4. Why has revolt happened? Political causes of Libyan events

We can emphasize the next causes of Libyan revolt:

1) Col. Qaddafi has lost political initiative in interim and foreign politics;

2) The groups of political elite have begun escalation of struggle around the aging dictator and in February 2011 there was a cumulative effect;

3) The risks of conservation of status quo for the elite groups outside the Qaddafi’s family exceeded the risks of uncontrolled changes;

4) There have been accumulated many unsolved system political issues and contradictions in Jamahiriya;

5) In the absence of reformist agenda and in the presence of high-personification power the war against the Qaddafi’s regime itself became such agenda;

6) The revolts in neighbor Arab states and pressure from government authorities became a trigger of people rebellion.

5. Who has revolted? Main actors

We can call main actors of Libyan revolt:

1) National Transitional Council (established in 5 March 2011). Some of its leaders served in the Qaddafi’s government, for example Mahmoud Jibril or Ali Al-Issawi, they also present interests of leading tribes.

2) Revolutionary commanders which were either military officers in Libyan armed forces or combatants at large of Middle East. One of the lasts is Abdul Hakeem Belhaj who was a member of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group. Other commanders have been trained in 1990s in the camps of Afghanistan and Peshavar.

3) Oppositional tribes which have the centers in certain towns (Benghazi, Misurata, Ajdabia etc.) and resistant to Qaddafi’s militias.

4) The groups of radical Islamists. Some of them are parts of fighting tribes but some of them are independent.

It’s important that there are some unknown actors with uncertain military and political capabilities.

6. Influence of Libyan events in the Northern and Central Africa and Mediterranean region

Influence of Libyan events in the case of uncontrolled developing will include some directions in the regions around.

Northern direction: The stream of refugees goes to Italy and to Europe at all. It creates a humanitarian threat to the EU.

Western direction: Big number of illegal conventional arms is concentrated aboard of Algeria and creates the threat to stability in the state. The ideas of radical Islam penetrate both in Algeria and Tunisia from turbulent Libya.

Eastern direction: The illegal conventional arms can penetrate to Sudan and bring the risks of explosion in recently separated countries. Also the Libyan turbulence can influence on the revolutionary Egypt where the army tries to provide a peaceful transition from Mubarak regime.

Southern direction: The Libyan revolt can intensify the political processes in Sahel and Sahara and influent unpredictably to the cross-boarding military activity of Tuareg tribes from Mali to Chad in their fight for Azaouad establishing. As for Chad separately the level of political stability of the state is low enough, so Libyan tribes and Libyan weapons can explode that political situation.

As a result the revolt in Libya brings political and security risks for the neighbor regions and these risks need to be localized by the UN or concerned states.