2015ARKH-P5-Field Development Evaluation(80s)
.pdfLNG PLANT PROJECT LAY OUT
Plant lay out : surface
Pars LNG = 265 ha SPP11 = 125 ha
South Pars Phase 11 and Pars LNG meeting Tehran 21 Sept 2004
Land occupation = 315 ha
Reclaimed area |
= 75 ha |
Embankments |
= 40 ha (incl) |
1 |
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OTHER TYPICAL PRE-PROJECT TECHNICAL (or not) STUDIES
Electrical
Control & ESD System
Telecommunication
Civil engineering
Structures
Pipelines and vessels
Mechanical
Corrosion
Surveys (surface & seafloor, bathymetry, geotechnical, …) requirements
Metering & Export systems
EBS (Environmental Baseline Study)
Preliminary EIS (Environmental Impact Assessment)
Sustainable development aspects, economical & social impact
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CAPEX STRUCTURE
Main Equipment Bulk
Construction (onshore + offshore)
Transportation
Temporary Facilities
Construction camps
Engineering Services
Management & Supervision
Surveys
Insurance
Commissioning
Direct Costs + Indirect Costs = Technical Costs
Direct Costs
+
Indirect Costs
+
General
Expenses
+
Associated Expenses
+
Contingencies
=
Facilities Cost Estimate
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COST ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY
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PROJECT DEVELOPMENT
HOW TO PERFORM A COST ESTIMATE
THREE MAIN METHODS FOR COST ESTIMATING
First “the Rule of Thumb”: US$/bbl US$/MMcfd, or by analogy with an other project (ratio between capacity with exponent 0.6)
i.e. a project to produce 150 MMcfd (equivalent to 25 000 bbl/d) could cost 400MM US$, what about a 250 MMcfd project with similar conditions:
400 x 250/150 exp 0.6 = 543 MM US$
But of course we have to adjust by other factors: escalation, country…
Second method - “Semi-Analytic estimate” . Factorisation method is often used.
Finally the “Detailed Cost Estimate”,
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EXAMPLE OF FACTORISATION METHOD
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ACCURACY & CONTINGENCIES
Study type |
Préliminary |
Conceptual |
Pre-project |
Accuracy |
+35 to 40% |
|
+ 25 to 30 % |
|
+15 to 20 % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Contingencies |
25 to 30 % |
15 to 20 % |
10 to 15 % |
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PROJECT PLANNING
Example of level 1 project development planning
Level 1 - Schedule
|
2002 |
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2003 |
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2004 |
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2005 |
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2006 |
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Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
GENERAL
-Appraisal
-FEED Completion
-Contract Area & FDP
-3D Seismic Acquisition / Processing
OFFSHORE
-Tendering Cycle
-Wellhead Jackets
-Drilling
-Platforms
-Sea Lines
-Export Line & Receiving Facilities
ONSHORE
-Tendering Cycle
-Construction to 1st Gas
-Start-up – Stream 1
-Start-up – Stream 2
- DPSA - Commencement Date
01.10.06
–
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PROJECT PREPARATION
&
DECISION TO DEVELOP
KEY ISSUES: PROJECT ECONOMICS EVALUATION
OBJECTIVES :
To have the monetary value of a project & to analyse the project value drivers
To compare technical alternatives
To evaluate tenders and to prepare negotiation positions
To forecast cashflows and to prepare budgets
To track on going project performances versus budget and forecast
Risks analysis, impact on project value & sensitivities
Reservoir uncertainties Reserves ?
|
New technology |
Costs ? Added value ? |
|
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‘’ |
‘’ |
Risks ? Production delay ? |
|
Low oil prices |
Project value |
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