Статистика пожаров / Центр пожарной статистики CTIF / ctif_report10_world_fire_statistics_2005

World fire statistics / Мировая пожарная статистика / Weltfeuerwehrstatistik

Table 22.10-11: Development of the fire numbers, her victims and the fire risks in the Netherlands (1985-1999)

Таблица 22.10-11: Динамика пожаров, их жертв и пожарных рисков в Нидерландах в 1985-1999 гг.

Tabelle 22.10-11: Entwicklung der Brandzahlen, ihrer Opfer und der Brandrisiken in den Niederlande (19851999)

Year/год/Jahr														1985	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999
E (1000000)														14,49	14,95	15,07	15,17	15,27	15,38	15,45	15,53	15,63	15,70	15,80
F (1000)														33,4	42,4	42,4	40,0	41,0	39,8	46,1	55,2	49,5	44,0	48,1
FB (1000)														6,7	6,6	6,9	6,3	6,8	6,4	7,1	7,8	7,9	7,2	7,1
D (1000)														0,079	0,104	0,98	0,089	0,084	0,084	0,082	0,125	0,67	0,076	0,073
DB (1000)														0,051	0,060	0,059	0,037	0,039	0,042	0,042	0,052	0,038	0,040	0,046
R							F							2,3	2,8	2,8	2,6	2,7	2,6	3,0	3,6	3,2	2,8	3,0
								3
1										E
		10
R	B					F B								0,5	0,4	0,5	0,4	0,4	0,4	0,5	0,5	0,5	0,5	0,4
									3
1										E
			10
R						D								0,2	0,2	2,3	0,2	0,2	0,2	0,2	0,2	1,4	0,2	0,2
								2
2										F
		10
B						DB								0,8	0,9	0,9	0,6	0,6	0,7	0,6	0,7	0,5	0,6	0,6
R2
							2		F		B
	10
R							D							0,5	0,7	6,5	0,6	0,5	0,5	0,5	0,8	4,3	0,5	0,5
								5
3										E
		10
R	B					DB								0,4	0,4	0,4	0,2	0,3	0,3	0,3	0,3	0,2	0,3	0,3
									5
3										E
			10
R	S								(NLG)					57,9	90,7	52,8	64,5	82,4	70,9	64,6	79,7	78,0	77,9	82,6
4
	E

4
									R 1
3									R 2
									R 3
2
1
0
1 9 8 9	1 9 9 0	1 9 9 1	1 9 9 2	1 9 9 3	1 9 9 4	1 9 9 5	1 9 9 6	1 9 9 7	1 9 9 8
Fig. 22.10-8: General fire risks R1, R2, and R3 in the South Korea (1989-1998)
Рис. 22.10-8: Пожарные риски R1, R2, и R3				в Южней Корее за 1989-1998 гг.
Bild 22.10-8: Generelle Brandrisiken R1, R2, und R3 in Korea (Süd) im Zeitraum von 1989 bis 1998

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Table 22.10-12: Development of fire risks R1 and R4 in the City of Dortmund (Germany) - 1965-1999

Таблица 22.10-12: Динамика пожарных рисков R1 и R4 в городе Дортмунде (Германия) за 1965-1999 гг.

Tabelle 22.10-12: Entwicklung der Brandrisiken R1 and R4 in der Stadt Dortmund (Deutschland) - 1965-1999

Year/год/Jahr								1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1997	1998	1999
E (1000000)								0,653	0,643	0,626	0,609	0,577	0,606	0,602	0,595	0,589	0,589
F (1000)								0,885	1,659	1,788	2,425	2,004	2,638	2,346	2,562	2,276	2,167
M (1000)								2367	7278	7312	8173	11295	27227	27017	23512	19074	51139
R				F				1,356	2,581	2,855	3,981	3,474	4,352	3,900	4,304	3,863	3,682
					3
1
	10					E
R	S					(DM)		3,6	11,3	11,7	13,4	19,6	44,9	44,9	39,5	32,4	86,9
4
	E

Table 22.10-13: Development of fire risks R1, R2 and R3 in the City of London (UK) - 1970-2000

Таблица 22.10-13: Динамика пожарных рисков R1, R2 и R3 в г. Лондоне (Великобритания, 1970-2000 гг.)

Tabelle 22.10-13: Entwicklung der Brandrisiken R1, R2 and R3 in London (Großbritannien) - 1970-2000

Year/год/Jahr							1970	1976	1980	1988	1990	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000
E (1000000)							7,20	7,28	6,89	6,74	6,74	7,00	7,00	7,00	7,00	7,00
F (1000)							51,835	63,524	46,645	48,815	55,145	55,679	47,252	41,171	47,56	48,203
D (1000)							0,142	0,128	0,196	0,13	0,124	0,089	0,107	0,079	0,105	0,056
R			F				7,2	8,7	6,8	7,2	8,2	8,0	6,8	5,9	6,8	6,9
				3
1					E
	10
R			D				0,3	0,2	0,4	0,3	0,2	0,2	0,2	0,2	0,2	0,1
				2
2					F
	10
R			D				2,0	1,8	2,8	1,9	1,8	1,3	1,5	1,1	1,5	0,8
				5
3					E
	10

9
8
7
6
5
R1
4
3
2
1			Dortmund		London		Moscow
0
1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000

Fig. 22.10-9: Risk R1 “Fires on 1.000 inhabitants” in the cities of Dortmund, London and Moscow (1965-2000)

Рис. 22.10-9: Риск R1 «Пожары на 1.000 чел.» в г. Дортмунде, Лондоне и Москве за 1965-2000 гг.

Bild 22.10-9: Risiko R1 “Brände je 1.000 Einwohner” in Dortmund, London und Moskau für 1965-2000

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Table 22.10-14: Development of fire risks R1, R2 and R3 in the City of Moscow (Russia) - 1990-2000

Таблица 22.10-14: Динамика пожарных рисков R1, R2 и R3 в г. Москве (Россия, 1990-2000 гг.)

Tabelle 22.10-14: Entwicklung der Brandrisiken R1, R2 and R3 in Moskau (Russland) - 1990-2000

Year/год/Jahr												1990	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000
E (1000000)												8,00	8,30	8,50	9,00	9,50	10,00	10,00	10,00	10,00	10,00
	F (1000)											23,07	25,82	26,59	25,56	23,71	21,69	20,34	17,84	15,67	14,48
	FB (1000)											17,99	21,17	21,80	20,45	18,96	17,88	16,26	13,66	14,5	14,1
	D (1000)											0,144	0,312	0,454	0,527	0,472	0,416	0,359	0,317	0,361	0,347
	DB (1000)											*	*	*	*	*	*	0,318	0,265	*	*
R						F						2,9	3,1	3,1	2,8	2,5	2,2	2,0	1,8	1,6	1,4
							3
	1								E
			10
R		B			F B							2,2	2,6	2,6	2,3	2,0	1,8	1,6	1,4	1,5	1,4
								3
	1								E
			10
R						D						0,6	1,2	1,7	2,1	2,0	1,9	1,8	1,8	2,3	2,4
							2
	2								F
			10
R	B				DB							*	*	*	*	*	*	2,0	1,9	*	*
						2				B
2								F
		10
R						D						1,8	3,8	5,3	5,9	5,0	4,2	3,6	3,2	3,6	3,5
							5
	3								E
			10
R		B			DB							*	*	*	*	*	*	3,2	2,7	*	*
								5
	3								E
			10

* no data available / нет данных / keine Daten vorhanden

4,5

4,0

3,5

3,0

2,5

R1

2,0

1,5

1,0

0,5

0,0

1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996

Note: during 1944-1989 Western Berlin only

Fig. 22.10-10: Risk R1 “Fires on 1.000 inhabitants” in the citiy of Berlin (Germany) for 100 years (1900-1999)

Рис. 22.10-10: Риск R1 «Пожары на 1.000 чел.» в г. Берлине за 100 лет (1900-1999 гг.)

Bild 22.10-10: Risiko R1 “Brände je 1.000 Einwohner” in der Stadt Berlin (Deutschland) für 1900-1999

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Table 22.10-15: Development of fire risks R1, R2 and R3 in 70 cities of the world (average meaning 1996-2002)

Таблица 22.10-15: Динамика пожарных рисков R1, R2 и R3 в 70 городах мира (средные за 1996-2002 гг.)

Tabelle 22.10-15: Entwicklung der Brandrisiken R1, R2 und R3 in 70 Städten der Welt (Mittelwerte für 19962002)

C	E	F	D	R	F					R	D					R		D
							3						2						5
				1						2						3
					10			E			10			F			10			E
Sao Paulo	16,00	8,385	0,037			0,5					0,4							0,2
Delhi	14,37	12,715	0,293			0,9					2,3							2,0
Tokyo	12,02	6,883	0,137			0,6					2,0							1,1
Moscow	10,40	16,722	0,388			1,6					2,3							3,7
Seoul	10,33	7,301	0,085			0,7					1,2							0,8
Teheran	8,00	10,659	0,040			1,3					0,4							0,5
Jakarta	7,58	0,874	0,040			0,1					4,6							0,5
New-York	7,00	59,753	0,163			8,5					0,3							2,3
London	7,00	49,196	0,083			7,0					0,2							1,2
Hong Kong	6,90	11,394	0,027			1,7					0,2							0,4
Paris	6,19	19,036	0,047			3,1					0,2							0,8
Bangkok	5,66	2,020	0,022			0,4					1,1							0,4
Damascus	5,50	1,923	0,039			0,3					2,0							0,7
Hochimin	5,29	0,198	0,014			0,0					7,1							0,3
St. Peterburg	4,90	9,882	0,294			2,0					3,0							6,0
Singapore	4,50	5,633	0,006			1,3					0,1							0,1
Sydney	4,00	30,000	0,000			7,5					0,0							0,0
Rome	3,77	11,760	0,000			3,1					0,0							0,0
Los Angeles	3,69	12,920	0,042			3,5					0,3							1,1
Berlin	3,38	11,744	0,040			3,5					0,3							1,2
Buenos Aires	3,00	4,538	0,001			1,5					0,0							0,0
Chicago	2,80	22,213	0,061			7,9					0,3							2,2
Hanoi	2,79	0,162	0,010			0,1					6,2							0,4
Taipei	2,63	0,868	0,018			0,3					2,1							0,7
Kiev	2,59	3,293	0,077			1,3					2,3							3,0
Toronto	2,57	0,968	0,000			0,4					0,0							0,0
Tunis	2,32	1,310	0,000			0,6					0,0							0,0
Tashkent	2,16	2,264	0,043			1,0					1,9							2,0
Bucharest	2,03	1,041	0,022			0,5					2,1							1,1
Belgrade	2,00	2,258	0,032			1,1					1,4							1,6
Colombo	2,00	0,402	0,028			0,2					7,0							1,4
Melbourne	1,92	9,793	0,009			5,1					0,1							0,5
Vancouver	1,83	2,282	0,004			1,2					0,2							0,2
Budapest	1,80	3,100	0,027			1,7					0,9							1,5
Minsk	1,73	2,941	0,055			1,7					1,9							3,2
Warsaw	1,63	8,378	0,085			5,1					1,0							5,2

C – City / город / Stadt

E – Population in million / Население, млн. чел. / Einwohner in Mio. F – Number of fires in thousands / Пожары, тыс. / Brände in 1.000

D - Number of fire deaths in thousands / Погибшых при пожарах, тыс. чел. / Brandtote insgesamt in 1.000

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Table 22.10-15: Development of fire risks R1, R2 and R3 in 70 cities of the world (Part 2)

Таблица 22.10-15: Динамика пожарных рисков R1, R2 и R3 в 70 городах мира (Часть 2)

Tabelle 22.10-15: Entwicklung der Brandrisiken R1, R2 und R3 in 70 Städten der Welt (Teil 2)

C	E	F	D	R	F					R	D					R		D
							3						2						5
				1						2						3
					10			E			10			F			10			E
Vienna	1,61	3,671	0,017			2,3					0,5							1,1
Barcelona	1,50	5,067	0,006			3,4					0,1							0,4
Kuala Lumpur	1,40	0,724	0,004			0,5					0,5							0,3
Tbilisi	1,29	2,323	0,025			1,8					1,1							1,9
Erevan	1,25	0,537	0,006			0,4					1,1							0,5
Copenhagen	1,21	2,152	0,010			1,8					0,5							0,9
Prague	1,20	2,417	0,009			2,0					0,4							0,8
Athens	1,20	4,949	0,000			4,1					0,0							0,0
Sofia	1,18	2,230	0,016			1,9					0,7							1,4
Almati	1,14	1,193	0,035			1,1					3,0							3,1
Dallas	1,08	8,608	0,016			7,9					0,2							1,5
Brussels	0,97	2,376	0,000			2,4					0,0							0,0
Lisbon	0,95	2,667	0,020			2,8					0,7							2,1
Oklend	0,89	0,263	0,000			0,3					0,0							0,0
Ulan-Bator	0,85	0,986	0,026			1,2					2,6							3,1
Zagreb	0,77	1,191	0,006			1,5					0,5							0,8
Riga	0,76	2,481	0,057			3,2					2,3							7,5
Kishiney	0,76	0,657	0,013			0,9					2,0							1,8
Stockholm	0,76	1,842	0,008			2,4					0,4							1,0
San Francisco	0,75	3,845	0,011			5,1					0,3							1,5
Jerusalem	0,75	6,700	0,003			8,9					0,0							0,4
Amsterdam	0,73	3,655	0,004			5,0					0,1							0,6
Bishkek	0,62	0,788	0,024			1,3					3,0							3,9
Vilnus	0,60	1,901	0,022			3,2					1,2							3,7
Benoni	0,60	1,500	0,000			2,5					0,0							0,0
Dushanbe	0,58	0,263	0,005			0,5					2,0							0,9
Zurich	0,56	0,631	0,000			1,1					0,0							0,0
Helsinki	0,55	1,050	0,010			1,9					1,0							1,9
Oslo	0,50	1,275	0,006			2,5					0,5							1,2
Haifa	0,47	4,200	0,000			8,9					0,0							0,0
Bratislava	0,45	1,437	0,011			3,2					0,8							2,4
Tallinn	0,42	4,525	0,028		10,9						0,6							6,7
Kuwait City	0,39	0,615	0,000			1,6					0,0							0,0
Tel-Aviv	0,38	4,000	0,009		10,5						0,2							2,4
Astana	0,32	0,536	0,029			1,7					5,3							8,9
Port Moresby	0,25	0,220	0,000			0,9					0,2							0,1
Begawan (B. S.)	0,23	0,357	0,002			1,6					0,6							0,9
Wellington	0,22	1,253	0,001			5,7					0,1							0,3
Kandy	0,15	0,079	0,001			0,5					0,6							0,3
Luxemburg	0,08	0,555	0,000			7,4					0,0							0,0

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22.11 – Reconstruction and forecast of the fire situation

Our understanding of the development of the fire situation (in a wide sense) during the 21st century was already described and explained in more detail and in view of different aspects in the previous chapters. This chapter is to illustrate different kinds of making forecasts regarding the fire development (the main fire risks) until 2050 (in a narrower sense).

Prognostications will be made on the basis of the real opportunities of a fire and risk management as it exists in the first half of the 21st century.

Among the basic fire risks, that means the quantitative characteristics for the realisation of concrete fire hazards, are:

the number of fires on 1.000 inhabitants per year,

the number of fire deaths on 100.000

inhabitants per year.

As already illustrated in the first chapter, at the end of the 20th century the values of both parameters were approximately 1.

Having available some reliable demographic prognoses and a sound vision about the dynamics of fire risks that considers certain purposive influence, one can make a pretty useful assessment of the fire situation in the whole world, on continents, in individual countries and regions. With regard to the whole word, such a prognosis can comprise a time period of some decades, but for individual countries it can be made for only some years in advance.

First of all, this logical scheme shall be applied to Russia. It is well-known that the population of Russia - being one of the largest countries worldwide by population, during the 90ies underwent significant decreases by some hundred thousands people each year. The reasons shall not be illustrated in this paper. In 1992, the population of Russia comprised 148,7 million; in 1999 it reduced to 146,7 million only. Following the prognoses set up by Russian demographers, this process will accelerate during the next years. Thus, 141-144 million inhabitants are prognosticated for 2005 and only 136-142 million for 2010.

These demographic forecasts shall be taken as basis for our prognosis of the main fire risks. The table 22.11-1 illustrates the data for the years 1993-1999. The data presented in table 22.11-1 are sufficient to compute a medium-term prognosis of fire risks in Russia for the period from 2000 to 2010 (table 22.11-2 and 22.11-3).

We seem it being necessary to make some comments about the figures given in the tables 22.11-2 and 22.11-3. First, we assume that - during the next 10 years - no changes whatsoever will arise in the regulations belonging to registration of fires in Russia. This is an obligatory prerequisite for setting-up the prognosis. Second, we assume that the social and economic conditions in Russia,

expected for the next 10 years, will not allow taking any significant measures for decreasing the fire risks. The four right-standing columns in the tables illustrate the "optimistic" situation (figures on the left) and the "pessimistic" situation (figures on the right) respectively. We can expect in any case that our prognosis will be correct. It becomes already obvious today that the fire situation in Russia will ease off - unfortunately mainly due to the decrease in population only. The causes of fire risks – however – will persist.

Table 22.11-1: Development of fire risks in Russia (1993-1999)

Таблица 22.11-1: Динамика значений пожарных рисков в России за 1993-1999 гг.

Tabelle 22.11-1: Entwicklung der Brandrisiken in Russland (1993-1999)

Year	R		F				R		D
Год
				3						5
Jahr	1						3
		10			E			10			E
1993			2,2						9,2
1994			2,1					10,5
1995			2,1					10,5
1996			2					10,7
1997			1,8						9,3
1998			1,8						9,3
1999			1,8					10,1
Ø			2						9,9

R1 - fires on 1.000 inh. / пожары на 1.000 чел. / Brände auf 1.000 Einw.

R3 - fire deaths on 100.000 inh. / жертва пожаров на 100.000 чел. / Brandtote je 100.000 Einw.

Ø – Average / среднее /Mittelwert

Now, we will apply the same logical scheme to Germany. According to different statistics provided by the United Nations, Germany took the 7th place in the world ranking list of the most populous countries in 1950 (with 68 million inhabitants) and the 12th place in 1998 (with approximately 82 million inhabitants). From the year 2050 on, Germany will not any longer be among the 20 top-ranked countries. The official statistics clearly show for Germany an accelerating downward trend of the population. The population repeatedly fluctuated by some 10.000 during the last years. The reasons shall not be illustrated here as well. In 1997, the population of Germany was about 82,057 million; in 1998 it dropped to 82,037 million. According to the prognosis of the Federal Statistical Office, this process will continue and accelerate during the next years. Thus, a population of about 80,9-81,4 million is forecasted for 2010 and only 64,4-69,9 million for 2050.

These demographic forecast shall be taken as the basis for our prognosis of main fire risks. Table 22.11-4 shows the figures for 1993-1999. The data given in table 22.11-4 are sufficient to compute a mediumand long-term prognosis of the

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	fire risks in Germany for the period of 2000-2050		Table 22.11-2: Forecast of the number of fires and
	(table 22.11-5).		fire deaths in Russia until 2010
	Some short comments shall be made regarding		Таблица 22.11-2: Прогноз числа пожаров и
	the data illustrated in table 22.11-5. First, we		жэертб приних в России до 2010 г
	presume that there will not arise any changes in the		Tabelle 22.11-2: Prognose der Anzahl an Bränden
	rules of fire registration in Germany during the next		und Brandtoten in Russland bis 2010
	50 years. This is an obligatory prerequisite for
	setting-up the prognosis. Second, we assume for			Y	E	V	F	D
	both scenarios illustrated there (variant 1 -
				2000	145,5		262 - 291	13,8 - 14,7
	prognosis of population with calculated 100.000
					144,0	1.	230 - 259	13,0 - 13,7
	immigrants per year and variant 2 - prognosis of			2005
					141,2	2.	226 - 254	12,7 - 13,4
	population with calculated 200.000 immigrants per
					141,9	1.	227 - 255	12,1 - 13,5
	year) that the social and economic situation in			2010
	Germany will not allow to generate any significant				138,7	2.	222 - 250	11,8 - 13,2
	measures for decreasing the fire risks (for example,				136,0	3.	204 - 231	11,6 - 12,9
	no legal basis for introducing smoke detectors in
	dwelling houses, de-regulation of preventive fire		Y – Year / год / Jahr
	protection) during the next 50 years. The fire risks		E – population in mln / население, млн. чел. / Einwohner in
	R1 "fires on 1.000 inhabitants“ and R3 "fire deaths		Mio.
			V – Variant of the forecast / вариант прогноса / Variante der
	on 100.000 inhabitants" (table 22.11-6) were
			Prognose
	calculated to remain stable during the first years of		F – Number of fires in thousands / Пожары, тыс. /
	prognosis and to decline in the period from 2010 to		Brände in 1.000
	2050 (for both variants). This means that primarily		D – Number of fire deaths in thousands / Погибшие при
	the population prognosis influences the absolute		пожарах, тыс. чел. / Brandtote in 1.000
	values of fire risks for each prognosis year (as				As the development of the population is
	displayed in the two right columns). In view of
			fixed, we only have to assess the fire risks for the
	these development trends in the values we can
			individual periods. For the first half of the 20th
	make the following assumptions for the period from
			century, this assessment is relatively difficult. But
	2010 to 2050:
			for the second half of the century it is much easier,
	The proportion of children among the total
			as a large amount of reliable statistical data for
	population will drop (from 15,6% in 2000 to
			different countries worldwide is available for this
	11,9% in 2050), consequently the quantity of
			period. Particularly at the end of the 20th century,
	„arsons caused by children “ will decrease.
			the quantity of data available has significantly
	The quota of population aged over 65 will
			jumped up. Some additional considerations are
	increase from 16,7 (as today) to 28,7%.
			required to reconstruct the fire situation at the
	The general life expectancy of people will
			beginning of the 20th century: In the 20th century,
	increase (In 1990/92, the average life		the situation was as follows: Almost one half of the
	expectancy of new-born male children was
			population in the world was concentrated in only 4
	72,9 years, in 1996/98 already 74,4 years; and
			countries – China (20-25% of the world population,
	for 2025 we prognosticate 76,2 years).
			India (about 15%), the Russian Empire/USSR and
	Elderly people will handle fire risks more
			the United States. This proportion remained stable
	carefully.
			for about 9/10 of the century, up to the 90ies.
	The increasing share of women among the
					It is well-known that about 0,5 million
	group of elderly people will have positive
			fires per year were registered in the United States
	effects. (We assume in our prognosis that
			and about 50.000-70.000 in Russia at the beginning
	women are usually more careful in handling
			of the 20th century. It can be assumed with certainty
	fire).		that in India and China together not more than
	Besides this "optimistic" prognosis of the
			30.000-50.000 fires were registered. This
	fire situation in Germany, we shall also take into
			calculation is based on the development status of
	account possible development trends originating
			the economy in these countries. The industrial
	from rather "pessimistic" scenarios. Such scenarios
			development started only during the second half of
	- of course - will have certain consequences for the
			that century, thus there is a great difference
	development of fire-protection and fire-fighting.
			between the figures at the beginning and at the end
	This is the reason why we deviate from our own
			of the century. The registered number of fires today
	rule to make for single countries only short-term
			is about 300.000, this is a share of only 4% of all
	forecasts. A detailed review goes beyond the scope
			fires worldwide.
	of the present paper and is planned to be discussed
					In consequence we can sum up an amount
	in a publication at a later date.
			of about 0,6 million fires on 50% of the world
	Prior to applying the proposed method for
			population. This figure enables us to make the
	setting-up a long-term forecast of the world fire
			assumption, that worldwide 1-1,2 million fires were
	situation, we would like to use the same method for
			registered per year at the beginning of the 20th
	reconstruct the fire risks during the 20th	century,
			century, with the majority of these fires occurring
	starting with the year 1900.
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in the developed countries. In 1900, the world population was approximately 1600 million, that means the number of fires on 1.000 inhabitants can be calculated with 0,6–0,8 ("optimistic" variant) or 0,6–1,0 ("pessimistic" variant) respectively for the beginning of the 20th century. For the year 1900, the following data are documented: Berlin - 1 fire on 1.000 inhabitants, Budapest – 0,6; The Hague – 1,2; Florence – 0,8; London – 0,5; Malmö – 1,0; Paris – 0,6; Vienna – 0,5; New York - 1,7.

The assessment of the second important fire risk can be made as follows: Taking into account that the fire-fighting equipment of the fire brigades (particularly breathing protection) was technically imperfect in comparison to current technical standards or did not exist at all and that a preventive fire protection in constructions was just nascent, is shall be assumed that more people were killed by fire than at the end of the century. The data documented for St Petersburg may serve as example: At the end of the 20th century, 1 fire death came on 100 fires; in 1900, 20 fire deaths came on 1.000 fires - that is 1 fire death on only 50 fires. Further examples to illustrate this fire risk for the beginning of the 20th century may be given here: Belgium - 5,9 fire deaths on 100.000 inhabitants; Berlin – 1,0; Paris - 0,2, Vienna - 2,8; Ottawa – 1,7.

For confirming these figures, we collected certain additional information coming from more than 40 countries or cities worldwide, focussing on the period 1899-1901. The collected data were grouped and compared with other data. It shall be also considered here that single fire disasters seriously influenced the statistical averages. Thus, for example, one fire in the "Ringtheater" in Vienna in 1881 killed more people than all other fires at large registered in Austria. In result, the world fire risk for 1900 can be assessed with 1,0 – 2,0 fire deaths on 100.000 inhabitants.

We apply this figure as a benchmark for the beginning of the 20th century. Based on this figure, we can estimate an amount of 16.000–

22.400 people worldwide killed by fire at the beginning of the century. The corresponding parameters for the year 1900 are illustrated in table 22.11-7 / 22.11-8 (variant 1). For variant 2 a "pessimistic" fire situation was assumed. In total, the difference between the "minimal" and "maximal" fire risks is about 1,5. A wider spread of fire risks seems to be not realistic and not useful. Thus, we can assess the number of fires registered worldwide with 1-1,6 million ad the number of fire deaths with approximately 16.000-32.000 (for the year 1900).

Now, further aspects will be considered for reconstructing the development of the world fire risks. We assume that the development pace of fire risks of the world economy, accelerated by a permanent growth of economic interrelations, is exceeding the pace of the development of the "global fire protection system" (including the development of fire brigades). In consequence, the fire risks values increase. Towards the mid of the

20th century, they already increased by 1,5-2 times in comparison to the beginning of the century. It is clear that this process is not evenly spread. The developed industrial countries were much more faced by the consequences of increasing fire risks than the developing countries.

Table 22.11-3: Forecast of fire risks in Russia until 2010

Таблица 22.11-3: Прогноз пожарных рисков в России до 2010 г

Tabelle 22.11-3: Prognose der Brandrisiken in

Russland bis 2010

Year			R		F			R		D
Год	E	V
					3						5
Jahr			1					3
				10		E			10			E
2000	145,5		1,8 - 2,0					9,5 - 10,1
2005	144,0	1.	1,6 - 1,8					9,0 - 9,5
	141,2	2.	1,6 - 1,8					9,0 - 9,5
	141,9	1.	1,6 - 1,8					8,5 - 9,5
2010	138,7	2.	1,6 - 1,8					8,5 - 9,5
	136,0	3.	1,5 - 1,7					8,5 - 9,5

E – Population in mln / население, млн. чел. / Einwohner in Mio.

V – Variant of the forecast / вариант прогноса / Variante der Prognose

R1 - fires on 1.000 inh. / пожары на 1.000 чел. / Brände auf 1.000 Einw.

R3 - fire deaths on 100.000 inh. / жертва пожаров на 100.000 чел. / Brandtote je 100.000 Einw.

From the mid of the 20th century on (and particularly during its last quarter), the fire risks stabilised. The data displayed in the table 22.11-9 illustrate the development in the USA from 1900 to 1999 – as example. This tendency will continue during the 21st century – and not only in the USA. Stabilisation has several reasons: The developing countries may use the experience and best practice of the industrial states for their own industrial development. Modern means and methods of fire prevention and fire-fighting are adopted by them. The intensifying competition in the "fire protection industry" to capture new markets will support this process as well. To our mind, the values of fire risks will drop step by step, particularly during the second half of the 21st century.

Let us make now a forecast of the world fire situation until 2050 (table 22.11-10 / 22.11-11). The data are based on the demographic prognostications of the U.N. and on our assessment of fire risks.

Some comments are required for explaining table 22.11-10. The demographers of the U.N. have been analysing the development of the world population for some decades already (figure 22.11-1). The main objective of these forecasts was to get a better picture about the consequences a population explosion may have, particularly regarding the following aspects:

social (health, education),

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economic (poverty, employment),

number of fire deaths on 100.000 inhabitants was

to an increasing extent also ecologic (water,

surely much lower than towards the end of the 20th

raw materials, biosphere resources)

century, possibly by 5-10 times.

Respective problems will affect certain regions,

Table 22.11-4: Development of fire risks in

continents but also the whole world.

When estimating the dynamics of risks

Germany (1993-1999)

development we tried to consider both direct and

Таблица 22.11-4: Динамика значений пожарных

indirect parameters - that means the entirety of all

рисков в Германии за 1993-1999 гг.

technical and social achievements in the field of fire

Tabelle 22.11-4: Entwicklung der Brandrisiken in

prevention and fire-fighting. In the previous

Deutschland (1993-1999)

chapters we already illustrated some important

aspects, in particular:

Year

R

F

R

D

 the creation of fire-resistant substances,

Год

3

5

materials and products;

Jahr

1

E

3

E

10

10

 the formation of an ecologic culture of the

1993

2,8

0,9

international community;

1994

2,6

0,7

 the development of a more conscious

1995

2,5

0,7

relationship of people to fire safety problems in

1996

2,8

0,9

production and household.

1997

2,5

0,7

Based on these considerations and

1998

2,5

0,6

considering the non-linear character of the

development pace of the human civilisation, we

1999

2,3

0,7

changed the values describing the fire risks for the

Ø

2,6

0,8

first quarter of the 21st century only marginally. In

difference to that, the values for the year 2050 were

R1 - - fires on 1.000 inh. / пожары на 1.000 чел. / Brände auf

already reduced by 1,5-2 times. An additional

1.000 Einw.

argument for this prognosticated trend comes from

R3 - - fire deaths on 100.000 inh. / жертва пожаров на 100.000

some actual data belonging to the USA. The

чел. / Brandtote je 100.000 Einw.

Ø – Average / среднее /Mittelwert

number of fires on 1.000 inhabitants dropped there

from 13,1 (1980) to 6,7 (1999) – this is a reduction

Further it shall be taken into account that

by 2 times. The quantity of fire deaths on 100.000

complex constructions - skyscrapers, multi-storey

inhabitants also dropped – from 6,4 (1960) to 1,3

department stores or similar – did not exist at all,

(1999), as illustrated in table 22.11-9-7.

thus the evacuation of people out of burning objects

The forecasts for the whole world are

did not cause larger difficulties. At the beginning of

made applying deliberated and restrained

the first millennium, to our estimation, about

estimations. To our mind, 8-10 million fires with

20.000-25.000 fires broke out, during which

about 80.000-100.000 fire deaths are expected to be

possibly 200-250 people lost their life. The problem

registered per year during the first half of the 21st

of fire-fighting at that time was another– the lack of

century. As already illustrated in the previous

effective extinguishing agents and methods. Due to

chapters, it shall be also expected that the amount

these circumstances, fires some times reached

of all "fire costs" (damages and expenditures for

disastrous proportions, particularly in relatively

regulating the fire situation) may reach a value of

densely populated settlement areas. It might be that

1,5-1,7% of the GNP of the world economy, that

our estimation is undervalued by one magnitude,

means an increase by 1,5 times. The figures 22.11-

which is not unusual for a statistical reconstruction

2 and 22.11-3 show graphs illustrating the

of such a dimension. If so, the number of fires

summarised and averaged values of development of

would have been 300.000 per year and the number

the number of fires and the number of fire deaths

of fire deaths some thousands. However, our first

for the period 1900-2050, based on the data

assumption (original scenario) seems to be more

reflected in tables 22.11-10 and 22.11-11.

realistic.

As conclusion of this chapter, we will take

For the remote future it can be assumed

a look into the deep past and into the remote future.

that the world population will level off and stabilise

The reconstruction and forecast of the fire situation

at around 15.000 million. The values of the

is displayed in the tables 22.11-12 and 22.11-13. At

respective fire risks will – taking into account

the beginning of our era, about 230 million people

respective progress to be made in fire prevention –

lived on earth. It shall be considered the use of

decrease by the factor 10. We do not see any

energy was limited to mechanical energy and – on a

justification for a more optimistic prognosis.

small scale – thermal energy (most of the ignition

According to this forecast, about 12.000 million

sources used nowadays did not exist at that time –

people will live on earth at the beginning of the 21st

no matches nor cigarettes or similar). Open flames,

century, 3,6 million fires are expected to break out

as for example candles, flambeaus or fires in the

each year, causing approximately 48.000 fire

hearth, were handled with special care. Thus, we

deaths. In consequence, we can expect here the

assume fewer fire risks existing at that time. The

same situation as it existed in the mid of the 20th

number of fires on 1.000 inhabitants and the

century. The fire risks R1 and R3 are comparable to

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the situation that existed at the beginning of the 19th century (see figures 22.11-4 and 22.11-5).

All fire risks assessed here are - of course - stochastic temporary functions. Certain additional variables that are not sufficiently considered so far shall be also involved in such an analysis and assessment (for example energy consumption, consumption of alcohol or tobacco, crime, unemployment etc.). It shall be emphasised here again that fire risks are complex temporary socioeconomic phenomena. The description of the analytical interrelations between these phenomena and their influence on the fire risks will be a task for the future.

22.11 – Прогнозы оãстановки с пожарами в мире

Наши представления о развитии ситуации с пожарами в ХХI в. (в широком смысле слова) уже неоднократно высказывались, формулировались и аргументировались в предыдущих разделах этой работы. В данном разделе мы хотим рассмотреть возможные подходы к построению прогнозов обстановки с пожарами (в собственном смысле слова) на Земле до 2050 г.

При этом исходить мы будем из реальных возможностей управления пожарными рисками в первой половине ХХI в. (для более долгосрочных прогнозов мы не имеем достаточно серьезной исходной информации).

Основными пожарными рисками, т.е. количественными характеристиками возможности реализации пожарной опасности, мы считаем, во-первых, число пожаров в год на 1000 чел. и, во-вторых, число погибших при пожарах за год, приходящееся на 100000 чел. Как показано в первом разделе этой работы, в конце ХХ в. оба значения пожарных рисков на Земле примерно равнялись единице.

Отсюда следует, что если располагать надежными демографическими прогнозами и иметь обоснованные представления о возможной динамике значений пожарных рисков в результате целенаправленного управления ими, то можно получить вполне разумные оценки обстановки с пожарами на планете в целом, на ее континентах, в отдельных регионах, странах и т.д. (на несколько десятилетий вперед для Земли и континентов и на несколько лет вперед - для регионов и стран).

Попробуем применить эту логическую схему сначала для России. Известно, что численность населения этой одной из крупнейших стран мира в 90-е годы ежегодно уменьшалась на несколько сот тысяч человек. Причины этого процесса мы здесь обсуждать не будем.

Если в 1992 г. население России составляло 148,7 млн. чел., то в 1999 г. оно равнялось уже только 146,7 млн. чел. По

прогнозам российских демографов в ближайшие годы этот процесс будет ускоряться так, что в 2005 г. численность населения России составит примерно 141 - 144 млн. чел., а в 2010 г. она будет равна 136 - 142 млн. чел.

Table 22.11-5: Forecast of the number of fires and fire deaths in Germany until 2050

Таблица 22.11-5: Прогноз числа пожаров и жертв при них в Германии до 2050 г

Tabelle 22.11-5: Prognose der Anzahl an Bränden und Brandtoten in Deutschland bis 2050

Y

E

V

F

D

	1993-99	82,0		210,2	619
	1999	82,1		192,7	600
	2010	80,9	1	186,1	556
		81,4	2	187,3	570
	2020	78,5	1	157,0	510
		80,2	2	160,3	521
	2030	74,8	1	134,6	450
		77,7	2	139,8	466
	2040	69,9	1	111,9	350
		74,2	2	118,7	371
	2050	64,4	1	96,6	290
		69,9	2	104,9	315

Y – Year / год / Jahr

E – population in mln / население, млн. чел. / Einwohner in Mio.

V – Variant of the forecast / вариант прогноса / Variante der Prognose

F – Number of fires in thousands / Пожары, тыс. / Brände in 1.000

D – Number of fire deaths in thousands / Погибшие при пожарах, тыс. чел. / Brandtote in 1.000

Примем эти демографические прогнозы за исходные данные для наших прогнозов и рассмотрим динамику значений основных пожарных рисков в России за 1993 - 1999 гг.

(табл. 22.11-1).

Этих данных нам достаточно для построения следующего среднесрочного прогноза (табл. 22.11-2 / 22.11-3).

Сделаем необходимые пояснения к табл. 22.11-2 /22.11-3. Во-первых, мы исходим из того, что в России за эти 10 лет не будут меняться правила учета пожаров (это необходимое условие для построения прогноза). Во-вторых, мы предполагаем, что социальноэкономические условия в России за предстоящие 10 лет не позволят осуществить в стране более заметное снижение значений пожарных рисков. При этом левые значения во всех интервалах нужно считать «оптимистическими» значениями прогноза, а правые - «пессимистическими». Во всяком случае, в ближайшие годы мы сможем оценить правильность наших предположений. Очевидно одно, что «улучшение» показателей обстановки с пожарами в России будет происходить, к

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