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Goldman Sachs
EM Macro Navigator
The EM Bookshelf: Recent GS EM Macro Research
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n Oil Drop — The implications of lower oil prices for growth, inflation and |
n Moving past the Stock Drop: what is priced and what to trade in EM: EM |
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monetary policy (November 29) |
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Strategy Views (October 31) |
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n EM Outlook 2019: A narrow path to performance (November 20) |
n Back to the lows, 5 Questions on the Equity-centric Sell-off: EM Strategy |
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n The rise in EM debt, the stability of EM balances: EM Macro Themes |
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Views(October 11) |
(October 26) |
n Sentiment firming, identifying ‘bounce-back’ opportunities in EM: EM |
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n Tracking the Dollarization of EM deposits: Global Markets Daily(October |
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Strategy Views (September 23) |
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n New school year, old EM volatility – we prefer equity for this semester: EM |
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n The Trade War: Bigger Numbers, Same Conclusion: Global Economics |
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Strategy Views(September 10) |
Analyst (October 5) |
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n Global Divergence: the US vs. EM (and the rest): Global Markets |
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Analyst (September 30) |
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China |
Rates/FX |
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n Xi-Trump meeting yields a “pause” in tariff escalation as US postpones |
n 2019 outlook and trade ideas (November 18) |
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deadline by two months (December 3) |
n Modelling EM Local Rates: Implications for 2019 Outlook: Global Markets |
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n The stakes of the Xi-Trump meeting for China: Asia Economics |
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Analyst (November 9) |
Analyst(November 30) |
n We recommend going long IDR bonds: EM Asia FX/Rates View (November |
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n China 2019 outlook: Testing resilience: Asia Economics Analyst |
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(November 16) |
n China’s Bond Market: On track for inclusion into the Global Aggregate index |
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n Early evidence of US tariffs’ impact on China and Asia: Asia Economics |
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from April 2019: Global Markets Daily (October 29) |
Analyst (November 14) |
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‘King Dollar’ Matters for EM Indices and Relative Value Trades : Global |
n Signals from markets - what are investors pricing in for Chinese |
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Markets Daily (October 18) |
growth? Asia in Focus (November 11) |
n Paying Low-Yielding EM Local Rates: Multiple Paths to Performance : Global |
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n China’s building machine to rev up again: Asia Economics Analyst |
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Markets Daily (October 12) |
(November 5) |
n Thailand and Indonesia trip notes: EM Asia FX/Rates View (October 11) |
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n China’s shantytown redevelopment: A housing and consumption boost, |
n Why Are Onshore Investors So Bearish About China?: Global Markets Daily |
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but early gains likely abating: Asia in Focus (November 2) |
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(October 4) |
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n Viewing the consumption outlook through the fiscal prism: Asia |
n Expressing a Hawkish Fed View in Asian Rates : Global Markets |
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Economics Analyst (September 26) |
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Daily(September 20) |
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n China: Inflation is reappearing on policymakers’ radar screens: Asia |
n Rising Rates and Risk: Global Markets Analyst (September 16) |
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Economics Analyst (September 13) |
n A rebuild of the EM ‘yield cushion’ : Global Markets Daily (September 13) |
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n China consumption worries: Goods spending decelerates as credit |
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impulse fades: Asia Economics Analyst (September 8) |
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n China Matters: Putting the ‘policy put’ in perspective: Asia Economics |
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Analyst (September 3) |
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EM Macro Navigator
Latam |
Equities |
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n Peru 2019 Macro Outlook: No News is Good News (November 20) |
n Earnings Revisions Leading Indicator (ERLI): Nov ‘18 pulse check: |
n Colombia 2019 Macro Outlook: All Eyes on Fiscal Reform (November |
Continuing earnings headwinds: Asia-Pacific Strategy (November 21) |
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n 2019 Outlook: Reform at a crossroads in its 40th anniversary year: China |
n Chile 2019 Macro Outlook: Soft Landing Ahead, with Lurking Inflation |
(November 19) |
Risks (November 20) |
n 2019 Outlook: Navigating the macro minefield: Asia Pacific Portfolio Strategy |
n Argentina 2019 Macro Outlook: Time for the 0070 Double-O Seven(ty) |
(November 18) |
Policy Combo (November 20) |
n MSCI and FTSE index inclusions: The ‘globalization’ of Chinese equities in |
n Mexico 2019 Macro Outlook: Rising Domestic Policy Risk (November |
motion: China Musings (October 28) |
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n Asian equities amidst a US correction: No escape, but potentially lower |
n Brazil 2019 Macro Outlook: A New Administration to Deal with Old |
beta: Asia Pacific Portfolio Strategy(October 26) |
Challenges (November 20) |
n An Economic Factor View of EM Equities : Global Markets Daily (Sep 27) |
n LatAm 2019 Macro Outlook: An Underwhelming Uneven Recovery |
n GICS reclassification: Unveiling the true face of the Chinese consumer: |
(November 15) |
China Musings(September 19) |
n Brazil: A New President; Old Challenges: Latin America Economics |
n 10 things we learnt from 4000+ companies’ 2018 interim results: China |
Analyst (October 29) |
Musings (September 14) |
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CEEMEA |
Credit |
n How long can Lebanon finance its deficits?: CEEMEA Economics |
n No let up in onshore defaults: China Default Watch(December 5) |
Analyst (December 3) |
n HK investors still cautious; tentative signs of easing in China onshore bond |
n Poland — Significant downside risks to NBP’s inflation forecast: |
market: Asia Credit Trader (November 30) |
CEEMEA in Focus(November 22) |
n What explains the Diverging Performance between EM Local and Dollar |
n Turkey: A firmer currency but no softening of the landing: CEEMEA |
Bonds?: Global Markets Daily (November 30) |
Economics Analyst(November 20) |
n Ratings Reflect Vulnerabilities in the EM Credit Universe: Global Markets |
n CEEMEA Outlook — Stabilisation at weaker levels: CEEMEA |
Daily (November 13) |
Economics Analyst (November 15) |
n The defensive quality of China Property HY; implied default probabilities on |
n Kenya — A return to stability and growth: CEEMEA Economics Analyst |
Asia HY: Asia Credit Trader (November 10) |
(November 9) |
n China investors less bearish, but still cautious; updated corporate perpetual |
n Saudi budget deficit shrinks on stronger revenues but masks underlying |
screen: Asia Credit Trader (November 2) |
slippage: CEEMEA in Focus (November 2) |
n Record Pace of China Bond Default Adds to Cautious Sentiment: Global |
n Turkey – Stress-testing the public-sector balance sheet: CEEMEA |
Markets Daily(November 1) |
Economics Analyst (October 24) |
n Singapore investors still cautious; addressing two key China property |
n South African fiscal consolidation to remain intact: CEEMEA in Focus |
concerns: Asia Credit Trader (October 12) |
(October 18) |
n Argentina and Turkey - Wider Sovereign Credit Spreads But Worse |
n Poland — Higher energy prices not a game changer for the NBP: |
Fundamentals : Global Markets Daily(October 5) |
CEEMEA in Focus(October 12) |
n Maintaining our preference for India IG; China onshore issuance pattern |
n Ghana — A window of opportunity opens: CEEMEA Economics Analyst |
suggests cautious attitude towards HY: Asia Credit Trader (October 5) |
(October 10) |
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11 December 2018 |
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EM Macro Navigator
EM Asia ex-China
nAsia tech cycle from a macro perspective: Asia in Focus(November 28)
nThailand 2019 Macro Outlook: Elections on the horizon: Asia in Focus
(November 23)
nPhilippines 2019 outlook: Rate hike cycle at an end as growth decelerates and inflation returns to target: Asia in Focus(November 22)
nIndonesia 2019 economic outlook: An engineered slowdown driven by tougher external conditions: Asia in Focus (November 21)
nIndia 2019 Outlook: Striving for convergence:Asia Economics Analyst
(November 20)
n2019 outlook for Asian exporters: Three potential global headwinds: Asia Economics Analyst (November 15)
n2019 Outlook—Everything in moderation: Asia Views (November 15)
nThe special dollar and a soggy dollar — Implications of the dominant currency paradigm for Asia : Asia Economics Analyst (October 11)
nAdjusting to “America First”: Asia Views (October 10)
nIndonesia introducing a DNDF curve to enhance FX market stability: Asia in Focus (October 4)
nIndia: RBI Policy Preview: Walking a Tightrope: Asia in Focus (September 27)
nMAS to tighten policy in October; limited scope for further SGD NEER appreciation: Asia in Focus (September 24)
nForecasting Asian rates curves: Asia Economics Analyst (September 17)
nPHP: Darkest before dawn: Asia in Focus (September 10)
Commodities
nFocus shifts from trade to China for now: Metals (December 2)
nIron ore sell-off partly a correction, partly an overreaction:
Metals(November 27)
nA value proposition for risk capital: Commodity Watch (November 25)
nSeeing copper through the macro factor lens: Metals Express(November 21)
nLatest oil sell-off prices in an unlikely return to 2016 fundamentals: Oil
(November 20)
nWhat copper demand revisions in 2018 tell us about 2019: Metals Express (November 14)
nA negative gamma effect sets oil up to snap back: Oil (November 13)
nAnother high-correlation sell-off doesn’t derail the bullish underlying commodity story: Commodity Watch (November 7)
nA re-anchoring of long-term oil prices?: Oil (November 1)
nAre Chinese exporters front-loading exports ahead of tariffs?: Metals Express(October 25)
nOil and Copper a tale of two cycles: Metals Express (October 20)
nMore macro risk, more policy easing: Still constructive: Metals Monitor(October 7)
nCopper Outlook 2019: A Delayed Climb: Metals (October 4)
nThe two sides of China industrial production data: Metals Express
(October 3)
nHow strong is China’s copper demand this year?: Metals Express
(September 14)
nThe link between CNY and metals prices: Metals Express(September 9)
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EM Macro Navigator
Thematic Spotlight: Our 2019 outlooks and their sensitivity to shocks
We formally rolled out our updated 2019 economic and market forecasts in mid-November. In addition to summary views on EM macro markets, this section features one-page summaries of our 2019 outlooks on Latin America, Brazil, CEEMEA, China, India, and Asian export economies. (Country-specific outlooks for a number of other EMs can be found on the 2019 outlook page on the GS research portal—links to these outlooks can also be found in the previous section of this report, “EM Bookshelf”.)
Markets have certainly not stood still in the weeks since publication. In particular, assessments of three key issues have been in flux:
nOil prices have fallen further, and OPEC reacted with planned cuts to production. For thoughts on the sensitivity to oil price shocks see “Oil Drop - the implications of lower oil prices for growth, inflation, and monetary policy” later in this section.
nMarkets have dialed back their expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, increasing the attractiveness of higher-yielding assets, including those in the EM space (and supporting our views that high-yielders are likely to outperform). However, our views have only changed on the margin, with our US team shifting its forecast from 4 to 3 hikes in 2019.
nThe US agreed to “pause” escalation of tariffs until March 1 in return for unspecified Chinese purchases of US agricultural goods, among other minor concessions, and a commitment to intensive negotiations over the next 90 days. See “Early evidence of US tariffs’ impact on China and Asia“.
For those interested in a complete compendium of all our global economics and market forecast, please see the 2019 outlook page on the GS research portal.
11 December 2018 |
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