vk.com/id446425943	Week Endnotes
Russia
Equities

Appendix

Figure 4: Operating and earnings reports – 2Q/1H18 (unless stated otherwise)

Company		Earnings data			Report link	Operating data	Report link
		(Beat / In line	/			(Strong / Neutral
		Miss)				/ Weak)
Week 42
Severstal		In line		Severstal – 3Q18 earnings; earnings in line,		Neutral	Severstal – 3Q18 trading update; mixed; downgrade to Hold post
				dividend surprise, of 19 October, by Dmitry			outperformance, of 11 October, by Dmitry Glushakov et al
				Glushakov et al
Week 43
Novatek*		Beat		Novatek – 3Q18 IFRS; strong, as expected, of 25
				October, by Dmitry Loukashov et al
X5 Retail		In line		X5 Retail Group – 3Q18 IFRS results; robust, of		Strong	X5 Retail Group – 3Q18 trading update; solid, of 18 October, by Maria
				25 October, by Maria Kolbina et al			Kolbina et al
Mail.ru Group		Miss		Mail.ru Group – 3Q18; good growth, margins still
				on the agenda, of 25 October, by Vladimir
				Bespalov et al
NLMK		Beat		NLMK – 3Q18 earnings; strong outperformance		Neutral	NLMK – 3Q18 trading update; supportive for earnings, but US tariffs put
				on EBITDA, but FCFE in line, of 25 October, by			pressure on, of 15 October, by Dmitry Glushakov et al
				Dmitry Glushakov et al
Week 44
Yandex		Beat		Yandex – 3Q18; well above consensus, of 29
				October, by Vladimir Bespalov et al
Detsky Mir	-			Detsky Mir – 3Q18 IFRS; robust – continued		Strong	Detsky Mir – 3Q18 trading update; robust, of 18 October, by Maria
				improvement in profitability, of 29 October, by			Kolbina et al
				Maria Kolbina et al
Sberbank		Beat		Sberbank – 3Q18 IFRS; solid numbers with
				surprising NIM resilience, of 1 November, by
				Mikhail Shlemov et al
Enel Russia		In line		Enel Russia – Strategic view - to SPO or not to
				SPO?, of 6 November, by Vladimir Sklyar et al
EPAM		Beat		EPAM – 3Q18; positive numbers – and updated
				profitability guidance, of 1 November, by Vladimir
				Bespalov et al
MMK		Beat		MMK – 3Q18 earnings; positive surprise on costs,		Strong	MMK – 3Q18 trading update; robust volumes signal attractive quarterly
				dividends, but capex raised, of 2 November, by			dividend, of 16 October, by Dmitry Glushakov et al
				Dmitry Glushakov et al
Week 45
Rosneft		In line		Rosneft – 3Q18 IFRS; strong tax reliefs, of 7
				November, by Dmitry Loukashov et al
Polyus		In line		Polyus – 3Q18 earnings; better costs and capex,		Neutral	Polyus – 3Q18 trading update; slightly positive, despite delayed Natalka
				supportive for 2018F, of 7 November, by Dmitry			ramp-up, of 16 October, by Dmitry Glushakov et al
				Glushakov et al
MoEx		In line		lMoscow Exchange – 3Q18 IFRS; uninspiring, but
				well in the price, of 7 November, by Mikhail
				Shlemov et al
Alrosa		In line		Alrosa – 3Q18 earnings; slightly better results,		Strong	Alrosa – 3Q18 trading update; positive as price surprise on the upside, of
				lower volumes to be offset by prices, of 8			23 October, by Dmitry Glushakov et al
				November, by Dmitry Glushakov et al
TGK-1		In line		TGK-1 – 9mo18 IFRS; profits on track, dividends
				not in sight, of 9 November, by Vladimir Sklyar et
				al
Week 46
Mosenergo		In line		Mosenergo – 9mo18; here comes the loss, of 13
				November, by Vladimir Sklyar et al
Rusagro		Miss		Rusagro – 3Q18 IFRS; improvements across the		Strong	Rusagro – 3Q18 trading update; robust, of 23 October, by Nikolay
				board, of 12 November, by Nikolay Kovalev			Kovalev
Unipro		Miss		Unipro – 3Q18 IFRS; one more year, please, of 13		Weak	Unipro – 9mo18 electricity production down 8.3% YoY, of 23 October, by
				November, by Vladimir Sklyar et al			Vladimir Sklyar et al
Qiwi		Beat		Qiwi – 3Q18; well above consensus, dividends
				might be resumed in 2019, of 15 November, by
				Vladimir Bespalov et al
InterRAO		Beat		Inter RAO – 3Q18 IFRS; all that cash by Vladimir
				Sklyar et al
Gazprom Neft		Beat		Gazprom Neft – 3Q18 IFRS; tax reliefs above
				estimates, of 16 November, by Dmitry Loukashov
				et al
TMK		In line		TMK – 3Q18 IFRS; loss on disposal of assets, of		Weak	TMK – 3Q18 operating update; below our expectations – negative –
				16 November, by Ekaterina Rodina et al			financial results are key to watch, of 24 October, by Ekaterina Rodina et al
FSK	-			FSK – 9mo18; vote of confidence, of 19
				November, by Vladimir Sklyar et al
OGK-2		Beat		OGK-2 – 9mo18; falling victim to market surplus,
				of 19 November, by Vladimir Sklyar et al
Luxoft**		Beat		Luxoft – Upgrade to Buy; still facing challenges,
				but recent correction overdone, of 16 November,
				by Vladimir Bespalov et al
Week 47
Phosagro		21-Nov		PhosAgro – 3Q18 IFRS; trick and treat, of 23
				November, by Elena Sakhnova et al

Source: Company data, VTB Capital Research,* - estimated, ** - 2Q19 (ends 30 September 2018)

30 November 2018

9

vk.com/id446425943	Week Endnotes
Russia
Equities

Figure 5: Operating and earnings reports – 3Q18 (unless stated otherwise)

Company	Earnings data			Report link	Operating data	Report link
	(Beat / In line	/			(Strong / Neutral
	Miss)				/ Weak)
Week 48
TCS	Beat		TCS Group – 3Q18 IFRS; solid loan growth and
			6% DY, of 26 November, by Mikhail Shlemov et al
Bank St Pet*	In line		Bank St Petersburg – 3Q18 IFRS; 11% ROE, solid
			loan growth, of 27 November, by Mikhail Shlemov
			et al
Gazprom*	29-Nov
Lukoil*	In line		Lukoil – 3Q18 IFRS; strong, of 29 November, by
			Dmitry Loukashov et al
Transneft*	Beat		Transneft – 3Q18 IFRS; net income lifted by
			revaluation gain, of 30 November, by Dmitry
			Loukashov et al
Rosseti	-		Rosseti – 9mo18 IFRS; dividend yields could still
			be 2-3%, of 30 November, by Vladimir Sklyar et al
Acron
Tatneft
Aeroflot*					Strong	Aeroflot – 9mo18 operating data; strong – but 3Q18 still under cost
						pressure, of 23 October, by Elena Sakhnova et al
Week 50
RusHydro	11-Dec				Neutral	RusHydro – electricity production up 5% YoY in 9mo18 – neutral, of 23
						October, by Vladimir Sklyar et al
Week 51
Megafon*	20-Dec

Source: Company data, VTB Capital Research,* - estimated, ** - 2Q19 (ends 30 September 2018)

30 November 2018

10

2018 November 30	Capital VTB Bloomberg, Source:
	Research

11

Wheat Pl DXY

S&P500 (US) Corn MOEX (Russia) US HY

Bovespa (Brazil) JPY MSCI World

Sensex (India) USTs (US)

US IG

EUR

GBP EMBI Global Au CNY Iron ore

Topix (Japan) PLN Hang Seng (Hong Kong) INR CAC 40

Bunds (Germany) ZAR EMFX

EU Sovereign Stoxx600 (Europe)

FTSE 100 (UK)

ASX (Australia)

EU IG Non-Fin

IBEX 35 (Spain) MSCI EM EU Fin Sen Gilts (UK) Oil, Brent Coking coal Pt

WIG-20 (Poland) Ni RUB BRL

BTPs (Italy) Cu Al Steel

FTSE-MIB (Italy) LME Ag

DAX (Germany)

KOSPI (KOREA) TOP-40 (South Africa)

Shanghai Comp (China A) ASE (Greece)

TRY BIST-100 (Turkey)

% YTD, 30% 20% 10% 0% 10%- 20%- 30%- 40%- 50%-

returns currency Local Commodities Equities Corp Bonds, Govt Bonds, FX

BIST-100 (Turkey) TRY Bovespa (Brazil) Pl ZAR BRL Cu

MOEX (Russia) Corn Pt EMFX DXY Au Iron ore INR RUB

USTs (US)

EMBI Global LME GBP US HY CNY PLN EUR

BTPs (Italy) Ag JPY US IG Wheat

WIG-20 (Poland) EU Sovereign Bunds (Germany)

Hang Seng (Hong Kong) Gilts (UK)

Sensex (India) EU Fin Sen IBEX 35 (Spain) EU IG Non-Fin MSCI EM S&P500 (US) Topix (Japan) MSCI World

Shanghai Comp (China A) FTSE 100 (UK)

TOP-40 (South Africa) FTSE-MIB (Italy)

ASX (Australia) Stoxx600 (Europe)

Al CAC 40 KOSPI (KOREA)

DAX (Germany) Steel Ni

ASE (Greece) Oil, Brent Coking coal

% 3M, 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10%- 20%- 30%- 40%-

returns currency Local Commodities Equities Corp Bonds, Govt Bonds, FX

BIST-100 (Turkey) Sensex (India)

Pl TRY WIG-20 (Poland) ZAR

Hang Seng (Hong Kong) INR KOSPI (KOREA)

TOP-40 (South Africa) MSCI EM Cu

IBEX 35 (Spain) BTPs (Italy)

EMFX

PLN EU Sovereign Bunds (Germany) LME S&P500 (US)

FTSE-MIB (Italy) Topix (Japan)

MSCI World

USTs (US) Au EUR

EU IG Non-Fin CNY EU Fin Sen

Coking coal Wheat Ag GBP

Shanghai Comp (China A) MOEX (Russia)

DXY

US IG

Corn

JPY EMBI Global US HY Gilts (UK) Al

Stoxx600 (Europe)

Bovespa (Brazil)

DAX (Germany)

FTSE 100 (UK)

ASX (Australia) CAC 40 RUB

ASE (Greece) Pt BRL Ni

Iron ore Steel Oil, Brent

% MTD, 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5%- 10%- 15%- 20%- 25%-

returns currency Local Commodities Equities Corp Bonds, Govt Bonds, FX

Pl Sensex (India)

BIST-100 (Turkey) S&P500 (US) ASE (Greece)

MSCI World

MSCI EM KOSPI (KOREA) Bovespa (Brazil) WIG-20 (Poland) FTSE-MIB (Italy)

TRY Hang Seng (Hong Kong)

TOP-40 (South Africa) IBEX 35 (Spain)

Topix (Japan)

BTPs (Italy) Ni INR

CAC 40 EU Sovereign Stoxx600 (Europe) Corn ZAR

MOEX (Russia) US HY Bunds (Germany)

DAX (Germany)

EU IG Non-Fin EU Fin Sen Shanghai Comp (China A) EMFX EMBI Global EUR PLN Wheat

FTSE 100 (UK) Cu CNY DXY

USTs (US) Coking coal Steel ASX (Australia) Au Oil, Brent US IG LME Ag Al GBP JPY BRL

Gilts (UK) RUB Pt Bitcoin

% WTD, 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2%- 4%- 6%- 8%- 10%-

Selected 6:Figure

Bonds, Govt Bonds, FX

12M and YTD MTD, WTD, returns, total assets, global

Corp

Equities

Commodities

returns currency Local

Equities	.vk
	com/id446425943
	Russia

Endnotes Week

2018 November 30	VTB Bloomberg, Source:
	Research Capital

12

EVR LN

NVTK LI

TATN RX TATNp RX SIBN RX ROSN RX BANEp RX ALRS RX LKOH RX SNGSp RX EPAM US AGRO LI GMKN RX GAZP RX AKRN RX GLTR LI CHMF RX AVAZ RX NLMK RX IRAO RX RTKM RX MAGN RX UPRO RX PIKK RX TCS LI PLZL RX MFON LI PHOR LI TGKA RX FEES RX YNDX US HGM LN TRNFP RX DSKY RX MAIL LI SNGS RX POLY LN QIWI US MVID RX SBERp RX MBT NMTP RX BANE RX RSTI RX AFLT RX SBER RX VEON TMKS LI LSRG LI MOEX RX VTBR RX POG LN ENRU RX ETLN LI FIVE LI OKEY LI OGKB RX GLPR LI HYDR RX MSNG RX SSA LI LNTA LI SVAV RX LXFT US MTL US MGNT LI MDMG LI 486 HK ENPL RX

50%-	0%				50%									100%	150%	%, YTD,
																USD

returns RUB Resources tradeables-Non Tradeables Financials Regulated

TRNFP RX POLY LN GMKN RX NMTP RX MAIL LI ENPL RX PLZL RX FIVE LI BANEp RX RSTI RX SIBN RX GAZP RX HGM LN AGRO LI ALRS RX SBERp RX SBER RX RTKM RX NVTK LI UPRO RX LKOH RX SSA LI DSKY RX PHOR LI 486 HK PIKK RX TATNp RX QIWI US AKRN RX AVAZ RX OGKB RX SNGSp RX ROSN RX MTL US NLMK RX AFLT RX ENRU RX IRAO RX MBT MSNG RX BANE RX MAGN RX CHMF RX TGKA RX FEES RX TATN RX GLPR LI SNGS RX TCS LI EVR LN MVID RX LSRG LI VEON MOEX RX VTBR RX MFON LI YNDX US SVAV RX EPAM US POG LN GLTR LI MGNT LI OKEY LI ETLN LI LNTA LI HYDR RX TMKS LI MDMG LI LXFT US

40%-	30%-	20%-	10%-	0%				10%										20%					%, 3M, 30%
																							USD

returns RUB Resources tradeables-Non Tradeables Financials Regulated

AFLT RX GMKN RX PLZL RX QIWI US SSA LI NMTP RX POLY LN AGRO LI FIVE LI RSTI RX OKEY LI EPAM US 486 HK ENPL RX TCS LI NVTK LI PHOR LI LSRG LI GAZP RX DSKY RX ENRU RX MFON LI UPRO RX HGM LN SBERp RX VTBR RX TRNFP RX BANEp RX SNGS RX MOEX RX AKRN RX AVAZ RX TGKA RX FEES RX RTKM RX GLPR LI ALRS RX SBER RX MVID RX BANE RX LNTA LI OGKB RX IRAO RX PIKK RX NLMK RX MGNT LI MTL US LKOH RX YNDX US SNGSp RX VEON CHMF RX TATNp RX MBT MAIL LI MAGN RX HYDR RX SVAV RX GLTR LI SIBN RX MSNG RX TMKS LI POG LN ROSN RX TATN RX EVR LN ETLN LI MDMG LI LXFT US

25%-	20%-	15%-	10%-	5%-	0%			5%				10%										15%			%, MTD, 20%
																									USD

returns RUB Resources tradeables-Non Tradeables Financials Regulated

SSA LI

FIVE LI EPAM US GMKN RX GAZP RX MSNG RX

POG LN

PHOR LI SVAV RX GLPR LI LKOH RX YNDX US DSKY RX TRNFP RX OGKB RX ROSN RX

QIWI US SIBN RX NVTK LI UPRO RX RSTI RX BANEp RX LSRG LI AGRO LI TATNp RX MAIL LI POLY LN TGKA RX FEES RX AVAZ RX OKEY LI MFON LI VTBR RX MVID RX LNTA LI BANE RX TCS LI AFLT RX MGNT LI MBT PLZL RX HGM LN CHMF RX SNGS RX IRAO RX LXFT US RTKM RX ENRU RX ALRS RX NMTP RX PIKK RX MDMG LI GLTR LI VEON MAGN RX MOEX RX AKRN RX ETLN LI TATN RX EVR LN MTL US TMKS LI SBERp RX

SNGSp RX SBER RX 486 HK HYDR RX NLMK RX ENPL RX

8%-	6%-			4%-								2%-					0%		2%				4%									6%		8%	10%	USD %, WTD, 12%	Selected 7:Figure
																																				Tradeables Financials Regulated	12M and YTD MTD, WTD, returns, total stocks, Russia
																																				tradeables-Non
																																				Resources
																																				returns RUB

Equities	.vk
	com/id446425943
	Russia

Endnotes Week

vk.com/id446425943		Week Endnotes
	Russia
	Equities
	Figure 8: Stocks mentioned
	BUY (Currency, Price, TP, upside, NTM DY*)	HOLD (Currency, Price, TP, upside, NTM DY*)	SELL (Currency, Price, TP, upside, NTM DY*)
		ENERGY

TMKS LI (USD, 3.55, 6.10, +72%, 5.7% ) TRNFP RX (RUB, 171,350, 225,000, +31%, 6.5% )

GAZP RX (USD, 2.49, 2.90, +16%, 5.2% ) TUPRS TI (TRY, 126, 132, +5%, 9.6% )

HMSG LI (USD, 7.00, 11.00, +57%, 12.9% ) AYGAZ TI (TRY, 11.83, 15.00, +27%, 15.2% ) LKOH RX (USD, 71.93, 85.00, +18%, 4.9% )

SIBN RX (USD, 5.42, 6.10, +13%, 9.2% ) NOG LN (GBp, 135, 149, +10%, 0% )

SNGS RX (USD, 0.4107, 0.4200, +2%, 2.4% )

TATN RX (USD, 10.78, 11.00, +2%, 7.4% ) TRCAS TI (TRY, 1.57, 1.40, -11%, 2.5% )

NVTK LI (USD, 181, 100, -45%, 1.6% )

			FERTILIZERS
	PHOR LI (USD, 13.60, 17.00, +25%, 6.7% )		ICL IT (ILS, 2,174, 2,350, +8%, 3.5% )
			AKRN RX (RUB, 4,640, 4,400, -5%, 6.7% )
			CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
	STCM LN (GBp, 27.00, 33.00, +22%, 7.8% )		AKCNS TI (TRY, 6.78, 8.00, +18%, 11.8% )
			CIMSA TI (TRY, 7.33, 8.00, +9%, 3.7% )
			METALS & MINING
	PLZL LI (USD, 35.35, 52.00, +47%, 6.8% )		SVST LI (USD, 14.99, 17.00, +13%, 14.1% )		EVR LN (GBp, 464, 450, -3%, 7.9% )
	MMK LI (USD, 8.90, 12.00, +35%, 13.2% )		NLMK LI (USD, 24.00, 23.50, -2%, 13.2% )
	MNOD LI (USD, 19.22, 25.70, +34%, 13.0% )		HGM LN (GBp, 151, 150, -1%, 3.5% )
	ALRS RX (RUB, 103, 130, +26%, 14.1% )		KAZ LN (GBp, 552, 540, -2%, 0.9% )
	POLY LN (GBp, 782, 840, +7%, 5.9% )
			TRANSPORTATION
	GLPR LI (USD, 2.36, 5.00, +112%, 0% )		NCSP LI (USD, 7.90, 10.00, +27%, 7.1% )
	GLTR LI (USD, 9.10, 14.50, +59%, 14.9% )
	GPH LN (GBp, 498, 650, +31%, 7.5% )
	THYAO TI (TRY, 16.95, 22.50, +33%, 0% )
	AFLT RX (RUB, 113, 130, +15%, 4.5% )
			AUTOS

TOASO TI (TRY, 18.29, 30.00, +64%, 9.7% ) FROTO TI (TRY, 55.20, 70.00, +27%, 10.2% )

SVAV RX (RUB, 410, 500, +22%, 0% ) DOAS TI (TRY, 4.76, 5.50, +16%, 0% )

			CONSUMER
	MDMG LI (USD, 4.98, 10.00, +101%, 3.2% )		GHG LN (GBp, 231, 260, +13%, 0% )
	EUR PW (PLN, 17.00, 27.00, +59%, 4.2% )		DPEU LN (GBp, 115, 100, -13%, 0% )
	FIVE LI (USD, 25.50, 39.00, +53%, 4.1% )
	DSKY RX (RUB, 92.92, 130.00, +40%, 9.7% )
	LNTA LI (USD, 3.60, 5.00, +39%, 0% )
	AGRO LI (USD, 10.94, 14.50, +33%, 4.2% )
	OKEY LI (USD, 1.67, 2.10, +26%, 4.7% )
	AEFES TI (TRY, 21.88, 25.00, +14%, 2.9% )
			FINANCIALS
	HSBK LI (USD, 10.40, 20.00, +92%, 10.4% )		TBCG LN (GBp, 1,494, 1,700, +14%, 5.5% )
	SBER RX (RUB, 196, 330, +68%, 9.6% )		KOMB CK (CZK, 902, 1,000, +11%, 5.7% )
	TCS LI (USD, 17.20, 28.00, +63%, 7.7% )		SPL PW (PLN, 367, 380, +4%, 1.5% )
	MOEX RX (RUB, 90.17, 140.00, +55%, 12.8% )		PKO PW (PLN, 41.70, 43.00, +3%, 1.7% )
	YKBNK TI (TRY, 1.69, 2.70, +60%, 0% )
	ISCTR TI (TRY, 4.22, 6.20, +47%, 7.0% )
	BSPB RX (RUB, 47.92, 69.00, +44%, 5.6% )
	BGEO LN (GBp, 1,406, 2,000, +42%, 5.7% )
	ALR PW (PLN, 53.80, 80.00, +49%, 0% )
	PEO PW (PLN, 109, 150, +38%, 7.9% )
	VAKBN TI (TRY, 3.99, 5.30, +33%, 1.2% )
	HALKB TI (TRY, 7.17, 8.50, +19%, 2.1% )
	OTP HB (HUF, 11,400, 13,200, +16%, 2.3% )
	AKBNK TI (TRY, 7.54, 8.60, +14%, 3.7% )
	GARAN TI (TRY, 8.10, 9.00, +11%, 4.6% )
			TECHNOLOGY
	QIWI US (USD, 14.61, 25.00, +71%, 2.5% )		MAIL LI (USD, 25.34, 30.00, +18%, 0% )
	LXFT US (USD, 32.32, 50.00, +55%, 0% )		EPAM US (USD, 127, 135, +6%, 0% )
			ELECTRIC UTILITIES
	IRAO RX (RUB, 3.97, 8.40, +112%, 4.2% )		SWDY EC (EGP, 16.03, 18.50, +15%, 6.2% )		MSNG RX (RUB, 1.77, 1.55, -12%, 6.8% )
	TGKA RX (RUB, 0.0088, 0.0130, +48%, 7.1% )				RSTI RX (RUB, 0.7730, 0.0800, -90%, 1.5% )
	HYDR RX (RUB, 0.5249, 0.7100, +35%, 9.1% )
	ENRU RX (RUB, 1.10, 1.40, +27%, 12.4% )
	FEES RX (RUB, 0.1570, 0.2000, +27%, 11.6% )
	OGKB RX (RUB, 0.3536, 0.4500, +27%, 4.8% )
	UPRO RX (RUB, 2.79, 3.16, +13%, 8.0% )
			REAL ESTATE
	LSRG LI (USD, 1.92, 3.70, +93%, 11.8% )		PIKK RX (RUB, 356, 400, +12%, 3.7% )
	ETLN LI (USD, 2.00, 3.50, +75%, 10.7% )

Source: VTB Capital Research, Bloomberg

A more comprehensive overview of the equity markets, and in particular those stocks in the VTB Capital coverage universe, can be found in our Morning Comment, published every weekday. Prices as of 29 November 2018 close

* - NTM DY – next 12 months dividend yield

30 November 2018

13