1(&а2 (3 D(0а0-$,/+ Y!0- &*$, 1!*!&!7а2 0а 1!*(D!*(5, &$ , B-2$,(?+ 7*(3(-а $0 B-&*!.(2-? , @$2!! 0а>!J0/! D(0а0-$,/! Y!0&*/, 0!-.$&*? 0а .!0)HB5 &!7BAB5 >$+$>0$-&) (0,!-&(Y(8. П*(.!*0$ &а7$! J! 1$2$J!0(! 0а@25>а2$-) , 1998 #. , Р$--((: 7а1(&а2 -1!H0$ 1$7(>а2 1*$-&$*/ 0аH!8 -&*а0/ ( 0(7а7 0! +$&!2 -"(&а&)-? - (0&!*!-а.( 0аY($0а2)0$8 C7$0$.(7(, 1$>>!*J(,а&) B-&$8"(,$-&) *$--(8-7$#$ D$0>$- ,$#$ */07а ( $@A(! B-2$,(? -&а@(2)0$-&( .(*$,$#$ D(0а0-$,$#$ */07а.

П$C&$.B &а7(! 1*!(.BA!-&,а #2$@а2(3аY((, 7а7 (-1$2)3$,а0(! -$,*!.!00/+ &!+0$2$#(8 0$,$-

#$ 1$7$2!0(?, ,$3.$J0$-&( B,!2("!0(? D(0а0-$,$#$ 1$&!0Y(а2а >2? (0,!-&(Y(8 ( 1$&*!@2!0(?, -BA!-&,B5& 7а7 1$&!0Y(а2)0/! 1*!(.BA!-&,а >2? ,-!+ #$-B>а*-&,, ,725"!00/+ , 1*$Y!-- #2$@а- 2(3аY((, а ,/(#*/H $& 0(+ 1$2B"а5& &$2)7$ &! #$-B>а*-&,а, 7$&$*/! 0а1*а,2?5& C&$& 1*$Y!--, (.!?

208

V 0а9#!2. ВA9-5A 6$#$X!:- * 0а95*)*! ,)0а1A

(0&!22!7&Bа2)0/!, (0D$*.аY($00/! ( D(0а0-$,/! 1*!(.BA!-&,а. Э&$ 1*$?,2?!&-?, , "а-&0$-&(, , B,!2("!0(( *а3*/,а .!J>B >$+$>а.( 1?&( @$#а&!8H(+ ( 1?&( @!>0!8H(+ -&*а0, 7$&$*$! 0а@25- >а!&-? , &!"!0(! 1$-2!>0(+ >!-?&(2!&(8. П$-,(>(.$.B, >2? Р$--(( 1*!(.BA!-&,а #2$@а2(3аY(( $&0$-(&!2)0$ 0!,!2(7(: C&$ -$,*!.!00а? -!&) &$*#$,/+ 1*!>1*(?&(8, (-1$2)3$,а0(! (0D$*.аY(- $00/+ &!+0$2$#(8, 0$,/+ -*!>-&, -,?3(, $&>!2)0/+ 72а-&!*$, , .аH(0$-&*$!0((. УA!*@ J! $& 0!!

#$*а3>$ @$2)H!: @!#-&,$ 7а1(&а2а, B,!2("!0(! #$-B>а*-&,!00$#$ >$2#а ( 1*!,*аA!0(! 30а"(&!2)0$8 "а-&( #$-B>а*-&,!00$#$ @5>J!&а , D$0> ,/12а&/ ,0!H0(+ >$2#$,; B,!2("!0(! *(-7$,, *!37(! -7а"- 7( ,а25&0$#$ 7B*-а ( $1а-0$-&) >!-&а@(2(3аY(( ,а25&0$-D(0а0-$,$8 -(-&!./ -&*а0/. П*$Y!-- #2$@а2(3аY((, $&7*/,а? C7$0$.(7B >2? -,$@$>0$#$ 1!*!&$7а ,-!+ ,(>$, *!-B*-$,, 2$.а? 2$7а2)0/! -(-&!./ 3аA(&/ 0аY($0а2)0/+ (0&!*!-$,, $@?3а&!2)0$ >$2J!0 @/&) >$1$20!0 -$3>а0(!. 0$,/+ (0- -&(&B&$, .!J>B0а*$>0$8 #2$@а2)0$8 C7$0$.("!-7$8 @!3$1а-0$-&(. Е-2( $0( -,$!,*!.!00$ 0! @B>B& -$3>а0/, &$ *!37$ B-(2(&-? ,!*$?&0$-&) >!-&а@(2(3аY(( 7а7 0аY($0а2)0/+ C7$0$.(7, &а7 ( .(*$,$8 C7$0$.(7( , Y!2$.. В B-2$,(?+ 0!B-&$8"(,$#$ *а3,(&(? C7$0$.(7 -&*а0 .(*а, B-(2(,а5A!#$-? ,3а- (.$>!8-&,(? , 1!*($> #2$@а2(3аY(( >$2J0/ @/&) -BA!-&,!00$ -7$**!7&(*$,а0/ DB07Y(( ( 3а>а"( С$,!&а Б!3$1а-0$-&( ООН ( >*B#(+ а,&$*(&!&0/+ .!J>B0а*$>0/+ $*#а0(3аY(8.

СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ УГРОЗЫ И ВЫЗОВЫ: АНАЛИЗ ОСНОВНЫХ ТЕНДЕНЦИЙ

Ра3*а@$&7а 1*$#*а../ 1!*,$$"!*!>0/+ ( >$2#$,*!.!00/+ .!* 1$ $@!-1!"!0(5 C7$0$.("!-7$8 @!3$1а-0$-&( Р$--(( ( 1*а7&("!-7(! Hа#( , C&$. 0а1*а,2!0(( >$2J0/ $1(*а&)-? 0а "!&7$! $-$30а- 0(! -$,*!.!00/+ B#*$3. О0( ,!-).а .0$#$$@*а30/ ( (.!5& *а30B5 -&!1!0) $-&*$&/. Ра--.$&*(. 0а(@$2!! -!*)!30/!, 0а 0аH ,3#2?>, B#*$3/. В *!3B2)&а&! #2B@$7$#$ -(-&!.0$#$ 7*(3(-а, 1$*а3(,- H!#$ Р$--(5 , 1990-! #$>/, 1*$(3$H2$ *!37$! -$7*аA!0(! 1*$(3,$>-&,а, .а--$,$! $@!>0!0(! 0а-!- 2!0(?, 1$&!*? ,0B&*!00!#$ ( .(*$,$#$ */07а. Д!D$2& 1998 #$>а -&а2 ?*7(. -,(>!&!2)-&,$. $H(@$7 ( 1*$-"!&$, , -$Y(а2)0$-C7$0$.("!-7$8 1$2(&(7!.

На"а,H(8-? - 1999 #$>а *$-& *$--(8-7$8 C7$0$.(7( 1*(,!2 7 !! ,/+$>B 0а -&а>(5 *$-&а, 7$&$- */8 1*$>$2Jа!&-? >$ 0а-&$?A!#$ ,*!.!0(. П*$,а2 C7$0$.(7( , 1990-! #$>/ 1*(,!2 7 -1а>B (0,!- -&(Y($00$8 а7&(,0$-&(, .0$#$7*а&0$.B -$7*аA!0(5 (0,!-&(Y(8 , $-0$,0$8 7а1(&а2, -$7*аA!0(5 1*$(3,$>-&,а. А 7а7 &$2)7$ -&*а0а ,$H2а , */0$"0B5 C7$0$.(7B, -$7*аA!0(! 1*$(3,$>-&,а -&а2$ $30а"а&) 1$&!*5 */07а – ,0B&*!00!#$ (2( .!J>B0а*$>0$#$. В!>) !-2( */0$7 $7а3/,а!&-? 3а0?& >*B#(.( 1*$(3,$>(&!2?.(, &$, >аJ! 1$2B"(, 7*!>(&/, 0а*а-&(, .$A0$-&(, 1*$,!>? &!+0("!-7$! 1!*!,$$*BJ!0(!, *$--(8-7$8 1*$>B7Y(( @B>!& $"!0) &*B>0$ 1*$@(&)-? 0а 0!#$. А !-2( 1*$>B7Y(? 0! 0а8>!& -1*$-а, &$ ( 1*$(3,$>-&,$ *а-&( 0! -.$J!&. Т!. -а./. (-"!30!& ,$3.$J0$-&) ,$3*$J>!- 0(? ( 1$>G!.а *$--(8-7$8 C7$0$.(7(, а -&*а0а 2(H(&-? Hа0-а ,!*0B&)-? , "(-2$ ,/-$7$*а3,(&/+ >!*Jа,. П$C&$.B -1а> 1*$(3,$>-&,а >$2J!0 *а--.а&*(,а&)-? ,.!-&! - 1$&!*!8 */07а, а .!*/ 1$ 1$>G!.B 1*$(3,$>-&,а – -$1*$,$J>а&)-? "!&7$8 1*$#*а..$8 -$3>а0(? */07а >2? -@/&а 1*$>B7Y((.

У+$>?Aа? 7$*0?.( , >$*!D$*.!00B5 .$>!2) -$Y(а2)0$-C7$0$.("!-7$#$ B-&*$8-&,а $@A!-&,а $&-&а2$-&), а*+а("0$-&) -!2)-7$#$ +$3?8-&,а ( , Y!2$. 1*$>$,$2)-&,!00$#$ 7$.12!7-а *!37$ B-B- #B@(2(-) , *!3B2)&а&! (3@*а00$#$ ,а*(а0&а 1*$,!>!0(? а#*а*0$8 *!D$*./. П$-1!H0$-&) , *а3*B- H!0(( -2$J(,H(+-? -&*B7&B* ( +$3?8-&,!00/+ -,?3!8, $@$-&*!0(! Y!0$,/+ >(-1*$1$*Y(8 .!J- >B 1*$./H2!00$-&)5 ( -!2)-7(. +$3?8-&,$., $&7а3 $& *а3B.0$#$ 1а&!*0а2(3.а 1$ $&0$H!0(5 7 $&!"!-&,!00/. 1*$(3,$>(&!2?. ( 1*а7&("!-7( 1$20$! $&7*/&(! ,0B&*!00!#$ */07а >2? (.1$*&а 1*$>B7&$, 1(&а0(? – ,-d C&$ 1$>*/,а!& @а3B >2? -а.$$@!-1!"!0(? -&*а0/ 1*$>$,$2)-&,(!..

П$-&а0$,7а ,$1*$-а $ -а.$$@!-1!"!00$-&( -&*а0/ 1*$>$,$2)-&,(!. $&05>) 0! $30а"а!& 1*$- ,!>!0(! 7B*-а 0а а,&а*7(5 ( (3$2?Y(5 $& .(*$,$#$ */07а. М(*$,а? 1*а7&(7а ,/*а@$&а2а *?> ,аJ-

209