- •HIGHLIGHTS
- •TABLE OF CONTENTS
- •Supply cushion insures against losses
- •DEMAND
- •Summary
- •Fundamentals
- •OECD
- •OECD Americas
- •OECD Europe
- •Europe disaffection for diesel accelerated in 2018
- •OECD Asia Oceania
- •Non-OECD
- •China
- •India
- •Other Non-OECD
- •SUPPLY
- •Summary
- •OPEC crude oil supply
- •Non-OPEC overview
- •REFINING
- •Summary
- •Margins
- •OECD refinery throughput
- •Non-OECD refinery throughput
- •STOCKS
- •Summary
- •Recent OECD industry stock changes
- •OECD Americas
- •OECD Europe
- •OECD Asia Oceania
- •Other stock developments
- •PRICES
- •Market overview
- •Futures markets
- •Spot crude oil prices
- •Spot product prices
- •Freight
- •TABLES
- •Table 1: World Oil Supply And Demand
- •State of the Markets
- •State of the Markets: Second Quarter 2019
- •State of the Markets: Second Quarter 2019
- •Fears of a Macro Slowdown Have Investors on Edge
- •Tech Rises to the Top
- •Nontraditional Industries Prime for Disruption
- •Beyond the Bay: Startups Extend to New Cities
- •Fundraising: Venture Dollars Climb from All Sides
- •VCs Raising More Capital with Each Trip Back to LPs
- •New Funds Move to Institutionalize Early Rounds
- •Diverse Pools of Capital Chase Innovation Returns
- •Next Wave of Capital Will Come After Lockups
- •M&A: Acquisitions Slow as Startups Aim for Growth
- •Opting for Growth Capital vs. an Early Exit
- •Across US, Valuations Climb for M&A
- •Bucking the Trend: Financial Acquisitions Mount
- •US Tech Looks To International Opportunities
- •Regulations: Potential New Hurdles for Exits
- •Tech Giants Spend Big but Now Face Scrutiny
- •Attractive Acquisition Values from Big 5 in Jeopardy
- •CFIUS Could Impact 20% of VC-Backed Acquisitions
- •Unicorns Rely on Capital Boosts From Abroad
- •A Steady Climb: Building Venture in Canada
- •Startup to Scale-Up: Canadians Face “Valley of Death”
- •As Foreign Capital Arrives, Toronto Cements Its Place
- •AI: An Opportunity for Canada to Lead the World
- •Appendix
- •Authors
- •Disclaimers
vk.com/id446425943
Fears of a Macro Slowdown Have Investors on Edge
While US equity markets have powered through the 2010s, they have not been immune to recent concerns of slowing economic growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecast for the third time in six months to the lowest rate since the global financial crisis (GFC).
US Market Return (S&P 500) |
EU Market Return (MSCI Europe) |
China Market Return (MSCI China) |
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200% |
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200% |
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200% |
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150% |
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150% |
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150% |
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100% |
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100% |
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100% |
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50% |
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50% |
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50% |
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0% |
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0% |
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0% |
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-50% |
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-50% |
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-50% |
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2010 |
2013 |
2016 |
2019 |
2010 |
2013 |
2016 |
2019 |
2010 |
2013 |
2016 |
2019 |
US Real GDP Growth & Forecast |
EU Real GDP Growth & Forecast |
China Real GDP Growth & Forecast |
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12% |
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12% |
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12% |
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9% |
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9% |
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9% |
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6% |
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6% |
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6% |
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3% |
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3% |
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3% |
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0% |
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0% |
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0% |
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-3% |
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-3% |
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-3% |
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2010 |
2013 |
2016 |
2019 |
2010 |
2013 |
2016 |
2019 |
2010 |
2013 |
2016 |
2019 |
Note: Market returns are net total return in USD; GDP forecasts by IMF. |
State of the Markets: Second Quarter 2019 |
5 |
Source: IMF, S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis. |
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Tech Rises to the Top
Following the hype and subsequent collapse of the dot-com era, tech companies have proven their importance (and value) to the US economy. Nearly one-third of the S&P 500 Index is represented by tech companies – the largest of any industry.
S&P 500 Tech Industry1 Weighting: 1999—2019
35%
31%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0% |
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1999 |
2003 |
2007 |
2011 |
2015 |
2019 |
Largest S&P 500 Companies by Market Cap
2000
2005
2010 
2015
Q1’19
Tech
Other
Note: 1) Technology industry includes Amazon as well as companies that were previously classified as |
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Technology prior to the GICS industry reclassification in September 2018. |
State of the Markets: Second Quarter 2019 |
6 |
Source: PitchBook, S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis. |
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Nontraditional Industries Prime for Disruption
The traditional definitions for tech have eroded as innovation spreads to old guard industries. Areas ranging from beauty to construction are facing disruption from venture-backed companies.
US Venture Capital Investment: 2010–2018 |
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AgTech: |
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Beauty & FemTech: |
Construction Tech: |
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$1,500M |
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$1,500M |
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$1,500M |
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$1,000M |
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$1,000M |
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$1,000M |
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$500M |
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$500M |
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$500M |
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$0M |
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$0M |
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$0M |
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2010 |
2012 |
2014 |
2016 |
2018 |
2010 |
2012 |
2014 |
2016 |
2018 |
2010 |
2012 |
2014 |
2016 |
2018 |
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Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis. |
State of the Markets: Second Quarter 2019 |
7 |
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Beyond the Bay: Startups Extend to New Cities
Tech’s influence is expanding, not only in new industries, but also in new geographies. Silicon Valley remains king, but rising real estate and talent costs are prompting companies to look elsewhere.
Headquarters and Secondary Locations for US Venture-Backed Tech Companies Valued at $250M+
350
Secondary Location
Headquarters
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Bay Area |
NYC |
Texas |
So Cal |
Boston |
Seattle |
Chicago |
D.C. |
Denver |
Atlanta |
Other |
Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis. |
State of the Markets: Second Quarter 2019 |
8 |