SECTION B

I

1. Read the article and look up the underlined words and phrases in the dictionary.

Global Trends 2015:

A dialogue about the future with non-government experts

The international system in 2015 will be shaped by some trends: population; natural resources and the environment; science and technology; the global economy and globalization; national and international governance; the nature of conflict; and the role of the United States. These trends will influence the capacities, priorities, and behavior of states and societies and thus substantially define the international security environment.

Population trends

The world in 2015 will be populated by some 7.2 billion people, up from 6.1 billion in the year 2000. The rate of world population growth, however, will have diminishedfrom 1. 7 per cent annually in 1985, to 1.3 per cent today, to approximately 1 per cent in 2015.

Increased life expectancy will contribute to a shift towards an aging population in highincome developed countries. Beyond that, demographic trends will sharply diverge. More than 95 per cent of the increase in world population will be found in developing countries, nearly all in fast expanding urban areas.

•India's population will grow from 900 million to more than 1.2 billion by 2015; Pakistan's probably will go up from 140 million now to about 195 million.

•Some countries in Africa with high rates of AIDS will experience reduced

population growth or even declining populations despite relatively high birthrates. In South Africa, for example, the population is projected to drop from 43.4 million in 2000 to 38.7 million in 2015.

Russia and many post-Communist countries of Eastern Europe will have declining populations. As a result of high mortality and low birthrates, Russia's population may drop from its current 146.5 million to as low as 130 to 135 million in 2015, while the neighboring states of Central Asia will experience continued population growth. In Japan and West European countries such as Italy and Spain, populations also will decline in the absence of sharp increases in birthrates or immigration.

•North America, Australia, and New Zealand — the traditional magnets for migrants — will continue to have the highest rates of population growth among the developed countries, with annual population growth rates between 0.7 per cent and 1.0 per cent.

Divergent aging patterns

In developed countries and many of the more advanced developing countries, the declining ratio of working people to retirees will strain social services, pensions, and health systems. Governments will seek to make the problem milder through such measures as delaying retirement, encouraging greater participation in the work force by women, and relying on migrant workers. The shift towards a greater proportion of older voters will change the political dynamics in these countries in ways difficult to foresee.

At the same time, a high proportion of young people trend will persist in some developing countries, in Sub-Saharan Africa and a few countries in Latin America and the Middle East. This factor will be destabilizing, particularly when combined with high unemployment or communal tension.