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Table of Contents

Sample characteristics..……………………………..page 7

Macro………………………………………………….pages 8-10

Equities………………………………………………..pages 11-12

Credit…………………………………………………..pages 13-14

Interest rates……………………………………...…..pages 15-17

Foreign exchange..…………………………………..pages 18-20 Emerging Markets …………………………………..pages 21-23

Commodities…………………………………..……..pages 24-26

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Sample characteristics

	The region where you are based:					The type of investor you are:
	60%			Q4 2018	Q3 2018	50%
										Q4 2018	Q3 2018
	50%					40%
	40%
						30%
	30%
						20%
	20%
	10%					10%
	0%					0%
						Long only	Leveraged	Bank	Corporate	Official	Commodity
	North	Europe	UK	Japan Asia ex-Japan CEEMEA	LatAm
										institution	Trading
	America
										Advisors (CTA)

The one area that best describes your primary focus:

45%		Q4 2018	Q3 2018
40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

EM	Foreign	Rates	Credit	Equities	Commodities
	Exchange

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Macro

Which asset class do you think will provide the best return in the next three months?

If there is a surprise in global growth in the next 12 months, it will be:

60%							Q4 2018	Q3 2018	60%							Q4 2018	Q3 2018
50%									50%
40%									40%
30%									30%
20%
									20%
10%
0%									10%
		Equities	Commodities Emerging	Credit	Short-end,			Long-end,	0%
			Markets (rates,		high-quality			high-quality				An upside surprise	A downside surprise	Growth will be around the
			credit & FX)		bonds			bonds
																consensus

Where do you think growth is most likely to:

80%

Q4 2018

Q3 2018

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Surprise to the upside

Surprise to the downside

Surprise to the upside

Surprise to the downside

Surprise to the upside

Surprise to the downside

Surprise to the upside

Surprise to the downside

Surprise to the upside

Surprise to the downside

US

Eurozone

Japan

China

EM ex-China

What is the biggest risk to market prices in the next 12-24 months?

90%

Q4 2018 Q3 2018

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Inflation

Deflation

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Macro

In 2019, will the market risks presented by the following issues will increase, decrease, or remain the same compared to 2018?

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

	Decrease		Remain the same		Increase

Economic confrontation	North Korean nuclear escalation	Regional conflict in Iraq	Conflict in Yemen leading to	Russian political/military	Brexit	Migration into Europe leading
between the United States and		and Syria drawing in major	Saudi Arabia / Iran tensions	resurgence and power		to a rise in European populism
China ("Trade War")		powers (particularly Russia and		projection (High North, Baltic,		and fragmentation
		the US)		Black Sea, Syria)

What is the biggest risk to markets over the next 12 months?		Over the next six months, which of the following do you
		consider to be the biggest risk to investor sentiment to arise
		from Europe?

30%					40%
25%					35%
20%					30%
15%					25%
10%					20%
					15%
5%					10%
0%					5%
Geopolitical	A trade war	An acceleration	Weak growth in	A substantial	Other
developments		in monetary	China/emerging deterioration in		0%
		policy tightening	markets	the pace of	Brexit negotiation	Budget	ECB policy	Disappointing	Other
				developed	risks	uncertainty in Italy	uncertainty	euro area activity
				market growth	Restricted - External			data

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