vk.com/id446425943

5	Appendix C: 3Q17-3Q18 earnings highlights
December
							1H17		9mo17		2H17					1H18			1H17		9mo17		2H17				1H18			1H17		9mo17			2H17					1H18			1H17				2H17				1H18
		BBG ticker		CCY					Sales, mn CCY												EBITDA, mn CCY												NI, mn CCY												EBITDA margin
							2Q17		3Q17		4Q17			1Q18		2Q18			2Q17		3Q17		4Q17		1Q18		2Q18			2Q17		3Q17			4Q17			1Q18		2Q18			2Q17		3Q17		4Q17		1Q18		2Q18
2018
		Energy
		GAZP RX		USD		24,257		32,608		37,594				29,664	29,452			6,042			5,814	11,003		9,255		10,121			3,397		2,268		6,533					4,194	5,897			25%		18%		29%		31%		34%
		NVTK LI		USD		2,210		2,894		3,154				3,169	3,347			762			949	994		1,104		1,076			638		760		758					518	700			34%		33%		32%		35%		32%
		ROSN RX		USD		25,294		29,260		30,274				33,414	34,884			5,444			5,907	6,188		8,576		8,927			795		1,712		1,424					3,689	2,167			22%		20%		20%		26%		26%
		LKOH RX		USD		25,135		28,463		28,669				33,270	35,187			3,747			3,831	3,859		4,776		4,911			1,649		2,063		1,917					2,707	2,804			15%		13%		13%		14%		14%
		SNGS RX		USD				10,796						12,437							3,169			3,902							1,819							6,642						29%				31%
		SIBN RX		USD			8,678		9,349		9,515			9,986		10,522			2,103		2,048		2,157		2,711		3,000			1,314		1,100			1,225			1,567		2,017			24%		22%		23%		27%		29%
		TATN RX		USD		2,875		3,755		3,696				3,786	3,862			725			972	1,057		1,334		1,435			458		588		739					1,022	1,052			25%		26%		29%		35%		37%
		TRNFP RX		RUB		219,552		233,964 225,239 238,067 252,706										101,939			101,330	107,314		101,009		106,577			53,020		56,507		47,029					45,116	55,639			46%		43%		48%		42%		42%
		TMKS LI		USD		1,140		1,203		1,274				1,355	1,207			161			137	151		189		164			24		-14		9					20	-7			14%		11%		12%		14%		14%
		Materials
		CHMF RX		USD		1,972		2,178		2,173				2,259	2,063			616			756	706		872		766			320		439		449					557	496			31%		35%		32%		39%		37%
		NLMK LI		USD			2,551		2,814		2,794			3,112		3,127			648		786		812		915		1,015			382		430			512			608		717			25%		28%		29%		29%		32%
		MAGN RX		USD		2,012		1,948		2,055				2,106	2,091			533			592	560		648		671			276		370		279					393	400			26%		30%		27%		31%		32%
		EVR LN		USD				5,721						6,343							1,472			1,906							757							1,027						26%				30%
		GMKN RX		USD				4,898						5,834							2,251			3,079							1,220							2,112						46%				53%
		ALRS RX		RUB		58,900		60,900		95,969				72,242	70,076			27,200			26,900	48,014		41,336		40,718			12,800		17,800		32,165					25,378	24,229			46%		44%		50%		57%		58%
		PLZL RX		USD		744		743		617				692	832			470			463	383		456		534			298		288		223					114	355			63%		62%		62%		66%		64%
		POLY LN		USD				1,132						789							488			305							259							155						43%				39%
		HGM LN		USD				170						147							82			71							40							29						48%				48%
		Fertilizers
		PHOR LI		USD		788		784		55,000				56,626	62,778			231			218	14,300		18,674		23,385			125		73		6,300					2,955	12,879			29%		28%		26%		33%		37%
		AKRN RX		RUB		379		25,053		24,050				25,363	28,366			118			8,197	7,958		7,708		9,820			136		4,125		3,933					-747	3,817			31%		33%		33%		30%		35%
		Industrials
		AFLT RX		RUB		169,913		532,934		112,000				153,880	200,523			37,903			56,015	-7,700		14,354		40,567			24,259		22,872		-11,198					6,187	27,718			22%		11%		-7%		9%		20%
		NCSP LI		USD		213		238			n/a			n/a		n/a		159			171		n/a		n/a		n/a		113		80				n/a			n/a		n/a		75%		72%
		GLTR LI		RUB					26,697					30,108							13,716				16,516							6,441						8,812							51%				55%
		GLPR LI		USD				168						175							104			109							-41							35						62%				62%
		SVAV RX		RUB				19,752						n/a							1,273				n/a						415							n/a						6%
		Consumer
		FIVE LI		RUB		319,424		361,705		351,518				382,559	375,505			22,392			23,800	21,272		28,866		27,689			7,277		7,793		5,628					8,685	8,087			7%		7%		6%		8%		7%
		LNTA LI		RUB				201,647						n/a							19,871				n/a						8,772							n/a						10%
		OKEY LI		RUB				91,485						78,179							5,685			3,470							4,645							-541						6%				4%
		DSKY RX		RUB		24,554		30,354		24,020				48,116	28,449			3,045			4,291	1,441		4,128		3,486			1,607		2,531				n/a			1,031	2,126			12%		14%		6%		9%		12%
		AGRO LI		RUB		17,071		24,230		15,268				17,547	19,378			3,099			5,419	1,715		4,057		4,413			1,703		6,346		40					2,177	2,657			18%		22%		11%		23%		23%
		MDMG LI		RUB				7,137						7,130							2,277			1,921							1,479							1,230						32%				27%
	Source: Company data,					Bloomberg, VTB Capital Research

20

Equities

Russia

Watch Earnings

vk.com/id446425943

5	Appendix C: 3Q17-3Q18 earnings highlights (continued)
December
							1H17		9mo17		2H17					1H18			1H17		9mo17		2H17					1H18			1H17		9mo17			2H17					1H18			1H17				2H17				1H18
		BBG ticker		CCY					Operating income, mn CCY																									NI, mn CCY												EBITDA margin
							2Q17		3Q17		4Q17			1Q18		2Q18			2Q17		3Q17		4Q17		1Q18			2Q18			2Q17		3Q17			4Q17			1Q18		2Q18			2Q17		3Q17		4Q17		1Q18		2Q18
2018
		Banks
		SBER RX		RUB		517,000		518,000		497,000				515,000	534,000															224,100 172,000 212,100 215,000 217,000
		TCS LI		RUB			15,700		17,900		19,200			19,700		21,800															5,000		6,400			5,700			6,000		7,300
		BSPB RX		RUB		8,446		8,212		7,375				8,702	8,463															2,387		1,747		1,834					2,511	2,038
											Sales
		Other financials
		MOEX RX		RUB		9,657		9,591		9,871				10,180	9,823			7,096			6,729	7,183		7,399				7,138		5,143		4,815		4,286					4,865	5,106			73%		70%		73%		73%		73%
		Media & IT
		YNDX US		RUB		23,438		27,860		26,573				29,672	32,570			5,695			9,293	7,704		8,842				10,725		2,371		5,249		4,009					5,080	6,100			24%		33%		29%		30%		33%
		MAIL LI		RUB			n/a	17,564		16,500				17,077	17,749				n/a		6,445	3,993		3,659				4,349			n/a	4,514		2,406					633	2,744					37%		24%		21%		25%
		QIWI US		RUB		3,238		4,116		4,099				4,510	5,230			1,325			965	1,450		1,392				1,633		1,064		642		1,081					872	1,170			41%		23%		35%		31%		31%
		LXFT US		USD		228		237		233				213	228			39			40	29		24				37		28		30		20					15	25			17%		17%		12%		11%		16%
		EPAM US		RUB		378		399		424				446	468			68			72	73		78				89		51		67		52					57	66			18%		18%		17%		17%		19%
		Telecoms
		MBT US		RUB		114,567		116,824		108,511				114,917	127,958			48,769			45,197	44,566		46,197				59,298		17,953		10,879		16,510					15,043	-37,020			43%		39%		41%		40%		46%
		MFON LI		RUB		84,720		84,641		76,459				81,945		tba		33,339			33,339	30,004		32,261				tba		8,121		8,121		5,587					6,154		tba		39%		39%		39%		39%
		VEON US		USD		2,456		2,320		2,250				2,270	2,317			960			814	854		857				848		125		-325		-109					-139	855			39%		35%		38%		38%		37%
		RTKM RX		RUB		75,600		84,100		76,200				77,400	79,400			24,600			25,700	23,200		23,700				27,300		3,900		4,200		3,900					3,100	5,700			33%		31%		30%		31%		34%
		Conglomerates
		SSA LI		RUB		180,590		198,593		170,701				180,914	204,634			55,626			47,292	49,193		55,231				73,572		5,173		-98,890		-417					-980	-27,765			31%		24%		29%		31%		36%
		Utilities									FY17												FY17													FY17												FY17
		IRAO RX		RUB		216,416		917,049		247,484				213,262	227,482			19,657			95,471	34,786		24,598				28,037		10,655		54,448		22,621					15,675	17,391			9%		10%		14%		12%		12%
		HYDR RX		RUB		67,738		380,864		110,097				92,219		tba		19,804			104,038	32,022		27,927				tba		8,501		22,451		22,951					13,737		tba		29%		27%		29%		30%
		FEES RX		RUB		58,461		242,186		60,659				56,797	56,939			33,420			129,004	32,190		29,109				30,048		18,630		75,551		20,962					18,907	18,086			57%		53%		53%		51%		53%
		RSTI RX		RUB		221,193		948,000		260,271				225,065	719,600			68,975			314,000	75,438		62,936				222,100		27,019		137,000		32,890					24,047	88,700			31%		33%		29%		28%		31%
		UPRO RX		RUB		18,289		76,522		20,339				17,257	17,228			6,842			47,475	7,675		5,994				5,507		4,562		33,609		5,079					3,540	2,568			37%		62%		38%		35%		32%
		MSNG RX		RUB			31,164		196,056		72,197			35,471		28,320			5,387		47,551		19,681		7,116			2,654			2,294		24,801			12,742			2,490		-1,187			17%		24%		27%		20%		9%
		OGKB RX		RUB		33,597		141,308		39,650				31,479	34,143			5,298			26,816	9,875		6,707				5,905		846		7,201		4,609					1,955	1,086			16%		19%		25%		21%		17%
		ENRU RX		RUB		19,055		74,400		18,542				15,469	18,583			4,170			17,732	4,600		3,105				3,884		1,847		8,544		2,319					1,072	1,708			22%		24%		25%		20%		21%
		TGKA RX		RUB		15,485		87,395		28,862				19,051	15,581			3,652			20,440	8,271		4,938				2,993		946		7,927		5,676					2,282	590			24%		23%		29%		26%		19%
		Real Estate
		LSRG LI		RUB					n/a					51,696							n/a			9,537									n/a						3,758							n/a			18%
		PIKK RX		RUB					133,655					90,347							12,731				10,340								6,222						315							10%				11%
		ETLN LI		RUB				46,494						24,699							10,911			1,519								6,679							1,037						23%				6%
	Source: Company data, Bloomberg, VTB Capital Research

21

Equities

Russia

Watch Earnings

vk.com/id446425943

5		Appendix D: 3Q18 consensus data for companies mentioned
December
		Company		Ticker		Results review/preview		Consensus date		Source
		Rosneft		ROSN RX		Rosneft – 3Q18 IFRS; strong tax reliefs, of 7 November, by Dmitry Loukashov et al		2 November		Interfax
2018		Gazprom		GAZPR RX		Gazprom – 3Q18 IFRS; strong and above consensus and our forecast, of 3 December, by Ekaterina Rodina et al		27 November		Interfax
		Novatek		NVTK LI		Novatek – 3Q18 IFRS; strong, as expected, of 25 October, by Dmitry Loukashov et al		23 October		Interfax
		Lukoil		LKOH RX		Lukoil – 3Q18 IFRS; strong, of 29 November, by Dmitry Loukashov et al		27 November		Interfax
		Gazprom Neft		SIBN RX		Gazprom Neft – 3Q18 IFRS; tax reliefs above estimates, of 16 November, by Dmitry Loukashov et al		15 November		Interfax
		Tatneft		TATN RX		n/a		29 November		Interfax
		TMK		TMKS LI		TMK – 3Q18 IFRS; loss on disposal of assets, of 16 November, by Ekaterina Rodina et al		15 November		Interfax
		Transneft		TRNFP RX		Transneft – 3Q18 IFRS; net income lifted by revaluation gain, of 30 November, by Dmitry Loukashov et al		n/a		n/a
		NLMK		NLMK LI		NLMK – 3Q18 earnings; strong outperformance on EBITDA, but FCFE in line, of 25 October, by Dmitry Glushakov et al		24 October		Interfax
		Severstal		CHMF RX		Severstal – 3Q18 earnings; earnings in line, dividend surprise, of 19 October, by Dmitry Glushakov et al		18 October		Interfax
		MMK		MAGN RX		MMK – 3Q18 earnings; positive surprise on costs, dividends, but capex raised, of 2 November, by Dmitry Glushakov et al		1 November		Interfax
		Alrosa		ALRS RX		Alrosa – 3Q18 earnings; slightly better results, lower volumes to be offset by prices, of 8 November, by Dmitry Glushakov et al		7 November		Interfax
		Polyus		PLZL RX		Polyus – 3Q18 earnings; better costs and capex, supportive for 2018F, of 7 November, by Dmitry Glushakov et al		6 November		Interfax
		Aeroflot		AFLT RX		Aeroflot – Flight above the expectations, of 3 December, by Elena Sakhnova et al		29 November		Interfax
		Phosagro		PHOR LI		PhosAgro – 3Q18 IFRS; trick and treat, of 23 November, by Elena Sakhnova et al		20 November		Interfax
		X5 Retail Group		FIVE RX		X5 Retail Group – 3Q18 IFRS results; robust, of 25 October, by Maria Kolbina et al		23 October		Interfax
		Magnit		MGNT LI		n/a		19 October		Interfax
		Detsky Mir		DSKY RX		Detsky Mir – 3Q18 IFRS; robust – continued improvement in profitability, of 29 October, by Maria Kolbina et al		n/a		n/a
		Rusagro		AGRO LI		Rusagro – 3Q18 IFRS; improvements across the board, of 12 November, by Nikolay Kovalev		9 November		Bloomberg
		Yandex		YNDX US		Yandex – 3Q18; well above consensus, of 29 October, by Vladimir Bespalov et al		26 October		Interfax
		Mail.ru Group		MAIL LI		Mail.ru Group – 3Q18; good growth, margins still on the agenda, of 25 October, by Vladimir Bespalov et al		24 October		Interfax
		Qiwi		QIWI US		Qiwi – 3Q18; well above consensus, dividends might be resumed in 2019, of 15 November, by Vladimir Bespalov et al		13 November		Interfax
		Luxoft		LXFT US		Luxoft – Upgrade to Buy; still facing challenges, but recent correction overdone, of 16 November, by Vladimir Bespalov et al		15 November		Bloomberg
		EPAM		EPAM US		EPAM – 3Q18; positive numbers – and updated profitability guidance, of 1 November, by Vladimir Bespalov et al		31 October		Bloomberg
		MTS		MBT US		n/a		19 November		Interfax
		VEON		VEON US		n/a		5 November		Company
		Rostelecom		RTKM RX		n/a		1 November		Company
		Sberbank		SBER RX		Sberbank – 3Q18 IFRS; solid numbers with surprising NIM resilience, of 1 November, by Mikhail Shlemov et al		26 October		Company
		TCS		TCS LI		TCS Group – 3Q18 IFRS; solid loan growth and 6% DY, of 26 November, by Mikhail Shlemov et al		20 November		Company
		Bank St. Petersburg		BSPB RX		Bank St Petersburg – 3Q18 IFRS; 11% ROE, solid loan growth, of 27 November, by Mikhail Shlemov et al		22 November		Company
		Moscow Exchange		MOEX RX		Moscow Exchange – 3Q18 IFRS; uninspiring, but well in the price, of 7 November, by Mikhail Shlemov et al		1 November		Company
		Inter RAO		IRAO RX		Inter RAO – 3Q18 IFRS; all that cash by Vladimir Sklyar et al		14 November		Bloomberg
		Unipro		UPRO RX		Unipro – 3Q18 IFRS; one more year, please, of 13 November, by Vladimir Sklyar et al		n/a		n/a
		Enel Russia		ENRU RX		Enel Russia – Strategic view - to SPO or not to SPO?, of 6 November, by Vladimir Sklyar et al		n/a		n/a
		Mosenergo		MSNG RX		Mosenergo – 9mo18; here comes the loss, of 13 November, by Vladimir Sklyar et al		n/a		n/a
		OGK-2		OGKB RX		OGK-2 – 9mo18; falling victim to market surplus, of 19 November, by Vladimir Sklyar et al		n/a		n/a
		TGK-1		TGKA RX		TGK-1 – 9mo18 IFRS; profits on track, dividends not in sight, of 9 November, by Vladimir Sklyar et al		n/a		n/a
		FSK		FEES RX		FSK – 9mo18; vote of confidence, of 19 November, by Vladimir Sklyar et al		n/a		n/a
		Rosseti		RSTI RX		Rosseti – 9mo18 IFRS; dividend yields could still be 2-3%, of 30 November, by Vladimir Sklyar et al		n/a		n/a
		Sistema		SSA LI		n/a		26 November		Interfax
		Source: Company data, Interfax, Bloomberg, VTB Capital Research

22

Equities

Russia

Watch Earnings