СЭГ Мира / 1 семестр / ПРАКТИКУМ СЭГ мира,часть 1 / ХРЕСТОМАТИЯ электронная / 02 ТОПЛИВНО-ЭНЕРГЕТИЧ КОМПЛЕКС 2008 / ИНФОРМАЦИОННЫЙ БЮЛЛЕТЕНЬ SAIS

Biofuels grow, but fall short of the 36 billion gallon RFS target in 2022, exceed it in 2035

billion gallon-equivalents
45	Legislated RFS in 2022	Renewable

40					diesel

35	RFS with				Biomass-to-
					liquids
30	adjustments under				Biodiesel
	CAA Sec.211(o)(7)
25					Net ethanol
20				Other	imports
					Cellulosic
15				feedstocks
					ethanol
10
5					Corn ethanol
0	2008	2022	2022 in		2035
			AEO2009
	Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009			Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010		11

New light duty vehicle efficiency reaches 40 mpg by 2035

miles per gallon

45
40
35
30
25
20
15			History
10			AEO2010
			Updated AEO2009 reference case
5
0
2000	2005	2010	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

12

Mild and full hybrid systems dominate new light-duty vehicle sales by 2035

millions		History			Projections
10
9	Electric/fuel cell
8
	Plug-in hybrid electric
7
	Hybrid electric
6
	Mild hybrid electric
5
	Gaseous
4
	Flex fuel
3
	Diesel
2
1
0
	2000	2008	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

13

Natural gas wellhead price is projected to rise from low levels experienced during 2008-2009 recession

2008 dollars per thousand cubic feet

10		History						Projections
8
6
4
2							AEO2010 reference case
							Updated AEO2009 reference case
0
1980	1985	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

14

Import share of natural gas supply declines as domestic supply grows

trillion cubic feet

30		History					Projections
25	Consumption								6%
								2%
20	Net imports		13%
	Domestic supply
15					AEO2010 reference case
					Updated AEO2009 reference case
10
1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

15

Shale gas has been the primary source of recent growth in

U.S. technically recoverable natural gas resources

trillion cubic feet

2250
2000
1750
1500
1250
1000
750
500
250
0
1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010

Unproved shale gas & other unconventional

Unproved conventional (including Alaska*)

Proved reserves

(all types & locations)

AEO edition

*Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO2009 reflect resources from the North Slope that were not included in previously published documentation.

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009	Source: U.S. Geological Service, Mineral
	Management Service, private data, and EIA.16

Shale gas and Alaska production offset declines in supply to meet consumption growth and lower import needs

trillion cubic feet

25		History				Projections
							Alaska
20							Shale gas
15							Coalbed methane
10							Non-associated onshore
5							Non-associated offshore
							Associated with oil
0							Net imports
1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

17

Growth in electricity use continues to slow

3-year rolling average percent growth

Period

Annual Growth

14

History

1950s

9.8

Str

1960s

7.3

1970s

4.7

12

uct

1980s

2.9

ural

C

han

ge

1990s

2.4

i

10

n

E

2000-2008

0.9

conom

y

2008-2035

1.0

-

H

8

i

gher

pr

i

Projections

ces -

S

6

t

an

dar

ds -

I

m

p

r

4

o

ved

e

f

f

i

c

i

en

2

cy

0

-2

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

1950

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

18

Natural gas and renewables account for the majority of capacity additions from 2008 to 2035

2008 capacity

Hydropower*

99 (10%)

Nuclear

101 (10%) Other

	renewables		1,008
	40	(4%)
			gigawatts

Other 119 (12%)

				Capacity additions
				2008 to 2035
					Hydropower*
	Coal			Nuclear 1 (0.4%)
				8	(3%)		Coal
	312	(31%)				31	(12%)
				Other	250
			renewables
				92 (37%)	gigawatts

		Other		Natural gas
		2	(1%)
				116	(46%)
Natural gas
338	(33%)	* Includes pumped storage

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

19

Renewables gain electricity market share; coal share declines

billion kilowatthours and percent shares

6,000		History				Projections
5,000									17.0
4,000				9.1		Renewable			20.8
3,000				21.4		Natural gas
2,000				48.5		Coal			43.8
1,000				1.5		Oil and other			1.4
0				19.6		Nuclear			17.1
1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

20