Mankiw Principles of Macroeconomics (3rd ed)

518	PART NINE FINAL THOUGHTS

and spent on consumption goods. In essence, a consumption tax puts all saving automatically into a tax-advantaged savings account, much like an IRA. A switch from income to consumption taxation would greatly increase the incentive to save.

CON: THE TAX LAWS SHOULD

NOT BE REFORMED TO ENCOURAGE SAVING

Increasing saving may be desirable, but it is not the only goal of tax policy. Policymakers also must be sure to distribute the tax burden fairly. The problem with proposals to increase the incentive to save is that they increase the tax burden on those who can least afford it.

It is an undeniable fact that high-income households save a greater fraction of their income than low-income households. As a result, any tax change that favors people who save will also tend to favor people with high income. Policies such as tax-advantaged retirement accounts may seem appealing, but they lead to a less egalitarian society. By reducing the tax burden on the wealthy who can take advantage of these accounts, they force the government to raise the tax burden on the poor.

Moreover, tax policies designed to encourage saving may not be effective at achieving that goal. Many studies have found that saving is relatively inelastic— that is, the amount of saving is not very sensitive to the rate of return on saving. If this is indeed the case, then tax provisions that raise the effective return by reducing the taxation of capital income will further enrich the wealthy without inducing them to save more than they otherwise would.

Economic theory does not give a clear prediction about whether a higher rate of return would increase saving. The outcome depends on the relative size of two conflicting effects, called the substitution effect and the income effect. On the one hand, a higher rate of return raises the benefit of saving: Each dollar saved today produces more consumption in the future. This substitution effect tends to raise saving. On the other hand, a higher rate of return lowers the need for saving: A household has to save less to achieve any target level of consumption in the future. This income effect tends to reduce saving. If the substitution and income effects approximately cancel each other, as some studies suggest, then saving will not change when lower taxation of capital income raises the rate of return.

There are other ways to raise national saving than by giving tax breaks to the rich. National saving is the sum of private and public saving. Instead of trying to alter the tax code to encourage greater private saving, policymakers can simply raise public saving by increasing the budget surplus, perhaps by raising taxes on the wealthy. This offers a direct way of raising national saving and increasing prosperity for future generations.

Indeed, once public saving is taken into account, tax provisions to encourage saving might backfire. Tax changes that reduce the taxation of capital income reduce government revenue and, thereby, lead to a budget deficit. To increase national saving, such a change in the tax code must stimulate private saving by more than it reduces public saving. If this is not the case, so-called saving incentives can potentially make matters worse.

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QUICK QUIZ: Give three examples of how our society discourages saving.

What are the drawbacks of eliminating these disincentives?

CONCLUSION

This chapter has considered five debates over macroeconomic policy. For each, it began with a controversial proposition and then offered the arguments pro and con. If you find it hard to choose a side in these debates, you may find some comfort in the fact that you are not alone. The study of economics does not always make it easy to choose among alternative policies. Indeed, by clarifying the inevitable tradeoffs that policymakers face, it can make the choice more difficult.

Difficult choices, however, have no right to seem easy. When you hear politicians or commentators proposing something that sounds too good to be true, it probably is. If they sound like they are offering you a free lunch, you should look for the hidden price tag. Few if any policies come with benefits but no costs. By helping you see through the fog of rhetoric so common in political discourse, the study of economics should make you a better participant in our national debates.

Summar y

Advocates of active monetary and fiscal policy view the economy as inherently unstable and believe that policy can manage aggregate demand to offset the inherent instability. Critics of active monetary and fiscal policy emphasize that policy affects the economy with a lag and that our ability to forecast future economic conditions is poor. As a result, attempts to stabilize the economy can end up being destabilizing.

Advocates of rules for monetary policy argue that discretionary policy can suffer from incompetence, abuse of power, and time inconsistency. Critics of rules for monetary policy argue that discretionary policy is more flexible in responding to changing economic circumstances.

Advocates of a zero-inflation target emphasize that inflation has many costs and few if any benefits. Moreover, the cost of eliminating inflation—depressed output and employment—is only temporary. Even this cost can be reduced if the central bank announces a credible plan to reduce inflation, thereby directly lowering expectations of inflation. Critics of a zeroinflation target claim that moderate inflation imposes only small costs on society, whereas the recession necessary to reduce inflation is quite costly.

Advocates of reducing the government debt argue that the debt imposes a burden on future generations by raising their taxes and lowering their incomes. Critics of reducing the government debt argue that the debt is only one small piece of fiscal policy. Single-minded concern about the debt can obscure the many ways in which the government’s tax and spending decisions affect different generations.

Advocates of tax incentives for saving point out that our society discourages saving in many ways, such as by heavily taxing the income from capital and by reducing benefits for those who have accumulated wealth. They endorse reforming the tax laws to encourage saving, perhaps by switching from an income tax to a consumption tax. Critics of tax incentives for saving argue that many proposed changes to stimulate saving would primarily benefit the wealthy, who do not need a tax break. They also argue that such changes might have only a small effect on private saving. Raising public saving by increasing the government’s budget surplus would provide a more direct and equitable way to increase national saving.

520	PART NINE FINAL THOUGHTS

1.What causes the lags in the effect policy on aggregate demand?

of these lags for the debate over policy?

2.What might motivate a central political business cycle? What cycle imply for the debate over

3.Explain how credibility might inflation.

4.Why are some economists against inflation?

5.Explain two ways in which a hurts a future worker.

Questions for Review

in which most economists view justifiable?

how the government might hurt even while reducing the

they inherit.

that the government can continue deficit forever. How is that possible?

capital is taxed twice. Explain.

other than tax policy, of how our saving.

might be caused by tax incentives

Problems and Applications

1.The chapter suggests that the economy, like the human body, has “natural restorative powers.”

a.Illustrate the short-run effect of a fall in aggregate demand using an aggregate-demand/aggregate- supply diagram. What happens to total output, income, and employment?

b.If the government does not use stabilization policy, what happens to the economy over time? Illustrate on your diagram. Does this adjustment generally occur in a matter of months or a matter of years?

c.Do you think the “natural restorative powers” of the economy mean that policymakers should be passive in response to the business cycle?

2.Policymakers who want to stabilize the economy must decide how much to change the money supply, government spending, or taxes. Why is it difficult for policymakers to choose the appropriate strength of their actions?

3.Suppose that people suddenly wanted to hold more money balances.

a.What would be the effect of this change on the economy if the Federal Reserve followed a rule of increasing the money supply by 3 percent per year? Illustrate your answer with a money-market diagram and an aggregate-demand/aggregate- supply diagram.

b.What would be the effect of this change on the economy if the Fed followed a rule of increasing

the money supply by 3 percent per year plus 1 percentage point for every percentage point

that unemployment rises above its normal level? Illustrate your answer.

c.Which of the foregoing rules better stabilizes the economy? Would it help to allow the Fed to respond to predicted unemployment instead of current unemployment? Explain.

4.Some economists have proposed that the Fed use the following rule for choosing its target for the federal funds interest rate (r):

r 2% π 1/2 (y y*)/y* 1/2 (π π*),

where π is the average of the inflation rate over the past year, y is real GDP as recently measured, y* is an estimate of the natural rate of output, and π* is the Fed’s goal for inflation.

a.Explain the logic that might lie behind this rule for setting interest rates. Would you support the Fed’s use of this rule?

b.Some economists advocate such a rule for monetary policy but believe π and y should be the forecasts of

future values of inflation and output. What are the advantages of using forecasts instead of actual values? What are the disadvantages?

5.The problem of time inconsistency applies to fiscal policy as well as to monetary policy. Suppose the

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521

government announced a reduction in taxes on income from capital investments, like new factories.

a.If investors believed that capital taxes would remain low, how would the government’s action affect the level of investment?

b.After investors have responded to the announced tax reduction, does the government have an incentive to renege on its policy? Explain.

c.Given your answer to part (b), would investors believe the government’s announcement? What can the government do to increase the credibility of announced policy changes?

d.Explain why this situation is similar to the time inconsistency problem faced by monetary policymakers.

6.Chapter 2 explains the difference between positive analysis and normative analysis. In the debate about whether the central bank should aim for zero inflation, which areas of disagreement involve positive statements and which involve normative judgments?

7.Why are the benefits of reducing inflation permanent and the costs temporary? Why are the costs of increasing inflation permanent and the benefits temporary? Use Phillips-curve diagrams in your answer.

8.Suppose the federal government cuts taxes and increases spending, raising the budget deficit to

12 percent of GDP. If nominal GDP is rising 7 percent per year, are such budget deficits sustainable forever? Explain. If budget deficits of this size are maintained for 20 years, what is likely to happen to your taxes and your

children’s taxes in the future? Can you do something today to offset this future effect?

9.Explain how each of the following policies redistributes income across generations. Is the redistribution from young to old, or from old to young?

a.an increase in the budget deficit

b.more generous subsidies for education loans

c.greater investments in highways and bridges

d.indexation of Social Security benefits to inflation

10.Surveys suggest that most people are opposed to budget deficits, but these same people elected representatives who in the 1980s and 1990s passed budgets with significant deficits. Why might the opposition to budget deficits be stronger in principle than in practice?

11.The chapter says that budget deficits reduce the income of future generations, but can boost output and income during a recession. Explain how both of these statements can be true.

12.What is the fundamental tradeoff that society faces if it chooses to save more?

13.Suppose the government reduced the tax rate on income from savings.

a.Who would benefit from this tax reduction most directly?

b.What would happen to the capital stock over time? What would happen to the capital available to each worker? What would happen to productivity?

What would happen to wages?

c.In light of your answer to part (b), who might benefit from this tax reduction in the long run?

GLOSSARY

absolute advantage—the comparison among producers of a good according to their productivity

aggregate-demand curve—a curve that shows the quantity of goods and services that households, firms, and the government want to buy at each price level

aggregate-supply curve—a curve that shows the quantity of goods and services that firms choose to produce and sell at each price level appreciation—an increase in the value of a currency as measured by the amount of foreign currency it can

buy

automatic stabilizers—changes in fiscal policy that stimulate aggregate demand when the economy goes into a recession without policymakers having to take any deliberate action

balanced trade—a situation in which exports equal imports

bond—a certificate of indebtedness budget deficit—a shortfall of tax revenue from government spending budget surplus—an excess of government receipts over government

spending

capital flight—a large and sudden reduction in the demand for assets located in a country

catch-up effect—the property whereby countries that start off poor tend to grow more rapidly than countries that start off rich

central bank—an institution designed to oversee the banking system and regulate the quantity of money in the economy

ceteris paribus—a Latin phrase, translated as “other things being equal,” used as a reminder that all variables other than the ones being studied are assumed to be constant

circular-flow diagram—a visual model of the economy that shows how dollars flow through markets among households and firms

classical dichotomy—the theoretical separation of nominal and real variables

closed economy—an economy that does not interact with other economies in the world

collective bargaining—the process by which unions and firms agree on the terms of employment

commodity money—money that takes the form of a commodity with intrinsic value

comparative advantage—the comparison among producers of a good according to their opportunity

cost

competitive market—a market with many buyers and sellers trading identical products so that each buyer and seller is a price taker complements—two goods for which

an increase in the price of one leads to a decrease in the demand for the other

consumer price index (CPI)—a measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer

consumer surplus—a buyer’s willingness to pay minus the amount the buyer actually pays

consumption—spending by households on goods and services, with the exception of purchases of new housing

cost—the value of everything a seller must give up to produce a good cross-price elasticity of demand—a

measure of how much the quantity demanded of one good responds to a change in the price of another good, computed as the percentage change in quantity demanded of the first good divided by the percentage change in the price

crowding out—a decrease in investment that results from government borrowing

crowding-out effect—the offset in aggregate demand that results when expansionary fiscal policy raises the interest rate and thereby reduces investment spending

currency—the paper bills and coins in the hands of the public

cyclical unemployment—the deviation of unemployment from its natural rate

deadweight loss—the fall in total surplus that results from a market distortion, such as a tax

demand curve—a graph of the relationship between the price of a good and the quantity demanded

demand deposits—balances in bank accounts that depositors can access on demand by writing a check

demand schedule—a table that shows the relationship between the price of a good and the quantity demanded

depreciation—a decrease in the value of a currency as measured by the amount of foreign currency it can buy

depression—a severe recession diminishing returns—the property

whereby the benefit from an extra unit of an input declines as the quantity of the input increases

discount rate—the interest rate on the loans that the Fed makes to banks

discouraged workers—individuals who would like to work but have given up looking for a job

economics—the study of how society manages its scarce resources

efficiency—the property of society getting the most it can from its scarce resources

efficiency wages—above-equilibrium wages paid by firms in order to increase worker productivity

elasticity—a measure of the responsiveness of quantity demanded or quantity supplied to one of its determinants

equilibrium—a situation in which supply and demand have been brought into balance

equilibrium price—the price that balances supply and demand

equilibrium quantity—the quantity supplied and the quantity demanded when the price has adjusted to balance supply and demand

equity—the property of distributing economic prosperity fairly among the members of society

exports—goods and services that are produced domestically and sold abroad

externality—the impact of one person’s actions on the well-being of a bystander

Federal Reserve (Fed)—the central bank of the United States

fiat money—money without intrinsic value that is used as money because of government decree

523

524 GLOSSARY

financial intermediaries—financial institutions through which savers can indirectly provide funds to borrowers

financial markets—financial institutions through which savers can directly provide funds to borrowers

financial system—the group of institutions in the economy that help to match one person’s saving with another person’s investment

Fisher effect—the one-for-one adjustment of the nominal interest rate to the inflation rate

fractional-reserve banking—a banking system in which banks hold only a fraction of deposits as reserves

frictional unemployment—unemploy- ment that results because it takes time for workers to search for the jobs that best suit their tastes and skills

GDP deflator—a measure of the price level calculated as the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP times 100

government purchases—spending on goods and services by local, state, and federal governments

gross domestic product (GDP)—the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time

human capital—the accumulation of investments in people, such as education and on-the-job training

import quota—a limit on the quantity of a good that can be produced abroad and sold domestically

imports—goods and services that are produced abroad and sold domestically

income elasticity of demand—a measure of how much the quantity demanded of a good responds to a change in consumers’ income, computed as the percentage change in quantity demanded divided by the percentage change in income

indexation—the automatic correction of a dollar amount for the effects of inflation by law or contract

inferior good—a good for which, other things equal, an increase in income leads to a decrease in demand

inflation—an increase in the overall level of prices in the economy inflation rate—the percentage change

in the price index from the preceding period

inflation tax—the revenue the government raises by creating money

investment—spending on capital equipment, inventories, and structures, including household purchases of new housing

job search—the process by which workers find appropriate jobs given their tastes and skills

labor force—the total number of workers, including both the employed and the unemployed

labor-force participation rate—the percentage of the adult population that is in the labor force

law of demand—the claim that, other things equal, the quantity demanded of a good falls when the price of the good rises

law of supply—the claim that, other things equal, the quantity supplied of a good rises when the price of the good rises

law of supply and demand—the claim that the price of any good adjusts to bring the supply and demand for that good into balance

liquidity—the ease with which an asset can be converted into the economy’s medium of exchange

macroeconomics—the study of econ- omy-wide phenomena, including inflation, unemployment, and economic growth

marginal changes—small incremental adjustments to a plan of action market—a group of buyers and sellers

of a particular good or service market economy—an economy that allocates resources through the decentralized decisions of many

firms and households as they interact in markets for goods and services

market failure—a situation in which a market left on its own fails to allocate resources efficiently

market for loanable funds—the market in which those who want to save supply funds and those who

want to borrow to invest demand funds

market power—the ability of a single economic actor (or small group of actors) to have a substantial influence on market prices

medium of exchange—an item that buyers give to sellers when they want to purchase goods and services

menu costs—the costs of changing prices

microeconomics—the study of how households and firms make decisions and how they interact in markets

model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply—the model that most economists use to explain short-run fluctuations in economic activity around its long-run trend

monetary neutrality—the proposition that changes in the money supply do not affect real variables

monetary policy—the setting of the money supply by policymakers in the central bank

money—the set of assets in an economy that people regularly use to buy goods and services from other people

money multiplier—the amount of money the banking system generates with each dollar of reserves

money supply—the quantity of money available in the economy

multiplier effect—the additional shifts in aggregate demand that result when expansionary fiscal policy increases income and thereby increases consumer spending

mutual fund—an institution that sells shares to the public and uses the proceeds to buy a portfolio of stocks and bonds

national saving (saving)—the total income in the economy that remains after paying for consumption and government purchases

natural-rate hypothesis—the claim that unemployment eventually returns to its normal, or natural, rate, regardless of the rate of inflation

natural rate of unemployment—the normal rate of unemployment around which the unemployment rate fluctuates

natural resources—the inputs into the production of goods and services that are provided by nature, such as land, rivers, and mineral deposits

net exports—the value of a nation’s exports minus the value of its imports, also called the trade balance

net foreign investment—the purchase of foreign assets by domestic residents minus the purchase of domestic assets by foreigners

nominal exchange rate—the rate at which a person can trade the

currency of one country for the currency of another

nominal GDP—the production of goods and services valued at current prices

nominal interest rate—the interest rate as usually reported without a correction for the effects of inflation

nominal variables—variables measured in monetary units

normal good—a good for which, other things equal, an increase in income leads to an increase in demand normative statements—claims that attempt to prescribe how the world

should be

open economy—an economy that interacts freely with other economies around the world

open-market operations—the purchase and sale of U.S. government bonds by the Fed

opportunity cost—whatever must be given up to obtain some item

Phillips curve—a curve that shows the short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment

physical capital—the stock of equipment and structures that are used to produce goods and services

positive statements—claims that attempt to describe the world as it is

price ceiling—a legal maximum on the price at which a good can be sold

price elasticity of demand—a measure of how much the quantity demanded of a good responds to a change in the price of that good,

computed as the percentage change in quantity demanded divided by the percentage change in price

price elasticity of supply—a measure of how much the quantity supplied of a good responds to a change in

the price of that good, computed as the percentage change in quantity supplied divided by the percentage change in price

price floor—a legal minimum on the price at which a good can be sold

private saving—the income that households have left after paying for taxes and consumption

producer price index—a measure of the cost of a basket of goods and services bought by firms

producer surplus—the amount a seller is paid for a good minus the seller’s cost

production possibilities frontier—a graph that shows the combinations of output that the economy can possibly produce given the available factors of production and the available production technology

productivity—the amount of goods and services produced from each hour of a worker’s time

public saving—the tax revenue that the government has left after paying for its spending

purchasing-power parity—a theory of exchange rates whereby a unit of any given currency should be able to buy the same quantity of goods in all countries

quantity demanded—the amount of a good that buyers are willing and able to purchase

quantity equation—the equation M V P Y, which relates the quantity of money, the velocity of money, and the dollar value of the economy’s output of goods and services

quantity supplied—the amount of a good that sellers are willing and able to sell

quantity theory of money—a theory asserting that the quantity of money available determines the price level and that the growth rate in the quantity of money available determines the inflation rate

rational expectations—the theory according to which people optimally use all the information they have, including information about government policies, when forecasting the future

real exchange rate—the rate at which a person can trade the goods and

GLOSSARY 525

services of one country for the goods and services of another real GDP—the production of goods and services valued at constant

prices

real interest rate—the interest rate corrected for the effects of inflation

real variables—variables measured in physical units

recession—a period of declining real incomes and rising unemployment reserve ratio—the fraction of deposits

that banks hold as reserves reserve requirements—regulations

on the minimum amount of reserves that banks must hold against deposits

reserves—deposits that banks have received but have not loaned out

sacrifice ratio—the number of percentage points of annual output lost in the process of reducing inflation by 1 percentage point

scarcity—the limited nature of society’s resources

shoeleather costs—the resources wasted when inflation encourages people to reduce their money holdings

shortage—a situation in which quantity demanded is greater than quantity supplied

stagflation—a period of falling output and rising prices

stock—a claim to partial ownership in a firm

store of value—an item that people can use to transfer purchasing power from the present to the future

strike—the organized withdrawal of labor from a firm by a union structural unemployment—unem-

ployment that results because the number of jobs available in some labor markets is insufficient to provide a job for everyone who wants one

substitutes—two goods for which an increase in the price of one leads to an increase in the demand for the other

supply curve—a graph of the relationship between the price of a good and the quantity supplied

supply schedule—a table that shows the relationship between the

526 GLOSSARY

price of a good and the quantity supplied

supply shock—an event that directly alters firms’ costs and prices, shifting the economy’s aggregate-supply curve and thus the Phillips curve

surplus—a situation in which quantity supplied is greater than quantity demanded

tariff—a tax on goods produced abroad and sold domestically

tax incidence—the study of who bears the burden of taxation

technological knowledge—society’s understanding of the best ways to produce goods and services

theory of liquidity preference—

Keynes’s theory that the interest rate adjusts to bring money supply and money demand into balance

total revenue—the amount paid by buyers and received by sellers of a good, computed as the price of the good times the quantity sold

trade balance—the value of a nation’s exports minus the value of its imports, also called net exports

trade deficit—an excess of imports over exports

trade policy—a government policy that directly influences the quantity of goods and services that a country imports or exports

trade surplus—an excess of exports over imports

unemployment insurance—a government program that partially protects workers’ incomes when they become unemployed

unemployment rate—the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed

union—a worker association that bargains with employers over wages and working conditions

unit of account—the yardstick people use to post prices and record debts

velocity of money—the rate at which money changes hands

welfare economics—the study of how the allocation of resources affects economic well-being

willingness to pay—the maximum amount that a buyer will pay for a good

world price—the price of a good that prevails in the world market for that good