- •Will 2019 be another difficult year for EM?
- •When will EM equities begin a decent rally; what support is required?
- •Is there a case for local-currency debt over hard-currency debt?
- •Positives to rely on; developments to be warned of
- •Key messages
- •Signposts and triggers for change
- •Pictures that tell the story
- •Overview of EM asset calls
- •EM growth challenges return
- •Late cycle is not kind to EM, but no blow-ups this time
- •Equities: Cheapening as expected, amid tighter liquidity
- •Box 1: What do asset, product and labour markets tell us about the stage of the economic cycle?
- •Box 1: What do asset, product and labour markets tell us about the stage of the economic cycle? (continued)
- •Chinese equities better placed than many in EM
- •Currencies: Better total returns
- •Box 2: How far are we from capitulation in EM equities?
- •Box 3: How can investors overcome EM's weakest link – currencies?
- •Top trades for 2019
- •1. Long China A-shares vs EM ex China, Long USDCNY
- •2. Long MSCI EM Value vs MSCI EM Growth
- •3. Long 10y Indian government bonds vs MSCI India
- •5. Long G3 currencies vs KRW
- •6. Long CZK vs ZAR
- •7. Long 10y Russia OFZ, long RUBCAD
- •8. Long NTN-F 2025, Long BRLCOP
- •9. Receive 2Y Mexico TIIE rates
- •China (too) makes difficult choices now
- •Box 4: Can a more globally accepted CNY help fund a potential deficit in China?
- •Box 5: How sensitive are global assets to a weaker CNY?
- •Box 5: How sensitive are global assets to a weaker CNY? (Continued)
- •Equities: Probing what is cheap and why
- •The 'where and how' of EM being cheap – taking a lens to EM multiples
- •The consensus and reality on earnings
- •Our bottom-up numbers agree with the top-down
- •Understanding the size, sector and country reads
- •Box 6: Can Indian equities find their groove?
- •Can the consumption story recover?
- •Temporary liquidity squeeze or credit shock?
- •Box 6: Can Indian equities find their groove? (continued)
- •Have valuations adjusted enough for a re-examination?
- •Growth or Value?
- •Leading indicators suggest Growth heavyweights, consumer and tech, will remain under pressure for now
- •Box 7: Semiconductors: Where next for the fading 'Memory Supernova'?
- •A different size and nature of stimulus from China
- •Currencies: A shift in pressure points
- •That unravelled fast
- •Box 8: What reforms can we expect from Brazil?
- •Box 9: What is the collateral damage from China's inclusion in global indices?
- •A narrowing growth gap against DM still, but for different reasons
- •Can external balances, carry and valuation help EMFX withstand the relative growth challenges?
- •Box 10: Why is EM growth not benefitting from stronger US growth?
- •We find few currencies to be cheap enough to withstand further pressure.
- •The CNY will remain a source of volatility
- •Main risks to our views
- •Local rates: Buffered by term premia & real rates
- •Another challenging year ahead, but past worst
- •Has value been re-built?
- •Which markets are rich, and which are cheap?
- •Which local rates are sensitive to FX and credit?
- •Box 11: Which EM debt market is most vulnerable to slower portfolio flows?
- •Box 12: What will ECB and BoJ normalisation mean for EM assets?
- •Box 12: What will ECB and BoJ normalisation mean for EM assets? (continued)
- •Monetary policy expectations: what’s mispriced?
- •Curve shapes – where’s the alpha?
- •Box 13: Where is term premium in EM local currency debt?
- •Putting everything together
- •Credit: Help from more realistic risk premia
- •No large step adjustment due in EM credit
- •A modest widening amid weak growth is the base case
- •CNY volatility will mean greater pressure on EM corporates
- •Box 15: Will onshore defaults continue in China?
- •Political calendar
- •Performance of 2018 top trades
- •UBS FX & macroeconomic forecasts
- •Valuation Method and Risk Statement
vk.com/id446425943
UBS FX & macroeconomic forecasts
Global Macro Strategy 19 November 2018 |
95 |
vk.com/id446425943
Figure 190: UBS EM macroeconomic forecasts (part 1/2)
|
Real GDP growth (%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CPI Inflation year end (%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
|
|
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
|
|
China |
6.9 |
6.7 |
6.9 |
6.5 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
|
|
China |
1.6 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
2.6 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
|
|
Hong Kong |
2.4 |
2.2 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
3.0 |
3.3 |
|
|
Hong Kong |
2.4 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
4.3 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
|
|
India |
8.2 |
7.1 |
6.7 |
7.3 |
7.3 |
7.4 |
|
|
India |
5.3 |
3.6 |
4.6 |
4.6 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
|
|
Indonesia |
4.9 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
5.3 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
|
|
Indonesia |
3.4 |
3.0 |
3.6 |
3.3 |
6.1 |
3.5 |
|
|
Malaysia |
5.1 |
4.2 |
5.9 |
4.7 |
4.0 |
4.6 |
|
|
Malaysia |
2.7 |
1.7 |
3.6 |
0.7 |
2.9 |
2.2 |
|
|
Philippines |
6.1 |
6.9 |
6.7 |
6.4 |
6.1 |
6.1 |
|
|
Philippines |
0.7 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
6.6 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
|
|
Singapore |
2.2 |
2.4 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
|
|
Singapore |
-0.6 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
|
|
South Korea |
2.8 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
|
|
South Korea |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
1.4 |
|
|
Taiwan |
0.8 |
1.4 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
2.6 |
2.8 |
|
|
Taiwan |
0.1 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
|
|
Thailand |
3.0 |
3.3 |
3.9 |
4.4 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
|
|
Thailand |
-0.9 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
|
|
Argentina |
2.7 |
-1.8 |
2.8 |
-2.3 |
-2.0 |
1.8 |
|
|
Argentina |
27.0 |
38.0 |
24.8 |
47.3 |
27.0 |
18.0 |
|
|
Brazil |
-3.5 |
-3.5 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
|
|
Brazil |
10.7 |
6.3 |
2.9 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
4.0 |
|
|
Chile |
2.3 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
4.1 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
|
|
Chile |
4.4 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
|
|
Colombia |
3.0 |
2.0 |
1.6 |
2.7 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
|
|
Colombia |
6.8 |
5.7 |
4.1 |
3.3 |
4.5 |
3.6 |
|
|
Mexico |
3.3 |
2.9 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
|
|
Mexico |
2.1 |
3.4 |
6.8 |
4.2 |
3.7 |
3.3 |
|
|
Peru |
3.3 |
4.0 |
2.5 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.6 |
|
|
Peru |
4.4 |
3.2 |
1.4 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
|
|
Venezuela |
-5.7 |
-16.5 |
-15.5 |
-19.0 |
-13.0 |
-10.0 |
|
|
Venezuela |
180.9 |
302.6 |
2800.0 |
6500000.0 |
9500000.0 |
14000000.0 |
|
|
Czech Republic |
5.3 |
2.6 |
4.3 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
|
|
Czech Republic |
0.1 |
2.0 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
|
|
Hungary |
3.4 |
2.2 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
|
|
Hungary |
0.9 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
3.4 |
2.8 |
3.1 |
|
|
Kazakhstan |
1.2 |
1.1 |
4.1 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
|
|
Kazakhstan |
13.8 |
8.5 |
7.0 |
5.7 |
5.6 |
5.3 |
|
|
Poland |
3.8 |
3.0 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
3.8 |
3.6 |
|
|
Poland |
-0.5 |
0.8 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
2.5 |
|
|
Russia |
-2.5 |
-0.2 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
2.1 |
|
|
Russia |
12.9 |
5.4 |
2.5 |
3.9 |
4.5 |
3.9 |
|
|
South Africa |
1.3 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2.1 |
|
|
South Africa |
5.2 |
6.7 |
4.7 |
5.1 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
|
|
Turkey |
6.1 |
3.2 |
7.4 |
3.6 |
-0.8 |
2.3 |
|
|
Turkey |
8.8 |
8.5 |
11.9 |
25.4 |
13.5 |
9.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overall Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) |
|
|
|
|
|
Current Account (% of GDP) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
|
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
|
|
China |
-3.4 |
-3.8 |
-3.7 |
-2.9 |
-3.3 |
-3.3 |
|
China |
2.7 |
1.8 |
1.3 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
|
|
Hong Kong |
0.6 |
4.5 |
5.6 |
1.7 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
|
Hong Kong |
3.3 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
|
|
India |
-6.9 |
-7.0 |
-6.6 |
-6.3 |
-6.1 |
-5.8 |
|
India |
-1.1 |
-0.6 |
-1.9 |
-2.8 |
-2.5 |
-2.4 |
|
|
Indonesia |
-2.6 |
-2.5 |
-2.5 |
-2.2 |
-2.0 |
-2.0 |
|
Indonesia |
-2.0 |
-1.8 |
-1.7 |
-3.0 |
-2.6 |
-2.3 |
|
|
Malaysia |
-3.2 |
-3.1 |
-3.0 |
-3.7 |
-3.4 |
-3.0 |
|
Malaysia |
3.0 |
2.4 |
3.0 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
3.1 |
|
|
Philippines |
-0.9 |
-2.4 |
-2.2 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
|
Philippines |
2.5 |
-0.4 |
-0.7 |
-2.7 |
-3.2 |
-3.0 |
|
|
Singapore |
-0.6 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
-1.6 |
-2.0 |
-2.4 |
|
Singapore |
18.6 |
19.1 |
18.8 |
16.8 |
16.1 |
14.5 |
|
|
South Korea |
0.0 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
|
South Korea |
7.9 |
7.3 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
4.6 |
5.8 |
|
|
Taiwan |
0.1 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
-1.0 |
-1.0 |
-1.0 |
|
Taiwan |
14.2 |
13.7 |
14.5 |
12.8 |
11.0 |
13.0 |
|
|
Thailand |
-2.9 |
-2.8 |
-3.5 |
-3.2 |
-3.2 |
-3.5 |
|
Thailand |
8.0 |
11.7 |
11.0 |
6.0 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Argentina |
-1.1 |
-7.0 |
-6.1 |
-5.6 |
-3.1 |
-2.2 |
|
Argentina |
-2.7 |
-2.7 |
-4.9 |
-4.3 |
-2.1 |
-2.6 |
|
|
Brazil |
-10.3 |
-9.0 |
-7.8 |
-7.6 |
-7.6 |
-7.0 |
|
Brazil |
-3.3 |
-1.3 |
-0.5 |
-0.8 |
-1.8 |
-2.0 |
|
|
Chile |
-2.2 |
-2.7 |
-2.8 |
-2.0 |
-1.8 |
-1.5 |
|
Chile |
-2.3 |
-1.4 |
-1.6 |
-2.3 |
-2.4 |
-2.1 |
|
|
Colombia |
-3.1 |
-3.8 |
-3.2 |
-3.1 |
-2.6 |
-2.2 |
|
Colombia |
-6.3 |
-4.3 |
-3.4 |
-3.0 |
-2.9 |
-2.8 |
|
|
Mexico |
-3.4 |
-2.5 |
-1.1 |
-2.5 |
-3.3 |
-3.4 |
|
Mexico |
-2.6 |
-2.2 |
-1.7 |
-1.8 |
-1.9 |
-2.2 |
|
|
Peru |
-2.0 |
-2.5 |
-3.1 |
-2.2 |
-2.3 |
-2.0 |
|
Peru |
-4.8 |
-2.7 |
-1.1 |
-1.7 |
-1.9 |
-2.0 |
|
|
Venezuela |
-17.6 |
-17.8 |
-31.8 |
-30.5 |
-30.0 |
-31.1 |
|
Venezuela |
-8.7 |
-2.6 |
7.0 |
7.1 |
6.1 |
1.8 |
|
|
Czech Republic |
-0.6 |
0.7 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
|
Czech Republic |
0.2 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
|
|
Hungary |
-1.9 |
-1.7 |
-2.0 |
-2.3 |
-1.8 |
-1.6 |
|
Hungary |
2.9 |
6.5 |
3.3 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
|
|
Kazakhstan |
-3.8 |
-4.4 |
-6.5 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
|
Kazakhstan |
-2.8 |
-6.5 |
-3.4 |
-0.7 |
-1.0 |
-1.5 |
|
|
Poland |
-2.6 |
-2.3 |
-1.7 |
-0.8 |
-1.6 |
-1.9 |
|
Poland |
-0.6 |
-0.5 |
0.1 |
-0.3 |
-0.6 |
-1.0 |
|
|
Russia |
-2.4 |
-3.4 |
-1.5 |
1.7 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
|
Russia |
5.0 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
6.8 |
5.9 |
4.8 |
|
|
South Africa |
-3.7 |
-3.6 |
-4.0 |
-4.0 |
-4.2 |
-4.2 |
|
South Africa |
-4.6 |
-2.8 |
-2.5 |
-3.2 |
-3.6 |
-3.9 |
|
|
Turkey |
-1.3 |
-2.3 |
-2.3 |
-4.0 |
-4.5 |
-4.5 |
|
Turkey |
-3.7 |
-3.8 |
-5.6 |
-5.3 |
-3.0 |
-3.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: UBS estimates
Global Macro Strategy 19 November 2018 |
96 |
vk.com/id446425943
Figure 191: UBS EM macroeconomic forecasts (part 2/2)
Year-end policy rate (%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Foreign Exchange Rate (EOP) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
|
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
|
China |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
|
China |
6.5 |
6.9 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
7.3 |
7.3 |
|
Hong Kong |
0.39 |
1.02 |
1.31 |
2.45 |
3.20 |
3.20 |
|
Hong Kong |
7.8 |
7.8 |
7.8 |
7.8 |
7.8 |
7.8 |
|
India |
6.75 |
6.25 |
6.00 |
6.50 |
6.50 |
6.50 |
|
India |
66.3 |
64.8 |
65.0 |
76.0 |
77.0 |
77.0 |
|
Indonesia |
na |
4.75 |
4.25 |
6.00 |
6.00 |
6.00 |
|
Indonesia |
13795 |
13436 |
13548 |
14700 |
15200 |
15200 |
|
Malaysia |
3.25 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3.50 |
|
Malaysia |
4.3 |
4.5 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
4.2 |
|
Philippines |
4.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
4.50 |
4.50 |
4.50 |
|
Philippines |
47.2 |
49.8 |
49.9 |
53.0 |
55.0 |
55.0 |
|
Singapore |
1.19 |
0.97 |
1.50 |
1.90 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
|
Singapore |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
|
South Korea |
1.50 |
1.25 |
1.50 |
1.75 |
2.00 |
2.50 |
|
South Korea |
1173 |
1208 |
1071 |
1125 |
1150 |
1150 |
|
Taiwan |
1.63 |
1.38 |
1.38 |
1.50 |
1.75 |
2.00 |
|
Taiwan |
33.1 |
32.3 |
29.8 |
31.0 |
31.8 |
32.0 |
|
Thailand |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
2.00 |
|
Thailand |
36.1 |
35.8 |
32.6 |
33.0 |
34.0 |
34.0 |
|
Argentina |
35.70 |
24.75 |
28.75 |
65.00 |
42.50 |
27.00 |
|
Argentina |
11.4 |
15.8 |
17.7 |
40.0 |
48.5 |
59.0 |
|
Brazil |
14.25 |
13.75 |
7.00 |
6.50 |
9.00 |
7.00 |
|
Brazil |
4.0 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chile |
3.50 |
3.50 |
2.50 |
3.00 |
4.00 |
4.50 |
|
Chile |
707.3 |
667.3 |
615.2 |
650.0 |
630.0 |
630.0 |
|
Colombia |
5.75 |
7.50 |
4.75 |
4.25 |
5.25 |
5.75 |
|
Colombia |
3149 |
3001 |
2984 |
3200 |
3300 |
3350 |
|
Mexico |
3.25 |
5.75 |
7.25 |
8.00 |
7.50 |
6.50 |
|
Mexico |
17.2 |
20.7 |
19.8 |
19.5 |
20.5 |
21.2 |
|
Peru |
3.75 |
4.25 |
3.25 |
2.75 |
3.50 |
3.75 |
|
Peru |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.4 |
|
Venezuela |
14.70 |
14.96 |
15.00 |
15.00 |
15.00 |
15.00 |
|
Venezuela |
80.4 |
94.4 |
15122.4 |
73.1 |
448613.6 |
34686998.1 |
|
Czech Republic |
0.05 |
0.05 |
0.50 |
1.75 |
2.25 |
2.50 |
|
Czech Republic |
24.8 |
25.7 |
21.3 |
22.2 |
20.3 |
18.5 |
|
Hungary |
1.35 |
0.90 |
0.90 |
0.90 |
1.00 |
1.75 |
|
Hungary |
287.2 |
296.2 |
261.9 |
275.9 |
260.2 |
242.3 |
|
Kazakhstan |
16.00 |
12.00 |
10.25 |
9.50 |
9.00 |
8.75 |
|
Kazakhstan |
339.5 |
333.3 |
331.3 |
360.0 |
345.0 |
350.0 |
|
Poland |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
2.00 |
|
Poland |
3.9 |
4.2 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
3.2 |
|
Russia |
11.00 |
10.00 |
7.75 |
7.75 |
7.50 |
7.25 |
|
Russia |
72.9 |
60.7 |
57.6 |
64.5 |
61.0 |
63.0 |
|
South Africa |
6.25 |
7.00 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
7.00 |
7.25 |
|
South Africa |
15.6 |
13.7 |
12.7 |
14.5 |
15.3 |
15.3 |
|
Turkey |
8.80 |
8.31 |
12.75 |
24.00 |
17.00 |
13.00 |
|
Turkey |
2.9 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
5.8 |
6.3 |
6.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: UBS estimates
Global Macro Strategy 19 November 2018 |
97 |
vk.com/id446425943
Figure 192: UBS EM FX forecasts vs USD*
Majors |
|
|
|
|
Spot At the Time of Forecast |
12m Fwds |
2019E |
||
EURUSD |
1.1267 |
1.1655 |
1.2300 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
USDJPY |
113.93 |
110.19 |
113.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
EURJPY |
128.36 |
128.43 |
138.99 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
GBPUSD |
1.2909 |
1.3153 |
1.3820 |
|
EURGBP |
0.8728 |
0.8861 |
0.8900 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
EURCHF |
1.1380 |
1.1329 |
1.2300 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
USDCHF |
1.0100 |
0.9721 |
1.0000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
EURSEK |
10.2723 |
10.2874 |
9.6000 |
|
EURNOK |
9.6072 |
9.7750 |
9.0000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
AUDUSD |
0.7196 |
0.7242 |
0.7700 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NZDUSD |
0.6776 |
0.6818 |
0.7000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
USDCAD |
1.3234 |
1.3157 |
1.2800 |
|
Emerging Asia |
|
|
|
|
Spot At the Time of Forecast |
12m Fwds |
2019E |
||
USDCNY |
6.9541 |
7.0125 |
7.3000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
USDHKD |
7.8330 |
7.7828 |
7.8000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
USDIDR |
14787 |
15649 |
15200 |
|
USDINR |
72.310 |
75.2800 |
77.000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
USDKRW |
1134.2 |
1116.9 |
1150.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
USDMYR |
4.1958 |
4.2034 |
4.4000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
USDPHP |
53.108 |
54.510 |
55.000 |
|
USDSGD |
1.3817 |
1.3673 |
1.3800 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
USDTHB |
32.995 |
32.610 |
34.000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
USDTWD |
30.926 |
29.908 |
31.800 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Emerging Europe |
|
|
|
|
Spot At the Time of Forecast |
12m Fwds |
2019E |
||
EURCZK |
25.995 |
26.427 |
25.000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
EURHUF |
322.91 |
325.70 |
320.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
EURPLN |
4.2965 |
4.3938 |
4.2000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
USDRUB |
67.783 |
71.079 |
61.000 |
|
USDTRY |
5.4663 |
6.6248 |
6.2500 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
USDZAR |
14.402 |
15.067 |
15.250 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Emerging Americas |
|
|
|
|
Spot At the Time of Forecast |
12m Fwds |
2019E |
||
USDARS |
36.0300 |
51.796 |
48.500 |
|
USDBRL |
3.7988 |
3.9021 |
3.5500 |
|
USDCLP |
691.00 |
619.58 |
630.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
USDCOP |
3189.7 |
3248.5 |
3300.0 |
|
USDMXN |
20.479 |
21.771 |
20.500 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
USDPEN |
3.3795 |
3.4250 |
3.3400 |
|
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
UBS 2019 |
Forecast |
|
12m Forward |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
-8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
JPY |
EURJPY |
GBP |
|
EURGBP |
|
EURCHF |
CHF |
EURSEK |
EURNOK |
AUD |
NZD |
CAD |
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
UBS 2019 |
Forecast |
|
12m Forward |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
-8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
-12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
-16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
-20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CNY |
|
|
HKD |
IDR |
INR |
|
KRW |
|
|
MYR |
|
|
PHP |
SGD |
THB |
|
TWD |
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
UBS 2019 |
Forecast |
12m Forward |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
-42 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-52 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CZK |
|
HUF |
|
PLN |
|
|
|
|
RUB |
TRY |
|
|
ZAR |
|
|
|
||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
UBS 2019 |
Forecast |
|
|
12m Forward |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BRL |
|
|
CLP |
|
|
|
COP |
|
|
|
MXN |
|
PEN |
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: UBS, Bloomberg, *As of Nov 14
Global Macro Strategy 19 November 2018 |
98 |