Практические задания.

Задание 1. Переведите текст из учебника на русский язык, обратите внимание на расхождение между английской и русской терминологией.

TWO KINDS OF STATISTICS

You probably already know something about statistics. If you read newspapers, watch the news on television, or follow sports, then you see and hear the word statistics frequently. In this section we will use familiar examples such as baseball statistics and voter polls to introduce the two major types of statistics: descriptive statistics and inferential statistics.

Each spring in the late 1940s, the major-league baseball season was officially opened when President Harry S Truman threw out the “first ball” of the season at the opening game of the Washington Senators. Both President Truman and the Washington Senators had reason tо be interested in statistics. Consider, for instance, the year 1948.

EXAMPLE 1.1 Descriptive Statistics

In 1948 the Washington Senators played 153 games, winning 56 and losing 97. They finished seventh in the American League and were led in hitting by Bud Stewart, whose batting average was .279. These and many other statistics were compiled by baseball statisticians who took the complete records for each game of the season and organized that large mass of information effectively and efficiently.

Although baseball fans take baseball statistics for granted, а great deal of time and effort is required to gather and organize them. Moreover, without such statistics, baseball would be much harder to understand. For instance, picture yourself trying to select the best hitter in the American League with only the official score sheets for each game. (More than 600 games were played in 1948; the best hitter was Ted Williams, who led the league with а batting average of .369)

The work of baseball statisticians provides an excellent illustration of descriptive statistics. А formal definition of the term descriptive statistics is presented in Definition 1.1.

DEFINITION 1.1 Descriptive Statistics

Descriptive statistics consists of methods for organizing and summarizing information.

Descriptive statistics includes the construction of graphs, charts, and tables, and the calculation of various descriptive measures such as averages, measures of variation, and percentiles. We will discuss descriptive statistics in detail in Chapters 2 and 3.

As we said, descriptive statistics is one of the two major types of statistics. The other major type, inferential statistics, is illustrated in Example 1.2.

EXAMPLE 1.2 Inferential Statistics

In the fall of 1948, President Truman was also concerned about statistics. The Gallup Poll taken just prior to the election predicted that he would win only 44.5% of the vote and be defeated by the Republican nominee, Thomas Е. Dewey. But this time the statisticians had predicted incorrectly. Truman won more than 49% of the vote and with it the presidency. The Gallup Organization modified some of its procedures and has correctly predicted the winner ever since.

Political polling provides an example of inferential statistics. It would be expensive and unrealistic to interview all Americans on their voting preferences. Statisticians whо wish tо gauge the sentiment of the entire population of U.S. voters can afford to interview only а carefully chosen group of а few thousand voters. This group is referred to as а sample of the population. Statisticians analyze the information obtained from а sample of the voting population to make inferences (draw conclusions) about the preferences of the entire voting population. Inferential statistics provides methods for making such inferences.

The terminology introduced in the context of political polling is used in general in statistics. Specifically, we have the following definitions. See also Fig. 1.1 at the top of the next page.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF STATISTICS

According to the Dictionary of Scientific Biography, '"Тhe word ‘Statistik’, first printed in 1672, meant Staatswissenschaft, or, rather, а science concerning the states. It was cultivated at the German universities, where it consisted of more or less systematically collecting ‘state curiosities’ rather than quantitative material.”

As we know, the modern science of statistics is much broader than just collecting "state curiosities" and includes both descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. Historically, descriptive statistics appeared first. Censuses were taken as long ago as Roman times. Over the years, records of such things as births, deaths, marriages, and taxes have led naturally to the development of descriptive statistics.

Inferential statistics is а newer arrival. Major developments began to occur with the research of Karl Pearson (1857 — 1936) and Ronald Fisher (1890 — 1962), who published their results in the early years of the twentieth century. Since the work of Pearson and Fisher, inferential statistics has evolved rapidly and is now applied in many fields. In fact, an understanding of the basic concepts of inferential statistics has become mandatory for virtually every professional.

Familiarity with statistics will also help you make more sense of many things you read in newspapers and magazines and on the Internet. For instance, in the description of the Sports Illustrated baseball test (Example 1.4), it may have struck you as unreasonable that а sample of only 85 baseballs could be used to draw а conclusion about а population of roughly 360,000 baseballs. By the time you have completed Chapter 9, you will understand why such inferences are not unreasonable.

Задание 2. Определите стиль текста, его особенности. Переведите на русский язык.

Management information

Information is at the heart of management decisions and statistics are one of the most important elements in the information flows available to management. In terms of classical economics а company brings together three elements: land, labour and capital. In the early 20th century а fourth element was added — organisation. Today information is very definitely not only the fifth element, but also the one that binds all the others together.

Management information can conveniently be divided into internal and external. The data generated internally to control the company and the data derived externally that positions а company in its market environment.

Expenditure on management information is vast. Externally, business information is а multi-billion pound market. Internally, up to ten per cent of а typical firm’s turnover is allocated tо collecting and analyzing information. Statistics only form part of this information flow, but а very important part. The last fifty years has seen an internal management information revolution with the transition from purely financial accounting to highly detailed management accounts that measure all aspects of а company's operations — research and development, production, sales, advertising, direct mail, exhibitions. All are subject to detailed analysis — what they cost, what revenue they generate, and the effect on profits. This vast flow of information is enshrined in budgets and plans for every part of the company. The use of external data lags behind. Companies still tend to measure their performance by internal accounting ratios — profit on sales, profit on investment, profit per employee, profit on shareholders funds. Few follow through to the most objective of all measurements — the extent to which а company has taken advantage of the opportunities open to it. This leads tо the key question that this chapter seeks to answer,

Has the company out performed or under performed the market?

This question breaks down into several sub questions, which underlie competitiveness. They are developed in the following paragraphs where we consider:

• the characteristics of the demand for business statistics;

• the types of decision for which those statistics are used;

• the information required to underpin decisions;

• the role of official statistics and the methods by which those statistics can be made more relevant by utilising internal company data.

CHARACTERISTICS

А number of aspects of information is worth noting in passing before we consider decisions in depth. These fall into two main categories, variations between sectors and the importance of the decision under consideration, but there are also other factors to consider.

Variations between sectors

There are sectors in which external information flows are an essential part of the day-tо-day operations and profitability. For stockbrokers and commodity traders, external information is one of their main factors of production, so expenditure on market information is high. In the fast moving consumer goods sector advertising and sales promotion is а major expenditure item, and market research an essential part of monitoring the effectiveness of that expenditure in terms of its impact on market share. The majority of firms in manufacturing industry however operate in small markets which cannot justify routine high levels of expenditure on market information, so are dependent on low cost sources such as official statistics.

Задание 3. Переведите текст из учебника на русский язык, ориентируясь на стиль переводящего языка.

THE GAINS AND LOSSES OF AN IMPORTING COUNTRY

Now suppose that the domestic price before trade is above the world price. Once again, after free trade is allowed, the domestic price must be equal to the world price. As Figure 9-4 shows, the domestic quantity supplied is less than the domestic quantity demanded. The difference between the domestic quantity demanded and the domestic quantity supplied is bought from other countries, and Isoland becomes a steel importer.

Figure 9-4

International Trade in an

Importing Country. Once

trade is allowed, the domestic

price falls to equal the world

price. The supply curve

shows the amount produced

domestically, and the

demand curve shows the

amount consumed

domestically. Imports equal

t

0

he difference between the

domestic quantity

demanded and the domestic

quantity supplied at the world

price.

In this case, the horizontal line at the world price represents the supply of the rest of the world. This supply curve is perfectly elastic because Isoland is a small economy and, therefore, can buy as much steel as it wants at the world price.

Now consider the gains and losses from trade. Once again, not everyone benefits. When trade forces the domestic price to fall, domestic consumers are better off (they can now buy steel at a lower price), and domestic producers are worse off (they now have to sell steel at a lower price). Changes in consumer and producer surplus measure the size of the gains and losses, as shown in Figure 9-5 and Table 9-2. Before trade, consumer surplus is area A, producer surplus is area B + C, and total surplus area is A + B +C. After trade is allowed, consumer surplus is area A + B +D, producer surplus is area C, and the total surplus is area A + B + C + D.

Figure 9-5

How Free Trade Affects Welfare in an Importing

Country. When the domestic price falls to equal

the world

price, buyers are better off

(consumer surplus rises from A

to A + B + D), and sellers are

worse off (producer surplus

falls from B + C to C). Total

surplus rises by an amount

equal to area D, indicating that

trade raises the economic

well-being of the country as a whole.

	Before Trade	After Trade	Change
Consumer surplus	A	A + B + C	+(B+D)
Producer surplus	B+C	C	-B
Total surplus	A+B+C	A+B+C+D	+D

Table 9-2

Changes in Welfare from Free Trade: The Case of an Importing Country. The table

examines changes in

economic welfare resulting

from opening up a market to international trade.

Letters refer to the regions marked in Figure 9-5.

These welfare calculations show who wins and who loses from trade in an importing country. Buyers benefit because consumer surplus increases by the area B + D. Sellers are worse off because producer surplus falls by the area B. The gains of buyers exceed the losses of sellers, and total surplus increases by the area D.

This analysis of an importing country yields two conclusions parallel to those for an exporting country:

When a country allows trade and becomes an importer of a good, domestic consumers of the good are better off, and domestic producers of the good are worse off.

Trade raises the economic well-being of a nation, for the gains of the winners exceed the losses of the losers.

Now that we have completed our analysis of trade, we can better understand one of the Ten Principles of Economics in Chapter1: Trade can make everyone better off. If Isoland opens up its steel market for international trade, that change will create winners and losers, regardless of whether Isoland ends up exporting or importing steel. In either case, however, the gains of the winners exceed the losses of the losers, so the winners could compensate the losers and still be better off. In this sense, trade can make everyone better off. But will trade make everyone better off? Probably not. In practice, compensation for the losers from international trade is rare. Without such compensation, opening up to international trade is a policy that expands the size of the economic pie, while perhaps leaving some participants in the economy with a smaller slice.

1 In philosophy, one speaks of ontologies as systematic theories about what exists. In the context of AI systems using human knowledge, we identify the ontology with the set of formal terms with which one represents knowledge, since the representation completely determines what "exists" for the system.

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