vk.com/id446425943
NOVEMBER 7, 2018 RUSSIAN RETAIL – DISRUPTED BY SPECIALISTS
Company Data Profiles
26 |
SBERBANK CIB INVESTMENT RESEARCH |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of strogaas@baltinvest.com |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of strogaas@baltinvest.com |
vk.com/id446425943
RUSSIAN RETAIL – DISRUPTED BY SPECIALISTS NOVEMBER 7, 2018
GDR |
|
FIVE LI |
Recommendation |
|
BUY |
Last price |
|
$24.58 |
Target price |
(from $38.00) |
$31.00 |
Upside |
|
26% |
Free float |
|
36% |
|
|
|
Market cap |
$6,668 mln |
|
Enterprise value |
$9,553 mln |
|
ADT, 100 days |
$7.4 mln |
|
Prices as of November 5, 2018 |
|
|
Key data
|
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
Financials (IFRS), R mln |
|
|
|
|
Revenues |
1,527,272 |
1,738,406 |
1,954,510 |
2,170,202 |
EBITDA |
108,021 |
122,454 |
140,722 |
159,093 |
EBIT |
60,178 |
66,362 |
76,691 |
87,793 |
Net income |
32,479 |
38,780 |
47,475 |
58,517 |
Adjusted EPS, R |
120 |
143 |
175 |
216 |
Profitability |
|
|
|
|
EBITDA margin |
7% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
EBIT margin |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
Net margin |
2% |
2% |
2% |
3% |
Price ratios |
|
|
|
|
P/S |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
EV/EBITDA |
5.8 |
5.1 |
4.4 |
3.7 |
P/E |
13.6 |
11.4 |
9.3 |
7.5 |
P/CF |
5.4 |
4.3 |
3.7 |
3.2 |
Growth |
|
|
|
|
Revenues |
18% |
14% |
12% |
11% |
EBITDA |
12% |
13% |
15% |
13% |
Adjusted EPS |
3% |
19% |
22% |
23% |
Price performance, %
|
1m |
3m |
6m |
YTD |
GDR |
17.5 |
7.2 |
15.7 |
34.9 |
Relative to RTS |
20.0 |
6.4 |
16.2 |
33.8 |
Price performance, $
45
40 |
|
|
|
|
|
35 |
|
|
|
|
|
30 |
|
|
|
|
|
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
Nov '17 Jan '18 Mar '18 |
May '18 Jul '18 Sep '18 |
||||
|
|
Share price |
|
|
Relative to RTS |
|
|
|
|
||
Max 43.74 (Jan 11, ’18) |
Min 19.40 (Oct 11, ’18) |
||||
|
|||||
Source: Bloomberg, Sberbank CIB Investment Research |
|||||
Ownership structure
Alfa Group |
47.9% |
Founders of Pyaterochka |
14.4% |
Free float |
37.6% |
Management |
0.1% |
Treasury shares |
0.0% |
X5 Retail Group
X5 Retail Group IFRS financials, R mln
|
2016 |
2017 |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
2022E |
INCOME STATEMENT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenues |
1,033,667 |
1,294,582 |
1,527,272 |
1,738,406 |
1,954,510 |
2,170,202 |
2,281,709 |
COGS |
(783,682) |
(985,644) |
(1,157,157) |
(1,315,385) |
(1,479,331) |
(1,643,293) |
(1,728,240) |
Gross income |
249,985 |
308,938 |
370,114 |
423,021 |
475,179 |
526,909 |
553,469 |
Gross margin |
24.2% |
23.9% |
24.2% |
24.3% |
24.3% |
24.3% |
24.3% |
SG&A |
(211,315) |
(259,376) |
(319,605) |
(367,664) |
(410,862) |
(452,855) |
(483,965) |
EBITDA |
76,266 |
96,193 |
108,021 |
122,454 |
140,722 |
159,093 |
163,096 |
Adjusted EBITDA |
76,266 |
96,193 |
108,021 |
122,454 |
140,722 |
159,093 |
163,096 |
EBITDA margin |
7.4% |
7.4% |
7.1% |
7.0% |
7.2% |
7.3% |
7.1% |
DD&A |
(30,636) |
(38,435) |
(47,843) |
(56,092) |
(64,031) |
(71,300) |
(79,147) |
EBIT |
45,630 |
57,758 |
60,178 |
66,362 |
76,691 |
87,793 |
83,949 |
Interest income |
(16,978) |
(15,942) |
(17,687) |
(17,887) |
(17,347) |
(14,647) |
(10,867) |
Forex gain |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Revaluation gain |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Other gains |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Exceptionals |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
EBT |
28,652 |
41,816 |
42,492 |
48,475 |
59,344 |
73,146 |
73,082 |
Income tax |
(6,362) |
(10,422) |
(10,013) |
(9,695) |
(11,869) |
(14,629) |
(14,616) |
Minority interest |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Discontinued operations |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Net income |
22,290 |
31,394 |
32,479 |
38,780 |
47,475 |
58,517 |
58,466 |
Adjusted net income |
22,290 |
31,394 |
32,479 |
38,780 |
47,475 |
58,517 |
58,466 |
Net margin |
2.2% |
2.4% |
2.1% |
2.2% |
2.4% |
2.7% |
2.6% |
EPS, R |
82.17 |
115.73 |
119.73 |
142.95 |
175.01 |
215.71 |
215.52 |
Adjusted EPS, R |
82.17 |
115.73 |
119.73 |
142.95 |
175.01 |
215.71 |
215.52 |
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Assets |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash and equivalents |
18,190 |
27,605 |
8,038 |
12,938 |
12,350 |
(5,749) |
(22,623) |
Receivables |
37,903 |
32,262 |
38,061 |
43,322 |
48,708 |
54,083 |
56,862 |
Inventories |
73,983 |
99,406 |
117,273 |
133,486 |
150,079 |
166,642 |
175,204 |
Other current assets |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Total current assets |
130,076 |
159,273 |
163,372 |
189,746 |
211,137 |
214,975 |
209,442 |
Total non current assets |
343,409 |
405,985 |
441,897 |
461,802 |
478,073 |
479,881 |
479,583 |
Total assets |
473,485 |
565,258 |
605,269 |
651,548 |
689,210 |
694,856 |
689,026 |
Liabilities |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Short term borrowings |
45,168 |
58,674 |
33,124 |
33,124 |
31,124 |
23,124 |
17,124 |
Payables |
131,180 |
130,766 |
153,521 |
173,198 |
191,826 |
209,800 |
217,189 |
Other current liabilities |
51,022 |
74,735 |
76,364 |
86,920 |
97,725 |
108,510 |
114,085 |
Total current liabilities |
227,370 |
264,175 |
263,009 |
293,242 |
320,676 |
341,435 |
348,399 |
Long term borrowings |
110,865 |
135,622 |
165,622 |
165,622 |
155,622 |
115,622 |
85,622 |
Other non current liabilities |
8,210 |
7,019 |
7,317 |
7,317 |
7,218 |
6,820 |
6,522 |
Total non current liabilities |
119,075 |
142,641 |
172,939 |
172,939 |
162,840 |
122,442 |
92,144 |
Total liabilities |
346,445 |
406,816 |
435,948 |
466,182 |
483,516 |
463,877 |
440,543 |
Minority interest |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Equity |
127,040 |
158,442 |
169,321 |
185,366 |
205,695 |
230,979 |
248,483 |
Total liabilities and equity |
473,485 |
565,258 |
605,269 |
651,548 |
689,210 |
694,856 |
689,026 |
Net debt/(cash) |
137,843 |
166,691 |
190,709 |
185,808 |
174,397 |
144,496 |
125,370 |
CASH FLOW STATEMENT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net income |
22,290 |
31,394 |
32,479 |
38,780 |
47,475 |
58,517 |
58,466 |
Minority interest |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
DD&A |
30,636 |
38,435 |
47,843 |
56,092 |
64,031 |
71,300 |
79,147 |
Working capital change |
20,056 |
(11,386) |
717 |
8,760 |
7,454 |
6,822 |
1,623 |
Other assets change |
1,933 |
215 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Operating cash flow |
74,915 |
58,658 |
81,039 |
103,632 |
118,960 |
136,639 |
139,236 |
Maintenance capex |
(2,996) |
(3,813) |
(8,999) |
(15,307) |
(22,714) |
(24,781) |
(63,972) |
Expansionary capex |
(72,356) |
(81,009) |
(74,041) |
(60,063) |
(57,077) |
(48,269) |
(14,887) |
Other investments |
(1,927) |
(2,452) |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Investing cash flow |
(77,279) |
(87,274) |
(83,040) |
(75,370) |
(79,791) |
(73,051) |
(78,859) |
Change in debt |
11,818 |
38,017 |
4,450 |
– |
(12,000) |
(48,000) |
(36,000) |
Dividends paid |
– |
– |
(21,600) |
(22,735) |
(27,146) |
(33,232) |
(40,962) |
Share issues/(purchases) |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Other |
(2,135) |
– |
(417) |
(627) |
(612) |
(455) |
(289) |
Financing cash flow |
9,683 |
38,017 |
(17,566) |
(23,362) |
(39,758) |
(81,687) |
(77,251) |
Forex effects |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Net change in cash |
7,319 |
9,401 |
(19,567) |
4,900 |
(588) |
(18,099) |
(16,874) |
RATIOS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
P/E |
21.3 |
15.1 |
14.6 |
12.2 |
10.0 |
8.1 |
8.1 |
EV/EBITDA |
8.0 |
6.7 |
6.2 |
5.4 |
4.6 |
3.9 |
3.7 |
P/BV |
3.7 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
Net debt/EBITDA |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
Total debt/EBITDA |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
ROE |
19.2% |
22.0% |
19.8% |
21.9% |
24.3% |
26.8% |
24.4% |
ROIC |
12.5% |
12.3% |
12.5% |
13.8% |
15.6% |
19.0% |
19.1% |
Dividend per share, R |
– |
– |
79.62 |
83.81 |
100.07 |
122.50 |
151.00 |
Dividend yield |
– |
– |
4.6% |
4.8% |
5.7% |
7.0% |
8.6% |
P/S |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
P/CF |
6.3 |
8.1 |
5.8 |
4.6 |
4.0 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
Revenue growth |
28% |
25% |
18% |
14% |
12% |
11% |
5% |
EBITDA growth |
38% |
26% |
12% |
13% |
15% |
13% |
3% |
EPS growth |
57% |
41% |
3% |
19% |
22% |
23% |
0% |
Source: Company, Sberbank CIB Investment Research
SBERBANK CIB INVESTMENT RESEARCH |
27 |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of strogaas@baltinvest.com |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of strogaas@baltinvest.com |
vk.com/id446425943
NOVEMBER 7, 2018 RUSSIAN RETAIL – DISRUPTED BY SPECIALISTS
GDR |
LNTA LI |
Recommendation |
BUY |
Last price |
$3.72 |
Target price |
(from $8.00) $5.50 |
Upside |
48% |
Free float |
58% |
|
|
Market cap |
$1,810 mln |
Enterprise value |
$3,268 mln |
ADT, 100 days |
$1.7 mln |
Prices as of November 5, 2018 |
|
Key data
|
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
Financials (IFRS), R mln |
|
|
|
|
Revenues |
417,698 |
452,251 |
488,178 |
523,720 |
EBITDA |
37,994 |
39,991 |
42,645 |
45,301 |
EBIT |
27,503 |
28,632 |
30,383 |
32,147 |
Net income |
14,578 |
15,179 |
17,465 |
20,445 |
Adjusted EPS, R |
29.96 |
31.19 |
35.89 |
42.02 |
Profitability |
|
|
|
|
EBITDA margin |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
EBIT margin |
7% |
6% |
6% |
6% |
Net margin |
3% |
3% |
4% |
4% |
Price ratios |
|
|
|
|
P/S |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
EV/EBITDA |
5.7 |
5.1 |
4.4 |
3.7 |
P/E |
8.2 |
7.9 |
6.9 |
5.9 |
P/CF |
4.9 |
4.4 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
Growth |
|
|
|
|
Revenues |
14% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
EBITDA |
8% |
5% |
7% |
6% |
Adjusted EPS |
10% |
4% |
15% |
17% |
Price performance, %
|
1m |
3m |
6m |
YTD |
GDR |
6.3 |
25.6 |
35.4 |
36.1 |
Relative to RTS |
8.6 |
24.9 |
35.8 |
35.0 |
Price performance, $
7.5 |
|
7.0 |
|
6.5 |
|
6.0 |
|
5.5 |
|
5.0 |
|
4.5 |
|
4.0 |
|
3.5 |
|
3.0 |
|
Nov '17 Jan '18 Mar '18 |
May '18 Jul '18 Sep '18 |
Share price |
Relative to RTS |
Max 7.15 (Jan 24, ’18) |
Min 3.30 (Oct 10, ’18) |
Source: Bloomberg, Sberbank CIB Investment Research |
|
Ownership structure
TPG Capital |
34.0% |
EBRD |
7.4% |
Directors and management |
1.1% |
Free float |
57.5% |
Lenta
Lenta IFRS financials, R mln
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
INCOME STATEMENT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenues |
252,763 |
306,352 |
365,176 |
417,698 |
452,251 |
488,178 |
523,720 |
COGS |
(196,412) |
(238,582) |
(286,941) |
(328,070) |
(355,107) |
(383,240) |
(411,152) |
Gross income |
56,352 |
67,768 |
78,235 |
89,628 |
97,143 |
104,938 |
112,568 |
Gross margin |
22.3% |
22.1% |
21.4% |
21.5% |
21.5% |
21.5% |
21.5% |
SG&A |
(36,045) |
(46,443) |
(55,918) |
(65,853) |
(72,547) |
(78,912) |
(85,095) |
EBITDA |
28,080 |
31,390 |
35,267 |
37,994 |
39,991 |
42,645 |
45,301 |
Adjusted EBITDA |
28,080 |
31,390 |
35,267 |
37,994 |
39,991 |
42,645 |
45,301 |
EBITDA margin |
11.1% |
10.2% |
9.7% |
9.1% |
8.8% |
8.7% |
8.6% |
DD&A |
(5,671) |
(7,695) |
(9,691) |
(10,491) |
(11,359) |
(12,261) |
(13,154) |
EBIT |
22,409 |
23,695 |
25,576 |
27,503 |
28,632 |
30,383 |
32,147 |
Interest income |
(9,283) |
(9,233) |
(10,497) |
(8,932) |
(9,296) |
(8,134) |
(6,101) |
Forex gain |
(189) |
91 |
92 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Revaluation gain |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Other gains |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Exceptionals |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
EBT |
12,936 |
14,553 |
15,171 |
18,571 |
19,336 |
22,249 |
26,045 |
Income tax |
(2,584) |
(3,351) |
(1,908) |
(3,993) |
(4,157) |
(4,784) |
(5,600) |
Minority interest |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Discontinued operations |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Net income |
10,352 |
11,202 |
13,263 |
14,578 |
15,179 |
17,465 |
20,445 |
Adjusted net income |
10,352 |
11,202 |
13,263 |
14,578 |
15,179 |
17,465 |
20,445 |
Net margin |
4.1% |
3.7% |
3.6% |
3.5% |
3.4% |
3.6% |
3.9% |
EPS, R |
21.27 |
23.02 |
27.26 |
29.96 |
31.19 |
35.89 |
42.02 |
Adjusted EPS, R |
21.27 |
23.02 |
27.26 |
29.96 |
31.19 |
35.89 |
42.02 |
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Assets |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash and equivalents |
22,456 |
13,038 |
14,302 |
19,871 |
32,087 |
18,579 |
16,613 |
Receivables |
15,912 |
19,706 |
13,820 |
16,708 |
17,638 |
18,551 |
19,378 |
Inventories |
22,782 |
27,491 |
36,933 |
42,036 |
45,287 |
48,641 |
52,182 |
Other current assets |
1,764 |
4,053 |
3,422 |
3,914 |
4,238 |
4,575 |
4,908 |
Total current assets |
63,352 |
64,597 |
68,485 |
82,538 |
99,259 |
90,354 |
93,089 |
Total non current assets |
115,040 |
161,573 |
178,245 |
195,889 |
199,807 |
202,759 |
204,281 |
Total assets |
178,392 |
226,170 |
246,731 |
278,427 |
299,065 |
293,113 |
297,371 |
Liabilities |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Short term borrowings |
10,873 |
35,292 |
44,906 |
19,366 |
19,366 |
14,526 |
10,896 |
Payables |
48,820 |
56,172 |
57,260 |
65,467 |
70,863 |
76,476 |
82,046 |
Other current liabilities |
1,165 |
2,020 |
2,196 |
2,010 |
2,074 |
2,083 |
2,105 |
Total current liabilities |
60,858 |
93,483 |
104,362 |
86,844 |
92,303 |
93,086 |
95,048 |
Long term borrowings |
65,149 |
66,956 |
62,194 |
96,832 |
96,832 |
72,632 |
54,482 |
Other non current liabilities |
5,230 |
7,360 |
8,387 |
8,387 |
8,387 |
8,387 |
8,387 |
Total non current liabilities |
70,403 |
74,318 |
70,581 |
105,218 |
105,218 |
81,018 |
62,868 |
Total liabilities |
131,262 |
167,801 |
174,943 |
192,062 |
197,521 |
174,104 |
157,916 |
Minority interest |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Equity |
47,130 |
58,369 |
71,787 |
86,365 |
101,544 |
119,009 |
139,455 |
Total liabilities and equity |
178,392 |
226,170 |
246,731 |
278,427 |
299,065 |
293,113 |
297,371 |
Net debt/(cash) |
53,585 |
89,210 |
92,798 |
96,327 |
84,111 |
68,579 |
48,765 |
CASH FLOW STATEMENT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net income |
10,352 |
11,202 |
13,263 |
14,578 |
15,179 |
17,465 |
20,445 |
Minority interest |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
DD&A |
5,671 |
7,695 |
9,691 |
10,491 |
11,359 |
12,261 |
13,154 |
Working capital change |
(2,377) |
(4,668) |
(1,105) |
(462) |
954 |
1,019 |
891 |
Other assets change |
334 |
1,097 |
578 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Operating cash flow |
15,924 |
19,719 |
23,744 |
24,607 |
27,492 |
30,746 |
34,490 |
Maintenance capex |
(131) |
(198) |
(252) |
(288) |
(297) |
(327) |
(357) |
Expansionary capex |
(30,862) |
(42,122) |
(26,971) |
(27,848) |
(14,979) |
(14,887) |
(14,320) |
Other investments |
(377) |
(11,937) |
(52) |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Investing cash flow |
(31,370) |
(54,257) |
(27,275) |
(28,135) |
(15,276) |
(15,214) |
(14,676) |
Change in debt |
4,153 |
25,139 |
4,795 |
9,098 |
– |
(29,040) |
(21,780) |
Dividends paid |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Share issues/(purchases) |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Other |
21,789 |
(19) |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Financing cash flow |
25,865 |
25,120 |
4,795 |
9,098 |
– |
(29,040) |
(21,780) |
Forex effects |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Net change in cash |
10,420 |
(9,418) |
1,264 |
5,569 |
12,216 |
(13,508) |
(1,966) |
RATIOS
P/E |
11.6 |
10.7 |
9.0 |
8.2 |
7.9 |
6.9 |
5.9 |
EV/EBITDA |
6.2 |
6.7 |
6.0 |
5.7 |
5.1 |
4.4 |
3.7 |
P/BV |
2.4 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
Net debt/EBITDA |
1.9 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
Total debt/EBITDA |
2.7 |
3.3 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
ROE |
32.4% |
21.2% |
20.4% |
18.4% |
16.2% |
15.8% |
15.8% |
ROIC |
14.4% |
11.4% |
12.5% |
10.7% |
10.3% |
11.6% |
12.3% |
Dividend per share, R |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Dividend yield |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
P/S |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
P/CF |
7.1 |
6.1 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
Revenue growth |
30% |
21% |
19% |
14% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
EBITDA growth |
31% |
12% |
12% |
8% |
5% |
7% |
6% |
EPS growth |
0% |
8% |
18% |
10% |
4% |
15% |
17% |
Source: Company, Sberbank CIB Investment Research
28 |
SBERBANK CIB INVESTMENT RESEARCH |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of strogaas@baltinvest.com |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of strogaas@baltinvest.com |
vk.com/id446425943
RUSSIAN RETAIL – DISRUPTED BY SPECIALISTS NOVEMBER 7, 2018
GDR |
MGNT LI |
Recommendation |
HOLD |
Last price |
$14.00 |
Target price |
(from $20.00) $17.00 |
Upside |
21% |
Free float |
67% |
|
|
Market cap |
$7,134 mln |
Enterprise value |
$8,709 mln |
ADT, 100 days |
$32.2 mln |
Prices as of November 5, 2018 |
|
Key data
|
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
Financials (IFRS), $ mln |
|
|
|
|
Revenues |
19,674 |
20,592 |
23,417 |
25,608 |
EBITDA |
1,424 |
1,467 |
1,754 |
1,899 |
EBIT |
840 |
845 |
1,073 |
1,164 |
Net income |
543 |
539 |
720 |
803 |
Adjusted EPS, $ |
1.06 |
1.06 |
1.41 |
1.58 |
Profitability |
|
|
|
|
EBITDA margin |
7% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
EBIT margin |
4% |
4% |
5% |
5% |
Net margin |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
Price ratios |
|
|
|
|
P/S |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
EV/EBITDA |
6.1 |
6.0 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
P/E |
13.1 |
13.2 |
9.9 |
8.9 |
P/CF |
6.1 |
6.1 |
5.3 |
4.9 |
Growth |
|
|
|
|
Revenues |
0% |
5% |
14% |
9% |
EBITDA |
10% |
3% |
20% |
8% |
Adjusted EPS |
11% |
1% |
33% |
12% |
|
|
|
||
Price performance, % |
|
|
||
|
1m |
3m |
6m |
YTD |
GDR |
4.5 |
16.0 |
25.9 |
48.8 |
Relative to RTS |
6.7 |
15.2 |
26.4 |
47.9 |
Price performance, $
30 |
|
28 |
|
26 |
|
24 |
|
22 |
|
20 |
|
18 |
|
16 |
|
14 |
|
12 |
|
10 |
|
Nov '17 Jan '18 Mar '18 |
May '18 Jul '18 Sep '18 |
Share price |
Relative to RTS |
Max 29.80 (Jan 8, ’18) |
Min 12.03 (Oct 26, ’18) |
Source: Bloomberg, Sberbank CIB Investment Research
Ownership structure
VTB |
17.3% |
Sergey Galitskiy |
2.7% |
Other private including employees |
1.0% |
Free float |
67.2% |
Magnit
Magnit IFRS financials, $ mln
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
INCOME STATEMENT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenues |
15,595 |
17,765 |
19,597 |
19,674 |
20,592 |
23,417 |
25,608 |
COGS |
(11,152) |
(12,877) |
(14,376) |
(14,834) |
(15,449) |
(17,540) |
(19,180) |
Gross income |
4,443 |
4,889 |
5,222 |
4,840 |
5,143 |
5,877 |
6,428 |
Gross margin |
28.5% |
27.5% |
26.6% |
24.6% |
25.0% |
25.1% |
25.1% |
SG&A |
(3,091) |
(3,605) |
(4,349) |
(4,127) |
(4,430) |
(4,955) |
(5,429) |
EBITDA |
1,696 |
1,781 |
1,575 |
1,424 |
1,467 |
1,754 |
1,899 |
Adjusted EBITDA |
1,696 |
1,781 |
1,575 |
1,424 |
1,467 |
1,754 |
1,899 |
EBITDA margin |
10.9% |
10.0% |
8.0% |
7.2% |
7.1% |
7.5% |
7.4% |
DD&A |
(337) |
(425) |
(574) |
(584) |
(622) |
(681) |
(735) |
EBIT |
1,359 |
1,357 |
1,001 |
840 |
845 |
1,073 |
1,164 |
Interest income |
(191) |
(220) |
(222) |
(153) |
(162) |
(162) |
(148) |
Forex gain |
(43) |
19 |
2 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Revaluation gain |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Other gains |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Exceptionals |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
EBT |
1,168 |
1,137 |
779 |
687 |
683 |
911 |
1,017 |
Income tax |
(199) |
(238) |
(169) |
(144) |
(143) |
(191) |
(213) |
Minority interest |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Discontinued operations |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Net income |
969 |
899 |
609 |
543 |
539 |
720 |
803 |
Adjusted net income |
969 |
899 |
609 |
543 |
539 |
720 |
803 |
Net margin |
6.2% |
5.1% |
3.1% |
2.8% |
2.6% |
3.1% |
3.1% |
EPS, $ |
2.05 |
1.90 |
1.20 |
1.06 |
1.06 |
1.41 |
1.58 |
Adjusted EPS, $ |
2.05 |
1.90 |
1.20 |
1.06 |
1.06 |
1.41 |
1.58 |
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Assets |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash and equivalents |
115 |
271 |
314 |
364 |
260 |
443 |
346 |
Receivables |
88 |
107 |
121 |
106 |
106 |
121 |
132 |
Inventories |
1,598 |
2,212 |
2,780 |
2,621 |
2,800 |
3,115 |
3,406 |
Other current assets |
4 |
11 |
30 |
30 |
32 |
36 |
39 |
Total current assets |
1,809 |
2,605 |
3,249 |
3,125 |
3,202 |
3,718 |
3,927 |
Total non current assets |
3,737 |
4,853 |
5,773 |
5,454 |
5,782 |
5,946 |
5,977 |
Total assets |
5,546 |
7,458 |
9,022 |
8,579 |
8,984 |
9,663 |
9,904 |
Liabilities |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Short term borrowings |
615 |
821 |
688 |
831 |
831 |
831 |
681 |
Payables |
1,588 |
1,751 |
1,910 |
1,875 |
2,052 |
2,330 |
2,548 |
Other current liabilities |
84 |
144 |
112 |
114 |
118 |
124 |
125 |
Total current liabilities |
2,286 |
2,717 |
2,709 |
2,821 |
3,001 |
3,285 |
3,354 |
Long term borrowings |
815 |
1,270 |
1,480 |
1,108 |
1,108 |
1,108 |
908 |
Other non current liabilities |
177 |
256 |
388 |
388 |
388 |
388 |
388 |
Total non current liabilities |
994 |
1,527 |
1,868 |
1,496 |
1,496 |
1,496 |
1,296 |
Total liabilities |
3,280 |
4,243 |
4,577 |
4,317 |
4,498 |
4,781 |
4,650 |
Minority interest |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Equity |
2,266 |
3,214 |
4,445 |
4,262 |
4,486 |
4,882 |
5,254 |
Total liabilities and equity |
5,546 |
7,458 |
9,022 |
8,579 |
8,984 |
9,663 |
9,904 |
Net debt/(cash) |
1,315 |
1,820 |
1,853 |
1,575 |
1,679 |
1,496 |
1,243 |
CASH FLOW STATEMENT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net income |
969 |
899 |
609 |
543 |
539 |
720 |
803 |
Minority interest |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
DD&A |
337 |
425 |
574 |
584 |
622 |
681 |
735 |
Working capital change |
(182) |
(300) |
(229) |
40 |
(0) |
(49) |
(87) |
Other assets change |
63 |
(7) |
6 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Operating cash flow |
1,254 |
1,042 |
1,046 |
1,166 |
1,161 |
1,351 |
1,451 |
Maintenance capex |
(52) |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
(97) |
Expansionary capex |
(850) |
(830) |
(1,267) |
(921) |
(950) |
(845) |
(669) |
Other investments |
3 |
2 |
(5) |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Investing cash flow |
(899) |
(828) |
(1,272) |
(921) |
(950) |
(845) |
(766) |
Change in debt |
125 |
393 |
(14) |
24 |
– |
– |
(350) |
Dividends paid |
(585) |
(479) |
(501) |
(220) |
(315) |
(324) |
(432) |
Share issues/(purchases) |
5 |
7 |
771 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Other |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Financing cash flow |
(455) |
(79) |
257 |
(196) |
(315) |
(324) |
(782) |
Forex effects |
(100) |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Net change in cash |
(99) |
135 |
30 |
49 |
(104) |
183 |
(97) |
RATIOS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
P/E |
6.8 |
7.4 |
11.7 |
13.1 |
13.2 |
9.9 |
8.9 |
EV/EBITDA |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.7 |
6.1 |
6.0 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
P/BV |
2.9 |
2.1 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
Net debt/EBITDA |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
Total debt/EBITDA |
0.8 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
ROE |
40.2% |
32.8% |
15.9% |
12.5% |
12.3% |
15.4% |
15.8% |
ROIC |
30.5% |
20.2% |
11.8% |
10.7% |
10.4% |
12.4% |
13.4% |
Dividend per share, $ |
1.02 |
0.92 |
0.86 |
0.65 |
0.64 |
0.28 |
0.32 |
Dividend yield |
7.3% |
6.6% |
6.1% |
4.6% |
4.5% |
2.0% |
2.3% |
P/S |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
P/CF |
5.3 |
6.4 |
6.6 |
6.1 |
6.1 |
5.3 |
4.9 |
Revenue growth |
22% |
14% |
10% |
0% |
5% |
14% |
9% |
EBITDA growth |
26% |
5% |
12% |
10% |
3% |
20% |
8% |
EPS growth |
26% |
7% |
37% |
11% |
1% |
33% |
12% |
Source: Company, Sberbank CIB Investment Research
SBERBANK CIB INVESTMENT RESEARCH |
29 |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of strogaas@baltinvest.com |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of strogaas@baltinvest.com |
vk.com/id446425943
NOVEMBER 7, 2018 RUSSIAN RETAIL – DISRUPTED BY SPECIALISTS
Magnit IFRS financials, R mln
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income statement |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenues |
947,807 |
1,074,812 |
1,143,314 |
1,235,523 |
1,359,046 |
1,545,542 |
1,690,148 |
Convenience |
701,472 |
790,147 |
846,114 |
911,270 |
1,004,680 |
1,154,125 |
1,265,799 |
Hypermarkets |
206,212 |
214,597 |
206,252 |
212,940 |
223,473 |
235,354 |
246,871 |
Drug stores |
40,124 |
64,449 |
78,739 |
90,779 |
108,307 |
130,379 |
149,389 |
COGS |
(679,799) |
(779,053) |
(838,672) |
(931,600) |
(1,019,632) |
(1,157,659) |
(1,265,888) |
Gross income |
270,821 |
295,759 |
304,643 |
303,923 |
339,414 |
387,884 |
424,261 |
Gross margin |
28.6% |
27.5% |
26.6% |
24.6% |
25.0% |
25.1% |
25.1% |
SG&A expenses |
(167,928) |
(192,390) |
(220,245) |
(222,482) |
(251,341) |
(282,051) |
(309,820) |
Staff expenses |
(98,746) |
(108,218) |
(120,056) |
(115,840) |
(131,538) |
(146,914) |
(160,513) |
Net rent |
(44,003) |
(56,442) |
(66,205) |
(73,348) |
(83,649) |
(94,645) |
(105,701) |
Depreciation and amortization |
(20,517) |
(25,688) |
(33,493) |
(36,671) |
(41,051) |
(44,948) |
(48,482) |
Other revenues/(expenses) |
3,117 |
3,253 |
7,364 |
7,958 |
8,754 |
9,955 |
10,887 |
EBITDAR |
133,572 |
146,232 |
137,219 |
139,612 |
154,093 |
180,582 |
197,690 |
EBITDAR margin |
14.1% |
13.6% |
12.0% |
11.3% |
11.3% |
11.7% |
11.7% |
EBITDA |
106,009 |
106,622 |
91,762 |
89,399 |
96,828 |
115,788 |
125,328 |
EBITDA margin |
11.2% |
9.9% |
8.0% |
7.2% |
7.1% |
7.5% |
7.4% |
Operating income |
85,492 |
80,935 |
58,269 |
52,728 |
55,777 |
70,840 |
76,846 |
Operating margin |
9.0% |
7.5% |
5.1% |
4.3% |
4.1% |
4.6% |
4.5% |
Net interest expense |
(11,660) |
(13,294) |
(12,979) |
(9,595) |
(10,715) |
(10,715) |
(9,748) |
FX gain/(loss) |
(2,633) |
1,139 |
134 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
EBT |
71,199 |
68,780 |
45,424 |
43,133 |
45,062 |
60,126 |
67,098 |
Profit tax |
(12,135) |
(14,371) |
(9,885) |
(9,058) |
(9,463) |
(12,626) |
(14,091) |
Net income |
59,064 |
54,409 |
35,539 |
34,075 |
35,599 |
47,499 |
53,007 |
Net margin |
6.2% |
5.1% |
3.1% |
2.8% |
2.6% |
3.1% |
3.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Balance sheet |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash and cash equivalents |
7,943 |
16,559 |
18,337 |
24,051 |
17,191 |
29,251 |
22,848 |
Accounts receivable and advances paid |
6,046 |
6,511 |
7,030 |
6,979 |
6,998 |
7,958 |
8,702 |
Inventory |
110,267 |
134,916 |
162,205 |
172,973 |
184,830 |
205,557 |
224,790 |
Other current assets |
537 |
903 |
1,967 |
2,233 |
2,326 |
2,612 |
2,833 |
Current assets |
124,793 |
158,890 |
189,539 |
206,237 |
211,345 |
245,378 |
259,173 |
Net fixed and intangible assets |
253,147 |
291,369 |
332,095 |
354,663 |
376,280 |
387,096 |
389,174 |
Goodwill |
1,295 |
1,367 |
1,367 |
1,547 |
1,547 |
1,547 |
1,547 |
Other non current assets |
3,424 |
3,289 |
3,324 |
3,760 |
3,760 |
3,760 |
3,760 |
Non current assets |
257,865 |
296,026 |
336,786 |
359,970 |
381,587 |
392,403 |
394,481 |
Total assets |
382,659 |
454,915 |
526,325 |
566,207 |
592,931 |
637,781 |
653,654 |
Accounts payable and advances received |
109,542 |
106,796 |
111,408 |
123,752 |
135,447 |
153,782 |
168,159 |
Short term debt |
42,430 |
50,106 |
40,122 |
54,863 |
54,863 |
54,863 |
44,963 |
Other current liabilities |
5,789 |
8,811 |
6,528 |
7,539 |
7,786 |
8,161 |
8,249 |
Current liabilities |
157,760 |
165,713 |
158,057 |
186,154 |
198,095 |
216,806 |
221,370 |
Long term debt |
56,246 |
77,500 |
86,338 |
73,150 |
73,150 |
73,150 |
59,950 |
Deferred tax liability |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Other long term liabilities |
12,306 |
15,626 |
22,622 |
25,593 |
25,593 |
25,593 |
25,593 |
Non current liabilities |
68,552 |
93,126 |
108,960 |
98,743 |
98,743 |
98,743 |
85,543 |
Minority interest |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Equity |
156,343 |
196,077 |
259,307 |
281,310 |
296,093 |
322,233 |
346,741 |
Total liabilities and equity |
382,656 |
454,915 |
526,325 |
566,207 |
592,931 |
637,781 |
653,654 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash flow |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OPERATING ACTIVITIES |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBT |
71,199 |
68,780 |
45,424 |
43,133 |
45,062 |
60,126 |
67,098 |
Non cash charges |
20,517 |
25,688 |
33,493 |
36,671 |
41,051 |
44,948 |
48,482 |
Net interest expense |
11,660 |
13,294 |
12,979 |
9,595 |
10,715 |
10,715 |
9,748 |
Other items |
3,860 |
(433) |
366 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
OCF before changes in working capital |
107,237 |
107,328 |
92,262 |
89,399 |
96,828 |
115,788 |
125,328 |
(Increase)/decrease in short term assets |
(8,323) |
(18,674) |
(27,683) |
4,528 |
(11,968) |
(21,973) |
(20,199) |
Increase/(decrease) in short term liabilities |
(2,766) |
549 |
13,753 |
(2,025) |
11,941 |
18,710 |
14,465 |
OCF before taxes and interest paid |
96,148 |
89,202 |
78,876 |
91,902 |
96,800 |
112,526 |
119,594 |
Income taxes paid |
(8,962) |
(12,567) |
(4,876) |
(9,058) |
(9,463) |
(12,626) |
(14,091) |
Interest paid |
(10,743) |
(13,594) |
(12,992) |
(9,595) |
(10,715) |
(10,715) |
(9,748) |
Net cash from operating activities |
76,443 |
63,042 |
61,008 |
73,249 |
76,623 |
89,185 |
95,755 |
INVESTING ACTIVITIES |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Capex |
(54,967) |
(50,243) |
(73,892) |
(57,861) |
(62,668) |
(55,764) |
(50,560) |
Other items |
189 |
122 |
(303) |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Net cash from investing activities |
(54,778) |
(50,122) |
(74,195) |
(57,861) |
(62,668) |
(55,764) |
(50,560) |
FINANCING ACTIVITIES |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net borrowing |
7,647 |
23,778 |
(790) |
1,477 |
– |
– |
(23,100) |
Dividends paid |
(35,651) |
(28,976) |
(29,233) |
(13,809) |
(20,816) |
(21,360) |
(28,500) |
Other items |
277 |
446 |
44,987 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Net cash from financing activities |
(27,727) |
(4,752) |
14,965 |
(12,332) |
(20,816) |
(21,360) |
(51,600) |
Source: Company, Sberbank CIB Investment Research
30 |
SBERBANK CIB INVESTMENT RESEARCH |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of strogaas@baltinvest.com |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of strogaas@baltinvest.com |
vk.com/id446425943
RUSSIAN RETAIL – DISRUPTED BY SPECIALISTS NOVEMBER 7, 2018
GDR |
OKEY LI |
Recommendation |
SELL |
Last price |
$1.59 |
Target price |
(from $2.10) $1.50 |
Upside |
6% |
Free float |
21% |
|
|
Market cap |
$427 mln |
Enterprise value |
$797 mln |
ADT, 100 days |
< $0.1 mln |
Prices as of November 5, 2018 |
|
Key data
|
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
Financials (IFRS), $ mln |
|
|
|
|
Revenues |
2,574 |
2,556 |
2,689 |
2,855 |
EBITDA |
138 |
140 |
154 |
166 |
EBIT |
71 |
73 |
87 |
99 |
Net income |
15 |
20 |
32 |
43 |
Adjusted EPS, $ |
0.06 |
0.07 |
0.12 |
0.16 |
Profitability |
|
|
|
|
EBITDA margin |
5% |
5% |
6% |
6% |
EBIT margin |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
Net margin |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
Price ratios |
|
|
|
|
P/S |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
EV/EBITDA |
5.8 |
5.6 |
5.0 |
4.6 |
P/E |
28.8 |
21.2 |
13.4 |
9.9 |
P/CF |
10.6 |
5.0 |
4.4 |
3.8 |
Growth |
|
|
|
|
Revenues |
15% |
1% |
5% |
6% |
EBITDA |
14% |
1% |
10% |
8% |
Adjusted EPS |
73% |
36% |
58% |
36% |
Price performance, %
|
1m |
3m |
6m |
YTD |
GDR |
6.7 |
18.5 |
31.5 |
36.4 |
Relative to RTS |
9.0 |
17.7 |
31.9 |
35.3 |
Price performance, $
2.8 |
|
2.6 |
|
2.4 |
|
2.2 |
|
2.0 |
|
1.8 |
|
1.6 |
|
1.4 |
|
1.2 |
|
Nov '17 Jan '18 Mar '18 |
May '18 Jul '18 Sep '18 |
Share price |
Relative to RTS |
Max 2.73 (Dec 13, ’17) |
Min 1.41 (Sep 27, ’18) |
Source: Bloomberg, Sberbank CIB Investment Research |
|
Ownership structure
NISEMAX Co Ltd |
51.0% |
GSU Ltd |
25.0% |
BYTENEM Co Ltd |
3.0% |
Free float |
21.0% |
O’Key
O’Key IFRS financials, $ mln
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
INCOME STATEMENT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenues |
2,647 |
2,627 |
3,041 |
2,574 |
2,556 |
2,689 |
2,855 |
COGS |
(2,023) |
(2,025) |
(2,348) |
(1,976) |
(1,960) |
(2,060) |
(2,185) |
Gross income |
624 |
602 |
693 |
598 |
596 |
629 |
670 |
Gross margin |
23.6% |
22.9% |
22.8% |
23.2% |
23.3% |
23.4% |
23.5% |
SG&A |
(527) |
(535) |
(620) |
(533) |
(523) |
(542) |
(571) |
EBITDA |
165 |
139 |
160 |
138 |
140 |
154 |
166 |
Adjusted EBITDA |
165 |
139 |
160 |
138 |
140 |
154 |
166 |
EBITDA margin |
6.2% |
5.3% |
5.3% |
5.4% |
5.5% |
5.7% |
5.8% |
DD&A |
(63) |
(68) |
(79) |
(67) |
(66) |
(67) |
(67) |
EBIT |
95 |
51 |
130 |
71 |
73 |
87 |
99 |
Interest income |
(54) |
(49) |
(59) |
(51) |
(47) |
(44) |
(41) |
Forex gain |
(10) |
2 |
(6) |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Revaluation gain |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Other gains |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Exceptionals |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
EBT |
31 |
4 |
65 |
20 |
27 |
43 |
58 |
Income tax |
0 |
(6) |
(11) |
(5) |
(7) |
(11) |
(14) |
Minority interest |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Discontinued operations |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Net income |
31 |
(2) |
54 |
15 |
20 |
32 |
43 |
Adjusted net income |
31 |
(2) |
54 |
15 |
20 |
32 |
43 |
Net margin |
1.2% |
(0.1%) |
1.8% |
0.6% |
0.8% |
1.2% |
1.5% |
EPS, $ |
0.1164 |
(0.0077) |
0.2017 |
0.0552 |
0.0750 |
0.1185 |
0.1610 |
Adjusted EPS, $ |
0.1164 |
(0.0077) |
0.2017 |
0.0552 |
0.0750 |
0.1185 |
0.1610 |
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Assets |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash and equivalents |
142 |
186 |
135 |
134 |
167 |
112 |
124 |
Receivables |
123 |
111 |
201 |
95 |
100 |
105 |
111 |
Inventories |
183 |
223 |
235 |
171 |
179 |
188 |
200 |
Other current assets |
– |
1 |
2 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Total current assets |
447 |
521 |
572 |
401 |
445 |
405 |
435 |
Total non current assets |
858 |
992 |
1,015 |
898 |
906 |
916 |
938 |
Total assets |
1,305 |
1,513 |
1,588 |
1,299 |
1,351 |
1,321 |
1,373 |
Liabilities |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Short term borrowings |
174 |
75 |
202 |
126 |
151 |
131 |
131 |
Payables |
418 |
528 |
501 |
390 |
401 |
415 |
434 |
Other current liabilities |
4 |
13 |
17 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
16 |
Total current liabilities |
596 |
616 |
721 |
532 |
568 |
562 |
581 |
Long term borrowings |
341 |
515 |
428 |
378 |
378 |
328 |
328 |
Other non current liabilities |
12 |
11 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
Total non current liabilities |
355 |
528 |
446 |
396 |
396 |
346 |
346 |
Total liabilities |
951 |
1,145 |
1,167 |
927 |
964 |
908 |
927 |
Minority interest |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Equity |
355 |
368 |
421 |
371 |
387 |
413 |
447 |
Total liabilities and equity |
1,305 |
1,513 |
1,588 |
1,299 |
1,351 |
1,321 |
1,373 |
Net debt/(cash) |
374 |
404 |
496 |
370 |
363 |
347 |
335 |
CASH FLOW STATEMENT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net income |
31 |
(2) |
54 |
15 |
20 |
32 |
43 |
Minority interest |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
DD&A |
63 |
68 |
79 |
67 |
66 |
67 |
67 |
Working capital change |
(15) |
77 |
(141) |
(41) |
(0) |
(0) |
1 |
Other assets change |
57 |
6 |
– |
– |
1 |
2 |
2 |
Operating cash flow |
149 |
175 |
84 |
41 |
86 |
98 |
112 |
Maintenance capex |
(42) |
(42) |
(45) |
(32) |
(33) |
(34) |
(35) |
Expansionary capex |
(99) |
(52) |
(15) |
(46) |
(41) |
(43) |
(55) |
Other investments |
102 |
14 |
3 |
110 |
– |
– |
– |
Investing cash flow |
(38) |
(81) |
(58) |
32 |
(74) |
(77) |
(90) |
Change in debt |
50 |
15 |
0 |
(46) |
25 |
(70) |
– |
Dividends paid |
(27) |
(22) |
(25) |
(30) |
(4) |
(6) |
(10) |
Share issues/(purchases) |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Other |
(71) |
(61) |
(64) |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Financing cash flow |
(47) |
(68) |
(89) |
(76) |
21 |
(76) |
(10) |
Forex effects |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Net change in cash |
167 |
167 |
123 |
131 |
167 |
112 |
124 |
RATIOS
P/E |
13.7 |
n/m |
7.9 |
28.8 |
21.2 |
13.4 |
9.9 |
EV/EBITDA |
4.9 |
6.0 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.6 |
5.0 |
4.6 |
P/BV |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Net debt/EBITDA |
2.3 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
Total debt/EBITDA |
3.1 |
4.3 |
3.9 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
ROE |
8.0% |
neg |
13.8% |
3.8% |
5.3% |
8.0% |
10.1% |
ROIC |
9.9% |
neg |
9.8% |
6.1% |
6.0% |
7.5% |
8.2% |
Dividend per share, $ |
0.0998 |
0.0855 |
0.0934 |
0.1112 |
0.0166 |
0.0225 |
0.0356 |
Dividend yield |
6.3% |
5.4% |
5.9% |
7.0% |
1.0% |
1.4% |
2.2% |
P/S |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
P/CF |
2.9 |
2.4 |
5.1 |
10.6 |
5.0 |
4.4 |
3.8 |
Revenue growth |
33% |
1% |
16% |
15% |
1% |
5% |
6% |
EBITDA growth |
43% |
16% |
15% |
14% |
1% |
10% |
8% |
EPS growth |
77% |
– |
– |
73% |
36% |
58% |
36% |
Source: Company, Sberbank CIB Investment Research
SBERBANK CIB INVESTMENT RESEARCH |
31 |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of strogaas@baltinvest.com |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of strogaas@baltinvest.com |
vk.com/id446425943
NOVEMBER 7, 2018 RUSSIAN RETAIL – DISRUPTED BY SPECIALISTS
O’Key IFRS financials, R mln
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income statement |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenues |
162,542 |
175,470 |
177,454 |
161,675 |
168,727 |
177,487 |
188,420 |
Hypermarkets |
144,678 |
154,140 |
151,673 |
144,918 |
147,732 |
152,221 |
158,844 |
Supermarkets |
15,142 |
12,673 |
12,382 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Discounters |
750 |
5,666 |
10,282 |
14,003 |
18,188 |
22,373 |
26,557 |
Growth, y o y |
7.0% |
8.0% |
1.1% |
8.9% |
4.4% |
5.2% |
6.2% |
Hypermarkets |
7.4% |
6.5% |
1.6% |
4.5% |
1.9% |
3.0% |
4.4% |
Supermarkets |
1.5% |
16.3% |
2.3% |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Discounters |
|
|
81.5% |
36.2% |
29.9% |
23.0% |
18.7% |
COGS |
(124,240) |
(135,260) |
(137,010) |
(124,118) |
(129,381) |
(135,942) |
(144,190) |
Gross income |
38,302 |
40,209 |
40,444 |
37,557 |
39,346 |
41,545 |
44,230 |
Gross margin |
23.6% |
22.9% |
22.8% |
23.2% |
23.3% |
23.4% |
23.5% |
SG&A expenses |
(28,533) |
(31,214) |
(31,576) |
(29,282) |
(30,114) |
(31,400) |
(33,242) |
Staff expenses |
(14,989) |
(16,185) |
(15,619) |
(15,325) |
(15,787) |
(16,497) |
(17,312) |
Net rent |
(4,728) |
(5,344) |
(5,758) |
(5,288) |
(5,584) |
(6,060) |
(6,543) |
Depreciation and amortization |
(3,838) |
(4,550) |
(4,613) |
(4,203) |
(4,386) |
(4,401) |
(4,446) |
Other revenues/(expenses) |
(148) |
(1,051) |
3,335 |
381 |
|
|
|
EBITDA |
10,109 |
9,253 |
9,335 |
8,655 |
9,231 |
10,145 |
10,988 |
EBITDA margin |
6.2% |
5.3% |
5.3% |
5.4% |
5.5% |
5.7% |
5.8% |
Operating income (EBIT) |
5,848 |
3,394 |
7,590 |
4,453 |
4,845 |
5,744 |
6,542 |
Operating margin |
3.6% |
1.9% |
4.3% |
2.8% |
2.9% |
3.2% |
3.5% |
Net interest expense |
(3,332) |
(3,269) |
(3,419) |
(3,208) |
(3,070) |
(2,937) |
(2,729) |
FX gain/(loss) |
(615) |
146 |
(376) |
– |
– |
– |
– |
EBT |
1,901 |
272 |
3,795 |
1,245 |
1,775 |
2,807 |
3,813 |
Profit tax |
16 |
(409) |
(628) |
(311) |
(444) |
(702) |
(953) |
Net income |
1,918 |
(138) |
3,167 |
933 |
1,331 |
2,105 |
2,860 |
Net margin |
1.2% |
0.1% |
1.8% |
0.6% |
0.8% |
1.2% |
1.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Balance sheet |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash and cash equivalents |
9,768 |
11,463 |
7,750 |
8,841 |
11,007 |
7,407 |
8,188 |
Accounts receivable and advances paid |
8,453 |
6,829 |
11,556 |
6,293 |
6,567 |
6,908 |
7,334 |
Inventory |
12,628 |
13,707 |
13,524 |
11,317 |
11,811 |
12,424 |
13,189 |
Other current assets |
|
41 |
140 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Current assets |
30,850 |
32,041 |
32,971 |
26,451 |
29,385 |
26,739 |
28,711 |
Net fixed and intangible assets |
49,783 |
51,728 |
48,277 |
48,754 |
49,262 |
49,924 |
51,429 |
Other non current assets |
9,447 |
9,324 |
10,209 |
10,506 |
10,506 |
10,506 |
10,506 |
Non current assets |
59,230 |
61,052 |
58,486 |
59,260 |
59,768 |
60,430 |
61,935 |
Total assets |
90,079 |
93,093 |
91,457 |
85,711 |
89,152 |
87,169 |
90,646 |
Accounts payable and advances received |
28,817 |
32,481 |
28,855 |
25,767 |
26,472 |
27,406 |
28,637 |
Short term debt |
12,000 |
4,622 |
11,662 |
8,320 |
9,983 |
8,663 |
8,663 |
Other current liabilities |
287 |
830 |
999 |
993 |
1,027 |
1,022 |
1,039 |
Current liabilities |
41,104 |
37,933 |
41,516 |
35,080 |
37,483 |
37,092 |
38,339 |
Long term debt |
23,558 |
31,673 |
24,679 |
24,959 |
24,959 |
21,659 |
21,659 |
Deferred tax liability |
827 |
692 |
889 |
1,019 |
1,019 |
1,019 |
1,019 |
Other long term liabilities |
99 |
139 |
122 |
141 |
142 |
144 |
145 |
Non current liabilities |
24,484 |
32,504 |
25,690 |
26,118 |
26,120 |
22,821 |
22,823 |
Equity |
24,491 |
22,655 |
24,251 |
24,513 |
25,550 |
27,256 |
29,484 |
Total liabilities and equity |
90,079 |
93,093 |
91,457 |
85,711 |
89,152 |
87,169 |
90,646 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash flow |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OPERATING ACTIVITIES |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBT |
1,901 |
272 |
3,795 |
1,245 |
1,775 |
2,807 |
3,813 |
Depreciation |
3,838 |
4,550 |
4,613 |
4,203 |
4,386 |
4,401 |
4,446 |
Net interest expense |
3,332 |
3,269 |
3,419 |
3,208 |
3,070 |
2,937 |
2,729 |
Other items |
3,474 |
423 |
(319) |
– |
– |
– |
– |
OCF before changes in working capital |
12,545 |
8,513 |
11,509 |
8,655 |
9,231 |
10,145 |
10,988 |
(Increase)/decrease in short term assets |
(656) |
547 |
(4,706) |
351 |
(768) |
(954) |
(1,191) |
Increase/(decrease) in short term liabilities |
(252) |
4,567 |
(3,502) |
(2,944) |
739 |
929 |
1,248 |
OCF before taxes and interest paid |
11,637 |
13,627 |
3,300 |
6,063 |
9,202 |
10,120 |
11,045 |
Income taxes paid |
16 |
(409) |
(628) |
(311) |
(444) |
(702) |
(953) |
Interest paid |
(3,332) |
(3,269) |
(3,419) |
(3,208) |
(3,070) |
(2,937) |
(2,729) |
Net cash from operating activities |
9,140 |
11,673 |
4,874 |
2,544 |
5,689 |
6,481 |
7,363 |
INVESTING ACTIVITIES |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Capex |
(8,621) |
(6,331) |
(3,552) |
(4,886) |
(4,894) |
(5,063) |
(5,952) |
Other items |
6,289 |
918 |
– |
6,910 |
– |
– |
– |
Net cash from investing activities |
(2,332) |
(5,413) |
(3,365) |
2,024 |
(4,894) |
(5,063) |
(5,952) |
FINANCING ACTIVITIES |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net borrowing |
3,091 |
1,018 |
22 |
(2,914) |
1,664 |
(4,620) |
|
Dividends paid |
(1,644) |
(1,472) |
(1,466) |
(1,879) |
(294) |
(399) |
(632) |
Other items |
(4,332) |
(4,075) |
(3,744) |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Net cash from financing activities |
(2,884) |
(4,529) |
(5,187) |
(4,793) |
1,370 |
(5,019) |
(632) |
Source: Company, Sberbank CIB Investment Research
32 |
SBERBANK CIB INVESTMENT RESEARCH |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of strogaas@baltinvest.com |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of strogaas@baltinvest.com |