vk.com/id446425943

Raw data

Emerging markets

What has your strategy been in EM local currency debt?

60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Neutral/overweight	Looking to reduce	Increasing cash	Adding
	overweight positions	allocation	overweight/long
			positions

In EM FX, rank the group in order of highest to lowest total return in the next three months

55%						1 = highest total return			2		3		4		5		6 = lowest total return
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
			EM Asia low	EM Asia high			CEE		EMEA high carry								LatAm high	MXN
			carry (KRW,	carry (IDR, INR					(TRY, ZAR, RUB) carry (BRL, COP
			TWD, CNY etc)		etc)												etc)

In EM local bonds/rates, rank the groups in order of highest to lowest total return, net of FX, in the next three months

45%		1 = highest total return		2		3		4		5		6 = lowest total return
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%

0%

EM Asia low	EM Asia high	CEE	EMEA high carry LatAm high	MXN
carry (KRW,	carry (IDR, INR		(TRY, ZAR, RUB) carry (BRL, COP
TWD, CNY etc)	etc)		etc)

Restricted - External

22	December 14, 2018

vk.com/id446425943

Raw data

Foreign exchange

What is the biggest risk to EM FX and local rates over the next three months

30%

	Q4 2018	Q3 2018

20%

10%

0%

Trade protectionism Geopolitics/oil supply	Funding	Faster-than-expected EM-specific events, eg,		Developed market	Global growth	Other
shocks	pressure/higher US or	normalization of Fed	local politics	politics (US, Europe	slowdown
	core market rates	policy		etc.)

Restricted - External

23	December 14, 2018

vk.com/id446425943

Raw data

Commodities

What returns do you expect broad-based commodity index benchmarks such as the CRB to generate in Q1 19

Which commodity sector will perform best in Q1 19?

80%						Q4 2018	Q3 2018	60%							Q4 2018	Q3 2018
70%								50%
60%								40%
50%
40%								30%
30%								20%
20%								10%
10%
0%								0%
											Energy	Industrial metals Precious metals	Agriculture			Livestock
		Minus 5-10%	Minus 0-5%	Positive 0-5%		Positive 5-10%

Where will the Brent crude oil price be at the end of Q1 19?

Where will the copper price be at the end of Q1 19?

45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Less than	$50-55/barrel	$55-60/barrel	$65-70/barrel	$70-75/barrel	Greater than
$50/barrel					$75/barrel

70%

Q4 2018 Q3 2018

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Below $5,500/t $5,500-6,000/t $6,000-6,500/t $6,500-7,000/t	More than
	$7,000/t

Restricted - External

24	December 14, 2018

vk.com/id446425943

Raw data

Commodities

Where will the iron ore price be at the end of Q1 19?

45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Less than $60/t	$60-65/t	$65-70/t	$70-75/t	More than $75/t

What is the biggest upside risk to commodity prices in Q1 19?

60%		Q4 2018	Q3 2018
50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

A strong US dollar A slowdown in China's	Acceleration in supply A trade war scenario
economy	growth

What is the biggest downside risk to commodity prices in Q1 19?

70%

Q4 2018 Q3 2018

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Cut to zero

Reduce

Keep at current level

Increase

How do you plan to alter your exposure to commodity prices in Q1 19?

70%

Q4 2018 Q3 2018

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Broad index swaps	Exchange-traded	Medium-term notes	Direct futures
	products	linked to commodities	investment

Restricted - External

25	December 14, 2018