highlights the weakest scenario, where states face high levels of risk but inadequate resources to cope. This is the reality facing many small and isolated states, and those with less developed economies. In such circumstances, these Customs administrations need to cooperate and coordinate closely – with neighbouring states, the private sector and other key stakeholders - in order to protect the country from threats.

Figure 5 Balancing resources against risk

High	High risk, high control needed:	X = Y
	e.g. drug routes	Ideal
		scenario

Powers and resources available for coercion/ control

			Weakest
			scenario
Low	Low risk goods and people
	Low	Level of Risk	High

The next diagram in Figure 6, illustrates how management of border risks can also be optimally achieved through achieving high levels of voluntary compliance and stakeholder consent. Governing, at all levels, is most efficiently and sustainably achieved when there are high levels of consent. When there is little support for a system, compliance drops and the need for widespread force and coercion rises. High levels of voluntary compliance enable the most efficient use of resources, and Customs to focus resources on high risk flow.

The ideal scenario is the top line, where Customs has been able to establish systems and procedures to ensure a consistently high level of compliance even though the risks steadily increase. We note that compliance will never be total, and must be backed up with the ability to use force.

The second line, running horizontally down is described as ‘the not quite there yet’ scenario. This is a more likely current scenario for many Customs administrations. Compliance is high where there are low risks such as legal traders with secure supply chains, but compliance drops as risks increase, especially if illegal substances or activities are involved. This might indicate the perception of a Customs administration as weak and unable to enforce compliance. The worst scenario is the line at the bottom, which illustrates consistently low levels of compliance, no matter what the risk to the border is.

Any Customs administration should be able to work out where on this simple conceptualisation they wish to be, and to prepare accordingly for the necessary resources and training to achieve that objective.

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