SubSeven), Code Red, and SNMP/ASN.1 bonanzas of mid-2001 and early 2002. OK, this is where I go so far out on a limb. It isn't funny, but a large number of these machines are Windows, and lately there has been some evidence that Microsoft really cares. I think that seeing 180,000 IIS web servers switch to (mostly) Apache in the months after Code Red really got their attention.

∙ Follow the money! The money is primarily going into the defensive side of the house. The attacker community is demonstrating a lot of ingenuity, but as lower cost, easy-to-configure security appliances come on to the market, and security training that really works becomes available, there will be less low hanging fruit. Attacking will become less fun and less common, and it will be easier to shun sites that do not stop bad behavior.

Money really is the interesting question. It seems logical to assume that if you are investing in security, it will make a difference. However, February 13, 2002, the United States Office of Management and Budget (OMB) released a report 2002-05,

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg/fy01securityactreport.pdf, on federal information security. The report, to

no one's surprise, outlined a number of shortcomings including the following:

∙Inadequate senior management attention

∙Ineffective security education and awareness

∙Improper security practices by outside contractors

∙Inadequate detection and reporting of vulnerabilities

However, the most significant finding in the report was there was no detectable correlation between the amount of money invested in information security and the results. Further, they did not even consider the importance of good tools other than in some discussion about capital expenditure. In the near future, if we are able to invest the money we have available wisely on skills development and apply some good process when deciding which tools to purchase, I think we will make some significant forward progress.

Skills Versus Tools

The interest in the topic of intrusion detection is still on the rise. SANS offered the first Intrusion Detection Immersion Curriculum in March 2000 and not only was it sold out, would-be analysts really turned to some high-end social engineering trying to get a seat. Today, we offer the current hands-on, six-day intrusion-detection track somewhere in the world every week. That is a demonstration of the demand, and it is fueled by a desire to learn how to do intrusion detection. Would-be analysts are learning all the things that you learned in this book: bit masking, basic analysis skills, and how to write filters, all the atomic skills that prepare one to do intrusion detection.

At the same time, companies are working to build better and better tools. It is fairly clear at this point that you cannot build an IDS that does not require a skilled operator. The one commercial company that tried to make an easy-to-use GUI as number one priority gets a lot of sales, but many companies that buy their products are replacing them a year later. As we move forward, it looks like the balance will swing to tools designed to allow an analyst to use her skills.

Analysts Skill Set

Intrusion-detection systems have the same problem as anti-virus software: New attacks are not detected because there is no signature for them. But the problem is worse because so few signatures have been defined for NIDS, still less than 2,000 decent signatures, compared with the 30,000 or more for antivirus. There are natural limitations of signature-based network intrusion-detection systems, and to be effective, I recommend coping strategies like a box recording all traffic. That way, it is possible to go back after the NID alerts and examine the stimulus that lead to the activity reported by the NID. I also like to keep a cache of at least several days of raw data, so if I get lucky and detect something I have a way of checking to see if there was previous activity. Today, an analyst needs the ability to write a filter to run these types of searches. In the future, as console solutions are fielded, it might be possible to do much of this with canned searches, but even with relational databases, an analyst might have to be able to describe the search he needs in SQL.

Companies are realizing they need skilled people. Even in the economic downturn of 2001, SANS was still running class after class and most of the classes were full. Companies are even requiring certification when they are looking to hire. At first, this was laudable, but depressing, "IDS Analyst needed, must be able to write IDS rules, interpret hex, and hold a current CISSP certification." Arrrg, please do not interpret this as a slam against the Certified Information System Security Professions (CISSP), but the CISSP certainly does not certify a person to run an IDS or configure a firewall or to do any other technical task. However, companies are learning fast, and recently the Foote survey echoed the earlier Gartner survey that showed Global Information Assurance Certifications (GIAC) certifications contributed to a higher salary and a higher chance of employment. The tools are getting better, but for the next few years at least—and I expect forever—nothing replaces a skilled analyst.

The rapid emergence of personal firewalls is already a major defensive force, although we need to find easy ways to harness this data. They range from the load-and-forget Symantec Internet Security, which combines anti-virus with lightweight protection and detection, to BlackIce, which can log packets for analysis. These folks have essentially solved that old host-based problem, the effort of deployment! Security conscious employees take it on themselves to install personal firewalls at work and at home; if they bother reporting, they become valuable sensor inputs. There are automated tools like Dshield, www.dshield.org, to take the data from these systems and examine it for trend information. Network-based NIDS are still being deployed at a good rate as well. It is easier to get someone to stick two boxes on her network than to get her to even think about adding a nonproduction, cycle-consuming, software layer to all the hosts in her network. When I analyze what it takes to do a really effective job of intrusion detection, the advantages of personal firewalls on the host computers of security-aware employees are enormous and really add to the network-based data. So, it is no surprise that we are coming to the age of the console, the database driven system that normalizes NID data with firewall, personal firewall, anti-virus, and potentially other data such as syslog reports, and gives us a better view of what is going on in our networks defensively than we have ever had.

Improved Tools

These new consoles have a number of forms. Some of them are advanced log watchers like Big Brother (www.bb4.com) and NetIQ (www.netiq.com); content analysis tools like SilentRunner (www.silentrunner.com); and correlation engines tools like netForensics (www.netforensics.com), ISS SiteProtector (www.iss.net), and Intellitactics NSM (www.intellitactics.com). This is just the tip of the iceberg. I know of a number of companies that are racing to unveil products including the Sourcefire OpenSnort console (www.sourcefire.com) that uses the high performance database tool

named barnyard that was developed by Andrew Baker. As they start to really compete and we go through the rounds of reviews and bakeoffs, we should end up with some very usable tools. The good news is that there are factors that should serve to slow the rate of improvement for attacker tools.

Companies have been buying tools all along, but they are not getting the kind of quality they deserve for the money they spend. We mentioned a commercial IDS earlier that many companies, a year after they install it, are replacing. What is wrong with this picture? Obviously, the company has a world class marketing program, but how have we as a community allowed a sensor that doesn't even record the TCP code bits to exist for so many years, to waste so many organizations' time and money? The good news is it looks like the next release will be credible, but we need to demand tools that work.

The competition in the network intrusion detection arena is funny. You don't have to be an industry insider to quickly realize that Ron Gula with Dragon, Robert Graham with BlackIce, now RealSecure and Marty Roesch with Snort are not just brilliant, they are really invested mentally and emotionally in their products. In the background is the very capable Kevin Zeise on the Cisco team. He might not be as visible as the others in the field, but he is the kind of guy that runs four miles in the morning, eats two pieces of key lime pie for breakfast, rolls out a new product line by lunch, and then saves the world from the latest cyber catastrophe before retiring for the evening. He is fully capable of running with the IDS pack. The various mailing list and conference battles are great entertainment, but they also serve a purpose. In a world of marketing and lies, these three folks, at least for now, are seriously committed to building the best tool they can. Who will win? It isn't something one person can do, it will be the best team. So in the spirit of predicting the future, back out onto a limb I go:

∙Enterasys is having some problems right now with the SEC and has had cash flow problems for a while. Stock options aren't as much of a motivator when you drop from 11 to 4 in a single day, so watch for some bailouts of brainy engineers that want another shot at making a million dollars. I like Dragon and particularly like some of their network gear but don't think I want in for more than a 100 shares—too likely to become wallpaper. So, I think Dragon could have been a contender, but the SEC probably banged them too hard for them to compete in this neck-and-neck field.

∙ISS and Robert Graham have to be the odds-on favorite in early 2002. The ISS management team is good, the marketing team better, and the X-Force side of the house has been solid for years. There were a lot of things I liked about BlackIce that Robert could build into RealSecure in his sleep. There is no doubt in my mind that, short of burning out or getting hit by a bus, Robert will produce a sensor to be reckoned with. The question is whether they will be able to build or integrate with a great console. As I write this, SiteProtector is just too new to be evaluated, but it has to work for ISS to shine because they have bet heavily on entering the managed services market, and they need this tool to do it. My prediction is that the answer will come down to the skills versus tools argument. If they build their console so that it helps a skilled worker be all she can be, I think ISS can win against everyone except Cisco. If they build a console that has a philosophy of "sit here and if you see a red triangle, call me," I think they will lose any chance at market credibility.

∙Cisco developed a strategy years ago of moving intrusion detection into the network. The Catalyst 6000 and the Policy Feature Card is going to give TopLayer, the darling of the gotta go fast intrusion analyst, a serious run for the money. This call is a no brainer. High-end sites with high-value assets are going to go Cisco. My money is