- •Contents
- •Revisions to our forecasts, TPs and ratings
- •Investment stance
- •Capital cycle favours rising returns
- •Comfortable balance sheets and supportive dividend potential
- •Value relative to other stocks
- •Yield potential through the cycle
- •Mid-cycle cash generation offers supportive yields
- •Where to hide if you are bearish
- •What to buy if you are bullish
- •Limited lives weighing down IRR
- •Yields should compensate for limited lives
- •Positive earnings momentum continues to support share prices
- •Commodity price revisions
- •Commodity section
- •Commodity section
- •Preference for base metals over steelmaking materials
- •Earnings revisions
- •Risks and catalysts
- •Peer comp charts
- •Commodity price and exchange rate forecasts
- •Important publications
- •African Rainbow Minerals
- •Alrosa
- •Anglo American
- •Assore
- •Exxaro
- •Glencore
- •Kumba Iron ore
- •NorNickel
- •Rio Tinto
- •Rusal
- •Vale
- •Gold Fields
- •Harmony
- •Polymetal
- •Anglo American Platinum
- •Lonmin
- •Northam
- •Royal Bafokeng Platinum
- •Sasol
- •Disclosures appendix
vk.com/id446425943
Important publications
13-Mar-2019 |
Platinum Group Metals – Incentive prices emerge as smog clears |
26-Nov-2018 |
Global: Chinese fuel cell demand – Clearing the fog |
13-Nov-2018 |
South Africa: Chinese platinum jewellery demand – Down, but definitely not out |
24-Oct-2018 |
South Africa: Exxaro and South32’s SAEC - A match made in heaven? |
18-Oct-2018 |
South Africa/Russia: Gold - Safe-haven appeal back in vogue? |
27-Aug-2018 |
South Africa: Mondi Ltd - Tailwinds may dissipate |
23-Aug-2018 |
South Africa: Sasol Ltd – Positive momentum, but can it crack? |
16-Aug-2018 |
Global: Russian Metals & Mining – Victims of their own success? |
13-Aug-2018 |
South Africa: Impala Platinum – Finally, a plan with defined milestones |
10-Aug-2018 |
Russian Metals & Mining: Proposed tax increases |
23-July-2018 |
Global: Metals & Mining – ESG: Decoding the bigger picture |
18-June-2018 |
Global: Draft SA Mining Charter – Unlikely to grow value |
14-May-2018 |
Global: Metals & Mining – Not reflecting improved fundamentals |
14-May-2018 |
EEMEA: Steel companies – We still see value |
14-May-2018 |
Alrosa – Tailwinds dissipating –Transfer of coverage |
23-Apr-18 |
Global: Metals & Mining – Evolving nature of the PGM industry |
12-Apr-18 |
Global: Metals & Mining– Unpacking iron ore margins |
8-Feb-18 |
Russia/South Africa: Gold mining – Optionality vs long-term value |
5-Feb-18 |
Russia: PJSC Polyus – Best quality assets – BUY |
5-Feb-18 |
Russia: Polymetal International – Yield underpin, attractive growth – BUY |
17-Jan-18 |
Global: Metals & Mining – The transformers |
2-Nov-17 |
South Africa: ArcelorMittal South Africa – Not a ‘steel’ yet – SELL |
21-Sep-17 |
Global: Metals & Mining – Offering superior IRR |
12-Sep-17 |
South Africa: Sasol Ltd – Unpacking LCCP guidance and market dynamics |
10-Jul-17 |
South Africa: Sappi – Repositioning for growth |
16-Jun-17 |
South Africa: Metals & Mining: SA Mining Charter – Negative for the industry |
13-Jun-17 |
South Africa: Metals & Mining: SA Mining Charter – Measuring exposure and compliance |
7-Jun-17 |
Global: Metals & Mining sensitivities – Yield potential through the cycle |
20-Mar-17 |
Global: Metals & Mining: Copper – Running hard to stand still |
23-Jan-17 |
Global: Metals & Mining – Panning for value: growth vs value |
5-Dec-16 |
Global: Metals & Mining – Less is more |
9-Sep-16 |
Global: Metals & Mining – Wheel of fortune |
23-Aug-16 |
South Africa: Cracking the surface of the gold rally |
4-Jul-16 |
South Africa: Mondi – Boxing clever – BUY |
24-Jun-16 |
South Africa: Sasol Ltd – Growth at the expense of value – HOLD |
20-Jan-16 |
Global: Metals & Mining – The long (term value) and short (term risks) of it |
9-Dec-15 |
Global: Metals & Mining – Quantifying capacity closures |
23-Nov-15 |
Global: Metals & Mining – Efficiency: Survival of the fittest |
14-Sep-15 |
CIS Metals & Mining: Seeing value in challenging times |
14-Sep-15 |
Global: Metals & Mining – Searching for survivors |
3-Jul-15 |
Global: Metals & Mining – Panning for value |
23-Mar-15 |
Global: Metals & Mining – Commodity bear provides long-term value |
19-Jan-15 |
Global: Metals & Mining – Value sector |
4-Dec-14 |
Global: Metals & Mining – Approaching trough margins, but P/Es could de-rate |
13-Oct-14 |
Global: Productivity & efficiency benchmarking – Focus on the platinum sector |
11-Sep-14 |
South Africa: Metals & Mining – Falling iron ore prices outweigh self-help |
20-Jun-14 |
Global: Commodities: Iron ore – Cost support falls to $90/t by 2016E |
20-Jun-14 |
Global: Mining: Tide going out for iron ore – Stick with quality as cash flow evaporates |
24-Mar-14 |
Global: Mining: Harvest time – Cash flowing back to shareholders |
20-Jan-14 |
Global: Nine reasons to be more bullish on miners |
11-Nov-13 |
Global: Mining – Not a growth sector – Struggling to find value |
Renaissance Capital
1 April 2019
Metals & Mining
63