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Russian crude exports in the FSU context

Figure 98 summarises data from Argus FSU Energy. Although these data differ somewhat from the information we have examined elsewhere in this section, we regard them as useful in demonstrating the role Russian crude exports play in a broader FSU context.

FSU exports climbed by 123% (from 156mnt to 348mnt) from 2000 to 2018. Of this, Russia appears to have contributed c. 50% of the total expansion in supply. Kazakhstan’s contribution has been highly significant since the commissioning of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) route, from Tengiz to Novorossiysk, in 2001. The Atasu-Alashankou pipeline was commissioned in 2005, linking Kazakhstan with China. In 2006, the Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline was opened, connecting Azerbaijan with the Mediterranean. In 2018, Transneft volumes decreased by 1.5% YoY, mainly on the back of lower pipeline exports from Russia (-1.1% YoY) and Kazakh and Azeri (-23.1%) transit volumes as well as a complete halt of the Turkmen transit in 2017.

Renaissance Capital

20 June 2019

Russian oil & gas

Russia contributed more than 50% of the significant FSU supply growth in 2000-2018

Figure 98: Russia’s contribution to FSU crude exports, kt (unless otherwise stated)

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	kb/d	YoY
Transneft system	205,692	196,332	197,188	201,060	209,625	212,028	203,770	193,908	209,145	220,739	216,280	213,123	4,280	-1.5%
Of which
Russian	182,440	173,267	171,825	179,687	186,814	189,191	182,035	174,621	190,404	200,805	196,654	194,569	3,907	-1.1%
Kazakh	20,335	21,080	21,190	19,133	18,845	19,178	18,209	16,385	15,125	16,633	16,429	15,701	315	-4.4%
Belarus	690	1,174	1,693	0	1,785	1,645	1,619	1,617	1,615	1,617	1,621	1,640	33	1.2%
Azeri	2,230	1,386	2,480	2,240	1,988	2,000	1,751	932	1,270	1,218	1,577	1,213	24	-23.1%
Turkmen	0	0	0	0	193	14	156	353	731	467	0	0	0
Russian rail	14,580	14,250	14,090	16,432	8,041	7,875	9,166	2,159	722	2,523	1,890	1,527	31	-19.3%
Of which
Russian	13,055	11,367	10,809	10,760	779	1,762	450	390	420	2,344	1,890	1,527	31	-19.3%
Kazakh	1,525	2,883	3,281	5,672	7,261	6,113	8,717	1,770	302	179	0	0	0
Kazakhstan rail	840	840	840	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Of which
China	840	840	840	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Iran	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other Russian*	15,140	12,382	22,099	22,035	18,736	16,659	18,778	19,803	23,479	30,296	33,918	35,389	711	4.3%
CPC	32,613	31,479	34,574	34,923	31,875	30,592	32,714	39,811	43,059	44,300	55,177	61,043	1,226	10.6%
BTC	28,436	32,073	39,470	38,011	34,094	32,148	31,438	29,538	30,769	33,090	34,438	33,849	680	-1.7%
Kenkiyak-Alashankou	4,767	6,014	7,736	10,056	10,975	10,396	11,802	11,600	11,460	9,775	12,728	11,372	228	-10.7%
Caspian	11,976	9,042	13,719	11,573	8,164	8,338	7,187	6,228	5,143	5,945	4,369	3,227	65	-26.1%
Of which
Supsa (AIOC)	20	641	4,192	3,963	3,284	3,516	3,718	4,272	4,182	3,866	3,486	2,960	59	-15.1%
Iran (Kazakh/Turkmen/Azeri Crude)	5,350	3,525	4,147	1,335	164	0	0	0	0	0	309	160	3	-48.2%
Batumi	6,880	4,876	5,380	5,081	3,597	3,943	2,531	1,557	961	2,018	527	107	2	-79.8%
Kulevi	0	0	0	1,195	1,120	879	938	399	0	0	0	0	0
Ukraine (unofficial re-export)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	0	0	0	0	0	-
Transit volumes/cross-supply	-223	-466	0	142	0	0	10	-7,052	-6,877	-9,066	-12,063	-11,508	-230
FSU total	313,820	301,946	329,716	334,232	321,509	318,036	314,866	296,008	316,900	337,601	346,738	348,021	6,989	0.4%
Of which Russian	210,635	197,016	204,733	212,481	206,329	207,613	201,263	194,814	214,303	233,445	232,223	231,161	4,642	-0.5%

Note: Other Russian shipments include river-shipped delivered crude for export, offshore loadings from Sakhalin, Varandey, Novy Port and other proprietary outlets. We believe the FSU exports from Russia via Transneft that are detailed above actually include volumes shipped to the Mazeikai refinery in Lithuania, an FSU state, pre-2008.

Source: Argus, Renaissance Capital

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