vk.com/id446425943

Research

Aziz Sunderji

+1 212 412 2218 aziz.sunderji@barclays.com BCI, US

Q4 18 Global Macro Survey

Late Cycle Blues

December 2018

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its own account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interests may be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES STARTING AFTER PAGE 26.

Restricted - External

vk.com/id446425943

Clients have the late cycle blues. Us too.

Restricted - External

vk.com/id446425943

But we disagree with consensus on a few things: the Fed…

The market anticipates one hike next year, we are forecasting four

Restricted - External

vk.com/id446425943

…and the dollar…

Investors are short dollar more than in any prior survey, we disagree with that positioning

Restricted - External

vk.com/id446425943

…and investors are now more bullish on EM. We are not.

We think humdrum valuations don't sufficiently compensate for structural & cyclical risks.

Restricted - External