Ammonia Technology Roadmap	Chapter 2. The future of ammonia production
Towards more sustainable nitrogen fertiliser production

Development Goals (SDGs), including obtaining universal access to modern energy and a dramatic reduction in energy-related air pollution.

The rising number of net zero emissions targets announced by different countries was reflected within ETP 2020 using the Faster Innovation Case, which evaluated opportunities for reaching net zero emissions across the whole energy system by 2050 through technology innovation. In May of 2021 the IEA published Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector, which provides in-depth analysis of the necessary milestones for the energy system as a whole to achieve the goal stipulated in its title. This technology roadmap builds on the global results presented in that publication using the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.

None of the scenarios above should be treated as predictions or forecasts, but rather as possible pathways for the energy system, given a series of pre-stipulated goals and assumptions. The aim is that they collectively provide insights into the potential impacts and trade-offs that can occur, assisting decision makers in government and other stakeholders. For the latest information on the broader energy system context of the scenarios presented in this technology roadmap, please see the chemical sector and overall energy system analysis presented in Chapter 4 of ETP 2020 and Chapter 3 of Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.

The outlook for demand and production

Demand for ammonia is driven in large part by demand for mineral nitrogen fertilisers (around 70% of current ammonia production), with the remainder of demand stemming from a range of industrial applications (see Chapter 1). With respect to examining the potential future demand for fertilisers in particular, it is the nitrogen (N) nutrient content that is of most interest, irrespective of the specific fertiliser product that is used. Industrial N demand can also be quantified in the same units. In this technology roadmap we only deal with demand for mineral N, which is initially produced in the form of ammonia – demand for nitrogen as part of the broader naturally occurring nitrogen cycle or in future uses for energy applications are not included within our core scope (see Box 1.1).

In 2020 annual global N demand reached 152 Mt. In the Stated Policies Scenario demand for nitrogen grows by almost 40% by 2050 relative to today, reaching 208 Mt, driven largely by economic and population growth. A stronger push on nutrient use and material efficiency strategies leads to slower growth in the Sustainable Development Scenario and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, such that nitrogen demand is about 10% lower in 2050 relative to the Stated

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