2015ARKH-P5-Field Development Evaluation(80s)

LNG PLANT PROJECT LAY OUT

Plant lay out : surface

 Pars LNG = 265 ha  SPP11 = 125 ha

South Pars Phase 11 and Pars LNG meeting Tehran 21 Sept 2004

 Land occupation = 315 ha

 Reclaimed area	= 75 ha
 Embankments	= 40 ha (incl)
1

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OTHER TYPICAL PRE-PROJECT TECHNICAL (or not) STUDIES

Electrical

Control & ESD System

Telecommunication

Civil engineering

Structures

Pipelines and vessels

Mechanical

Corrosion

Surveys (surface & seafloor, bathymetry, geotechnical, …) requirements

Metering & Export systems

EBS (Environmental Baseline Study)

Preliminary EIS (Environmental Impact Assessment)

Sustainable development aspects, economical & social impact

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CAPEX STRUCTURE

Main Equipment Bulk

Construction (onshore + offshore)

Transportation

Temporary Facilities

Construction camps

Engineering Services

Management & Supervision

Surveys

Insurance

Commissioning

Direct Costs + Indirect Costs = Technical Costs

Direct Costs

+

Indirect Costs

+

General

Expenses

+

Associated Expenses

+

Contingencies

=

Facilities Cost Estimate

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COST ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY

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PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

HOW TO PERFORM A COST ESTIMATE

THREE MAIN METHODS FOR COST ESTIMATING

First “the Rule of Thumb”: US$/bbl US$/MMcfd, or by analogy with an other project (ratio between capacity with exponent 0.6)

i.e. a project to produce 150 MMcfd (equivalent to 25 000 bbl/d) could cost 400MM US$, what about a 250 MMcfd project with similar conditions:

400 x 250/150 exp 0.6 = 543 MM US$

But of course we have to adjust by other factors: escalation, country…

Second method - “Semi-Analytic estimate” . Factorisation method is often used.

Finally the “Detailed Cost Estimate”,

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EXAMPLE OF FACTORISATION METHOD

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ACCURACY & CONTINGENCIES

Study type

Préliminary

Conceptual

Pre-project

Accuracy	+35 to 40%			+ 25 to 30 %		+15 to 20 %

Contingencies

25 to 30 %

15 to 20 %

10 to 15 %

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PROJECT PLANNING

Example of level 1 project development planning

Level 1 - Schedule

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

GENERAL

-Appraisal

-FEED Completion

-Contract Area & FDP

-3D Seismic Acquisition / Processing

OFFSHORE

-Tendering Cycle

-Wellhead Jackets

-Drilling

-Platforms

-Sea Lines

-Export Line & Receiving Facilities

ONSHORE

-Tendering Cycle

-Construction to 1st Gas

-Start-up – Stream 1

-Start-up – Stream 2

- DPSA - Commencement Date

01.10.06

–

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PROJECT PREPARATION

&

DECISION TO DEVELOP

KEY ISSUES: PROJECT ECONOMICS EVALUATION

OBJECTIVES :

To have the monetary value of a project & to analyse the project value drivers

To compare technical alternatives

To evaluate tenders and to prepare negotiation positions

To forecast cashflows and to prepare budgets

To track on going project performances versus budget and forecast

Risks analysis, impact on project value & sensitivities

Reservoir uncertainties Reserves ?

	New technology		 Costs ? Added value ?
	‘’	‘’	 Risks ? Production delay ?
	Low oil prices		 Project value

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