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Week Endnotes |
Russia |
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Equities |
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Most/Least Liked Stocks (MLLS)
We last refreshed our Most and Least liked stocks (MLLS) in Week Endnotes –
Week #46; Oils downgrade, LXFT to Buy and to ML, MSCI Review
Historical performance
Our RTS-hedged MLLS1 portfolio advanced +0.8% WoW. The Most Liked (ML) basket went up +0.8%, along with the USD-valued benchmark. The outperformance of GMKN and PHOR was offset by the weakness of SBER and LXFT. Meantime, the Least Liked (LL) stocks underperformed the broader market, declining -2.0%. EVR and NLMK joined the laggards over this week.
Figure 1: Most Liked, Least Liked and the RTS Index
40%
30% |
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20% |
|
10% |
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0% |
|
-10% |
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-20% |
|
Jan'17 Apr'17 Jul'17 |
Oct'17 Jan'18 Apr'18 Jul'18 Oct'18 |
Most liked |
RTS Index Least liked |
Source: Bloomberg, VTB Capital Research
Figure 2: RTS-hedged MLLS performance
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Jan'17 Apr'17 Jul'17 Oct'17 Jan'18 Apr'18 Jul'18 Oct'18
Source: Bloomberg, VTB Capital Research
Figure 3: VTB Capital Most/Least Liked Stocks (Russia)
Name |
Ticker |
Rec |
12-mo TP |
Upside |
Dividend yield |
Opened |
Performance |
P/E, x |
|
EV/EBITDA, x |
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|
LTM |
NTM |
|
Absolute |
Rel. to RTS |
2017 |
2018 |
2017 |
2018 |
Most liked |
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Sberbank |
SBER RX |
Buy |
RUB 330 |
69% |
6% |
10% |
3/15/2017 |
+20% |
+2% |
5.2 |
5.2 |
n/a |
n/a |
Inter RAO |
IRAO RX |
Buy |
RUB 8.40 |
112% |
3% |
4% |
3/23/2018 |
-7% |
-1% |
4.2 |
4.2 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
Nornickel |
GMKN RX |
Buy |
RUB 17,700 |
39% |
11% |
13% |
6/22/2018 |
+22% |
+16% |
7.1 |
7.1 |
6.1 |
6.1 |
PhosAgro |
PHOR LI |
Buy |
USD 17.00 |
25% |
4% |
7% |
6/22/2018 |
+9% |
+3% |
7.5 |
7.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
Gazprom Neft |
SIBN RX |
Hold |
USD 6.10 |
13% |
0% |
9% |
10/12/2018 |
-5% |
-5% |
4.1 |
4.1 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
Rosagro |
AGRO LI |
Buy |
USD 14.50 |
33% |
4% |
4% |
10/19/2018 |
+6% |
+8% |
8.9 |
8.9 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
Luxoft |
LXFT US |
Buy |
USD 50.00 |
55% |
0% |
0% |
11/16/2018 |
-3% |
-2% |
17.0 |
17.0 |
10.4 |
10.4 |
Least liked |
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Novatek |
NVTK LI |
Sell |
USD 100.00 |
-45% |
2% |
2% |
3/15/2017 |
+52% |
+34% |
15.6 |
15.6 |
15.4 |
15.4 |
NLMK |
NLMK LI |
Hold |
USD 23.50 |
-2% |
13% |
13% |
1/12/2018 |
-2% |
+3% |
6.1 |
6.1 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
EVRAZ plc |
EVR LN |
Sell |
GBp 450 |
-3% |
18% |
8% |
3/30/2018 |
+9% |
+14% |
4.4 |
4.4 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
Source: Bloomberg, VTB Capital Research
For the dynamically updated performances of the ML and LL baskets, as well as the history of closed trades, see the MLLS section of the VTB Capital Research Portal
1 The RTS-hedged MLLS portfolio performance is the average of the performance of the basket consisting of Most and Least Liked stocks, as well as short and long RTS index positions for each ML and LL stock, respectively.
30 November 2018 |
8 |