Ammonia Technology Roadmap	Chapter 3. Enabling more sustainable ammonia production
Towards more sustainable nitrogen fertiliser production

border tariffs, and for buyers willing to pay a premium for near-zero-emission product. Aligning data reporting and labelling efforts with sustainable finance classifications would be beneficial to provide consistency and reduce the data reporting burden.

Key actions

Governments: promote better collection and reporting of data on emissions and energy use, perhaps through mandatory reporting; develop improved reporting and performance evaluation schemes; work towards increased transparency and public availability of data, including international efforts to increase data availability across countries; collaborate with industry to define international standards for nitrogen fertiliser CO2 intensity labelling.

Ammonia industry: track own emissions and energy progress; identify opportunities for improvement and share best practices; improve data reporting to data collection schemes, including timeliness and detail (e.g. production tonnage by product type); engage in efforts to standardise CO2 intensity labelling.

Farmers: fully participate in data collection initiatives on fertiliser use and efficiency.

Researchers and non-governmental organisations: help develop near-zero- emission nitrogen fertiliser production and sustainable food production labelling schemes.

Key milestones and decision points

The Sustainable Development Scenario and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario both require a massive transformation of the ammonia industry in only a few decades (Table 3.2). The next decade – from now to 2030 – is a critical window to lay the groundwork for long-term success. Both scenarios require similar actions at a rapid pace, with the pace and degree of progress accelerated in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. Many of the emission reductions in the short term will come from efficiency upgrades to existing emissions-intensive assets, deploying commercially available near-zero-emission technologies and accelerating fertiliser use efficiency. In addition to these short-term reductions, the next ten years require strong and co-ordinated action on multiple fronts to prepare for deeper emission reductions from 2030 onward.

Important actions this decade include the following:

Establish long-term CO2 reduction plans, policies and finance mechanisms: considering the long lifetimes of ammonia plants and the lead times needed for infrastructure build-out, it is critical to long-term success to establish reliable policies, support mechanisms and planning initiatives as early as possible. This

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Ammonia Technology Roadmap	Chapter 3. Enabling more sustainable ammonia production
Towards more sustainable nitrogen fertiliser production

would send a strong market signal on the need for change and enable a smoother transition. Within the next few years, governments should have in place plans for the ammonia industry transition, including a decision on whether to pursue hydrogen or CCS or a combination of both. These plans should be underpinned by policies creating an initial market for near-zero-emission fertilisers and other ammonia-based products, aligning incentives for continued deployment of near- zero-emission technology in the long term and mobilising finance for the necessary investment. Action to create a level playing field internationally also needs to begin in the next few years.

Pursue better technology performance and fertiliser use efficiency: early emission reductions can be achieved through readily available and easier to implement measures. On the production side, energy and emissions can be saved by improving plant process operations and integrating BAT. Meanwhile on the demand side, farmers – supported by agronomists and planning tools – can work to maximise the efficiency of fertiliser use. Not only would this enable shorter-term emission reductions, but it would also lay the foundation for long-term lower demand for fertilisers. This eases the burden by reducing the absolute number of near-zero-emission ammonia plants that need to be deployed.

Build supporting infrastructure and incorporate plant readiness: the co-ordinated planning and development of supporting infrastructure – including for CO2 transport and storage, low-emission electricity generation and hydrogen production – will take time. Planning should begin immediately, with build-out from the mid-2020s so that infrastructure is ready for use by the end of the decade. Ammonia producers should already begin preparing to use near-zero-emission technologies. Operators of existing plants should make plans in recognition of the decline in CO2 intensity needed just one investment cycle away – they may include retrofitting to incorporate lower-emission technologies or retiring the plant early. New plants should be built with near-zero-emission technologies, or at a minimum be retrofit-ready, and siting should be considered within industrial clusters that enables easier access to shared supporting infrastructure.

RD&D: large-scale demonstration of ammonia production with electrolytic hydrogen and methane pyrolysis will expand the portfolio of options available for near-zero-emission production. Ongoing R&D can also help bring down the cost of technologies related to low-carbon production routes. Government financial support and co-ordination can give a strong push to innovation over the next decade, enabling smoother technology roll-out thereafter. Additionally, preparations can already begin on demand-pull mechanisms to create a market that supports higher-cost near-zero-emission nitrogen fertiliser production.

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Ammonia Technology Roadmap	Chapter 3. Enabling more sustainable ammonia production
Towards more sustainable nitrogen fertiliser production

Global ammonia industry technology milestone requirements for meeting the Sustainable Development Scenario and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario

Technology

Reduction in direct CO2 emissions relative to 2020

Share of production via near-zero- emission routes

Share of production with CO2 utilised for urea synthesis

	2020			2030					2050
			SDS			NZE		SDS			NZE
	-	21%		25%			73%		96%
	0.4%		10%			12%		50%			73%
	23%	27%		27%			25%		21%

Hydrogen demand (Mt H2)	33	37	37	41	41

On-site electrolyser capacity (GW)		0
CO2	captured for storage (Mt CO2)	2
CO2	captured for utilisation (Mt CO2)	130

29	29	112	171
15	24	91	101
139	139	107	92

Notes: SDS = Sustainable Development Scenario; NZE = Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. Near-zero-emission routes exclude production with CO2 captured and utilised for urea production.

Building out near-zero-emission capacity is at the heart of the challenge. Following the Sustainable Development Scenario pathway, in each year between now and 2030, about two ammonia plants would need to be equipped with CCS (each capturing 1 Mt CO2/yr including both process and fuel emissions, and producing 0.5 Mt/yr ammonia) and four ammonia plants would need to be built with electrolytic hydrogen (each producing 0.5 Mt/yr ammonia). From the early 2030s onwards, nearly all new capacity additions in the ammonia industry should employ near-zero-emission technologies. This entails equipping four ammonia plants with CCS and building about five electrolytic-based ammonia plants each year from 2030 to 2050. Policy stringency and ambition should continue to ramp up over the forthcoming decades, such that by 2050, 50% of ammonia production employs near-zero-emission technologies, in addition to 25% utilising CO2 for urea production.

The scale of the challenge cannot be understated. Thus, early decisive action and sustained co-operation over the long term among stakeholders – both regionally and internationally – will be critical to making the clean energy transition pathway to 2050 and beyond achievable for the ammonia industry.

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