Topic 4 safety and human factors

For years it was assumed in the world of aviation that humans were somehow more reliable than machines. This is no longer the case. While machines and systems do fail from time to time, nearly all accidents in civil aviation in recent memory have been the result of human error.

Great progress has been made in ensuring the safety of civil aviation. Accident rates have steadily decreased throughout the history of flying and it is the safest form of transport (cliché often repeated but, nevertheless, true). The continuing challenge is to make flying even safer. Any accident is a tragic event for those involved and their relatives. Images shown by the media have a very negative effect on the traveling public. As the number of flights increases, the number of airplane crashes appearing on the news will logically increase too, even if the very low rate of accidents remains constant. It is the opinion of most experts that there are gains in safety to be made from technological developments.

An example of an accident which could have been averted due to available technology was provided by the tragic mid-air collision of two airplanes over Uberlingen, southern Germany, in 2002. Both aircraft were equipped with TCAS (Traffic Collision Avoidance System). This system not only informed both pilots that there was an aircraft nearby but also issued avoidance instructions to both cockpits, telling one pilot to climb and the other to descend. The problem was that one pilot followed an instruction from the air traffic controller (who was distracted at the time) and unfortunately both aircraft descended at the same rate and collided. Following this accident, a clear directive was issued to air crew worldwide that a TCAS instruction must always take priority over a conflicting instruction from ATC.

Topic 5 aviation in the future

Towards the end of 2010s, a new generation of civil aircraft will be in operation, and a greatly expanded and diversified airline market will be served. It is predicted that that total passenger miles flown per year may be three or more times the current traffic.

Air transportation will continue to be economical, environmentally acceptable and socially beneficial. An element in future aeronautics will be a new approach to operations. Some of the techniques include steep, curved approaches; reduced separation distances; fewer holds in flight and on the ground; and improved all-weather operations.

Vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft will combine vertical ascent and descent capability with more efficient horizontal flight than is possible with today's helicopters.

The supersonic aircraft research now in progress could lead to a second-generation SST with at least a 100% increase in payload capability, a 25-30% increase in range, and a 25% increase in speed relative to the Concorde, with a noise levels well below current regulations.

The hypersonic transport can be envisioned as a follow-on or perhaps even an alternative to supersonic flight. Operating at three times the speed of the Concorde – or about eight times the speed of today's jet transports – and capable of very long ranges, the hypersonic transport could be of interest in an era of increased East-West trade.

At first glance, the hypersonic aeroplane looks quite similar to a supersonic vehicle. The aeroplane, however, is powered not by a conventional turbojet or turbofan engine, but by a supersonic combustion ram-jet integrated into the structure. Because of the speeds, the structure must be cooled by circulating liquid in the skin.