Mini-course 1 Decision Analysis (Dr. Mariya Sodenkamp) / Class 1 / Paderborn_ITB_L1_ 2015_04_13 Instructor

Rolling Dice Expansion

Consequences Table

					Alternatives
	Kerket		Bertstat		Blueport		Warsburg		Telyxt		Feldburg
Population	200 000		400 000		350 000		100 000		300 000		250 000
Average income,$	35 000		50 000		40 000		45 000		55 000		30 000
No. of retail stores	100		600		450		250		400		350
Set-up cost	500 000		300 000		400 000		450 000		400 000		350 000
Taxes	High		High		Low		Moderate		Low		Low
Av. Family size	2.5		1.5		2.5		2.0		2.0		3.0
No. of competitors	2		3		0		2		1		1
No. of major roads	1		4		4		2		3		4

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SOLUTION

Rolling Dice Expansion

Ranking Table

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Rolling Dice Expansion

Ranking Table

					Alternatives
	Kerket		Bertstat		Blueport		Warsburg		Telyxt		Feldburg
Population	5		1		2		6		3		4
Average income,$	5		2		4		3		1		6
No. of retail stores	5		1		2		5		3		4
Set-up cost	6		1		3 (tie)		5		3 (tie)		2
Taxes	5 (tie)		5 (tie)		1 (tie)		4		1 (tie)		1 (tie)
Av. Family size	4 (tie)		1		4 (tie)		2 (tie)		2 (tie)		6
No. of competitors	4 (tie)		6		1		4 (tie)		2 (tie)		2 (tie)
No. of major roads	6		1 (tie)		1 (tie)		5		4		1 (tie)

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SOLUTION

Rolling Dice Expansion

Logical Dominance

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Rolling Dice Expansion

Logical Dominance

					Alternatives
	Kerket		Bertstat		Blueport		Warsburg		Telyxt		Feldburg
Population	5		1		2		6		3		4
Average income,$	5		2		4		3		1		6
No. of retail stores	5		1		2		5		3		4
Set-up cost	6		1		3 (tie)		5		3 (tie)		2
Taxes	5 (tie)		5 (tie)		1 (tie)		4		1 (tie)		1 (tie)
Av. Family size	4 (tie)		1		4 (tie)		2 (tie)		2 (tie)		6
No. of competitors	4 (tie)		6		1		4 (tie)		2 (tie)		2 (tie)
No. of major roads	6		1 (tie)		1 (tie)		5		4		1 (tie)

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Rolling Dice Expansion

Logical Dominance (cont’d)

			Alternatives
	Kerket	Bertstat	Blueport	Telyxt	Feldburg
Population	5	1	2	3	4
Average income,$	5	2	4	1	6
No. of retail stores	5	1	2	3	4
Set-up cost	6	1	3 (tie)	3 (tie)	2
Taxes	5 (tie)	5 (tie)	1 (tie)	1 (tie)	1 (tie)
Av. Family size	4 (tie)	1	4 (tie)	2 (tie)	6
No. of competitors	4 (tie)	6	1	2 (tie)	2 (tie)
No. of major roads	6	1 (tie)	1 (tie)	4	1 (tie)

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Rolling Dice Expansion

Even Swap

		Alternatives
	Bertstat	Blueport	Telyxt	Feldburg
Population	400 000	350 000	300 000	250 000
Average income,$	50 000	40 000	55 000	30 000
No. of retail stores	600	450	400	350
Set-up cost	300,000+100,00	400,000	400,000	350,000+50,000
	0= 400,000			=400,000
Taxes	High	Low	Low	Low
Av. Family size	1.5	2.5	2.0	3.0
No. of competitors	3 2	0	1	1 0
No. of major roads	4	4	3	4

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SOLUTION

Rolling Dice Expansion

Ranking Table 2

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Rolling Dice Expansion

Ranking Table 2

		Alternatives
	Bertstat	Blueport	Telyxt		Feldburg
Population	1	2		3	4
Average income,$	2	3		1	4
No. of retail stores	1	2		3	4
Taxes	4	1 (tie)	1	(tie)	1 (tie)
Av. Family size	1	3		2	4
No. of competitors	4	1 (tie)		3	1 (tie)
No. of major roads	1 (tie)	1 (tie)		4	1 (tie)

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SOLUTION

Rolling Dice Expansion

Logical Dominance 2

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