- •Contents
- •Revisions to our forecasts, TPs and ratings
- •Investment stance
- •Capital cycle favours rising returns
- •Comfortable balance sheets and supportive dividend potential
- •Value relative to other stocks
- •Yield potential through the cycle
- •Mid-cycle cash generation offers supportive yields
- •Where to hide if you are bearish
- •What to buy if you are bullish
- •Limited lives weighing down IRR
- •Yields should compensate for limited lives
- •Positive earnings momentum continues to support share prices
- •Commodity price revisions
- •Commodity section
- •Commodity section
- •Preference for base metals over steelmaking materials
- •Earnings revisions
- •Risks and catalysts
- •Peer comp charts
- •Commodity price and exchange rate forecasts
- •Important publications
- •African Rainbow Minerals
- •Alrosa
- •Anglo American
- •Assore
- •Exxaro
- •Glencore
- •Kumba Iron ore
- •NorNickel
- •Rio Tinto
- •Rusal
- •Vale
- •Gold Fields
- •Harmony
- •Polymetal
- •Anglo American Platinum
- •Lonmin
- •Northam
- •Royal Bafokeng Platinum
- •Sasol
- •Disclosures appendix
vk.com/id446425943
Commodity price and exchange rate forecasts
Figure 108 sets out our average commodity price and exchange rate forecasts per calendar year.
Renaissance Capital
1 April 2019
Metals & Mining
Figure 108: Average commodity prices and exchange rates*
Average per calendar year |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
2022E |
2023E |
LT real |
Precious commodities |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gold, $/oz |
1,248 |
1,258 |
1,269 |
1,350 |
1,337 |
1,311 |
1,337 |
1,364 |
1,250 |
Silver, $/oz |
17 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
18 |
Platinum, $/oz |
988 |
950 |
880 |
843 |
900 |
966 |
1,071 |
1,176 |
1,100 |
Palladium, $/oz |
614 |
871 |
1,030 |
1,558 |
1,700 |
1,576 |
1,378 |
1,179 |
1,000 |
Rhodium, $/oz |
694 |
1,108 |
2,218 |
3,135 |
4,250 |
3,825 |
3,145 |
2,465 |
2,000 |
3PGM basket (57% Pt, 36% Pd, 7% Rh), $/oz |
833 |
933 |
1,028 |
1,261 |
1,423 |
1,386 |
1,326 |
1,267 |
1,127 |
Rough diamond index, $/ct |
197 |
198 |
202 |
198 |
208 |
215 |
219 |
224 |
205 |
Base metals |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aluminium, $/t |
1,604 |
1,968 |
2,110 |
1,950 |
2,200 |
2,307 |
2,353 |
2,401 |
2,200 |
Bauxite, $/t |
40 |
43 |
42 |
41 |
49 |
52 |
53 |
54 |
50 |
Copper, $/t |
4,867 |
6,170 |
6,532 |
6,400 |
6,500 |
7,025 |
7,167 |
7,311 |
6,700 |
Copper, USc/lb |
221 |
280 |
296 |
290 |
295 |
319 |
325 |
332 |
304 |
Nickel, $/t |
9,599 |
10,404 |
13,130 |
12,762 |
14,805 |
15,728 |
16,045 |
16,368 |
15,000 |
Nickel, USc/lb |
435 |
472 |
596 |
579 |
672 |
713 |
728 |
742 |
680 |
Zinc, $/t |
2,091 |
2,891 |
2,923 |
2,724 |
2,860 |
2,936 |
2,995 |
3,055 |
2,800 |
Zinc, USc/lb |
95 |
131 |
133 |
124 |
130 |
133 |
136 |
139 |
127 |
Lead, $/t |
1,867 |
2,314 |
2,241 |
2,151 |
2,574 |
2,642 |
2,696 |
2,750 |
2,520 |
Cobalt (99.8%), $/lb |
12 |
25 |
33 |
18 |
24 |
26 |
27 |
27 |
25 |
Steelmaking materials |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Iron ore fines (62% Fe, CIF China), $/t |
58 |
71 |
66 |
88 |
85 |
78 |
70 |
71 |
65 |
Iron ore fines (58% Fe, CIF China), $/t |
48 |
52 |
45 |
69 |
60 |
60 |
55 |
55 |
51 |
Iron ore lump premium (62% Fe), $/t |
10 |
15 |
20 |
21 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
13 |
Freight charges, $/t |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Australia to China |
4.5 |
6.7 |
7.6 |
6.4 |
9.0 |
7.7 |
7.9 |
8.1 |
7.4 |
- Brazil to China |
9.1 |
14.8 |
18.4 |
17.3 |
22.5 |
18.7 |
19.1 |
19.4 |
17.8 |
- South Africa to China |
6.8 |
11.2 |
13.8 |
11.4 |
15.9 |
13.8 |
14.1 |
14.4 |
13.2 |
Hard coking coal - spot, $/t |
144 |
188 |
206 |
187 |
170 |
165 |
168 |
164 |
150 |
Manganese ore (44%, CIF China), $/mtu |
4.30 |
6.00 |
7.11 |
5.60 |
5.33 |
5.45 |
5.56 |
5.67 |
5.20 |
Ferrochrome (EU), $/lb |
1.0 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
Energy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Brent crude oil, $/bl |
45 |
55 |
72 |
65 |
60 |
63 |
64 |
65 |
60 |
WTI oil, $/bl |
43 |
51 |
65 |
60 |
57 |
60 |
61 |
62 |
57 |
Henry Hub (US) gas, $/MMBtu |
2.5 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
4 |
Thermal coal (FOB Richard's Bay), $/t |
64 |
85 |
98 |
85 |
84 |
84 |
86 |
87 |
80 |
Uranium, $/lb |
26 |
22 |
25 |
32 |
43 |
47 |
48 |
49 |
45 |
Chemicals |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ethane (US), $/t |
146 |
184 |
244 |
265 |
375 |
419 |
428 |
436 |
400 |
Ethylene (US), $/t |
585 |
613 |
402 |
489 |
815 |
944 |
963 |
982 |
900 |
Fertilisers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MOP Potash Soluble FOB Saskatchewan, $/t |
228 |
230 |
261 |
294 |
285 |
283 |
289 |
295 |
270 |
Baltic sea Urea granular, $/t |
202 |
220 |
251 |
258 |
267 |
273 |
278 |
284 |
260 |
Baltic DAP, $/t |
357 |
358 |
421 |
428 |
428 |
430 |
439 |
447 |
410 |
Black sea 16-16-16, $/t |
324 |
321 |
318 |
338 |
347 |
353 |
360 |
367 |
337 |
Currency exchange rates |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ZAR/$ |
14.70 |
13.31 |
13.24 |
14.28 |
14.40 |
14.49 |
14.79 |
15.08 |
13.30 |
$/AUD |
0.74 |
0.77 |
0.75 |
0.73 |
0.78 |
0.80 |
0.80 |
0.80 |
0.80 |
$/EUR |
1.11 |
1.13 |
1.18 |
1.16 |
1.21 |
1.22 |
1.22 |
1.22 |
1.20 |
CLP/$ |
676 |
649 |
642 |
666 |
668 |
673 |
687 |
701 |
630 |
BRL/$ |
3.49 |
3.19 |
3.65 |
3.68 |
3.47 |
3.42 |
3.49 |
3.56 |
3.20 |
COP/$ |
3,053 |
2,952 |
2,956 |
3,097 |
3,005 |
3,015 |
3,138 |
3,265 |
2,800 |
RUB/$ |
67 |
58 |
63 |
67 |
69 |
68 |
66 |
66 |
58 |
Inflation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
US consumer price index |
240 |
245 |
251 |
255 |
260 |
265 |
270 |
276 |
|
US inflation |
1.3% |
2.1% |
2.5% |
1.4% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
|
*The above amounts represent the average per calendar year.
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates
61
62
estimates Capital Renaissance Bloomberg, Source:
March),(26Spot |
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0 |
2 |
6 4 |
8 |
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10 |
12 |
14 |
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16 |
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(44%,oreManganese |
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2002 |
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2.0 |
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2003 (-0%) |
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2.0 |
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2004 (-0%) |
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2.0 |
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2005 (+67%) |
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3.3 |
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2006 (-22%) |
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2.6 |
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2007 (+36%) |
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3.5 |
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2008 (+299%) |
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14.1 |
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2009 (-61%) |
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5.4 |
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CIF |
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6 |
2010 (+42%) |
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7.7 |
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2011 (-21%) |
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6.1 |
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China), |
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2014 (-17%) |
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4.5 |
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2012 (-19%) |
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4.9 |
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2013 (+10%) |
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5.4 |
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2015 (-31%) |
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3.1 |
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$/mtu |
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2016 (+38%) |
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4.3 |
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2017 (+40%) |
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6.0 |
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2018 (+18%) |
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7.1 |
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Spot |
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6.5 |
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2019E (16% upside) |
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5.6 |
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2020E (21% upside) |
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5.3 |
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2021E (19% upside) |
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5.5 |
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2022E (16% upside) |
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5.6 |
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2023E (14% upside) |
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5.7 |
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LT real (25% upside) |
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5.2 |
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Spot |
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5 0 |
|
10 |
15 |
30 25 20 |
35 |
40 |
$/ozSilver, |
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2004 (+36%) |
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7 |
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2002 |
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5 |
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2003 (+8%) |
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5 |
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(26 |
2005 (+13%) |
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8 |
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2006 (+54%) |
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12 |
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March), |
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2009 (-2%) |
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15 |
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2007 (+16%) |
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14 |
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2008 (+11%) |
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15 |
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4.15 |
2010 (+40%) |
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21 |
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2011 (+74%) |
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36 |
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2012 (-12%) |
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32 |
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2013 (-26%) |
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23 |
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2014 (-21%) |
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19 |
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2015 (-15%) |
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16 |
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2016 (+9%) |
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17 |
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2017 (-0%) |
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17 |
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2018 (-8%) |
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16 |
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Spot |
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15 |
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2019E (8% downside) |
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17 |
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2020E (14% downside) |
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18 |
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2021E (18% downside) |
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19 |
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2022E (20% downside) |
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19 |
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2023E (21% downside) |
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20 |
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LT real (14% downside) |
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18 |
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Spot |
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0 |
200 |
400 |
600 |
800 |
1,000 |
1,200 |
1,400 |
1,600 |
1,800 |
Gold, |
||||||||||||||||
2003 (+17%) |
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364 |
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$/oz |
|||||||
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2002 |
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310 |
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|
|
|
|
||||||
(26 |
2004 (+13%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
409 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
2005 (+9%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
445 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
March), |
2006 (+36%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
604 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
2007 (+15%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
697 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
2008 (+25%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
872 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
1,316 |
2009 (+12%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
973 |
|
|
|
|
|
1,571 |
||||||
2011 (+28%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
2010 (+26%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,225 |
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
2012 |
(+6%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,668 |
||||
|
2013 (-15%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,413 |
|
||||||||
|
2014 (-10%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,266 |
|
|
|
|||||||
|
2015 (-8%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,160 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
2016 (+8%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,248 |
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
2017 (+1%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,258 |
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
2018 (+1%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,269 |
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
Spot |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,316 |
|
|
|
|||||||
2019E (3% downside) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,350 |
|
|
|||||||||
2020E (2% downside) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,337 |
|
|
||||||||||
|
2021E (0% upside) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,311 |
|
|
|
||||||||
2022E (2% downside) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,337 |
|
|
||||||||||
2023E (4% downside) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,364 |
|
||||||||||
LT real (5% upside) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,250 |
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Spot |
|
|
2002 |
||
(26 |
|
|
|||
2003 (+14%) |
|||||
March), |
2004 (+33%) |
||||
2007 (+10%) |
|||||
|
2005 (+45%) |
||||
|
2006 (+20%) |
||||
68 |
2008 (+35%) |
||||
|
2009 (-37%) |
||||
|
2010 (+29%) |
||||
|
2011 (+39%) |
||||
|
|
2012 (+1%) |
|||
|
|
2013 (-3%) |
|||
|
|
2014 (-8%) |
|||
|
2015 (-46%) |
||||
|
2016 (-16%) |
||||
|
2017 (+21%) |
||||
|
2018 (+31%) |
||||
|
|
|
Spot |
||
2019E (5% upside) |
|||||
2020E (14% upside) |
|||||
2021E (8% upside) |
|||||
2022E (6% upside) |
|||||
2023E (4% upside) |
|||||
LT real (14% upside) |
|||||
Spot |
|
|
2003 |
||
(26 |
2004 (+52%) |
||||
2005 (-15%) |
|||||
March), |
|||||
2008 (+93%) |
|||||
|
2006 (+11%) |
||||
|
2007 |
(+24%) |
|||
74 |
2009 (-46%) |
||||
2010 (+42%) |
|||||
|
|||||
|
2011 (+28%) |
||||
|
2012 (-21%) |
||||
|
2013 |
(-13%) |
|||
|
2014 (-11%) |
||||
|
2015 (-22%) |
||||
|
2016 (+14%) |
||||
|
2017 (+31%) |
||||
|
2018 (+16%) |
||||
|
|
|
Spot |
||
2019E (13% downside) |
|||||
2020E (11% downside) |
|||||
2021E (11% downside) |
|||||
2022E (13% downside) |
|||||
2023E (15% downside) |
|||||
LT real (7% downside) |
|||||
|
|
|
0 |
||
Spot |
|
2002 |
|
||
|
|
||||
(26 |
2003 (-3%) |
|
|||
2004 (+16%) |
|
||||
March), |
|
||||
2005 (+99%) |
|
||||
|
2006 (+9%) |
|
|||
|
2007 (-13%) |
|
|||
214 |
2008 |
(+147%) |
|
||
2009 (-32%) |
|
||||
|
2010 (+11%) |
|
|||
|
2011 (+52%) |
|
|||
|
2012 (-27%) |
|
|||
|
2013 (-25%) |
|
|||
|
2014 (-21%) |
|
|||
|
2015 (-25%) |
|
|||
|
2016 (+52%) |
|
|||
|
2017 (+30%) |
|
|||
|
2018 (+10%) |
|
|||
|
|
|
Spot |
|
|
2019E (15% upside) |
|
||||
2020E (26% upside) |
|
||||
2021E (30% upside) |
|
||||
2022E (27% upside) |
|
||||
2023E (31% upside) |
|
||||
LT real (43% upside) |
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
20 |
|
40 |
|
60 |
|
80 |
|
|
100 |
|
Brent 120 |
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
, oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2838 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
55 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$/bbl |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
66 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
73 |
|
98 |
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
62 |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
80 |
|
|
|
111 |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
112 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
109 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
54 |
|
|
|
|
100 |
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4555 |
72 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
68 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
65 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
60 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
63 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
64 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
65 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
60 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
40 |
60 |
|
|
|
|
100 |
120 |
140 |
|||||||||
0 |
20 |
|
35 |
|
80 |
|
|
Thermal |
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
4 |
|
|
|
|
54 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$/tcoal, |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5163 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
45 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
65 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
120 |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
92 |
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
118 |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
93 |
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
81 |
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
57 |
72 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
64 |
85 |
98 |
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7485 |
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
84 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
84 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
86 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
87 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
80 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
100 |
150 |
|
200 |
250 |
300 |
350 |
|||||||||||||
50 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
Hard |
||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
54 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
coking |
|
|
|
|
47 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
108 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
coal, |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
118 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
103 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
253 |
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
172 |
|
|
|
|
$/t |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
191 |
|
|
289 |
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
159 |
211 |
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
95 |
126 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
144 188 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
206 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
214 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
187 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
170 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
165 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
168 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
164 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
150 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Spot |
2002 |
||
(26 |
|||
March), |
2003 (+42%) |
||
2006 (+64%) |
|||
|
2004 (+44%) |
||
|
2005 (+7%) |
||
12,995 |
2007 (+54%) |
||
2008 (-43%) |
|||
|
2009 (-31%) |
||
|
2010 (+49%) |
||
|
2011 (+5%) |
||
|
2012 (-23%) |
||
|
2013 (-14%) |
||
|
2014 (+12%) |
||
|
2015 (-30%) |
||
|
2016 (-19%) |
||
|
2017 (+8%) |
||
|
2018 (+26%) |
||
|
Spot |
||
|
2019E (2% upside) |
||
2020E (12% downside) |
|||
2021E (17% downside) |
|||
2022E (19% downside) |
|||
2023E (21% downside) |
|||
LT real (13% downside) |
|||
Spot |
2002 500 |
||
(26 |
2003 (+6%) |
|
|
2004 (+27%) |
|
|
|
March), |
|
|
|
2007 (-1%) |
|
|
|
|
2005 (+32%) |
|
|
|
2006 (+137%) |
|
|
2,920 |
2008 (-42%) |
|
|
2010 (+31%) |
|
|
|
|
2009 (-12%) |
|
|
|
2011 (+1%) |
|
|
|
2012 (-11%) |
|
|
|
2013 (-2%) |
|
|
|
2014 (+13%) |
|
|
|
2015 (-11%) |
|
|
|
2016 (+8%) |
|
|
|
2017 (+38%) |
|
|
|
2018 (+1%) |
|
|
|
Spot |
||
2019E (7% upside) |
|||
2020E (2% upside) |
|||
2021E (1% downside) |
|||
2022E |
(3% downside) |
||
2023E (4% downside) |
|||
LT real (4% upside) |
|||
Spot |
400 |
||
(26 |
2002 |
|
|
2003 (+28%) |
|
|
|
March), |
2004 (+22%) |
|
|
2005 (+6%) |
|
|
|
|
2006 (+27%) |
|
|
863 |
2007 (+14%) |
|
|
2008 (+21%) |
|
|
|
|
2009 (-23%) |
|
|
|
2010 (+34%) |
|
|
|
2011 (+7%) |
|
|
|
2012 (-10%) |
|
|
|
2013 (-4%) |
|
|
|
2014 (-7%) |
|
|
|
2015 (-24%) |
|
|
|
2016 (-6%) |
|
|
|
2017 (-4%) |
|
|
|
2018 (-7%) |
|
|
|
Spot |
|
|
2019E (2% upside) |
|
||
2020E (4% downside) |
|
||
2021E (11% downside) |
|
||
2022E (19% downside) |
|
||
2023E (27% downside) |
|
||
LT real (22% downside) |
|
||
|
|
|
|
5,000 |
|
10,000 |
15,000 |
20,000 |
25,000 |
30,000 |
35,000 |
40,000 |
Nickel, |
||||
|
|
6,778 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$/t |
|||
|
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
09,635 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
13,834 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
14,741 24,249 |
|
37,229 |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
21,115 |
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
14,653 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
21,833 |
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
22,842 |
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
17,525 |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
15,033 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
16,868 |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
11,864 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
9,599 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
10,404 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
13,130 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
12,995 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
12,762 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
14,805 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
15,728 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
16,045 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
16,368 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
15,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
1,000 |
|
1,500 |
|
2,000 |
2,500 |
3,000 |
|
3,500 |
Zinc, |
||||
778 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$/t |
||
828 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
1,048 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
5 |
1,380 |
|
|
|
|
|
3,275 |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
1,876 |
|
|
|
3,243 |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
1,6542,160 |
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
2,190 |
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
1,947 |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
1,909 |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
2,162 |
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
1,932 |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
2,091 |
|
2,891 |
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,923 |
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,920 |
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,724 |
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,860 |
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,936 |
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,995 |
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3,055 |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,800 |
Platinum, |
||||
|
|
1,000 |
1,200 |
1,400 |
|
1,600 |
|
1,800 |
|||||
600 |
800 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
691845 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
$/oz |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
897 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
1,139 |
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,302 |
1,572 |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,203 |
|
1,612 |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,720 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,551 |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,488 |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,056 |
1,385 |
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
988 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
950 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
880 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
863 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
843 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
900 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
966 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,071 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,176 |
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,100 |
|
|
|
|
|
350
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
559 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2002 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$/t China), (CIF fines ore Iron |
price Commodity 109: Figure |
|
|
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
2003 (+4%) |
29 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
2004 (+11%) |
32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
2005 (+41%) |
45 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
2006 (+33%) |
|
|
59 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
2007 (+106%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
122 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
2008 (+25%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
152 |
|
|
||||||||
|
2009 (-44%) |
|
|
|
|
|
85 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
2010 (+79%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
152 |
|
|
||||||||
|
2011 (+15%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
175 |
|||||||||
|
2012 (-24%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
132 |
|
|
|
|||||||||
85March),(26Spot |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
136 |
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
2013 (+3%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
2014 (-29%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
97 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
forecasts |
||
|
2015 (-43%) |
|
|
|
|
|
56 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
2016 (+5%) |
|
|
|
|
|
58 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
2017 (+22%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
71 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
2018 (-7%) |
|
|
|
|
|
66 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
Spot |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
85 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
compared |
|||
|
2019E (3% downside) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
88 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
2020E (0% upside) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
85 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
2021E (10% upside) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
78 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
2022E (22% upside) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
70 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
2023E (20% upside) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
71 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
LT real (31% upside) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
65 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
with |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Spot |
|
|
1,000 |
4,000 3,000 2,000 |
10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 |
Copper, |
spot |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
, |
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||
(26 |
|
2002 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$/t |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
2003 (+14%) |
|
|
|
|
|
1,779 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
March), |
2004 (+61%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,865 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
2005 (+28%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3,679 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
2006 (+83%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6,723 |
|
|
|
|
||||
2007 (+6%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7,121 |
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
6,338 |
2008 |
(-2%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6,961 |
|
|
|
|
||
2009 (-26%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5,148 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
2010 (+46%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7,536 |
|
|
|
|||
|
2011 (+17%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8,811 |
|
|||
|
2012 (-10%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7,950 |
|
|
||||
|
2013 (-8%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7,328 |
|
|
|
|||
|
2014 (-6%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6,861 |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
2015 (-20%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5,512 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
2016 (-12%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4,867 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
2017 (+27%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6,170 |
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
2018 (+6%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6,532 |
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
Spot |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6,338 |
|
|
|
|
||||
2019E (1% downside) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6,400 |
|
|
|
|
||||||
2020E (3% downside) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6,500 |
|
|
|
|
||||||
2021E (10% downside) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7,025 |
|
|
|
|||||||
2022E (12% downside) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7,167 |
|
|
|
|||||
2023E (13% downside) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7,311 |
|
|
|
||||
LT real (5% downside) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6,700 |
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,600 |
|
1,800 |
2,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
2002 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
(26Spot |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,432 |
|
|
2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 |
,Aluminium |
|
||||||||||||
2003 (+6%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||
|
1,400 1,200 1,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||
|
2004 (+20%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,716 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
March), |
2005 (+11%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,899 |
|
|
|
|
$/t |
|
||||||
2006 (+35%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,570 |
|
||||||
2007 (+3%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,639 |
|
||||||
1,865 |
2008 (-2%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,573 |
|
|||||
2009 (-35%) |
|
|
|
|
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1,664 |
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2010 (+31%) |
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2,173 |
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2011 (+10%) |
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2,398 |
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|
2012 (-16%) |
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2,018 |
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2013 (-8%) |
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1,847 |
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2014 (+1%) |
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1,866 |
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2015 (-11%) |
|
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|
|
|
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1,664 |
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2016 (-4%) |
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1,604 |
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2017 (+23%) |
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1,968 |
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2018 (+7%) |
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2,110 |
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Spot |
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1,865 |
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2019E (4% downside) |
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1,950 |
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2020E (15% downside) |
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|
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2,200 |
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2021E (19% downside) |
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2,307 |
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2022E (21% downside) |
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2,353 |
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2023E (22% downside) |
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2,401 |
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LT real (15% downside) |
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2,200 |
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com/id446425943.vk
Mining & Metals |
Capital Renaissance 2019 April 1 |
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