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Gas reserves

Renaissance Capital

20 June 2019

Russian oil & gas

Gazprom regularly reports its reserves according to Russian and Western standards, and also disseminates countrywide ABC1 data. Since 2011 the Ministry of Natural Resources also discloses ABC1 reserves data, and has transitioned to the new AB1C1 reserve classification standards adopted in Russia from 1 January 2016 and discussed in Appendix I.

Russian gas reserves estimates have generally increased in recent years, although performance was patchy in the early 2000s. There was a slight decrease in the panRussian ABC1 gas reserves estimate in 2003 and 2004 (0.5% combined), which is most likely explained by a lull in exploration. However, exploration activity picked up in 2004, yielding additional reserves fairly quickly. Since 2008, ABC1 reserves have been steadily growing, peaking at 50.8tcm in 2016 (see Figure 36). The 2018 AB1C1 reserves were reportedly down 2.5% from a 2016 high to 49.5tcm (reflecting a reserves life of 78 years), which we attribute to the introduction of new reserve classification standards.

Exploration of East Siberia, Yamal and Gydan peninsula and offshore acreage results in significant gas reserve additions and we think this will continue in coming years. Of particular note is the Tambei group of fields, where Gazprom has undertaken significant exploration activity over the past several years, which already lead to AB1C1 reserves additions of 597bcm in 2017 at its Tambei and Malygin fields (C1+C2 resources were increased by mouth-watering 5.1tcm at the Tambei cluster in 2017). In 2018, Gazprom added 667bcm of AB1C1 reserves at the Leningradskoye field (the Russian continental shelf of the Kara Sea) and 101bcm at the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye field (the Russian continental shelf of the Okhotsk Sea). Reserve additions from these two fields alone account for 96% of AB1C1 reserve additions made by Gazprom in 2018 and represent 154% of its output (total reserve replacement ratio for Gazprom was only 68% in 2018 following the reclassification of 409.3bcm of AB1C1 to an associate). Reserves growth in 2018 was even more impressive for NOVATEK, which added 405bcm of AB1C1 gas reserves at its Utrennee field on the Gydan peninsula (a base for Arctic LNG-2) as well as discovered a 320bcm North-Obskoye field in the shallow waters of the Ob Bay. These discoveries suggest that 2018 would have seen a continuing growth in Russian overall gas reserves in 2018, if not for the reclassification effect.

Figure 36: Inferred AB1C1 reserve replacement, bcm

		Additions (+)				Production (-)				Ending reserves (RHS)
1,400														51,000
1,200														50,500
														50,000
1,000														49,500
800														49,000
														48,500
600														48,000
400														47,500
200														47,000
														46,500
0														46,000
2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018

Note: the reserves were reported as ABC1+C2 prior to 2017

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources, Rosnedra, Renaissance Capital estimates

Russia’s AB1C1 gas reserves stand at 49.5tcm, equivalent to a reserves life of 78 years

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As of YE18, Gazprom held 71% of Russia’s AB1C1 gas reserves. The rest was held by independents (26%) or was undistributed (3%, Figure 37).

Figure 37: YE18 AB1C1 gas reserves distribution, % of total

Undistributed fund 3%

Independent producers 26%

Gazprom

71%

Source: Gazprom, Ministry of Natural Resources, Rosnedra, Renaissance Capital

Renaissance Capital

20 June 2019

Russian oil & gas

As of YE18, Gazprom held 71% of Russia’s AB1C1 gas reserves

As shown in Figure 38, AB1C1 gas reserves estimates generally exceed proved reserves assessments, based on BP data. Russia’s gas reserves at YE18 under Russian standards stood at 49.5tcm, vs the 38.9tcm estimated by BP. It is notable that BP has changed its historical reserves assessments several times due to changes in its methodology. Still, both sets or figures are impressive and suggest reserve lives of 78 and 58 years, respectively.

AB1C1 and Western reserves assessments are equally impressive…

Figure 38: Gas reserves according to the Russian and Western classifications, tcm

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
	AB1C1 reserves	47.3	47.5	47.9	47.7	47.6	47.7	47.7	47.7	47.7	48.1	48.2	48.8	49.1	49.5	50.2	50.7	50.8	50.5	49.5
	BP estimates of Russia	33.2	33.4	33.9	33.8	33.6	33.8	33.8	33.9	34.0	34.0	34.1	34.5	34.6	34.9	35.0	35.0	34.8	38.9	38.9
	proved reserves

Source: Gazprom, Rosnedra, Ministry of Natural Resources, BP's Statistical Review of World Energy 2019

In addition to vast proved gas reserves, Russia has very large gas resources. The most recent estimate from Rosnedra of remaining, ultimately recoverable gas reserves and resources stands at 268.8tcm (1,581bn boe), as shown in Figure 39, which corresponds to a total reserve and resources life of c. 400 years.

Figure 39: Russian official reserves and resources estimates for natural gas as of 1 January 2018, tcm

Reserves
AB1C1	49.5
B2+C2	23.8
Total reserves	73.3
Resources
Contingent resources (D0)	31.6
Prospective resources (D1+D2)	163.9
Total resources	195.5
Total reserves and resources	268.8

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources, Rosnedra, Renaissance Capital

…but not as impressive as the abundant resources behind them

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