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Crude export proceeds
Renaissance Capital
20 June 2019
Russian oil & gas
Figure 99 summarises crude oil and condensate export statistics provided by the Federal Customs Service. In 2018 non-CIS exports accounted for 93% of total Russian crude and condensate exports. China has overtaken the Netherlands as the main destination for Russian crude in 2017 and remained the #1 recipient of Russian crude in 2018, with these two countries accounting for 25.8% and 16.3% of Russian exports, respectively. In absolute terms, Russia exported 67.0mnt of crude to China in 2018 vs 42.2mnt exported to the Netherlands.
Non-CIS crude export volumes increased by 21% from 2014 to 2018, while core CIS crude exports (Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan) declined by 24.2% over the same period. Belarus accounted for 99.9% of CIS export volumes in 2018 (18.3mnt in 2018, up 1.1% YoY).
Average realised exports price was $69.2/bl for non-CIS countries and $50.9/bl for the selected CIS countries in 2018, representing respective 1.8% and 27.8% discounts to the average Urals price. Total crude exports proceeds were $128.7bn in 2018 – a 26% reduction since 2013 on the back of the oil price decline. Compared with 2017, total proceeds increased by 37.8%, on the recovery of the average Urals price by 31.4% YoY, 2.7% higher volumes and narrowing of the discount to the non-CIS price.
Figure 99: Russian crude and condensate exports, volumes and realised prices
|
|
Export volume, mnt |
|
% of |
|
Export value, $mn |
|
Average export price, $/bl |
|
|||||||
|
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
total |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
Non-CIS, total |
199.3 |
221.7 |
236.4 |
234.7 |
241.2 |
93% |
136,574 |
84,010 |
69,696 |
88,078 |
121,919 |
93.9 |
51.9 |
40.4 |
51.4 |
69.2 |
China |
30.0 |
38.6 |
47.6 |
52.6 |
67.0 |
26% |
21,974 |
15,131 |
14,825 |
20,555 |
35,114 |
100 |
54 |
43 |
54 |
72 |
Netherlands |
42.7 |
45.2 |
49.9 |
47.0 |
42.2 |
16% |
30,824 |
16,348 |
13,953 |
17,075 |
20,793 |
99 |
50 |
38 |
50 |
67 |
Germany |
17.3 |
21.1 |
23.6 |
24.2 |
23.3 |
9% |
11,915 |
7,520 |
6,832 |
8,944 |
11,412 |
94 |
49 |
40 |
51 |
67 |
Poland |
18.1 |
19.2 |
19.0 |
17.4 |
16.9 |
7% |
12,605 |
6,848 |
5,436 |
6,434 |
8,233 |
96 |
49 |
39 |
51 |
67 |
South Korea |
10.8 |
12.4 |
12.4 |
12.5 |
15.2 |
6% |
8,728 |
5,347 |
3,990 |
4,963 |
8,233 |
111 |
59 |
44 |
54 |
74 |
Italy |
20.9 |
19.6 |
15.6 |
15.5 |
13.1 |
5% |
15,627 |
7,682 |
4,455 |
5,835 |
6,574 |
102 |
54 |
39 |
51 |
69 |
Finland |
7.7 |
9.3 |
9.7 |
9.5 |
10.2 |
4% |
5,559 |
3,306 |
2,746 |
3,444 |
4,923 |
99 |
49 |
39 |
50 |
66 |
Japan |
11.9 |
14.6 |
9.9 |
8.1 |
7.0 |
3% |
414 |
6,276 |
3,171 |
3,219 |
3,800 |
5 |
59 |
44 |
55 |
74 |
Slovakia |
5.3 |
6.0 |
5.7 |
5.5 |
5.2 |
2% |
3,567 |
2,073 |
1,620 |
2,004 |
2,486 |
92 |
48 |
39 |
50 |
65 |
Lithuania |
2.6 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
3.3 |
4.2 |
2% |
1,824 |
821 |
853 |
1,214 |
2,018 |
95 |
51 |
40 |
51 |
66 |
Hungary |
5.4 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
2% |
3,712 |
1,682 |
1,324 |
1,568 |
1,951 |
94 |
47 |
38 |
49 |
65 |
Czech Republic |
3.7 |
3.9 |
3.4 |
4.1 |
4.0 |
2% |
2,581 |
1,451 |
1,027 |
1,496 |
1,975 |
96 |
50 |
41 |
51 |
67 |
Bulgaria |
0.1 |
2.5 |
4.8 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
1% |
55 |
874 |
1,345 |
1,295 |
1,523 |
105 |
49 |
38 |
50 |
68 |
Sweden |
3.8 |
2.6 |
3.7 |
2.0 |
2.9 |
1% |
2,752 |
980 |
1,042 |
744 |
1,399 |
98 |
51 |
39 |
51 |
66 |
Romania |
0.7 |
2.2 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
2.9 |
1% |
444 |
819 |
849 |
913 |
1,397 |
92 |
51 |
39 |
50 |
66 |
Turkey |
0.8 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
2.1 |
1% |
635 |
668 |
543 |
421 |
1,053 |
108 |
52 |
39 |
50 |
68 |
Croatia |
1.7 |
2.1 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
1% |
1,217 |
817 |
424 |
594 |
1,043 |
101 |
53 |
40 |
51 |
70 |
US |
0.1 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
1.8 |
1% |
82 |
329 |
158 |
241 |
913 |
112 |
56 |
43 |
51 |
70 |
France |
0.8 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
1.9 |
1.4 |
1% |
585 |
340 |
315 |
729 |
741 |
106 |
53 |
46 |
51 |
73 |
Spain |
2.5 |
2.6 |
3.2 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
0% |
1,904 |
912 |
927 |
721 |
573 |
103 |
49 |
39 |
51 |
68 |
Greece |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
0% |
1,574 |
721 |
584 |
419 |
529 |
102 |
53 |
42 |
51 |
67 |
UK |
0.3 |
0.1 |
1.2 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
0% |
236 |
34 |
403 |
664 |
493 |
110 |
48 |
45 |
50 |
69 |
Other |
10.1 |
7.4 |
9.3 |
12.2 |
9.4 |
4% |
7,759 |
3,030 |
2,872 |
4,585 |
4,744 |
105 |
56 |
42 |
51 |
69 |
CIS total |
24.1 |
22.8 |
18.4 |
18.1 |
18.3 |
7% |
8,302 |
5,578 |
4,017 |
5,300 |
6,796 |
35 |
34 |
29.8 |
40.0 |
50.9 |
Belarus |
23.3 |
22.6 |
18.4 |
18.1 |
18.3 |
7% |
7,862 |
5,539 |
4,014 |
5,278 |
6,788 |
46 |
34 |
30 |
40 |
51 |
Ukraine |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0% |
249 |
0 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
107 |
66 |
50 |
62 |
87 |
Kazakhstan |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0% |
191 |
39 |
1 |
17 |
8 |
52 |
33 |
34 |
44 |
49 |
Total |
223.5 |
244.5 |
254.9 |
252.8 |
259.5 |
100% |
144,876 |
89,588 |
73,712 |
93,377 |
128,715 |
88.8 |
50.2 |
39.6 |
50.6 |
67.9 |
Average Urals price |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
97.6 |
51.4 |
42.1 |
53.7 |
70.5 |
Source: Federal Customs Service
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