Sensibility analysis и possible scenarios of course of the events

Detailed elaboration of the initial data and possibility of their change allow making a detailed and objective prediction of course of the events. Possible scenarios of course of the events (term of recoupment of the Project, term of payback of investments for potential investors) was worked out on the basis of this prediction (see Table 8). In addition, sensibility analysis was conducted (see Table 6).

Table 6. Project sensibility

Parameter	Change in the parameter
Interval of changing of a discount rate
Discount rate	0	2	4
Net Present Value, (NPV), Euro	3 220 986	1 562 614	88 848
Interval of level change
Planned loading probability (office premise leasing)	80	90	98
Net Present Value, NPV, Euro	530 725	2 055 444	3 220 986
Credit repayment term since placed in service, months.	67	61	57
Term of payback of investments of shareholders, months.	75	69	65
Level of prices for office premises rent (1 sq.m./year), Euro	480	530	580
Net Present Value, NPV	3 220 986	4 888 542	6 495 991
Credit repayment term since placed in service, months.	57	53	49
Term of payback of investments of shareholders, months.	65	59	55
Interest rate on credit	1%	1%	1%
Net Present Value, NPV, Euro	4 250 377	3 220 986	2 009 013
Credit repayment term since placed in service, months.	54	57	62
Term of payback of investments of shareholders, months.	61	65	69

The sensibility analysis was conducted by means of determining influence of changes of such indicators, as the discount rate, planned loading probability of the rent of office premises, rental cost of a square meter of office spaces and level of the interest rate of the credit.

The economic model which is being applied is flexible enough and allows estimating various scenarios of course of the events. It was interesting to analyze terms of recoupment of the Project while working it out (final date for return of credit resources and shareholders` loans is presupposed). The terms of recoupment depend on the number of major factors – such as percent of loading of leased office premises and prices for rent (see Table 7).

Table 7. Terms of credit repayment depending on the rental cost of a sq.m of office premises and probabilities of their loading (in month, in brackets - since placed in service).

Loading of office premises,%		Rental price for 1 sq.m., Euro
		480	530	580
	80	94 (67)	88 (61)	84 (57)
	90	88 (61)	83 (56)	79 (52)
	98	84 (57)	80 (53)	76 (49)

The analysis of possible scenarios of course of the events shows that average terms of recoupment of the Project of outlay are within the range of 76 to 94 months from the beginning of realization and from 49 to 67 months from the moment of complex placing in service.