INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

Abstract

Ammonia is the starting point for all mineral nitrogen fertilisers, forming a bridge between the nitrogen in the air and the food we eat. Around 70% of ammonia is used to make fertilisers, with the remainder used for a wide range of industrial applications, such as plastics, explosives and synthetic fibres. Ammonia may also serve as a low-carbon energy vector in the future, but that application is not considered within the core analytical scope of this technology roadmap. Ammonia production accounts for around 2% of total final energy consumption and 1.3% of CO2 emissions from the energy system. An increasingly numerous and affluent global population will lead to growth in ammonia production, during a period in which governments around the world have declared that emissions from the energy system must head towards net zero.

This technology roadmap uses scenario analysis to explore three possible futures for ammonia production. In the Stated Policies Scenario the industry follows current trends, making incremental improvements but falling well short of a sustainable trajectory. In the Sustainable Development Scenario the sector adopts the technologies and policies required to put it on a pathway aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario describes a trajectory for the ammonia industry that is compatible with reaching net zero emissions globally for the energy system by 2050. The roadmap concludes with a chapter outlining the necessary roles and actions of key stakeholders, namely governments, producers, and financial and research institutions, and establishes milestones and decision points.

Acknowledgements

This report was prepared by the Energy Technology Policy Division within the Directorate on Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks of the International Energy Agency. The study was designed and directed by Timur Gül (Head of the Energy Technology Policy Division). The analysis and production was co-ordinated by Araceli Fernández Pales (Head of the Technology Innovation Unit) and Peter Levi. The main authors were Sara Budinis, Alexandre Gouy, Peter Levi, Hana Mandová and Tiffany Vass.

Several colleagues across the agency contributed analytical input, including Julien Armijo, Jose Miguel Bermudez Menendez, Tomás de Oliveira Bredariol, Uwe Remme and Jacopo Tattini. Valuable comments and feedback were provided by IEA senior management and other colleagues within the IEA, in particular, Tanguy de Bienassis, Ilkka Hannula, Paul Hugues and Keisuke Sadamori. Thanks also go to Jon Custer, Astrid Dumond, Tanya Dyhin, Merve Erdem, Grace Gordon, Jad Mouawad, Jethro Mullen, Rob Stone, Julie Puech, Therese Walsh and Wonjik Yang of the IEA Communications and Digital Office for their help in producing the report. Caroline Abettan, Reka Koczka, Diana Louis and Per-Anders Widell provided essential support.

Justin French-Brooks carried responsibility for editing.

The work could not have been undertaken without the financial support provided by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development via the Shareholder Special Fund.

The International Fertilizer Association and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development provided valuable feedback and support throughout the project, in particular by facilitating communication with fertiliser companies and other experts, including at multiple in-person and online workshops. They also provided analytical feedback during the modelling phase and submitted detailed comments during the peer review process.

Many experts from outside the IEA reviewed the report and provided comments and suggestions of great value. They include:

The individuals and organisations that contributed to this study are not responsible for any opinions or judgements it contains. The views expressed in the study are not necessarily views of the IEA’s member countries or of any particular funder or collaborator. All errors and omissions are solely the responsibility of the IEA.