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Raw data

Macro

How do you think overall policy mix in the US will affect asset returns over the next six months?

Which of the following outcomes do you think are most likely for the Withdrawal Bill stage of the Brexit negotiations?

50%

Increased

Decreased

No change

60%

Very likely

Maybe

Unlikely

50%

45%

40%

40%

35%

30%

30%

25%

20%

20%

10%

15%

10%

0%

The Withdrawal

The A50

The UK 'crashes

A second

A new election is

5%

0%

Bill is ratified, the

withdrawal

out' the EU in

referendum is

called

USD

US equities

US short-

US long-

US credit

Non-US safe

UK leaves the EU

negotiations are

March 2019

called

in March 2019 extended beyond

without a

duration

duration

havens

and begins a

March 2019

transition period

Treasuries

Treasuries

transition period

	What probability do you place on the UK's leaving the EU in												How do you think Brexit negotiations will affect asset returns
	March 2019 without reaching an agreement, extension or
													over the next six months?
	transition?
	45%							Q4 2018 Q3 2018
	40%												70%						Outperform		Underperform		Unaffected
	35%												60%
	30%												50%
	25%												40%
	20%
	15%												30%
	10%												20%
	5%												10%
	0%												0%
			Less than 10% 10-25%	25-50%	50%-75%	75%-90% More than 90%
															GBP	UK domestic-	UK globally		Gilts		UK corporate		EURUSD
								Restricted -					External			focused equities	exposed equities				credit

10	December 14, 2018

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Equities

Where do you foresee equities markets in the next three months?

Do you think that global equity markets are:

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Q4 2018 Q3 2018

Up more than 10% Up 5% to 10% Range -5% to 5% Down -10% to -	Down more than
5%	10%

60%

Q4 2018 Q3 2018

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

What region will likely outperform in equities over the next three months?

	50%	Q4 2018	Q3 2018
	45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

US	Europe ex-UK	UK	Japan	Pacific ex-Japan Emerging
				Markets

What region will likely underperform in equities over the next three months?

30%

Q4 2018 Q3 2018

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

US	Europe ex-UK	UK	Japan	Pacific ex-Japan Emerging
				Markets

Restricted - External

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Equities

What sectors are likely to perform best over the next three months?

What is the biggest risk to global equities in the next three months?

50%		Q4 2018	Q3 2018
45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Defensives	Commodity	Domestically	Global growth	Financials
	producers	focused cyclicals	beneficiaries (eg,
		(eg, Retailers)	Technology,
			Industrials)

Do you think profit margins over the next year will:

40%

Q4 2018 Q3 2018

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Rising US interest US trade policies	Renewed	Slowdown in the	US economic	China/emerging
rates/inflation	European	synchronized	slowdown	market slowdown
	peripheral stress	global recovery		and/or currency
				crisis

What is the biggest threat to profit margins?

55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Increase	Stay the same	Decrease

45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Trade frictions	Wage inflation	Other input costs inflation

Restricted - External

12	December 14, 2018

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Credit

Where do you see the best value in credit?

In 2019, what is the biggest macro risk to global credit markets?

30%

Q4 2018

Q3 2018

45%

Q4 2018

Q3 2018

40%

25%

35%

30%

20%

25%

15%

20%

15%

10%

10%

5%

5%

0%

European

European

US politics

Global trade

Tightening

EM contagion

0%

politics

politics (Brexit

war

global

(excluding

negotiations)

monetary

European HY European IG

Emerging

Global

US HY

US IG

Brexit

policy

Markets

leveraged loans

negotiations)

In 2019, what is the key risk to European IG performance?

60%	Q4 2018	Q3 2018
50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Weaker	Elevated supply	Pickup in fallen	Worsening	Tightening central
international		angel volumes	fundamentals of	bank policy
demand			leveraged M&A
			deals

In 2019, what is the key risk to US IG performance?

60%		Q4 2018	Q3 2018
50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Weaker	Elevated supply	Pickup in fallen	Worsening	Tightening central
international		angel volumes	fundamentals of	bank policy
demand			leveraged M&A
			deals

Restricted - External

13	December 14, 2018