A Theory of Protracted Social Conflict

Edward E Azar, one of the forefathers of the conflict resolution field was the first to the describe violent events in the developing world as Protracted Social Conflicts, which he defines as follows:

‘In brief, protracted social conflicts occur when communities are deprived of satisfaction of their basic needs on the basis of the communal identity. However, the deprivation is the result of a complex causal chain involving the role of the state and the pattern of international linkages. Furthermore, initial conditions (colonial legacy, domestic historical setting, and the multi-communal nature of the society) play important roles in shaping the genesis of protracted social conflict.’¹

This understanding of conflict was in stark contrast with a realist notion of politics that saw conflict being an inevitable power struggle which saw actors at all levels trying to establish some comparative advantage and instead argued for a view that sought ‘collective security, community building and prosperity.’² Protracted social conflicts have a number of key characteristics that define them incorporating three key phases, Genesis, Process Dynamics & Outcomes Analysis.

Genesis

Genesis refers to a ‘set of conditions that are responsible for the transformation of non-conflictual situations into conflictual ones’³. Azar identifies four key variables for this process.

Communal Content Azar suggests that the most significant of all factors that lead towards the formation of PSC are societies that can be characterised as having a ‘multi-communal’ composition. Multi-communal societies, whether formed as a result of divide-and-rule policies of former colonial powers or whether through historical rivalries often resulted in the dominance of one group over the other which Azar states as being ‘...characterised by disarticulation between the state and society as a whole. With the state usually dominated by a single communal group or a coalition of a few communal groups that are unresponsive to the needs of other groups in the society.’⁴ Azar suggests that efforts to reconcile this by enforcing integration or co-operation ‘retards the nation-building process, strains the social fabric and eventually breeds fragmentation and protracted social conflict.’⁵

Human Needs Azar’s second variable allows us to consider to what extent identity groups are able to access developmental human needs:

‘The most obvious ontological need is individual and communal physical survival and well-being. Individual or communal survival is contingent upon the satisfaction of basic needs. In the world of physical scarcity, these basic needs are seldom evenly or justly met. Whilst one group of individuals may enjoy satisfaction of those needs in abundance, others do not. Grievances resulting from need deprivation are usually expressed collectively. Failure to redress these grievances by the authority cultivates a niche for a protracted social conflict.’⁶

Azar continues to note that developmental needs do not need to be thought of as primarily physical and neither do such unmet material needs lead directly to conflict. What is key, however, is the degree to which minority groups can access the market or political institutions or the recognition of communal existence. This then leads to us having a much more broad understanding of human needs that if unmet, may become causal variables which will be attempted to be readdressed by violence.

Government and the States Role Azar’s third variable turns its attention to the role of the state and its role in ensuring that all communal groups under its jurisdiction are able to meet their basic human needs. Azar notes that in those countries that are experiencing protracted social conflict, political power tends to be dominated by one identity group that uses its resources to maintain power over the other. In turn, to ensure that the group in power remains so, PSC-affected countries will often see attempts by the dominant group to resist participation of minority groups. Azar concludes with his note that, ‘such crises exacerbate already existing competitive or conflictive situations, diminish the states ability to meet basic needs, and lead to further developmental crises. Thus regime type and the level of legitimacy are important linkage variables between needs and protracted social conflict.’⁷

International Linkages Azar’s fourth variable points to the role of how it not simply governance at the state level that leads to communal groups being unable to access basic human needs, security or recognition but the extent to which internal policy is dictated by international linkages. Azar categorises two distinct forms in which these international linkages can take; economic dependency and client relationships. States which are economically dependent on the broader international economic system, in turn see their autonomy weakened as economic development policies are part dictated by outside influences. Azar goes further to note, 'Moreover, dependency often exacerbates denial of the access needs of communal groups, distorting the domestic political and economic systems through the realignment of subtle coalitions of international capital, domestic capital and the state.’⁸ Client relationships, referring to arrangements whereby a states security is guaranteed in return for loyalty can be equally significant with governments potentially distracted from their key responsibilities, ‘ Client loyalty and obedience involved some sacrifice of autonomy and independence, which induces the client state to pursue both domestic and foreign policies disjointed from, or contradictory to, the needs of its own public.”⁹