- •Abstract
- •Acknowledgements
- •Table of contents
- •List of figures
- •List of tables
- •List of boxes
- •Executive summary
- •Absent a change in course, ammonia production would continue to take an environmental toll
- •Towards more sustainable ammonia production
- •Near-zero-emission ammonia production requires new infrastructure, innovation and investment
- •Enabling more sustainable ammonia production
- •Chapter 1. Ammonia production today
- •Ammonia and society
- •Nitrogen fertilisers: An indispensable input to our modern agricultural systems
- •Demand, supply and trade
- •Ammonia production fundamentals
- •Current and emerging production pathways
- •A brief history of ammonia production
- •Natural gas reforming
- •Coal gasification
- •Near-zero-emission production routes currently being pursued
- •Economic considerations
- •Ammonia and the environment
- •Non-CO2 environmental impacts
- •Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from fertiliser production and use
- •Impacts on water, soil, air and ecosystems
- •What will happen tomorrow to today’s CO2 emissions from ammonia production?
- •Chapter 2. The future of ammonia production
- •Three contrasting futures for the ammonia industry
- •The outlook for demand and production
- •The outlook for nitrogen demand, nutrient use efficiency and material efficiency
- •Nitrogen demand drivers
- •Measures to improve nitrogen use efficiency
- •The outlook for production
- •Technology pathways towards net zero emissions
- •Energy consumption and CO2 emissions
- •A portfolio of mitigation options
- •Innovative technology pathways
- •Overview of global and regional technology trends
- •China
- •India
- •North America
- •Europe
- •Other key regions
- •Considerations for the main innovative technologies
- •Dedicated VRE electrolysis
- •CCUS-equipped pathways
- •Readiness, competitiveness and investment
- •An array of technology options at differing levels of maturity
- •Exploring key uncertainties
- •Future production costs
- •Uncertainty in technology innovation
- •Investment
- •Chapter 3. Enabling more sustainable ammonia production
- •The current policy, innovation and financing landscape
- •Ongoing efforts by governments
- •Carbon pricing and energy efficiency measures
- •Support for near-zero-emission technology RD&D and early commercial deployment
- •Policies for improving efficiency of use
- •International collaboration
- •Encouraging progress in the private sector
- •Initiatives involving financial institutions and investors
- •Recommendations for accelerating progress
- •Framework fundamentals
- •Establishing plans and policy for long-term CO2 emission reductions
- •Mobilising finance and investment
- •Targeted actions for specific technologies and strategies
- •Managing existing assets and near-term investment
- •Creating a market for near-zero-emission nitrogen products
- •Developing earlier-stage near-zero-emission technologies
- •Improving use efficiency for ammonia-base products
- •Necessary enabling conditions
- •Enhancing international co-operation and creating a level playing field
- •Planning and developing infrastructure
- •Tracking progress and improving data
- •Key milestones and decision points
- •Annexes
- •Abbreviations
- •Units of measure
Ammonia Technology Roadmap |
Chapter 1. Ammonia production today |
Towards more sustainable nitrogen fertiliser production |
|
Chapter 1. Ammonia production today
Highlights
•Ammonia makes an indispensable contribution to global agricultural systems through its use for mineral nitrogen fertilisers. About 70% of ammonia is used for fertilisers, while the remainder is used for various industrial applications, such as plastics, explosives and synthetic fibres. Ammonia may also serve as a low-carbon energy vector in the future, but that application is not considered within the core analytical scope of this roadmap.
•Ammonia production today is highly energy and emissions intensive. In 2020 global ammonia production accounted for around 2% (8.6 EJ) of total final energy consumption and 1.3% (450 Mt) of CO2 emissions from the energy system. How to reduce these CO2 emissions is the focus of this roadmap.
•The People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”) is the largest producer of ammonia today, accounting for 30% of production, with Russian Federation (hereafter “Russia”), the Middle East, the United States, the European Union and India accounting for a further 8-10% each. Ammonia is traded around the world, with global exports equating to about 10% of total production. Urea, its most common derivative, is traded even more widely, at just under 30%.
•Ammonia production currently relies on fossil fuels. Just over 70% of ammonia production is via natural gas-based steam reforming, while most of the remainder is via coal gasification. Near-zero emissions production methods are emerging, including electrolysis, methane pyrolysis and fossil-based routes with carbon capture and storage. The routes are typically 10-100% more expensive per tonne of ammonia produced than conventional routes, depending on energy prices and other regional factors.
•Ammonia production facilities have a long lifetime of typically 20-50 years. Depending how long they operate, existing plants could produce 3.9 to 13.5 Gt CO2 over their remaining lifetime, which is the equivalent of 9 to 30 years’ worth of ammonia production emissions in 2020. Strategies to address existing assets will be an important part of the industry’s energy transition.
•In addition to CO2 emissions from production, nitrogen fertilisers also result in nitrous oxide and CO2 emissions when applied to soils. While their overapplication can damage ecosystems, the higher yields enabled by fertilisers can reduce the conversion of natural ecosystems to agricultural production.
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