- •Contents
- •Revisions to our forecasts, TPs and ratings
- •Investment stance
- •Capital cycle favours rising returns
- •Comfortable balance sheets and supportive dividend potential
- •Value relative to other stocks
- •Yield potential through the cycle
- •Mid-cycle cash generation offers supportive yields
- •Where to hide if you are bearish
- •What to buy if you are bullish
- •Limited lives weighing down IRR
- •Yields should compensate for limited lives
- •Positive earnings momentum continues to support share prices
- •Commodity price revisions
- •Commodity section
- •Commodity section
- •Preference for base metals over steelmaking materials
- •Earnings revisions
- •Risks and catalysts
- •Peer comp charts
- •Commodity price and exchange rate forecasts
- •Important publications
- •African Rainbow Minerals
- •Alrosa
- •Anglo American
- •Assore
- •Exxaro
- •Glencore
- •Kumba Iron ore
- •NorNickel
- •Rio Tinto
- •Rusal
- •Vale
- •Gold Fields
- •Harmony
- •Polymetal
- •Anglo American Platinum
- •Lonmin
- •Northam
- •Royal Bafokeng Platinum
- •Sasol
- •Disclosures appendix
vk.com/id446425943
Value relative to other stocks
Renaissance Capital
1 April 2019
Metals & Mining
We believe many mining companies still offer better internal rates of return over a 10-year investment period than companies listed in other sectors, on the key assumption that they do not embark on value-destructive capital allocation.
IRR captures near-term cash generation and the benefit of long-term growth. What we view as diversified miners’ attractive near-term cash-flow yields support more attractive IRR than other sectors, despite limited earnings growth (Figure 21).
To see how the resource companies under our coverage stack up in terms of long-term value relative to other companies in other sectors, we have constructed a simple model to forecast dividends 10 years out:
1.We use Thomson Reuters consensus EPS and DPS forecasts for the next two years up to 2019. We assume the consensus 2019 forecast represents normalised mid-cycle earnings.
2.We forecast EPS beyond 2019 by assuming 14-16% returns on incremental investment. We use the following formula: Thomson Reuters 2018E EPS forecast + (change in book value per share x RoI%).
3.We calculate DPS as EPS x payout ratio (1 - retention rate).
4.We assume a low retention rate (around 20%) for low-growth companies and we assume retention rates drop to around 50% for high-growth companies.
We assume all companies achieve returns on incremental investment of around 15%
Figure 21: IRR over a 10-year investment period
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
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19.0% |
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18.4% |
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17.3% |
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16.8% |
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16.6% |
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16.4% |
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16.3% |
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15.7% 15.7% |
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15.6% |
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15.2% |
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14.7% |
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13.8% |
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14.5% |
14.3% |
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13.6% |
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13.3% 13.2% |
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14.1% |
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13.9% |
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13.0% |
12.4% |
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12.6% 12.5% |
12.2% |
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12.1% |
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11.9% |
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11.8% |
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11.7% 11.7% |
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11.6% 11.5% |
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11.3% |
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11.2% 11.2% |
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11.0% |
10.5% 10.5% |
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||
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
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||
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.7% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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||
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.3% 10.3% 10.3% 10.3% 10.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|||||||
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
Average, 11.1% |
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.0% 9.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|||||||||||||
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
9.8% 9.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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||
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9.7% 9.6% 9.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|||
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9.5% 9.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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||
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9.1% 9.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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||
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9.0% 8.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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||
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8.7% 8.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8.5% 8.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
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|
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|
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|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8.3% 8.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.5% 7.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.2% 7.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.8% 5.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.6% 5.5% |
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.1% |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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||
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|
||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ARM |
|
|
Vale |
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
Holding Bank6 |
|
4 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
gas2 |
|
|
3 |
|
4 |
|
Tobacco |
|
|
South32 |
|
1 |
gas& 1 |
|
|
Tech |
|
6 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
|
|
3 |
10 AMSA |
|||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MMK |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
Alrosa |
|
|
Exxaro |
|
|
Sappi |
Bank |
|
Motor |
|
Sasol |
3 |
|
|
Property |
|
Evraz |
|
Bank |
NLMK |
5 |
5 |
Food |
Retailer |
|
2Food |
|
|
manager |
|
|
Rio |
|
Northam |
Assurer |
Telecom |
|
Fields |
Amplats |
|
|
Food |
|
4 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
miner |
Harmony |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Impala |
Merafe |
RBPlat |
|
|
Norilsk |
|
|
Bank |
Anglo |
Polyus |
Inv. |
Healthcare |
Bank |
|
Assore |
Retailer8 |
Sibanye |
& |
Retailer |
|
Retailer |
Property |
|
Luxury |
|
|
Retailer |
|
Oil |
AngloGold |
3 |
|
Retailer |
Beverages |
Bank |
|
Tech Tech |
Retailer |
Mondi |
Industrial |
Retailer |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Fortescue |
|
|
Severstal |
|
|
|
Glencore |
Pharmaceutical |
|
|
Property |
Private |
|
|
Polymetal |
Industrial |
|
Retailer |
Property |
|
Oil Industrial |
Insurance |
|
Telecom |
|
Asset |
|
|
|
|
AssurerLife |
|
Life |
|
Gold |
|
|
Healthcare |
|
Property |
Tech |
Beverages |
Beverages |
Healthcare |
Diversified |
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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5 |
|
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|
|
equity 4 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9 |
|
|
2 |
|
1 |
|
goods |
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||
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1 1 |
|
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|
|
|
|
Kumba Tinto |
|
|
|
1 |
BHP |
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Priced at market close on 26 March 2019.
Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital
14
vk.com/id446425943
Renaissance Capital
1 April 2019
Metals & Mining
Less than a 10-year dividend repayment period for some miners
Two key drivers of IRR are:
1)Initial yield
2)Growth
While we do not view mining companies as growth stocks, we believe they offer superior medium-term dividend-paying potential.
We calculate that some mining companies could repay their market caps out of dividends over the next 10 years, based on target gearing levels and assuming no further growth projects at value-destructive returns.
While we do not have any conviction about the sector’s capital discipline over the medium term, we believe the sector could re-rate over the short term as the market gains visibility on the sector’s yield potential.
Figure 22: Cumulative 10-year dividends as % of share price
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
154% |
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
151% |
|
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||
|
|
150% |
|
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|
|
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|
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|
|
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|
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143% |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
138% |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
136% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
133% |
|
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|
127% 126% 126% |
|
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||
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|||
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|
118% |
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
115% |
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|
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|
114% |
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|
113% |
|
|
|
|
|
105% |
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||
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||||
|
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|
111% |
|
110% |
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||||
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|
105% |
104% |
101% 101% |
|
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||||||||
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|
111% |
|
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|
103% 103% 102% |
|
95% |
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||||
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|
92% 92% 91% |
|
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|||
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|
90% |
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|
87% |
|
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|
85% 85% |
|
81% 81% |
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
Average, 81.7% |
|
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||||||||||
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|
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|
|
83% 82% |
|
77% 77% 76% |
|
|
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|||||||||||||
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|
75% 75% 75% |
|
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|||
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73% |
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|
72% |
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|
71% |
|
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|
70% |
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|
69% |
|
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|
67% |
|
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64% 64% |
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61% 61% 61% |
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|||
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59% 59% |
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||
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55% 54% |
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52% |
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49% |
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47% |
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46% 46% 46% 46% |
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||||
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43% 43% 43% |
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|||
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41% |
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41% 40% |
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||
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38% |
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37% 36% |
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||
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36% 35% |
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33% |
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31% |
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|
22% 22% |
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|||||||||||||||||
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|
|||||||||||||||||||
|
Alrosa |
|
RBPlat |
Norilsk |
|
|
Glencore |
Anglo |
Sasol |
Polyus |
|
Assore Bank |
NLMK |
South32 |
Property |
Kumba |
RioTinto Bank Bank2 |
|
|
Property |
|
Telecom |
|
|
|
Bank |
Amplats |
|
Retailer Retailer |
|
Bank |
Insurance Inv. |
|
Beverages |
|
Retailer |
Beverages |
Private |
|
Bank |
Industrial |
|
|
Tech |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
ARM |
|
|
Vale |
Sappi |
3 |
|
|
4 |
|
Evraz |
|
5 |
5 |
1 |
MMK |
|
|
|
4 |
|
|
gas & |
|
Retailer |
& |
|
Motor |
2 |
4 9 |
1 |
Food |
|
Food |
|
Northam |
|
6 Retailer |
|
goods |
Assurer |
Food |
|
miner |
Retailer |
|
4 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||
Impala Merafe |
Fortescue |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Severstal |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
AngloGold |
2 |
|
|
|
2 |
|
1 |
Mondi |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
1 |
Holding |
|
2 |
|
|
|
3 |
equity |
3 |
|
3 |
2 |
1 1 |
||||||||||||||||||||
|
Exxaro |
Property Polymetal Property |
|
|
Sibanye Property |
managerAsset |
|
|
Telecom |
Tobacco |
Oil |
Gold |
|
Oil |
Pharmaceutical |
|
Industrial |
Retailer Retailer |
Industrial |
|
AssurerLife |
|
|
Healthcare |
|
Healthcare |
|
Healthcare |
Luxury |
Life |
2 |
|
Diversified |
|
|
Beverages Tech |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
8 |
gas1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
6 |
|
2 |
|
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
3 |
|
10 Harmony |
|
*Priced at market close on 26 March 2019.
Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Renaissance Capital
15