vk.com/id446425943	Week Endnotes
Russia
Equities

Appendix

Figure 4: Operating and earnings reports – 3Q18 (unless stated otherwise)

Company			Earnings data		Report link	Operating data		Report link
			(Beat / In line	/		(Strong / Neutral	/
			Miss)			Weak)
Week 42
Severstal			In line		Severstal – 3Q18 earnings; earnings in line, dividend	Neutral		Severstal – 3Q18 trading update; mixed; downgrade to Hold post
					surprise, of 19 October, by Dmitry Glushakov et al			outperformance, of 11 October, by Dmitry Glushakov et al
Week 43
Novatek*			Beat		Novatek – 3Q18 IFRS; strong, as expected, of 25
					October, by Dmitry Loukashov et al
X5 Retail			In line		X5 Retail Group – 3Q18 IFRS results; robust, of 25	Strong		X5 Retail Group – 3Q18 trading update; solid, of 18 October, by Maria Kolbina
					October, by Maria Kolbina et al			et al
Mail.ru Group			Miss		Mail.ru Group – 3Q18; good growth, margins still on
					the agenda, of 25 October, by Vladimir Bespalov et al
NLMK			Beat		NLMK – 3Q18 earnings; strong outperformance on	Neutral		NLMK – 3Q18 trading update; supportive for earnings, but US tariffs put
					EBITDA, but FCFE in line, of 25 October, by Dmitry			pressure on, of 15 October, by Dmitry Glushakov et al
					Glushakov et al
Week 44
Yandex			Beat		Yandex – 3Q18; well above consensus, of 29 October,
					by Vladimir Bespalov et al
Detsky Mir	-				Detsky Mir – 3Q18 IFRS; robust – continued	Strong		Detsky Mir – 3Q18 trading update; robust, of 18 October, by Maria Kolbina et al
					improvement in profitability, of 29 October, by Maria
					Kolbina et al
Sberbank			Beat		Sberbank – 3Q18 IFRS; solid numbers with surprising
					NIM resilience, of 1 November, by Mikhail Shlemov et
					al
Enel Russia			In line		Enel Russia – Strategic view - to SPO or not to SPO?,
					of 6 November, by Vladimir Sklyar et al
EPAM			Beat		EPAM – 3Q18; positive numbers – and updated
					profitability guidance, of 1 November, by Vladimir
					Bespalov et al
MMK			Beat		MMK – 3Q18 earnings; positive surprise on costs,	Strong		MMK – 3Q18 trading update; robust volumes signal attractive quarterly
					dividends, but capex raised, of 2 November, by Dmitry			dividend, of 16 October, by Dmitry Glushakov et al
					Glushakov et al
Week 45
Rosneft			In line		Rosneft – 3Q18 IFRS; strong tax reliefs, of 7
					November, by Dmitry Loukashov et al
Polyus			In line		Polyus – 3Q18 earnings; better costs and capex,	Neutral		Polyus – 3Q18 trading update; slightly positive, despite delayed Natalka ramp-
					supportive for 2018F, of 7 November, by Dmitry			up, of 16 October, by Dmitry Glushakov et al
					Glushakov et al
MoEx			In line		lMoscow Exchange – 3Q18 IFRS; uninspiring, but well
					in the price, of 7 November, by Mikhail Shlemov et al
Alrosa			In line		Alrosa – 3Q18 earnings; slightly better results, lower	Strong		Alrosa – 3Q18 trading update; positive as price surprise on the upside, of 23
					volumes to be offset by prices, of 8 November, by			October, by Dmitry Glushakov et al
					Dmitry Glushakov et al
TGK-1			In line		TGK-1 – 9mo18 IFRS; profits on track, dividends not in
					sight, of 9 November, by Vladimir Sklyar et al
Week 46
Mosenergo			In line		Mosenergo – 9mo18; here comes the loss, of 13
					November, by Vladimir Sklyar et al
Rusagro			Miss		Rusagro – 3Q18 IFRS; improvements across the	Strong		Rusagro – 3Q18 trading update; robust, of 23 October, by Nikolay Kovalev
					board, of 12 November, by Nikolay Kovalev
Unipro			Miss		Unipro – 3Q18 IFRS; one more year, please, of 13	Weak		Unipro – 9mo18 electricity production down 8.3% YoY, of 23 October, by
					November, by Vladimir Sklyar et al			Vladimir Sklyar et al
Qiwi			Beat		Qiwi – 3Q18; well above consensus, dividends might
					be resumed in 2019, of 15 November, by Vladimir
					Bespalov et al
InterRAO			Beat		Inter RAO – 3Q18 IFRS; all that cash by Vladimir
					Sklyar et al
Acron			14-Nov
Gazprom Neft*			15-Nov
Gazprom*			15-Nov
TMK*			15-Nov			Weak		TMK – 3Q18 operating update; below our expectations – negative – financial
								results are key to watch, of 24 October, by Ekaterina Rodina et al
Luxoft**			Beat		Luxoft – Upgrade to Buy; still facing challenges, but
					recent correction overdone, of 16 November, by
					Vladimir Bespalov et al
Week 47
MTS			20-Nov
Phosagro			22-Nov
Week 48
TCS			26-Nov
Sistema*			27-Nov
Bank St Pet*			23-Nov
Lukoil*			29-Nov
Transneft*			29-Nov
RusHydro			29-Nov			Neutral		RusHydro – electricity production up 5% YoY in 9mo18 – neutral, of 23 October,
								by Vladimir Sklyar et al
Rosseti			29-Nov
Tatneft*			30-Nov
Megafon*			30-Nov
Aeroflot*			30-31 Nov			Strong		Aeroflot – 9mo18 operating data; strong – but 3Q18 still under cost pressure, of
								23 October, by Elena Sakhnova et al

Source: Company data, VTB Capital Research,* - estimated, ** - 2Q19 (ends 30 September 2018)

16 November 2018

13

2018 November 16	Capital VTB Bloomberg, Source:
	Research

14

Wheat Pl Iron ore DXY Corn

S&P500 (US)

MOEX (Russia) Oil, Brent US HY JPY MSCI World

Bovespa (Brazil) USTs (US)

GBP

US IG

EUR EMBI Global CNY Sensex (India) Au Steel CAC 40 PLN

Topix (Japan) Pt Hang Seng (Hong Kong)

Bunds (Germany)

FTSE 100 (UK) Stoxx600 (Europe)

EMFX ASX (Australia)

INR Gilts (UK)

Ni EU Sovereign EU IG Non-Fin IBEX 35 (Spain) BRL EU Fin Sen

Coking coal ZAR RUB MSCI EM Cu Al LME Ag

FTSE-MIB (Italy) BTPs (Italy)

DAX (Germany)

WIG-20 (Poland)

KOSPI (KOREA) TOP-40 (South Africa)

Shanghai Comp (China A) ASE (Greece)

TRY BIST-100 (Turkey)

% YTD, 30% 20% 10% 0% 10%- 20%- 30%- 40%- 50%-

returns currency Local Commodities Equities Corp Bonds, Govt Bonds, FX

Pl

BIST-100 (Turkey)

Bovespa (Brazil)

Iron ore

TRY

MOEX (Russia)

Pt

Cu

BRL

ZAR

Au

RUB

DXY

Corn

LME

GBP

EMFX

Shanghai Comp (China A)

EUR

Gilts (UK)

USTs (US)

CNY

EMBI Global

PLN

US HY

Bunds (Germany)

BTPs (Italy)

EU Sovereign

JPY

EU Fin Sen

Hang Seng (Hong Kong)

US IG

WIG-20 (Poland)

EU IG Non-Fin

INR

Ag

MSCI EM

S&P500 (US)

IBEX 35 (Spain)

TOP-40 (South Africa)

MSCI World

Al

Topix (Japan)

Oil, Brent

FTSE 100 (UK)

Steel

ASX (Australia)

Stoxx600 (Europe)

CAC 40

KOSPI (KOREA)

DAX (Germany)

FTSE-MIB (Italy)

Sensex (India)

Wheat

ASE (Greece)

Bitcoin

Ni

% 3M, 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5%- 10%- 15%- 20%-

returns currency Local Commodities Equities Corp Bonds, Govt Bonds, FX

BIST-100 (Turkey) Pl Sensex (India)

Hang Seng (Hong Kong) TRY KOSPI (KOREA) ZAR

TOP-40 (South Africa) Shanghai Comp (China A)

Cu

INR Iron ore MSCI EM

IBEX 35 (Spain) LME WIG-20 (Poland) EMFX Corn PLN

MOEX (Russia)

S&P500 (US) Pt Wheat

MSCI World Bunds (Germany)

CNY

GBP USTs (US)

Ag

EUR

Au EU Fin Sen EU Sovereign EU IG Non-Fin Coking coal Gilts (UK) DXY BTPs (Italy)

EMBI Global JPY RUB

FTSE-MIB (Italy)

DAX (Germany) US IG Stoxx600 (Europe) ASX (Australia) US HY FTSE 100 (UK) CAC 40 Al

Topix (Japan) BRL ASE (Greece) Ni Steel

Bovespa (Brazil) Oil, Brent

15%-	10%-	5%-	0%			5%							% MTD, 10%

returns currency Local Commodities Equities Corp Bonds, Govt Bonds, FX

Pl

BIST-100 (Turkey)

Shanghai Comp (China A)

RUB

Hang Seng (Hong Kong)

Cu

TRY

Sensex (India)

MOEX (Russia)

INR

Ag

ZAR

LME

EMFX

Au

MSCI EM

JPY

USTs (US)

Wheat

KOSPI (KOREA)

DXY

Bunds (Germany)

CNY

Coking coal

Steel

EUR

EU Sovereign

PLN

EU IG Non-Fin

EU Fin Sen

EMBI Global

Corn

US IG

IBEX 35 (Spain)

BTPs (Italy)

Bovespa (Brazil)

Iron ore

BRL

TOP-40 (South Africa)

US HY

GBP

Al

Pt

DAX (Germany)

CAC 40

FTSE-MIB (Italy)

MSCI World

S&P500 (US)

Ni

Stoxx600 (Europe)

ASE (Greece)

Topix (Japan)

FTSE 100 (UK)

ASX (Australia)

Gilts (UK)

Oil, Brent

WIG-20 (Poland)

% WTD, 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1%- 2%- 3%- 4%- 5%-

Selected 5:Figure

Bonds, Govt Bonds, FX

12M and YTD MTD, WTD, returns, total assets, global

Corp

Equities

Commodities

returns currency Local

Equities	.vk
	com/id446425943
	Russia

Endnotes Week

2018 November 16	VTB Bloomberg, Source:
	Research Capital

15

50%-	0%	50%	100%	150%	%, YTD,
EVR LN					USD
NVTK LI
TATN RX
TATNp RX
SIBN RX
ROSN RX
BANEp RX
LKOH RX
ALRS RX
SNGSp RX
GLTR LI
EPAM US
CHMF RX
AKRN RX
AGRO LI
NLMK RX
GAZP RX
AVAZ RX
GMKN RX
MAGN RX
IRAO RX
RTKM RX
PIKK RX
UPRO RX
MFON LI
TCS LI
MBT
MAIL LI
YNDX US
TGKA RX
FEES RX
PHOR LI
HGM LN					Regulated
PLZL RX
SNGS RX
TRNFP RX
DSKY RX
SBERp RX
NMTP RX					Financials
MVID RX
QIWI US
SBER RX
POLY LN
VEON
TMKS LI					Tradeables
BANE RX
LSRG LI
MOEX RX
RSTI RX
VTBR RX
ETLN LI					Non
ENRU RX
POG LN					-
					tradeables
AFLT RX
OGKB RX
HYDR RX
OKEY LI
FIVE LI
GLPR LI					Resources
MSNG RX
LNTA LI
SVAV RX
LXFT US
SSA LI
MTL US					RUB
MDMG LI
MGNT LI					returns
486 HK
ENPL RX

NMTP RX POLY LN EVR LN HGM LN GMKN RX NVTK LI MTL US TATNp RX SIBN RX ALRS RX TRNFP RX BANEp RX MBT MAIL LI LKOH RX ENPL RX PLZL RX NLMK RX GAZP RX PIKK RX SBERp RX MAGN RX DSKY RX TATN RX SBER RX

SNGSp RX PHOR LI UPRO RX 486 HK CHMF RX AKRN RX RSTI RX ROSN RX RTKM RX QIWI US AGRO LI AVAZ RX TGKA RX FEES RX ETLN LI BANE RX VEON FIVE LI IRAO RX OGKB RX MVID RX SNGS RX ENRU RX GLTR LI MOEX RX SSA LI TCS LI AFLT RX YNDX US EPAM US VTBR RX MFON LI POG LN LSRG LI MGNT LI MSNG RX HYDR RX SVAV RX GLPR LI LNTA LI TMKS LI OKEY LI LXFT US MDMG LI

40%-	30%-	20%-	10%-	0%			10%								20%									30%	%, 3M, 40%
																									USD

returns RUB Resources tradeables-Non Tradeables Financials Regulated

NMTP RX ENPL RX 486 HK QIWI US MTL US RSTI RX LSRG LI ENRU RX VTBR RX MOEX RX GMKN RX SBERp RX SBER RX EPAM US MBT POLY LN NVTK LI AGRO LI PLZL RX AFLT RX TATNp RX BANEp RX SSA LI HGM LN NLMK RX EVR LN OKEY LI SNGS RX FIVE LI MFON LI BANE RX AKRN RX RTKM RX TCS LI VEON UPRO RX DSKY RX AVAZ RX ALRS RX LNTA LI MGNT LI GLTR LI MVID RX SNGSp RX PHOR LI CHMF RX TGKA RX FEES RX IRAO RX PIKK RX SIBN RX MAGN RX TRNFP RX GAZP RX LKOH RX MAIL LI HYDR RX YNDX US OGKB RX GLPR LI SVAV RX TMKS LI TATN RX ETLN LI ROSN RX POG LN MSNG RX MDMG LI LXFT US

25%-	20%-	15%-	10%-	5%-	0%	5%					10%						15%	%, MTD, 20%
																		USD

returns RUB Resources tradeables-Non Tradeables Financials Regulated

QIWI US

MTL US

AFLT RX ENRU RX NMTP RX MOEX RX VTBR RX ENPL RX

LSRG LI SBER RX NVTK LI ETLN LI POLY LN RSTI RX SBERp RX YNDX US NLMK RX AKRN RX SIBN RX RTKM RX 486 HK TCS LI GLTR LI AVAZ RX MVID RX PIKK RX GAZP RX LNTA LI BANE RX OKEY LI MBT GMKN RX OGKB RX DSKY RX SNGSp RX BANEp RX AGRO LI TGKA RX FEES RX MAGN RX PLZL RX SNGS RX UPRO RX TRNFP RX CHMF RX TATNp RX SVAV RX IRAO RX MAIL LI VEON FIVE LI PHOR LI MFON LI HYDR RX SSA LI ALRS RX HGM LN LKOH RX MGNT LI TMKS LI MSNG RX EPAM US EVR LN GLPR LI TATN RX POG LN ROSN RX MDMG LI LXFT US

25%-	20%-		15%-	10%-	5%-					0%			5%										10%				15%	USD %, WTD, 20%	Selected 6:Figure
																												Tradeables Financials Regulated	12M and YTD MTD, WTD, returns, total stocks, Russia
																												tradeables-Non
																												Resources
																												returns RUB

Equities	.vk
	com/id446425943
	Russia

Endnotes Week

vk.com/id446425943		Week Endnotes
	Russia
	Equities
	Figure 7: VTB Capital’s coverage universe
	BUY (Currency, Price, TP, upside, NTM DY*)	HOLD (Currency, Price, TP, upside, NTM DY*)	SELL (Currency, Price, TP, upside, NTM DY*)
		ENERGY

TMKS LI (USD, 3.54, 6.10, +72%, 5.8% ) TRNFP RX (RUB, 170,750, 225,000, +32%, 6.6% )

GAZP RX (USD, 2.34, 2.90, +24%, 5.5% ) TUPRS TI (TRY, 122, 132, +8%, 9.9% )

AYGAZ TI (TRY, 11.48, 15.00, +31%, 15.7% ) HMSG LI (USD, 8.20, 11.00, +34%, 11.1% ) LKOH RX (USD, 73.70, 85.00, +15%, 4.8% )

SIBN RX (USD, 5.67, 6.10, +8%, 8.9% ) NOG LN (GBp, 190, 217, +14%, 0% )

SNGS RX (USD, 0.4128, 0.4200, +2%, 2.4% )

TATN RX (USD, 11.42, 11.00, -4%, 7.0% ) TRCAS TI (TRY, 1.42, 1.40, -1%, 2.7% ) NVTK LI (USD, 178, 100, -44%, 1.7% )

			FERTILIZERS
	PHOR LI (USD, 13.04, 17.00, +30%, 5.0% )		ICL IT (ILS, 2,322, 2,350, +1%, 3.3% )
			AKRN RX (RUB, 4,584, 4,400, -4%, 6.8% )
			CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
	STCM LN (GBp, 28.00, 33.00, +18%, 7.5% )		AKCNS TI (TRY, 7.20, 8.00, +11%, 11.1% )
			CIMSA TI (TRY, 7.63, 8.00, +5%, 3.6% )
			METALS & MINING
	PLZL LI (USD, 33.05, 52.00, +57%, 7.2% )		SVST LI (USD, 15.45, 17.00, +10%, 11.0% )		EVR LN (GBp, 547, 450, -18%, 10.2% )
	ALRS RX (RUB, 102, 130, +27%, 14.6% )		HGM LN (GBp, 148, 150, +1%, 3.8% )
	MNOD LI (USD, 17.65, 22.80, +29%, 13.1% )		NLMK LI (USD, 24.77, 23.50, -5%, 11.2% )
	MMK LI (USD, 9.29, 12.00, +29%, 12.1% )
	POLY LN (GBp, 738, 840, +14%, 6.0% )
			TRANSPORTATION
	GLPR LI (USD, 2.38, 5.00, +110%, 0% )		NCSP LI (USD, 7.80, 10.00, +28%, 7.2% )
	GLTR LI (USD, 9.84, 14.50, +47%, 13.9% )
	GPH LN (GBp, 482, 650, +35%, 7.8% )
	THYAO TI (TRY, 16.18, 22.50, +39%, 0% )
	AFLT RX (RUB, 103, 130, +26%, 5.0% )
			AUTOS

TOASO TI (TRY, 17.22, 30.00, +74%, 10.3% ) FROTO TI (TRY, 53.85, 70.00, +30%, 7.4% )

DOAS TI (TRY, 4.35, 5.50, +26%, 0% ) SVAV RX (RUB, 433, 500, +15%, 0% )

			CONSUMER
	MDMG LI (USD, 5.10, 10.00, +96%, 3.1% )		GHG LN (GBp, 235, 260, +11%, 0% )
	FIVE LI (USD, 24.20, 39.00, +61%, 5.1% )		DPEU LN (GBp, 124, 100, -19%, 0% )
	DSKY RX (RUB, 90.32, 130.00, +44%, 10.0% )
	EUR PW (PLN, 19.05, 27.00, +42%, 7.0% )
	LNTA LI (USD, 3.58, 5.00, +40%, 0% )
	OKEY LI (USD, 1.62, 2.10, +30%, 4.9% )
	AGRO LI (USD, 10.48, 13.50, +29%, 4.4% )
	AEFES TI (TRY, 20.02, 25.00, +25%, 4.2% )
			FINANCIALS
	HSBK LI (USD, 11.00, 20.00, +82%, 9.9% )		KOMB CK (CZK, 909, 1,000, +10%, 5.6% )
	SBER RX (RUB, 200, 330, +65%, 9.4% )		SPL PW (PLN, 355, 380, +7%, 1.6% )
	TCS LI (USD, 16.82, 28.00, +66%, 7.1% )		PKO PW (PLN, 40.32, 43.00, +7%, 1.8% )
	MOEX RX (RUB, 93.96, 140.00, +49%, 12.3% )		TBCG LN (GBp, 1,646, 1,700, +3%, 5.0% )
	YKBNK TI (TRY, 1.63, 2.70, +66%, 0% )
	ISCTR TI (TRY, 4.05, 6.20, +53%, 7.3% )
	PEO PW (PLN, 105, 150, +43%, 8.2% )
	BSPB RX (RUB, 48.72, 69.00, +42%, 5.5% )
	ALR PW (PLN, 53.55, 80.00, +49%, 0% )
	VAKBN TI (TRY, 3.63, 5.30, +46%, 1.4% )
	BGEO LN (GBp, 1,596, 2,000, +25%, 5.0% )
	AKBNK TI (TRY, 7.20, 8.60, +19%, 3.9% )
	HALKB TI (TRY, 7.09, 8.50, +20%, 2.1% )
	GARAN TI (TRY, 7.82, 9.00, +15%, 4.7% )
	OTP HB (HUF, 11,390, 13,200, +16%, 2.4% )
			TECHNOLOGY
	QIWI US (USD, 14.44, 25.00, +73%, 2.5% )		MAIL LI (USD, 26.62, 30.00, +13%, 0% )
	LXFT US (USD, 33.30, 50.00, +50%, 0% )		EPAM US (USD, 126, 135, +7%, 0% )
			ELECTRIC UTILITIES
	IRAO RX (RUB, 3.98, 8.40, +111%, 4.2% )				MSNG RX (RUB, 1.77, 1.55, -12%, 6.8% )
	OGKB RX (RUB, 0.3394, 0.6000, +77%, 6.0% )				RSTI RX (RUB, 0.7235, 0.0800, -89%, 1.7% )
	HYDR RX (RUB, 0.5416, 0.9000, +66%, 9.3% )
	TGKA RX (RUB, 0.0086, 0.0130, +51%, 7.3% )
	SWDY EC (EGP, 16.84, 22.80, +35%, 7.3% )
	FEES RX (RUB, 0.1531, 0.1900, +24%, 11.6% )
	ENRU RX (RUB, 1.15, 1.40, +22%, 11.9% )
	UPRO RX (RUB, 2.74, 3.16, +15%, 8.1% )
			REAL ESTATE
	LSRG LI (USD, 1.94, 3.70, +91%, 12.2% )		PIKK RX (RUB, 354, 400, +13%, 3.7% )
	ETLN LI (USD, 2.13, 3.50, +64%, 9.2% )

Source: VTB Capital Research, Bloomberg

A more comprehensive overview of the equity markets, and in particular those stocks in the VTB Capital coverage universe, can be found in our Morning Comment, published every weekday. Prices as of 15 November 2018 close

* - NTM DY – next 12 months dividend yield

16 November 2018

16