- •Investment Case 11
- •Valuation summary 37
- •Investment case 53
- •Investment Case
- •Companies Compared Stock data
- •Key metrics
- •Per ha comparison
- •Management credibility
- •Market Overview Summary
- •Ukraine in global context Ukraine produces 2-3% of world soft commodities
- •Sunflower oil, corn, wheat, barley and rapeseed are Ukraine’s key soft commodities to export
- •Ukraine is 8th in arable land globally
- •Key inputs used in crop farming Ukraine`s climate favorable for low-cost agriculture
- •Soil fertility map
- •Machinery use far below developed countries
- •Land trade moratorium makes more benefits
- •Fertilizer use
- •Inputs prices: lease cost is Ukraine’s key cost advantage
- •Case study: Production costs in Ukraine vs. Brazil for corn and soybean
- •Farming Efficiency Ukrainian crop yields lag the eu and us, on par with Argentina and Brazil, above Russia’s
- •5Y average yields, t/ha and their respective 10y cagRs
- •Yields at a premium in Ukraine on the company level
- •Growth Growth should come from yield improvement, crop structure reshuffle and acreage increase
- •Crop structure is gradually shifting to more profitable cultures
- •Combined crop structure of listed companies
- •Ukraine`s 2012 harvest outlook
- •Valuation
- •Valuation summary
- •Valuation summary
- •Asset-based approach
- •Asset-based valuation
- •Valuation premium/discount summary
- •Location matters: Value of land by region
- •Yields efficiency comparing to benchmark region
- •Cost efficiency
- •Adding supplementary businesses
- •Valuation summary for other assets
- •Cost of equity assumptions
- •Model assumptions
- •Landbank growth capped at 30%
- •Crop structure
- •Biological revaluation (ias 41) excluded
- •Land ownership
- •Company Profiles Agroton a high cost producer
- •Investment case
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Agroton in six charts
- •Operati
- •Industrial Milk Company Corn story
- •Investment case
- •A focus on the corn explains high margins
- •Location favourable for corn
- •Well on track with ipo proceeds
- •Weak ebitda margin in 2012 explained by non-cash items
- •Valuation
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Ksg Agro On the road to space/Not ready to be public
- •Investment Case
- •A 5x yoy boost in total assets looks strange to us
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Ksg Agro in six charts
- •Mcb Agricole Acquisition target with lack of positives for minorities
- •Investment Case
- •Inventories balance, usd mln
- •Overview of acquisitions of public farming companies in Ukraine
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement, usd mln
- •Mcb Agricole in six charts
- •Mriya Too sweet to be true
- •Investment Case
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Mriya in six charts
- •Sintal Agriculture
- •Investment Case
- •25% Yoy cost reduction in 2011 should improve margins
- •Irrigation is a growth option
- •Inventory balance, usd mln
- •Valuation
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Sintal Agriculture in six charts
- •Astarta Sugar maker
- •Kernel Grain trader actively integrating upstream
- •Poultry producer
- •Appendices Land value
- •Current landowner income capitalization model
- •Farmer income capitalization model
- •Normative value
- •Biological asset revaluation
- •How do we adjust the income statement to be on a cost basis?
- •Ias 41 application summary
- •Appendix: Crop production schedule Crop schedule, based on 2012 harvesting year
- •Investment ratings
- •Contacts
Companies Compared Stock data
Farming stock universe |
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Ticker |
Landbank, total, ths ha |
Owned |
Planted in 2011 |
Cropped as % of total land |
Share of farming in revenues |
MCap, USD mln |
ADT, 3M, USD mln |
ADT, 12M, USD mln |
Ukraine, pure farmers |
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Agrogeneration |
ALAGR FP |
51 |
- |
n/a |
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Agroton |
AGT PW |
171 |
- |
109.0 |
81% |
72% |
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Sintal Agriculture |
SNPS GR |
145 |
- |
83.1 |
84% |
100% |
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MCB Agricole |
4GW1 GR |
90 |
- |
82.4 |
92% |
100% |
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Mriya |
MAYA GR |
295 |
- |
240.0 |
94% |
100% |
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Industrial Milk Company |
IMC PW |
60 |
- |
33.1 |
79% |
74% |
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KSG Agro |
KSG PW |
59 |
- |
32.3 |
96% |
100% |
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Ukraine, processors involved in farming |
- |
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Astarta |
AST PW |
247 |
- |
197.0 |
96% |
42% |
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Kernel |
KER PW |
210 |
- |
183.1 |
87% |
7% |
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MHP |
MHPC LI |
280 |
- |
250.2 |
89% |
18% |
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Russia |
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Alpcot Agro* |
ALPA SS |
281 |
100.0 |
142.3 |
51% |
84% |
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Black Earth Farming |
BEFSDB SS |
318 |
260.0 |
227.7 |
72% |
94% |
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Trigon Agri* |
TAGR SS |
194 |
117.8 |
88.0 |
50% |
76% |
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457.9 |
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Brasil |
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SLC Agricola SA |
SLCE3 BZ |
332 |
257 |
250 |
75% |
84% |
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Brasilagro |
AGRO3 BZ |
180 |
180 |
71 |
39% |
100% |
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321.2 |
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Argentina |
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23% |
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Cresud |
CRES AR |
681 |
484 |
338 |
50% |
50% |
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Adecoagro |
AGRO US |
431 |
296 |
220 |
51% |
72% |
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*Has some operations in Ukraine
Source: Company data, Concorde Capital, Bloomberg
3M performance |
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6M performance |
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12M performance |
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Source: Bloomberg |
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Source: Bloomberg |
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Source: Bloomberg |