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16.7. Development

16.7.1. Reading (skimming, scanning for subject and language study)

16.7.1.1. Read the text “The Business Cycle” and make a synopsis of it.

The Business Cycle

The subject of our unit is the cyclic nature of economic development and the impact of economic

cycles on the market situation. To gain a better understanding of the essence of the cycle let

us have a look at different points of view on its definition.

The business cycle is a well-observed economic phenomenon, though it often occurs on a generally

upward growth path and has a variable time span, typically of the order of five years. It h s

been a matter of government policy in Western economies to dampen the amplitude, that is, the

height of the peaks and depths of the troughs, of the cycle so that the trend path of output is followed

without much fluctuation.

Several suggestions have been put forward as to the cause of cycles. The best known, developed

by Samuelson*, Hicks**, Goodwin***, Phillips**** and Kalecki***** in the 1940s and 1950s, combines

the multiplier with the accelerator theory of investment (accelerator—multiplier model), hi

certain cases, investment can be positively related to output one period back, and negatively relat

ed to output two periods back. This can cause an oscillating path for income. This account quite

plausibly requires that investment is based upon companies’ expectations of future growth; but

rather less plausibly relies upon these expectations being drawn from a naive extrapolation of what

happened in the last period.

Friedman, in his analysis of US monetary history, notes the correlation between money supply

and economic activity and suggests that the business cycle is a monetary phenomenon. Several

theories of the cycle embrace the notion of rational expectations, or the idea that expectations a

more forward looking. New Keynesianism suggests that fluctuations in aggregate demand accou n t

* Samuelson, Paul Anthony (1915— ) — американский ученый-экономист.

** Hicks, Sir John Richard (1904-1989) — британский ученый-экономист.

*** Goodwin, Richard M. (1913-1996) — итальянский ученый-экономист.

**** Phillips, Alban William Housego (1914-1975) — британский ученый-экономист.

***** Kalecki Michal (1899—1970) — польский экономист и статистик.

232

for the cycle. New classical economics explains it in terms of unanticipated fluctuations in demand.

More recently, attention has been paid to the effects of shocks to the economy from technology

and taste changes. These “real” phenomena can, it is suggested, account for many economic fluctuations

(real business cycle theory). There has been much debate on the effectiveness of policymakers’

attempts to dampen the cycle (policy ineffectiveness theorem), and there is a broad consensus

that governments should make strenuous efforts to avoid inflaming it.

Commentary and Notes to Text 16.7.1.1

1. Upward growth path — восходящая траектория (роста)

2. time span — временной промежуток

3. to dampen the amplitude — смягчить (уменьшить) амплитуду

4. to be related to... — быть соотнесенным с...

5. an oscillating path — колеблющаяся траектория

6. plausibly — вероятно, с большой долей правдоподобности

7. to draw from — выводить из (проистекать из)

8. rational expectations — рациональные ожидания

9. account for the cycle — служат причиной, основой цикла

10. the effects of shocks — эффекты шоков

11. make strenuous efforts — прилагать всемерные усилия

16.7.1.2. Read, translate the text “Elements of the Stabilization Policy of the Business Cycle”

and answer the question: What measures do governments take to stabilize the business cycle?

Elements o f the Stabilization Policy o f the Business Cycle

All governments are compelled to take measures to sustain the economic stability of the country,

dampening, if possible, the phases of the business cycle. That is why we consider the government

actions aimed at reducing fluctuations in national income as an element of the stabilization

policy. Such policy — to expand demand when unemployment exists and reduce demand when