JPM_Europe Year Ahead 2019_watermark

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Mislav Matejka, CFA	Europe Equity Research
(44-20) 7134-9741	03 December 2018
[e-mail]

Valuation

Our Dec-19 DCF-based PT is €79. We use a WACC of 8.0%, a mid-term growth rate of 3% and a terminal growth rate of 2%.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Quicker-than-expected recovery of Healthcare and Education in North America (improved retention and new contract wins);

Further recovery of Brazil;

Successful renegotiation of large underperforming contracts;

Interest rates/FX.

Ontex (Underweight; Price Target: €17.00)

Investment Thesis

Ontex is a European manufacturer of Hygienic Disposable products. It operates in three personal hygiene categories: 1) baby diapers, 2) incontinence, and 3) feminine care. Ontex sells predominantly private labels (also called retailer brands) in Western and Eastern Europe, as well as its own brands in emerging markets and in the healthcare channel. Ontex is exposed to the Hygienic Disposable products market, growing at c3.6% pa. Management expects to outgrow this by 1-2% pa as: 1) retailer brands will continue to gain share, and 2) it has competitive advantages in the supply chain. Despite diversification away from its Private Label (in brands and emerging markets), we believe the business model remains prey to earnings volatility given the weaker performance in Western Europe, though this should be offset by faster growth from the Americas.

Valuation

Our Dec-19 PT of €17 assumes a 9x 19E EV/EBITDA multiple, which is at a 15% discount to Hygiene peers’ EV/EBITDA of 10x (given low visibility and volatile earnings delivery).

Risks to Rating and Price Target

The key upside risks to our rating and target price include: big contract or new customer wins, improved consumer demand in its key markets, better-than-expected performance at Mabe, retrenchment of an established player from its markets (e.g. Kimberly Clark’s exit from European Baby diapers), weak raw material and/or FX etc. We see potential risks in M&A activities as Ontex focuses on inorganic opportunities in emerging markets.

Imperial Brands PLC (Neutral; Price Target: 2,900p)

Investment Thesis

Imperial Brands is a global tobacco company with JPMe ~50% of tobacco profits derived from the EU and ~25% from the US. It is a price-setter in very few of its markets and, in our view, is likely to grow modestly slower than peers in EPS terms over the medium term. Imperial’s so far “measured approach” towards NNPs could be risky, in our view, if the category does grow rapidly, as it could impact earnings and any potential M&A premium. We rate the stock Neutral.

Valuation

We roll forward our target price. We define a Dec-19 PT of 2,900p. We apply a 15% discount to Tobacco peers (PMI, BATS, MO, JT) on PE19E (peers trade at 13.3x vs IMB 9.3x), EV/EBITDA19E (peers at 10.5x vs IMB 9x) and dividend yield 19E (peers at 6.2% vs IMB 8.0%).

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Downside risks to our rating and price target are: rapid growth of the HNB category, higher price competition in key profit pools (e.g. UK), higher-than-expected impact from EU TPD and higher-than-anticipated reinvestments in the US.

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Mislav Matejka, CFA	Europe Equity Research
(44-20) 7134-9741	03 December 2018
[e-mail]

Upside risks include: improvement in market share trends in Europe, higher cost savings, lower-than-expected development of heat-not-burn in Europe.

DWS Group (Neutral; Price Target: €25.00)

Investment Thesis

DWS has a strong position in growth areas with offerings within passive/alternative/multi-asset strategies. These three strategies accounted for a large proportion of cumulative net inflows between since 2014, traditional products have struggled to attract inflows. Whilst we expect an improvement in net flows as headwinds from the US tax reform should abate combined with potential positive flows in passives/multi-asset/alternatives, our estimates do not assume DWS achieve the 3-5% flow target. Equally we do not expect the company to reach cost income target of below 65% until 2022, which may leave room for upside surprise. In the context of this broadly balanced set of risks, we have a Neutral recommendation.

Valuation

Our Dec-19 TP of €25 is based on applying FY19E sector PE multiples to our FY19E earnings. We believe that DWS should trade broadly in-line with the average PE multiple of peers. In our view, DWS will need to provide evidence on delivery, in terms of attracting new inflows and lowering the cost/income ratio towards management's 65% medium term target.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

The main upside/downside risk are from stronger/weaker net inflows or markets, every €10bn change in avg. AUM impacts FY19 earnings by c3%. Stronger net flows. Other risks to our rating include management fee margin climbing or declining significantly, as well as DWS funds outperforming to a greater extent than expected.

Aena (Neutral; Price Target: €146.00)

Investment Thesis

Aena is the world’s largest airport operator as measured by passengers carried. In 2017, Aena handled 249.2m passengers across the 46 airports it owns and operates in Spain. The three main airports within Aena’s network – Madrid Barajas, Barcelona El Prat and Palma de Mallorca – make up more than half of Aena's total passenger traffic and each serves as a hub to different airlines. In our view, Aena remains vulnerable to rising yields. Although traffic was better than expected in FY17 (up 8.2%), we continue to think bookings and traffic for next year are likely to be less stellar, given the difficult comps, the events in Barcelona/Spain and the competition from other Mediterranean countries which are starting to see a renewal of traffic (for example, Turkey). We forecast 5.5% traffic for this year. In addition, inflation is likely to weigh on the EBITDA margin from here, while the strong euro could put pressure on retail spending.

Valuation

We value Aena using our mixed DCF/SOTP framework for the European airport space. Our methodology takes 50% of our DCF per share valuation of €165 and 50% of our SOTP per share valuation of €129. Our DCF valuation is predicated on the same 1% long-term growth rate assumption we use for the other European airports and an applied WACC of 6.93%. Our SOTP valuation methodology is based on the reported RAB and valuing the retail and real estate businesses based on European property EV/EBITDA multiples. International interests are accounted for using book value or market value in the case of GAP.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

The main risks to our target price and our Neutral recommendation are: 1) better-or-worse-than-expected traffic growth; 2) accretive or dilutive M&A in the international airports division; 3) a dividend policy significantly different than expected; 4) the potential for retail spending and Commercial revenues performance deviating from our expectations; and 5) falling or rising Spanish yields.

ASR Nederland N.V. (Underweight; Price Target: €34.00)

Investment Thesis

We have a UW rating on ASR for the following reasons:

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Mislav Matejka, CFA	Europe Equity Research
(44-20) 7134-9741	03 December 2018
[e-mail]

The stock is trading at what we see as an expensive c8% FCF yield. Although this is in line with the sector average, we note that a good part of this FCF yield is coming from life business run-off, whereas the overall European insurance sector has low-single digit growth that we expect will strain capital.

Market expectations on potential for re-leveraging look too rosy, in our view.

Organic earnings growth potential is limited because of the mature nature of the market and focus on traditional earnings.

Valuation

Our SoTP based Dec-19 PT is €34.0 per share. Within this, we value:

The life and the non-life businesses at 11x PE (using 9.0% WACC) and

Bank and asset management and Distribution and services businesses at 12.5x (using 8% WACC).

We deduct debt at 1x face value and subtract €0.2bn for litigation risk.

ASR – SoTP-based valuation

€m, € per share, %

ASR Group	Net of tax operating	Equity allocated	Implied RoE	WACC	Implied P/BV	Implied PE	Valuation
Sum of parts valuation	2020e	2017				2020e
Non-life	126	1,286	9.8%	9.0%	1.1x	11.1x	1,404
Life	463	4,342	10.7%	9.0%	1.2x	11.1x	5,149
Banking and AM	4	151	2.4%	8.0%	0.3x	12.5x	45
Distribution and services	11	181	6.2%	8.0%	0.8x	12.5x	141
Holding cost (ex debt cost)	-68	-295				10.0x	-683
Hold Co cash	8	463	1.6%		1.0x		463
Debt	-43	-1,696	2.5%		1.0x		-1,696
Hybrid		-1,001
Sub debt		-497
Senior		0
Other - double leverage		-198
Litigation risk							-200
Total	501	4,432				9.2x	4,623
Number of shares 2019e							136
Valuation per share €							34.0

Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

The key risks to our investment thesis and UW rating are:

Rising interest rates would help capital generation and S-II ratio.

Further improvement in non-life underwriting would increase earnings.

Better-than-expected cost savings would lead to EPS upgrades.

Accretive in-market M&A that would improve Solvency II FCF yield

Rightmove (Underweight; Price Target: 416p)

Investment Thesis

Despite Rightmove's business model, dominant market position in the UK property classifieds space and ability to continuously deliver stable ARPA growth, we are Underweight the stock. A combination of limited scope for house price increases in the UK and a sharp decline in agent commission rates provides limited earnings upside risk, in our view. This comes at a high valuation for Rightmove relative to its growth profile.

Valuation

Our DCF-based Dec-18 price target 416p is based on a terminal growth rate of 2.5% and WACC of 8.5% (unchanged).

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Mislav Matejka, CFA	Europe Equity Research
(44-20) 7134-9741	03 December 2018
[e-mail]

Risks to Rating and Price Target

The key risks to our UW rating are: 1) better-than-expected performance of the UK economy with positive effects on the UK housing market; 2) a significant increase in the number of property agents; 3) our ARPA assumption proves to be too conservative; and 4) weaker competition than anticipated.

Getinge AB (Underweight; Price Target: Skr68.00)

Investment Thesis

We are Underweight Getinge given the continued significant multiple layers of uncertainty (revenue outlook, margin outlook, regulatory uncertainty, change in senior management and high level of leverage).

Valuation

Our December 2019 price target of 68 SEK, derived from an average of PE and EV/EBITDA multiples. Our P/E-based valuation uses a 13.0x 2019e multiple, representing a ~40% discount to peers given the growth and risk profile, while our EV/EBITDA-based valuation uses a 8.5x 2019E multiple, also a ~40% discount to peers. We focus on very near term multiple and have moved away from using a DCF given the substantial, persistent uncertainty around forecasts.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Risks to our view include that revenue growth is greater than we are expecting as either European growth accelerates or exEuropean growth is stronger than expected and offsets European weakness, or there is strong uptake of new products. Furthermore, the company may take stronger action on costs to protect margins.

Boliden (Underweight; Price Target: Skr200.00)

Investment Thesis

We have an Underweight recommendation on Boliden. The company operates well-established and well-managed mines, predominantly in Scandinavia. The company also benefits from a relatively low-beta smelting business and boasts a strong balance sheet. However, the shares lack any clear stock-specific positive catalysts over the next 6-12 months, while we believe focus is likely to turn towards a worsening FCF profile in 2019 as grade profiles deteriorate at several mines, and capex remains elevated.

Valuation

Our Dec-19 price target is an equally weighted combination of 1) 5.5x 2020E EV/EBITDA which is in-line with historical multiples; and 2) 1.1x base case 2018E P/NPV. Our NPV is based on a sum-of-the-parts DCF valuation using a 10% discount rate. Valuation methodology is in line with the copper peers (combination of NPV and EV/EBITDA multiple).

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Key upside risks relate to:

Additional synergies from the Kevitsa acquisition;

Resolving problems with crushers at Aitik;

More favourable outcomes in commodities, currencies, production, unit costs and capex relative to our forecasts; and

Changes to tax, legislation and other operating conditions.

ENI (Underweight; Price Target: €13.50)

Investment Thesis

We have an Underweight rating on ENI. Weak fundamentals against our industrial roadmap justify a valuation discount vs. EU Oil peers and underpin our Underweight rating. Capex affordability is being addressed through farm-downs in core growth assets. However, we argue that this financial engineering process addresses the balance sheet but fails to materially high grade ENI’s underlying asset base. We highlight: 1) Unattractive risk/reward on its long-term upstream portfolio – ENI’s long-term opportunity set offers growth, but at lower than average returns and with a heavy non-OECD skew. 2)

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Mislav Matejka, CFA	Europe Equity Research
(44-20) 7134-9741	03 December 2018
[e-mail]

Underwhelms on energy transition – ENI screens least well on our Upstream flaring intensity metric and portfolio evolution to 2025 within our Energy transition framework. It will undoubtedly look to utilize G&P to manage its carbon footprint however despite that component to the business model, its carbon footprint vs energy diversification balance appears to be no more than mid-ranking. 3) Poor ranking on our downstream framework – ENI screens the least attractive among the majors on FCF coverage, unit margins, refining asset quality and operational leverage. In aggregate, we believe the shares deserve their cashflow discount to the sector.

Valuation

Our Dec-2019 PT is €13.50, which is set as an equal-weighted blend of SOTP & 2020E PER. Our SOTP at LT $60/bbl is €20. To this we apply a 20% discount. We target a 20% discount to sector 2020E PER multiple of 12.4x (9.9x), to this we apply a premium/discount, as we adjust the target multiple to account for its historical sector prem/disc, recent portfolio developments and the outputs from our industrial analysis. For ENI, this gives a 10% discount and a target multiple of 8.9x on 2020E EPS of €1.28.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Macro risks – The main generic risks, both to upside and downside, come from crude oil, natural gas or refining margins significantly differing from our assumptions.

Accelerated delivery of further disposals – in a fashion that is clearly value accretive and significantly improves portfolio risk-reward.

Italian gas demand – a meaningful increase would support G&P.

Subsea 7 (Underweight; Price Target: Nkr107.00)

Investment Thesis

We have a negative thesis on the offshore sector, to which SUBC is a relative pureplay way to gain exposure. We see a competitive market persisting which is likely to continue to pressure contract margins. In our view, the effect of this will become clearer through 2018. SUBC is on a solid financial footing, with a strong net cash position, but the strength of the balance belies weak market fundamentals. We see downside risk to consensus particularly into 2019 as margins tighten. We are therefore Underweight, while mindful of its leverage to oil price.

Valuation

Our June-19 price target is set around an equal weighted mix of 2019E P/E target of 16x, 2019E EV/EVITDA target multiple of 5.5x and DCF (10.5% WACC, 2% growth rate).

Risks to Rating and Price Target

The primary risks relate to:

Oil price substantially above our forecast range (we recognize that SUBC is highly levered to the oil price).

Order intake – higher order intake than expected could drive consensus forecasts higher.

Sector consolidation could further rationalise the sector and help to preserve competitiveness.

Continued outperformance on cost control and project execution.

Acquires McDermott at a fair price, with attractive synergies.

GlaxoSmithKline (Neutral; Price Target: 1,600p)

Investment Thesis

We rate GSK Neutral, as although we see strong growth in 2018, with a delay in US generic Advair and more than half a year of Novartis Consumer minority buyout, we see no LC Core EPS growth in 2019, and we forecast only a 4% EPS CAGR to 2022 off this 2019 base. With GSK still having to digest US generic Advair erosion, and with rising R&D spend,

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Mislav Matejka, CFA	Europe Equity Research
(44-20) 7134-9741	03 December 2018
[e-mail]

we still forecast the company offering the slowest medium-term growth outlook in EU large-cap Pharma; hence, we set our PT at a 10% sector discount, generating a PT with only 2% upside.

The company offers greater long-term growth sustainability than peers, due to diversification into Vaccines and Consumer Health, as shown by NPV upside (low double digit), however we expect some conglomerate discount to persist, with a Consumer spin-off looking unlikely, ahead of significant strengthening of the Pharma business, requiring a pipeline rebuild.

GSK's sector leading dividend yield remains a positive, however in a rising yield environment, this could drive underperformance, and we prefer to invest in growth vs. yield, as rates rise.

Valuation

Our Dec-19 PT of £16 is set at c.13x 2020e, c.10% discount to the EU large-cap sector on c.15x 2019e. We set our PT at a sector discount, reflecting GSK’s slower medium-term Core EPS CAGR (4% vs. sector 7%), partly offset by the more sustainable long-term growth outlook, as a result of the Vaccine and Consumer businesses.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Upside risks

GSK could successfully rebuild their Pharma pipeline through in-licensing, securing a strong Pharma growth outlook, driving a re-rating. GSK’s internal pipeline could yield commercially meaningful assets.

US generic Advair could see further delays, driving earnings upgrades.

Downside risks

Pharma M&A could increase GSK’s financial leverage such that the company would be unable to fund the currently high dividend payout ratio.

Gilead’s Bictegravir could both take share from GSK's HIV franchise and increase price pressure within the HIV space.

Further increases in bond yields could drive a further de-rating of bond proxies, seeing GSK underperform.

Alstria Office AG (Underweight; Price Target: €13.00)

Investment Thesis

We rate Alstria Underweight. The German office market growth outlook is solid and looks likely to remain so for some time, however recent equity issuances and the conversion of convertible notes to equity have increased shares on issue, flattening EPS growth and we see few catalysts elsewhere for the shares to rerate.

Valuation

Our 12-month target price for Alstria is based on our total returns-based European Valuation Model, which takes into account whether a company creates or destroys value. We argue that companies that have a positive spread between returns and their weighted average cost of capital (WACC) should trade at a premium to NNAV, whereas those with a negative spread should be priced below NNAV. For Alstria, we calculate a positive value creation spread between our forecast total return and our WACC estimate. We apply this spread to the invested capital, discount back, and add/subtract to our NNAV forecast to derive our price target.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Upside risks include yield compression, increased acquisition activity at a positive investment yield spread, a stronger office leasing market and increased investment demand.

VAT (Neutral; Price Target: CHF85.00)

Investment Thesis

We had cut our ‘18/’19 estimates to account for the weak end markets in NAND & OLED. However we show that if all the incremental spending in these products from 2015 were cut, estimates would need to decline more. DRAM is also the

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Mislav Matejka, CFA	Europe Equity Research
(44-20) 7134-9741	03 December 2018
[e-mail]

elephant in the room and is currently forecast as flattish in ’19 which will now become the overhang on the stock. We remain Neutral.

Valuation

Our price target is based on 23x FY19 EPS. We note that a high quality company with a market leading position such as ASML traded at ~20-25x forward P/E during the last semiconductor cycle slowdown period during 2015. We believe that VAT could trade at a similar multiple unless the cycle slowdown is worse-than-expected, in which case VAT's multiple could de-rate further.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

We believe the key risk that could prevent the stock from achieving our price target and rating is an economic double dip, which would jeopardize our earnings estimates and PT. On the other hand, if memory prices remain strong throughout 2018 (driven by better-than-expected end-demand), memory capex could be stronger than expected, and hence, VAT earnings upgrades could be better than what we currently expect.

Micro Focus (Underweight; Price Target: 1,120p)

Investment Thesis

Micro Focus has a portfolio of infrastructure software assets, mostly mature products in gradual revenue decline. While some assets within HPE Software are growing, the Group as a whole seems likely to see continued negative growth trends through at least 2020 (although the declines will temper). Management has moved quickly to lock in the sale of SUSE for $2.535bn, and we anticipate the company will return nearly all of the cash to shareholders by March 2019 except the $300350m paid in tax. The impact of losing SUSE from the mix is further negative drag on revenue growth, but slightly accretive for Group margins. The company aims to increase Adjusted EBITDA margins (target is 37% in fiscal 2018 and ~40% by 2020), however this is the largest merger in the company's history, and some of the execution risks we have highlighted in the past have revealed themselves in H1. The company historically generated consistent cash flows, however the exceptionals associated with the merger, plus heightened DSOs and further exceptionals put FCF under pressure for this year. This also likely put pressure on the company’s M&A business model – which is the foundation for its long term shareholder return thesis. That said, the sale of SUSE helps offset the lower FCF this year. Finally, Micro Focus is under the leadership of its third CEO in the last two years (granted, a veteran of Micro Focus, but the challenge remains the HPE SW business). In a European Software sector with plenty of growth and margin improvement stories, we prefer to own other more consistent names right now. Our rating on the shares is Underweight.

Valuation

In our valuation methodology, we use a 10-year DCF model using a WACC of 10%, terminal growth of -2% and terminal EBITDA margins of 43% to establish a PT of 1120p. We use a DCF model to reflect 1) the negative revenue growth of MCRO and still slow EPS growth, which does not match the 8%+ revenue growth and double digit earnings growth more typical of the global software sector, and 2) investor focus on cash (and cash returns to shareholders), and where a DCF can measure this potential.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Key risks that could prevent our thesis on Micro Focus from being achieved include:

The acquisition of HPE Software was transformational, not only because it was actually larger than core Micro Focus, but also because a large part of the value is in Micro Focus management's ability to find cost efficiencies. The company has recently performed in cost savings, but disappointed on the revenue sustainability side – however, that could be a temporary trend, and if H1 and FY18 were to outperform, investors may regain their desire to participate in MCRO shares.

Macro economic conditions could be stronger than we anticipated, which would likely impact corporates' ability to invest in IT, which could impact demand for Micro Focus's products.

The software assets owned by Micro Focus could see faster-than-expected growth in some areas, which we have now put on mid-term growth of -2%. While the broad mix of assets should keep the Group at a fairly steady rate, there could also be some periodic volatility due to mix.

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Mislav Matejka, CFA	Europe Equity Research
(44-20) 7134-9741	03 December 2018
[e-mail]

Micro Focus will not provide audited accounts until February 2019, and the slightly odd 18-month reporting period does add a bit of complexity. We try to show proforma to match both April and October year ends, for comparisons forward and backwards.

Currencies can impact revenues and earnings, and the USD/GBP exchange rate is particularly relevant to the share price because the company reports revenues in USD (and indeed more than half of revenues is collected in USD), but the share price trades in Sterling.

FCF yield looks more attractive in the outer years, and that could provide comfort to shareholders.

Liberty Global (Underweight; Price Target: $21.00)

Investment Thesis

Liberty Global is a pan-European cable company with a strong track record of value-accretive M&A. The company recently sold several assets to DT and Vodafone, and its largest remaining market is the UK (Virgin Media). It also has operations in Holland (a 50:50 JV with Vodafone), an equity stake in listed Belgian operator Telenet, and assets in Switzerland, Poland and Slovakia. Having sold its highest growth assets to Vodafone (at an attractive exit multiple), the company is now facing mounting headwinds across the remaining footprint. An ongoing erosion of the company’s long-championed growth profile seems all but inevitable in our view. Remain UW.

Valuation

We have a Dec-19 SotP-based TP of $21. We apply WACCs of 6-8% across each region, and long-term growth rates of 0- 1%.

Risks to Rating and Target Price

Upside risks are largely a function of potential value accretive M&A. The company could use its strong balance sheet to drive growth or cash flow enhancing transactions in the UK, or could buy out minorities at Ziggo or Telenet.

Enagas (Underweight; Price Target: €21.50)

Investment Thesis

Enagas has consistently built a reputation for reliable earnings outlook and increasingly shareholder-friendly policies through a growing dividend as the capex requirements for the group gradually decline. The last regulatory review of the gas sector by the Spanish government resulted in a meaningful reduction in regulated revenues for the sector. Still we believe that returns are moderately high for a business where the amount of new investments required is modest and this results in a higher risk profile in the equity story and we reflect it via a drop in regulated earnings in 2021, following on the next regulatory review.

The company will, in our view, continue to make selective international investments/acquisitions that enhance the outlook for future growth and contribute in the future to the group dividend payments. The uncertainty at this stage is whether it will be able to sustain long-term dividends in a context of declining RAB in Spain. We thus rate the stock UW.

Valuation

We value Enagas based on a SOTP, where the key contributor is the DCF-based valuation of the RAB-based regulated revenues and the non-RAB-based volume-linked variable revenue. We allocate Enagas’s Spanish-regulated business a levered beta of 0.96x, which we believe adequately reflects the regulatory risk profile, which may well go beyond the next regulatory review in our view.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

The main risks to our rating and target price come from regulatory decisions that could continue to allow Enagas to get similar allowed returns to those in place in the current regulatory period.

We believe that an additional upside risk to our valuation would come from a potential decision by Enagas to bring in a minority investor to its Spanish pipeline business. We believe that such a decision would allow Enagas to crystallize a

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Mislav Matejka, CFA	Europe Equity Research
(44-20) 7134-9741	03 December 2018
[e-mail]

premium valuation in the current environment of very low sovereign yields. However, such an option has not been even mentioned in the company Strategic Presentations and we believe it is not under consideration.

We could also see some upside if Enagas were to incorporate a minority partner to its international business at a premium valuation vs our current valuation. This would not only have a positive quantitative impact in our view, but a qualitative impact too, as we believe investors would apply a lower risk profile to the valuation of international activities even if they were not to fully reflect the price paid in a private market transaction.

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Mislav Matejka, CFA	Europe Equity Research
(44-20) 7134-9741	03 December 2018
[e-mail]

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