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Earnings revisions
AMSA
We reduce our AMSA earnings forecasts as we incorporate lower forecast sales volumes.
Figure 53: AMSA – headline EPS forecasts, ZAc (unless otherwise stated)
Dec-YE |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
2021E |
New |
83 |
54 |
65 |
114 |
126 |
Old |
104 |
60 |
69 |
111 |
123 |
% change |
-21% |
-10% |
-6% |
2% |
2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Thomson Reuters consensus |
90 |
48 |
58 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
-8% |
11% |
12% |
|
|
Source: Thomson Reuters, Renaissance Capital estimates
Evraz
We reduce our near-term earnings forecasts for Evraz as we incorporate lower sales volumes and price realisations. However, our longer-term earnings forecasts benefit from higher coal and steel volumes and lower unit costs.
Figure 54: Evraz – underlying EPS forecasts, $/GDR (unless otherwise stated)
Dec-YE |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
2022E |
New |
1.65 |
1.37 |
0.83 |
0.72 |
0.82 |
Old |
1.73 |
1.36 |
0.86 |
0.67 |
0.65 |
% change |
-4% |
0% |
-4% |
8% |
27% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Thomson Reuters consensus |
1.45 |
1.09 |
0.89 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
14% |
26% |
-7% |
|
|
Source: Thomson Reuters, Renaissance Capital estimates
Severstal
We increase our long-term earnings for Severstal as we incorporate higher coking coal, iron ore and steel volumes and lower unit costs.
Figure 55: Severstal – underlying EPS forecasts, USc (unless otherwise stated)
Dec-YE |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
2022E |
New |
257 |
208 |
179 |
179 |
191 |
Old |
258 |
211 |
181 |
157 |
160 |
% change |
0% |
-1% |
-1% |
14% |
19% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
251 |
206 |
189 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
3% |
1% |
-5% |
|
|
Source: Thomson Reuters, Renaissance Capital estimates
Renaissance Capital
3 December 2018
Steel
31