GS EM Strategy Views_watermark

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Goldman Sachs

Performance of Select GBI-EM Countries

EM Strategy Views

		Returns (%)				5y Nominal Yield					5y Real Yield				Slope (5y-1y)
	wgt	1wk	3m	YTD	1wk	3m	YTD	Curr %	% vs hist		Curr	% vs hist			1wk	3mo	YTD		Curr
South Africa	8.3%	2.7	5.3	-4.6	-19	2	61	8.8	90%	3.6		96%	+3			+134	+169		265
Philippines	0.2%	2.0	0.7	-9.4	-5	100	189	7.1	98%	2.6		99%	-15			-111	-139		47
India	10.2%	1.8	2.4	-5.5	-4	-39	35	7.7	34%	2.9		71%	+2			-25	-42		39
Indonesia	8.8%	1.3	2.1	-9.2	-9	28	210	8.2	70%	4.5		93%	-0			+13	+86		162
Korea	0.0%	0.5	2.6	1.0	-5	-15	-33	2.0	35%	0.2		31%	-3			-20	-18		13
Turkey	3.6%	0.5	51.6	-30.4	32	-885	494	17.2	93%	-1.8		0%	+6			-526	-213		-357
Peru	2.0%	0.5	-2.7	-3.0	-13	24	72	4.8	56%	2.4		73%	-26			-30	+74		216
Poland	8.1%	0.4	-1.3	-5.1	-8	-1	-13	2.5	23%	0.2		0%	-5			-2	-1		121
Hungary	3.2%	0.3	-0.3	-11.1	-18	7	151	2.6	38%	-0.5		19%	-10			+31	+118		223
China	9.9%	0.1	1.0	-0.4	2	-22	-60	3.2	47%	0.9		62%	+10			+23	+66		72
Thailand	6.4%	0.1	0.1	-0.7	-8	-3	45	2.4	33%	0.9		68%	-4			-13	+4		54
Malaysia	3.5%	0.0	-1.7	-1.2	2	15	22	4.0	96%	2.1		96%	+1			+7	-37		56
Czech Rep	2.7%	-0.1	-2.3	-8.8	-3	13	96	1.8	62%	-0.5		50%	-23			-10	-11		44
Romania	2.0%	-0.1	-1.5	-3.3	0	5	54	4.5	43%	--		--	+4			+6	-46		105
Chile	0.1%	-0.5	-0.4	-6.2	-9	11	17	4.3	49%	1.1		37%	+0			-19	-29		83
Russia	5.3%	-0.9	4.7	-12.4	10	10	135	8.6	53%	4.2		99%	+7			+0	+20		90
Mexico	8.9%	-1.1	-11.4	-4.2	8	116	130	9.2	100%	5.3		0%	+5			+40	+28		32
Brazil	9.6%	-1.3	15.0	-4.1	-20	-230	-49	9.3	9%	5.1		13%	-19			-132	-34		242
Argentina*	0.4%	-1.6	-16.9	-53.5	0	140	791	23.9	89%	--		--	-54			+556	+823		466
Colombia	4.8%	-1.6	-7.1	-4.0	-1	19	41	6.3	46%	3.0		53%	+1			-7	+5		142
MENA	8.3%	2.7	5.3	-4.6	-19	2	61	8.8	90%	3.6
												96%
Asia	39.0%	0.8	1.3	-3.9	-7	16	119	5.4	62%	2.8		85%				Green = Cheap
Europe	24.9%	0.0	5.2	-12.4	2	-139	134	6.5	46%	0.7		27%				Red = Expensive
Latin America	27.7%	-1.1	-0.7	-5.1	-6	-38	52	8.6	52%	4.5		20%				(as %-ile vs history)
GBI-EM	--	0.3	2.0	-6.4	-5	-49	75	5.8	54%	1.7
												59%				* indicates GBI Yield Used

5y Yield (%)			Rates
14			Level vs Slope
12
10	MXN				BRL
		RUB				ZAR
8				IDR
	INR
	PHP		COP
6
	MYR	CLP			PEN
4		RON
	KRW	CNY	PLN		HUF
2	THB
	CZK
0					Slope (5y-1y, bps)
0	50	100	150	200	250	300	350

	6	5y Real Rates
	5
	4
	3	5y less 12mo infl exp (%)
	2
	1
	0
	-1
	-2

-3

Mexico

Brazil

Indonesia

Russia

South Africa

Colombia

India

Philippines

Peru

Malaysia

Chile

Thailand

China

Korea

Poland

Hungary

Czech Republic

Turkey

7			Local Rate Risk Premium														Regional Relative Performance vs GBI-EM
		(5y local - 5y USD Debt Interest Rate)													137
6
															133
5															129
4															125
															121
3																												Africa
															117
2											5y Average				113
1															109
															105
0																												Asia
															101
-1															97													Latam
-2															93													Europe
															89
-3	Philippines	India	Russia	Brazil	Indonesia	Mexico	AfricaSouth	Colombia	Peru	Chile	Malaysia	Poland	China	Hungary	85	12/23/2017	1/23/2018	2/23/2018	3/23/2018	4/23/2018	5/23/2018	6/23/2018	7/23/2018	8/23/2018	9/23/2018	10/23/2018	11/23/2018	12/23/2018
Turkey															11/23/2017
-4

Source: Datastream, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

26 November 2018

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Goldman Sachs

Emerging Market Yield Curves

EM Strategy Views

13		Brazil						5.0				Chile					4.0		China						8.0				Colombia
																	3.8								7.5
								4.5
12																									7.0
		3mo ago															3.6
11								4.0									3.4								6.5
10								3.5									3.2								6.0
																									5.5
9																	3.0
				Current				3.0																	5.0
8																	2.8
																									4.5
								2.5
7																	2.6								4.0
6								2.0									2.4								3.5
3m	6m	1y	2y	5y		7y	10y	3m	6m		1y		2y	5y	7y	10y	1y		2y	5y		7y		10y	3m		6m		1y	2y		5y			7y	10y
2.5	Czech Republic							4.0			Hungary						8.5		India						9.0				Indonesia
								3.5
2.0																	8.3								8.5
								3.0									8.1								8.0
1.5								2.5									7.9								7.5
								2.0									7.7								7.0
1.0																	7.5
								1.5																	6.5
																	7.3
0.5								1.0																	6.0
																	7.1
								0.5																	5.5
0.0																	6.9
								0.0
																									5.0
																	6.7
-0.5								-0.5									6.5								4.5
1m	3m	6m	1y	2y	5y	7y	10y	3m	6m			1y	2y	5y	7y	10y	3m	6m	1y	2y		5y	7y	10y	1m	3m		6m		1y	2y		5y		7y	10y
2.8		Korea						4.8				Malaysia					9.6		Mexico						7.0				Peru
2.5																	9.4
								4.5
2.2																									6.0
																	9.2
1.9								4.3									9.0								5.0
1.6
								4.0									8.8
1.3																									4.0
																	8.6
								3.8
1.0
0.7								3.5									8.4								3.0
																	8.2
0.4								3.3																	2.0
0.1																	8.0
-0.2								3.0									7.8								1.0
6m	1y		2y	5y		7y	10y	3m	6m			1y	2y	5y	7y	10y	1m	3m	6m	1y	2y	5y	7y	10y	3m	6m			1y	2y		5y			7y	10y
8.0		Philippines						3.5				Poland					5.5		Romania						9.0				Russia
7.5																	5.0								8.8
								3.0
7.0
																									8.6
6.5								2.5									4.5								8.4
6.0
																									8.2
																	4.0
5.5								2.0																	8.0
5.0																	3.5								7.8
								1.5
4.5
																									7.6
4.0								1.0									3.0								7.4
3.5
																									7.2
																	2.5
3.0								0.5																	7.0
																	3m	6m	1y		2y	5y		7y
1m	3m	6m	1y	2y	5y	7y	10y	1m	3m	6m		1y	2y	5y	7y	10y									3m	6m		1y		2y		5y			7y	10y
10.5	South Africa							1.0			Taiwan						3.3		Thailand						31				Turkey
10.0
																	3.0
								0.9																	29
9.5
																	2.8
9.0								0.8																	27
8.5																	2.5								25
8.0								0.7									2.3								23
7.5
																	2.0								21
7.0								0.6
																									19
6.5																	1.8
								0.5																	17
6.0																	1.5
5.5																									15
								0.4									1.3
5.0																									13
4.5								0.3									1.0								11
3m	6m	1y	2y	5y		7y	10y	1m	3m	6m		1y	2y	5y	7y	10y	3m	6m	1y	2y	5y	7y		10y	3m	6m		1y		2y		5y		7y		10y

Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

26 November 2018

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Goldman Sachs

FX Performance Relative to EM Basket

EM Strategy Views

	105			Brazil			5.0%	105
						12mo FX		104
	100					Carry	4.5%	103
						(RHS)
							4.0%	102
	95							101
			vs.				3.5%	100
	90		EM FX					99
			Basket				3.0%	98
	85						2.5%	97
								96
	80	Relative Perf					2.0%	95
		Nov-17	Feb-18	May-18	Aug-18	Nov-18
	106		Czech Republic				(1.0%)
								102
	104
							(1.5%)	100
	102							98
	100						(2.0%)	96
	98							94
							(2.5%)
	96							92
	94	Nov-17	Feb-18	May-18	Aug-18	Nov-18	(3.0%)	90
	105			Korea			0.0%
							(0.2%)	114
	104
	103						(0.4%)	112
	102						(0.6%)	110
	101						(0.8%)	108
	100						(1.0%)	106
							(1.2%)
								104
	99
							(1.4%)
	98						(1.6%)	102
	97						(1.8%)	100
	96	Nov-17	Feb-18	May-18	Aug-18	Nov-18	(2.0%)	98
	110		Philippines				3.0%	105
	108
								104
	106						2.5%	103
	104							102
	102
							2.0%	101
	100
	98							100
	96						1.5%	99
	94							98
	92	Nov-17	Feb-18	May-18	Aug-18	Nov-18	1.0%	97
	103			Taiwan			(1.5%)	107
	102							106
	101						(2.0%)	105
	100							104
	99						(2.5%)	103
								102
	98							101
	97						(3.0%)	100
	96							99
	95	Nov-17	Feb-18	May-18	Aug-18	Nov-18	(3.5%)	98

		Chile
Nov-17	Feb-18	May-18	Aug-18	Nov-18
		Hungary

Nov-17

Feb-18

May-18

Aug-18

Nov-18

Malaysia

Nov-17	Feb-18	May-18	Aug-18	Nov-18
		Poland
Nov-17	Feb-18	May-18	Aug-18	Nov-18
		Thailand

Nov-17

Feb-18

May-18

Aug-18

Nov-18

4.0%	107		China		2.0%
						113
3.5%	106					111
					1.5%
3.0%	105					109
2.5%	104				1.0%	107
2.0%	103					105
					0.5%
1.5%	102					103
1.0%	101				0.0%	101
0.5%	100				-0.5%	99
0.0%	99					97
(0.5%)	98	Feb-18		Aug-18	-1.0%	95
	Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
			India		4.6%
(1.6%)	104				4.5%	104
(1.8%)					4.4%
	102				4.3%	102
(2.0%)
					4.2%
(2.2%)	100				4.1%	100
(2.4%)	98				4.0%	98
(2.6%)					3.9%
	96				3.8%	96
(2.8%)					3.7%
(3.0%)	94	Feb-18		Aug-18	3.6%	94
	Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
			Mexico		8.0%
1.4%						109
	111				7.5%
1.2%						107
1.0%	106				7.0%	105
0.8%	101				6.5%	103
0.6%						101
	96				6.0%
0.4%						99
0.2%	91				5.5%	97
0.0%	86	Feb-18		Aug-18	5.0%	95
	Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
	102		Russia		6.0%	120
0.2%
0.0%	100				5.5%	115
(0.2%)	98				5.0%	110
(0.4%)	96				4.5%	105
(0.6%)
	94				4.0%	100
(0.8%)
(1.0%)	92				3.5%	95
(1.2%)	90	Feb-18		Aug-18	3.0%	90
	Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
0.0%	105		Turkey		36.0%
						106
	100
	95				31.0%	104
(0.5%)	90				26.0%	102
	85					100
(1.0%)					21.0%	98
	80
	75				16.0%	96
(1.5%)	70					94
					11.0%
	65					92
(2.0%)	60	Feb-18		Aug-18	6.0%	90
	Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18

		Colombia		3.5%
				3.0%
				2.5%
				2.0%
				1.5%
	Feb-18		Aug-18	1.0%
Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
		Indonesia		6%
				5%
				4%
				3%
	Feb-18		Aug-18	2%
Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
		Peru		2.1%
				1.9%
				1.7%
				1.5%
				1.3%
				1.1%
				0.9%
				0.7%
	Feb-18		Aug-18	0.5%
Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
	South Africa			6.5%

				6.0%
				5.5%
				5.0%
				4.5%
	Feb-18		Aug-18	4.0%
Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
	EM FX Basket			2.9%
				2.7%
	Total			2.5%
	Return			2.3%
	vs USD
				2.1%
				1.9%
				1.7%
	Feb-18		Aug-18	1.5%
Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

26 November 2018

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Goldman Sachs

Equities Performance Relative to MSCI

EM Strategy Views

145		Brazil		120
135
				115
125	vs. MSCI EM
115	(Local FX)			110
105				105
95
	vs. MSCI EM			100
85	(USD)
75	Feb-18		Aug-18	95
Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
125	Czech Republic			120
120				115
115				110
				105
110
				100
105
				95
100				90
95				85
90	Feb-18		Aug-18	80
Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
102		Korea		125
100				120
98				115
				110
96
				105
94				100
92				95
90				90
88	Feb-18		Aug-18	85
Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
115		Philippines		115
110				110
105				105
100				100
95				95
90				90
85				85
80	Feb-18		Aug-18	80
Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
115		Taiwan
110				121
105				116
100				111
95				106
90				101
85	Feb-18		Aug-18	96
Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18

		Chile		115
				110
				105
				100
				95
				90
	Feb-18		Aug-18	85
Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
		Hungary		120
				115
				110
				105
				100
				95
				90
	Feb-18		Aug-18	85
Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
		Malaysia		120

				115
				110
				105
				100
				95
				90
				85
	Feb-18		Aug-18	80
Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
		Poland		140
				130
				120
				110
				100
				90
	Feb-18		Aug-18	80
Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
		Thailand		120
				110
				100
				90
				80
				70
				60
				50
	Feb-18		Aug-18	40
Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18

		China			135		Colombia
					130
					125
					120
					115
					110
					105
					100
					95
					90
	Feb-18		Aug-18		85	Feb-18		Aug-18
Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18	Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
		India			120		Indonesia
					115
					110
					105
					100
					95
					90
					85
					80
Nov-17	Feb-18		Aug-18	Nov-18	75	Feb-18		Aug-18
		May-18			Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
		Mexico			130		Peru
					125
					120
					115
					110
					105
					100
					95
	Feb-18		Aug-18		90	Feb-18		Aug-18
Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18	Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18
		Russia			120	South Africa
					115
					110
					105
					100
					95
					90
					85
	Feb-18				80	Feb-18		Aug-18	Nov-18
Nov-17		May-18	Aug-18	Nov-18	Nov-17		May-18
		Turkey			1300		MSCI EM
					1250		Performance
					1200			(USD)
					1150			Performance
								(Local FX)
					1100
					1050
					1000
					950
Nov-17	Feb-18		Aug-18	Nov-18	900	Feb-18		Aug-18
		May-18			Nov-17		May-18		Nov-18

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

26 November 2018

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Goldman Sachs

EM Strategy Views

Country Performance Relative to EMBI (Global Div.)

106	Brazil						200	104
105				Total Return			220	103
104
				vs. EMBI			240
103				(Glb. Div)				102
102							260	101
101							280
100							300	100
99		Credit					320	99
98
		Spread						98
97		(RHS,					340
96		inverted)					360	97
		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18
Nov-17	Jan-18				Sep-18	Nov-18	Jan-19
111	Czech							104
109	Republic							103
								102
107								101
105								100
103								99
101								98
99								97
97		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18		96
Nov-17	Jan-18						Jan-19
107	Korea							106
105								105
								104
103								103
101								102
99								101
								100
97								99
95		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18		98
Nov-17	Jan-18						Jan-19
103	Philippines						60	106
102							70	105
101							80	104
								103
100
							90	102
99
							100	101
98
								100
97							110
								99
							120
96								98
95							130	97
94		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18		Nov-18	140	96
Nov-17	Jan-18				Sep-18		Jan-19
120	Taiwan							108
115								106
110
105								104
100
95		Data Unavailable						102
90								100
85
80								98
75
70		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18				96
Nov-17	Jan-18				Sep-18	Nov-18	Jan-19

	Chile						100	106		China							120	107
								104									130
							110
								102										105
																	140
							120	100									150	103
								98
							130										160
								96										101
							140	94									170	99
																	180
								92
							150											97
								90									190
Nov-17		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	160	88	Nov-17		Mar-18		May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	200	95
	Jan-18						Jan-19			Jan-18							Jan-19
	Hungary						70	105		India							80	103
							80	104									90	102
								103									100
							90
																		101
							100	102									110
								101									120
							110											100
								100									130
							120
								99									140	99
							130
								98									150	98
							140
								97									160
																		97
							150	96									170
Nov-17		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	160	95	Nov-17		Mar-18		May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	180	96
	Jan-18						Jan-19			Jan-18							Jan-19
	Malaysia						90	101	Mexico								210	105
							100	101									220	104
							110	100									230	103
							120	100									240	102
							130	99									250	101
							140
								99									260	100
							150	98									270
																		99
							160	98									280
																		98
							170	97									290
																		97
							180	97									300
Nov-17		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	190	96									310	96
	Jan-18						Jan-19	Nov-	17	Jan18 Mar-	18	May-	18	Jul-18	Sep18	Nov18	Jan19
	Poland						25	104		Russia							140	105
							35	103									160	104
							45	102									180	103
								101										102
							55
								100									200	101
							65	99									220	100
							75	98									240	99
								97										98
							85
																	260
								96										97
							95
								95									280	96
		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18		Nov-18					Mar-18		May-18	Jul-18		Nov-18
Nov-17	Jan-18				Sep-18		Jan-19		Nov-17	Jan-18					Sep-18		Jan-19
	Thailand							105		Turkey							240	104
																	290
								100									340	102
								95									390	100
																	440	98
								90									490	96
																	540
																		94
								85									590
																		92
																	640
		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18				80			Mar-18		May-18	Jul-18			690	90
Nov-17	Jan-18				Sep-18	Nov-18	Jan-19		Nov-17	Jan-18					Sep-18	Nov-18	Jan-19

	Colombia						145
							155
							165
							175
							185
							195
							205
							215
Nov-17		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	225
	Jan-18						Jan-19
	Indonesia						140
							150
							160
							170
							180
							190
							200
							210
							220
							230
Nov-17		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	240
	Jan-18						Jan-19

	Peru						100
							110
							120
							130
							140
							150
							160
							170
							180
							190
Nov-17		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	200
	Jan-18						Jan-19

	South Africa						200
							220
							240
							260
							280
							300
							320
							340
							360
Nov-17		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	380
	Jan-18						Jan-19

	EMBI (Gl. Div.)						220
							240
							260
							280
							300
							320
							340
							360
	Absolute						380
	Return						400
Nov-17		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	420
	Jan-18						Jan-19

Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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Goldman Sachs

Country Performance Relative to GBI-EM

EM Strategy Views

105	Brazil						8.0%	115	Chile						3.0%	113	China						3.0%	120
							8.5%								3.1%	111							3.2%
100								110								109								115
															3.2%
95							9.0%	105							3.3%	107							3.4%	110
																105
	Total Return						9.5%								3.4%								3.6%
90	vs. GBI-EM							100							3.5%	103								105
					Bond		10.0%									101							3.8%
85								95							3.6%	99								100
					Yield		10.5%																4.0%
					(RHS,										3.7%	97
					inverted)
80		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18			11.0%	90		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18			3.8%	95		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18			4.2%	95
Nov-17	Jan-18				Sep-18	Nov-18	Jan-19	Nov-17	Jan-18				Sep-18	Nov-18	Jan-19	Nov-17	Jan-18				Sep-18	Nov-18	Jan-19
115	Czech Republic							104	Hungary						1.0%	104	India						6.5%	103
															1.2%								6.7%	101
																102
110								102							1.4%								6.9%
																								99
																100
								100							1.6%								7.1%	97
105															1.8%	98							7.3%	95
								98
															2.0%								7.5%
																								93
100								96							2.2%	96							7.7%
															2.4%	94							7.9%	91
								94																89
95															2.6%								8.1%
																92
								92							2.8%								8.3%	87
90		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18				90		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18			3.0%	90		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18			8.5%	85
Nov-17	Jan-18				Sep-18	Nov-18	Jan-19	Nov-17	Jan-18				Sep-18	Nov-18	Jan-19	Nov-17	Jan-18				Sep-18	Nov-18	Jan-19
117	Korea						2.0%	120	Malaysia						3.7%	115	Mexico						6.5%	120
							2.1%								3.8%	110							7.0%
112								115																115
							2.2%								3.9%
																							7.5%
																105
107							2.3%	110							4.0%								8.0%	110
							2.4%								4.1%	100
102							2.5%	105							4.2%								8.5%	105
																95
																							9.0%
							2.6%								4.3%
97								100																100
																90							9.5%
							2.7%								4.4%
92		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	2.8%	95		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	4.5%	85		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	10.0%	95
Nov-17	Jan-18						Jan-19	Nov-17	Jan-18						Jan-19	Nov-17	Jan-18						Jan-19
110	Philippines						4.5%	109	Poland						2.2%	106	Russia						6.5%	140
108															2.3%	104								135
								107
106							5.0%								2.4%	102							7.0%	130
104																								125
								105
															2.5%	100
102							5.5%																7.5%	120
100								103							2.6%	98								115
98							6.0%								2.7%	96							8.0%	110
								101
96																								105
															2.8%	94
94							6.5%																	100
								99															8.5%
															2.9%	92
92																								95
90		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	7.0%	97		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	3.0%	90		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18		90
Nov-17	Jan-18						Jan-19	Nov-17	Jan-18						Jan-19	Nov-17	Jan-18						Jan-19
120	Taiwan						0%	112	Thailand						2.0%	110	Turkey						8%	110
115							1%	110							2.1%	100							10%
							2%								2.2%									105
110																							12%
							3%	108								90
105															2.3%
							4%																14%
															2.4%									100
100							5%	106								80							16%
															2.5%
95	Data Unavailable						6%	104								70							18%
90							7%								2.6%									95
																							20%
85							8%	102							2.7%	60
							9%																22%
80															2.8%									90
							10%
								100								50
75															2.9%								24%
							11%
70			Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18		12%	98				Jul-18			3.0%	40				Jul-18			26%	85
Nov-17	Jan-18					Sep-18		Nov-17	Jan-18	Mar-18	May-18		Sep-18	Nov-18	Jan-19	Nov-17	Jan-18	Mar-18	May-18		Sep-18	Nov-18	Jan-19

	Colombia	6.0%
		6.1%
		6.2%
		6.3%
		6.4%
		6.5%
		6.6%
		6.7%
		6.8%
		6.9%
		7.0%

Nov-17	Jan-18	Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	Jan-19
	Indonesia						6.0%
							6.5%
							7.0%
							7.5%
							8.0%
							8.5%
Nov-17		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	9.0%
	Jan-18						Jan-19
	Peru						4.5%
							4.7%
							4.9%
							5.1%
							5.3%
							5.5%
							5.7%
							5.9%
Nov-17	Jan-18	Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	Jan-19
	South Africa						8.0%

							8.5%
							9.0%
							9.5%
							10.0%
		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	10.5%
Nov-17	Jan-18						Jan-19
	GBI-EM						5.8%
							6.0%
							6.2%
							6.4%
							6.6%
		Absolute					6.8%
		Return
Nov-17		Mar-18	May-18	Jul-18	Sep-18	Nov-18	7.0%
	Jan-18						Jan-19

Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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EM Strategy Views

Other disclosures

MSCI

All MSCI data used in this report is the exclusive property of MSCI, Inc. (MSCI). Without prior written permission of MSCI, this information and any other MSCI intellectual property may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used to create any financial instruments or products or any indices. This information is provided on an “as is” basis, and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Neither MSCI, any of its affiliates nor any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the data makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to this information (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and MSCI, its affiliates and any such third party hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the data have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. MSCI and the MSCI indexes are service marks of MSCI and its affiliates. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) were developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and Standard & Poor’s. GICS is a service mark of MSCI and S&P and has been licensed for use by The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

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