Арзуманян Р., Сложное мышление и сеть парадигма нелинейности и среда безопасности 21 века

		ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ
				ǸȐș. 4
		ǹȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȟȕȣȑ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚ
	Pm1	ǼȐȏȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȐȏȕțȘȍȕȐȍ		ǷșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȐȏȕțȘȍȕȐȍ
			P\1
		ǷȖȘȖȋ ȕȈȌȓȖȔȈ	P\1min	ǷȖȘȖȋ ȕȈȌȓȖȔȈ
Pm1min
		tm1		t\1
			P\2
	Pm2
Pm2min		ǷȖȘȖȋ ȕȈȌȓȖȔȈ	P\2min	ǷȖȘȖȋ ȕȈȌȓȖȔȈ
		tm2		t\2
		Vm=F(min{tm1, tm2})		V\=F(in{t\1, t\2})
		V=F(min{tm1, tm2, t\1, t\2})
	– ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊțȦȡȐȍ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ
Pm – ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓ șȚȖȘȖȕ
P\ –ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓ șȚȖȘȖȕ
t	– ȊȘȍȔȧ ȕȈșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȐȓȐ
	ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȕȈȌȓȖȔȈ

211

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ
				ǸȐș. 5
		ǨșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȟȕȣȑ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚ
	Pm1	ǼȐȏȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȐȏȕțȘȍȕȐȍ		ǷșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȐȏȕțȘȍȕȐȍ
			P\1
			P\1min	ǷȖȘȖȋ ȕȈȌȓȖȔȈ
Pm1min		ǷȖȘȖȋ ȕȈȌȓȖȔȈ
		tm1		t\1
			P\2
	Pm2
Pm2min		ǷȖȘȖȋ ȕȈȌȓȖȔȈ	P\2min	ǷȖȘȖȋ ȕȈȌȓȖȔȈ
		tm2		t\2
		Vm, tm1, tm2 – ɧɟ ɦɨɝɭɬ ɛɵɬɶ		t\2 – ɧɟ ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɹɟɬɫɹ
				V\=F(t\1)
		ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɵ
			V\=F(t\1)
	– ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊțȦȡȐȍ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ
Pm – ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓ șȚȖȘȖȕ
P\ – ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓ șȚȖȘȖȕ
t	– ȊȘȍȔȧ ȕȈșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȐȓȐ
		ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȕȈȌȓȖȔȈ

ǺȈȒ ȒȈȒ țșȗȍȠȕȈȧ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȈșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȑ, ȕȈȞȐȧ, ȐȔȍȦȡȈȧ ȕȍȖșȗȖȘȐȔȖȍ ȗȘȍȊȖșȝȖȌșȚȊȖ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȔ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȍ Ȑ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȧȝ ȊȍșȚȐ ȊȖȑȕț, șȚȘȍȔȐȚșȧ șȊȍșȚȐ ȍȍ Ȓ ȊȖȑȕȍ ȕȈ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȐȏȕțȘȍȕȐȍ. ǷȘȖȚȐȊȖȗȖȓȖȎȕȈȧ șȚȖȘȖȕȈ, ȗȖȕȐȔȈȧ șȊȖȦ ȕȍșȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ țșȗȍȠȕȖ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖșȚȖȧȚȤ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒț Ȋ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȔȈșȠȚȈȉȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȍ, șȚȈȘȈȍȚșȧ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ șȊȖȍ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȖ Ȋ ȊȖȓȍ, șȚȘȍȔȐȚșȧ ȌȖȉȐȚȤșȧ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ ȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȖȔ ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȐȏȕțȘȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȠȐȘȖȒȖ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȦȚșȧ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ǹǴǰ, ȔȍȚȖȌȣ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȚȈȒȚȐȒȈ Ȑ ȗȘ. ǬȘțȋȐȔȐ șȓȖȊȈȔȐ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȦȚșȧ Ȋșȍ ȌȖșȚțȗȕȣȍ ȔȍȚȖȌȣ, ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȕȈ ȘȈȏȘțȠȍȕȐȍ ȗțȉȓȐȟȕȖȋȖ ȒȖȕșȍȕșțșȈ Ȋ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȊȖȑȕȣ.

212

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ǸȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȕȈȧ ȊȣȠȍ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈ ȈșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȟȕȖșȚȐ ȐȘȘȍȋțȓȧȘȕȣȝ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ Ȑ ȊȖȑȕ ȕȍ ȕȖȊȈ Ȑ ȐȔȍȍȚ, ȒȈȒ ȔȐȕȐȔțȔ, 60-ȓȍȚȕȐȑ ȖȗȣȚ1. Ǫ 21 ȊȍȒȍ ȐȘȘȍȋțȓȧȘȕȣȍ ȋȘțȗȗȐȘȖȊȒȐ ȐȔȍȦȚ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ țȧȏȊȐȔȖșȚȐ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȔȐȘȈ, ȕȍȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ ȉȖȍȊȣȍ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ, Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ Ȑ șȔȍȘȚȕȐȒȖȊ, ȠȐȘȖȒȖ ȗȘȐȊȓȍȒȈȧ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȈ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȥȗȖȝȐ – ȔȖȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȤ, ȗȖȘȐșȚȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȗȘȖȏȘȈȟȕȖșȚȤ ȋȘȈȕȐȞ, ȥȓȍȒȚȘȖȕȕȣȍ ǹǴǰ, ǹȍȚȤ Ȑ ȗȘ.2 ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȐȘȘȍȋțȓȧȘȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ ȕȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȕȈȕȍșȚȐ șȍȘȤȍȏȕȣȑ țȡȍȘȉ ȔȈȚȍȘȐȈȓȤȕȖȔț ȉȈȏȐșț ȈȚȈȒțȍȔȖȋȖ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ, Ȑ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤ Ȗ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȗȖȉȍȌȍ Ȋ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȖȔ șȔȣșȓȍ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ șȓȖȊȈ ȕȍ ȗȘȐȝȖȌȐȚșȧ. ǸȍȟȤ ȐȌȍȚ Ȗ ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ ȐȏȕțȘȍȕȐȐ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ Ȑ ȗșȐ-ȊȖȑȕȍ, ȐȔȍȦȡȍȑ șȊȖȐ ȏȈȒȖȕȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ Ȋ ȘȈșȟȍȚ ȈȚȈȒțȦȡȈȧ șȚȖȘȖȕȈ.

Ǫ ȖȗȐșȈȕȕȖȑ ȊȣȠȍ șȘȍȌȍ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ șȓȖȎȕȣȔ Ȑ ȗȘȖșȚȖ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȗȘȖȊȖȌȐȚȤ ȋȘȈȕȐȞț ȔȍȎȌț ȋȘȈȎȌȈȕșȒȐȔ ȕȈșȍȓȍȕȐȍȔ Ȑ ȒȖȔȉȈȚȈȕȚȈȔȐ. Ǫ ȥȚȐȝ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ ȓȖȋȐȒȈ ȊȣȎȐȊȈȕȐȧ Ȑ ȏȈȒȖȕȣ ȈșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȟȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȊȣȕțȎȌȈȦȚ șȚȖȘȖȕț, ȐȔȍȦȡțȦ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȍ ȗȘȍȊȖșȝȖȌșȚȊȖ, ȖȚȝȖȌȐȚȤ ȖȚ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ 17 ȊȍȒȈ, ȊȍȌțȡȍȑ Ȓ ȗȖȚȍȘȧȔ, ȗȖȌȈȊȓȍȕȐȦ ȉȖȍȊȖȋȖ ȌțȝȈ Ȑ, Ȋ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȔ șȟȍȚȍ, ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȦ. ǰ ȈȕȈȓȖȋȐȟȕȖ, ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȗȖȓȖȎȕȈȧ șȚȖȘȖȕȈ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȕȈȘțȠȈȚȤ ȐȓȐ ȐȋȕȖȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȗȖȓțȟȐȚȤ ȠȈȕș ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȈșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȟȕțȦ ȚȈȒȚȐȒț. ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, Ȋ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ, ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ Ȑ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȐȕȚȍȘȍșȈȝ ȖȉȍȐȝ șȚȖȘȖȕ, ȊȍȌțȡȐȝ ȈșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȟȕțȦ ȊȖȑȕț, ȊȕȖșȐȚȤ Ȋ ȕȍȍ ȒȈȒ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȍ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, ȘȍȏȒȖ ȊȖȏȘȈșȚȈȦȚ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȧ Ȓ ȗȘȖȜȍșșȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ Ȑ Ȗȉȡȍȑ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒȍ ȉȖȑȞȖȊ Ȑ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȐȘȖȊ, ȌȍȓȈȧ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȊȈȎȕȣȔ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȐȑ ȜȈȒȚȖȘ. DzȘȖȔȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȗȘȐ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȐ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȏȕȈȚȤ Ȑ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ Ȋ ȘȈșȟȍȚ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȑ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚ, ȕȖ ȚȈȒȎȍ Ȑ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȑ Ȑ ȒȖȋȕȐȚȐȊȕȣȑ ȌȖȔȍȕȣ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ. DzȈȒ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȌțȔȈȚȤ, ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȗȖȉȍȎȌȈȚȤ Țȍȉȧ ȚȊȖȑ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒ, ȒȈȒȖȊȣ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ, ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ Ȑ ȘȍȓȐȋȐȖȏȕȣȔȐ ȋȘțȗȗȈȔȐ Ȑ ȒȓȈȕȈȔȐ? DzȈȒȐȍ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȚ ȔȍȎȌț ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȔȐ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȈȔȐ șȚȘȈȕȣ, Ȋ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍ Ȑ ȕȈȘȖȌȍ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ? ǰ Ț.Ȍ., Ȑ Ț.ȗ.3 ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, Ȋ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȈ Ȑ ȜȖȘȔȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ ȗȖȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȈșȚȖȧȚȍȓȤȕȈȧ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȤ Ȋ ȘȍȊȐȏȐȐ șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ Ȑ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȍ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ4.

1 ǹȔȖȚȘȐ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, Long, Austin. On “other war”: lessons from five decades of RAND counterinsurgency research. RAND Report MG-482, Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2006. 12 January 2011. http://www.rand.org/pubs/ monographs/2006/RAND_MG482.pdf.

2 ǹȔȖȚȘȐ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, Libicki, Martin C, David C. Gompert, David R. Frelinger, Raymond Smith. Byting Back. Regaining Information Superiority Against 21st-Century Insurgents. RAND Report MG595, Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2007. 12 January 2011. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2007/RAND_MG595.1.pdf.

3 ǷȘȐȔȍȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ Ȓ ȐȘȈȒșȒȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȦȚșȧ Ȋ Terrill, W. Andrew. Nationalism, Sectarianism, and the Future of U.S. Presence in postSaddam Iraq. Strategic Studies Institute. Carlisle, PA: Army War College, 2003, p. 13. 12 January 2011. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB180.pdf.

4 ǴȖȌȍȓȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ț Smith, Edward. Complexity, Networking, and Effects-Based Approaches to Operations, pp. 9-33.

213

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3. ǺȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȈȧ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ

dzȐȕȍȑȕȖȍ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȍ ǽȖȓȖȌȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖ Ȋ ǹȀǨ, ȐȔȍȓȖ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȦ ȌȍȓȐȚȤ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȣ ȕȈ ȌȊȍ ȒȈȚȍȋȖȘȐȐ: «ȉȖȓȤȠȈȧ ȊȖȑȕȈ» (major war) Ȑ «ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ Ȑȕȣȍ, ȟȍȔ ȊȖȑȕȈ» (operations other than war (OOTW)1). ǬȐȝȖȚȖȔȐȧ ȊȣșȚȘȈȐȊȈȓȈșȤ ȕȈ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȐ, ȟȚȖ ȔȈȓȣȍ țȋȘȖȏȣ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȍȖȌȖȓȍȕȣ ȔȈȓȣȔȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔȐ țșȐȓȐȧȔȐ Ȑ ș ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȚȖȋȖ Ȏȍ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȈȘȐȧ, ȟȚȖ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚșȧ ȗȘȐ ȘȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȐ ȒȘțȗȕȣȝ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȖȊ (ǸȐș. 6).

ǸȐș. 6

ǺȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȈȧ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ

ǪȘȈȎȌȍȉȕȖșȚȤ

ȀȐȘȖȒȖȔȈșȠȚȈȉȕȣȍ ȉ/Ȍ ǶșȕȖȊȕȖȍ șȘȈȎȍȕȐȍ

ǴȐȘ	DzȘȐȏȐș	ǪȖȑȕȈ	ǴȐȘ	t

OOTW

OOTW

ǬȈȕȕȖȍ ȘȈȏȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ, ȊȖ ȔȕȖȋȖȔ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȦȡȍȍ ȖȜȖȘȔȓȧȚȤ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȍ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȍ ȔȕȍȕȐȍ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍȔ ȍȊȘȖȗȍȑșȒȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȖȚȕȍșȚȐ Ȓ șȍȘȍȌȐȕȍ 17 ȊȍȒȈ. Ǫ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ. ǷȘȐȟȍȔ ȗȖȊșȚȈȕȟȍșȒȈȧ ȊȖȑȕȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘțȦ ȊȍȓȐ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȐșȗȈȕșȒȐȍ ȗȈȘȚȐȏȈȕȣ ȗȘȖȚȐȊ ȜȘȈȕȞțȏșȒȖȑ ȖȒȒțȗȈȞȐȐ ȔȍȎȌț 1803 Ȑ 1810ȋȋ., ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȓȈșȤ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȒȈȒ ȕȍȌȖȗțșȚȐȔȖȍ ȖȚȒȓȖȕȍȕȐȍ. ǵȈȟȈȓȖ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧ ȌȖȊȖȓȤȕȖ ȟȍȚȒȖ

– ȥȚȖ ȍȍ ȜȖȘȔȈȓȤȕȖȍ ȖȉȢȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȗȖșȓȍȌțȦȡȍȍ ȕȈȟȈȓȖ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȈȘȔȐȧȔȐ ȊȖȦȦȡȐȝ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊ. DzȈȒ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȖȌȕȈ Ȑȏ șȚȖȘȖȕ ȗȘȖȐȋȘȣȊȈȓȈ ȘȍȠȈȦȡȍȍ șȘȈȎȍȕȐȍ ȐȓȐ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȓȈșȤ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȚȤ ȉȖȍȊȣȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ,

1 U.S. Joint Chiefs Staff. Joint Publication 3-07. Joint Doctrine for Military Operations Other Than War. Washington, DC: United States Department of Defense, 16 June 1995. 12 January 2011. <http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/new_pubs/jp3_07.pdf>;

ǩȐȉȓȐȖȋȘȈȜȐȧ ȗȖ OOTW. 12 January 2011. <http://www.au.af.mil/au/aul/bibs/mootw/mootw3.htm>.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȗȘȍȒȘȈȡȈȓȐșȤ, ȕȈșȚțȗȈȓȖ ȗȍȘȍȔȐȘȐȍ. ǯȈȚȍȔ ȗȖȌȗȐșȣȊȈȓșȧ ȔȐȘȕȣȑ ȌȖȋȖȊȖȘ, ȕȈșȍȓȍȕȐȍ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊ ȊȖȏȊȘȈȡȈȓȖșȤ Ȓ ȖȉȣȟȕȖȑ ȎȐȏȕȐ, Ȑ ȊȘȈȎȌȍȉȕȖșȚȤ, ȕȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȣȑ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȗȖșȚȍȗȍȕȕȖ șȝȖȌȐȓȈ ȕȈ ȕȍȚ. ǬȘțȋȐȔȐ șȓȖȊȈȔȐ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ Ȋ ȊȖȑȕȍ, ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȉȣȓȖ ȕȈȕȍșȚȐ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȍ ȈȘȔȐȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ.

Ǫ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȉȣȓȈ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȈ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȈȧ ȗȘȈȊȖȊȈȧ ȉȈȏȈ, ȐȔȍȓȐșȤ ȟȍȚȒȐȍ Ȑ ȗȖȕȧȚȕȣȍ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȍ ȌȐȈȗȈȏȖȕȣ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌȈ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈȔȐ Ȑȏ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ ȔȐȘȈ Ȓ ȊȖȑȕȍ, ȗȖȌȒȘȍȗȓȍȕȕȣȍ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȐȔȐ ȗȘȖȞȍȌțȘȈȔȐ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȈȊȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȋ ȚȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ șȖȉȓȦȌȈȓȐșȤ ȊșȍȔȐ țȟȈșȚȕȐȒȈȔȐ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ. ǴȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȖȍ ȗȘȈȊȖ ȕȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȓȖ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ ȔȐȘȈ, țȋȘȖȎȈȍȔȣȑ ȗȍȘȐȖȌ, ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȗȖȌȗȐșȈȕȐȍ ȔȐȘȈ Ȑ ȗȘ. ǺȈȒȎȍ șțȡȍșȚȊȖȊȈȓ șȊȖȌ ȕȖȘȔ, ȘȍȋȓȈȔȍȕȚȐȘțȦȡȐȑ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ Ȋ ȔȐȘȕȖȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ, ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌ șȚȘȈȕȣ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ țșȓȖȊȐȧ, șȖȏȌȈȊȈȊȠȐȍ ȗȖȟȊț Ȍȓȧ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȧ ȉțȌțȡȍȑ ȐȓȐ țȎȍ ȕȈȟȈȊȠȍȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȓȍȋȈȓȤȕȖȑ Ȑ șȗȘȈȊȍȌȓȐȊȖȑ ȒȈȒ ș ȔȖȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ, ȚȈȒ ȚȍȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ (just war). ǬȈȕȕȣȍ ȒȘȐȚȍȘȐȐ Ȑ ȖȉȖșȕȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȔȖȎȕȖ țȎȍ ȊșȚȘȍȚȐȚȤ Ȋ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȝ ǩȓȈȎȍȕȕȖȋȖ ǨȊȋțșȚȐȕȈ1, Ȑ Țȍ Ȏȍ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȣ ȓȍȎȈȚ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȘȈȉȖȚȣ ǹǩ ǶǶǵ. ǰ șȍȋȖȌȕȧ ȕȖȘȔȈȚȐȊȕȈȧ ȉȈȏȈ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȈȊȈ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȍȚ șȖȗȘȖȊȖȎȌȈȚȤ ȊȖȑȕț Ȑ ȒȘȐȏȐș, ȝȖȚȧ ȖȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȈȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ Ȋ ȟȐșȚȖȔ ȊȐȌȍ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȓȈșȤ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȟȍȔ ȘȍȌȒȖ. Ǫ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȕȈȑȚȐ ȔȕȖȋȖȟȐșȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȐșȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȧ, șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȍ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ș ȒȖȓȖȕȐȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȊȖȑȕȈȔȐ ȐȓȐ ȊȖȑȕȈȔȐ ș ȕȍȍȊȘȖȗȍȑșȒȐȔȐ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈȔȐ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ȏȈȌȈȊȈȓȈ ȜȘȍȑȔ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȑ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȐȚȤ ȋȘȈȕȐȞȣ ȌȖȏȊȖȓȍȕȕȖȋȖ Ȑ ȕȍȌȖȏȊȖȓȍȕȕȖȋȖ Ȑ ȌȈȊȈȚȤ ȖȞȍȕȒț șȚȖȘȖȕȈȔȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈȔ, ȊȖȑȕȍȐȕȈșȚțȗȐȊȠȍȔț ȔȐȘț2.

4. ǵȖȊȣȍ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ

«ǺȘȍȝȉȓȖȟȕȈȧ ȊȖȑȕȈ». ǩȣȊȠȐȑ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȑ DzȖȘȗțșȖȔ ȔȖȘșȒȖȑ ȗȍȝȖȚȣ ȋȍȕȍȘȈȓ ǿȈȘȓȤȏ DzȘțȓȈȒ (Charles Krulak) ȗȘȍȌȓȖȎȐȓ ȚȍȘȔȐȕ «ȚȘȍȝȉȓȖȟȕȈȧ ȊȖȑȕȈ» (three block war) Ȍȓȧ ȐȓȓȦșȚȘȈȞȐȐ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ3. Ǫ ȖȌȕȖȔ ȉȓȖȒȍ ȚȈȒȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȔȖȘșȒȐȍ ȗȍȝȖȚȐȕȞȣ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȧȦȚ ȋțȔȈȕȐȚȈȘȕȣȍ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȗȖȔȖȡȤ ȔȍșȚȕȖȔț ȕȈșȍȓȍȕȐȦ. Ǫ ȌȘțȋȖȔ ȘȈȏȌȍȓȧȦȚ ȓȖȒȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊțȦȡȐȍ ȋȘțȗȗȐȘȖȊȒȐ, șȚȘȍȔȧșȤ ȗȖȌȌȍȘȎȈȚȤ

1 Russell, Frederick H. The Just War in the Middle Ages. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997.

2 DzȘȈȚȒȖȍ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȍ ȗȘȈȊȖȊȖȋȖ ȉȈȏȐșȈ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ șȐȓȣ, ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȖȋȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȏȈȒȖȕȖȌȈȚȍȓȤșȚȊȈ Ȑ ȗȘȖȟ.

ȔȖȎȕȖ ȕȈȑȚȐ Ȋ Rawcliffe, John (ed.) Operational Law Handbook (2007). International and Operational Law Department, The Judge Advocate General's Legal Center & School, US Army, Charlottesville, Virginia, 2007. 12 January 2011. http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/army/law2007.pdf.

3 Krulak, Gen. Charles C., USMC. “The Three Block War: Fighting in Urban Areas,” Vital Speeches of the Day. Vol. 64, Issue 5, New York, December 15, 1997, pp. 139-142.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȝȘțȗȒȐȑ ȓȖȒȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȔȐȘ. ǰ Ȋ ȚȘȍȚȤȍȔ ȉȓȖȒȍ ȖȕȐ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȊȍșȚȐ ȎȍșȚȒȐȍ ȉȖȍȊȣȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ. ǬȖȗȖȓȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȈȧ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ Ȋȣ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȌȍȑșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ ȖȌȕȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖ ȊȖ Ȋșȍȝ ȚȘȍȝ ȉȓȖȒȈȝ Ȑ ȏȈȟȈșȚțȦ ȕȈ ȖȌȕȖȑ Ȑ ȚȖȑ Ȏȍ ȔȍșȚȕȖșȚȐ ȐȓȐ ȌȈȎȍ Ȋ ȕȈșȍȓȍȕȕȖȔ ȗțȕȒȚȍ. Ǫ ȥȚȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ Ȋșȍ ȚȘȐ ȉȓȖȒȈ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȗȍȘȍȗȓȍȚȍȕȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȊȓȐȧȦȡȐȔȐ ȌȘțȋ ȕȈ ȌȘțȋȈ, Ȉ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌ ȖȚ ȖȌȕȖȑ ȜȖȘȔȣ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ Ȓ ȌȘțȋȖȑ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚȤ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖ. ȅȚȖ șȖȏȌȈȍȚ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ Ȑ ȌȈȎȍ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȐȘȣ Ȋșȍȝ ȏȊȍȕȤȍȊ ȊȣȕțȎȌȍȕȣ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ ȉȣșȚȘȣȍ Ȑ ȏȈȟȈșȚțȦ ȕȍșȚȈȕȌȈȘȚȕȣȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ. ǶȗȐșȈȕȕȈȧ ȊȣȠȍ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȐȊȍȓȈ Ȓ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȦ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧ «șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȒȈȗȘȈȓ», ȒȖȋȌȈ ȔȖȓȖȌȖȑ ȉȖȍȞ ȕȈ ȗȍȘȍȌȖȊȖȑ ȊȣȕțȎȌȍȕ ȗȖȘȖȑ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ, ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȡȐȍ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȕȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȍ1.

«ǫȐȉȘȐȌȕȈȧ ȊȖȑȕȈ». ǷȖȧȊȐȊȠȈȧșȧ Ȋ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȐȍ ȋȖȌȣ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ ȋȐȉȘȐȌȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȐșȝȖȌȐȚ Ȑȏ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȉțȌțȡȐȍ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȣ ȉțȌțȚ ȕȍ «ȟȍȘȕȖ-ȉȍȓȣȔȐ», ȖȚȕȖșȧȡȐȔȐșȧ Ȓ ȒȈȒȖȑ-ȚȖ ȖȌȕȖȑ ȜȖȘȔȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȘȍȋțȓȧȘȕȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȐȘȘȍȋțȓȧȘȕȖȑ, ȕȖ șȔȍȠȈȕȕȣȔȐ. ǫȐȉȘȐȌȕȣȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȔȖȋțȚ ȊȍșȚȐșȤ ȒȈȒ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈȔȐ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȕȍȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȈȒȚȖȘȈȔȐ. ǪȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ ȟȈșȚȍȑ Ȑ ȗȖȌȘȈȏȌȍȓȍȕȐȑ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ șȐȕȍȘȋȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ Ȋ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȖȔ Ȑ ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ ȌȖȔȍȕȈȝ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ, Ȉ ȔȖȎȍȚ Ȑ ȕȍȚ. ǷȘȐȟȍȔ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȔȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȔȖȋțȚ ȗȘȖȧȊȓȧȚȤșȧ ȕȈ Ȋșȍȝ țȘȖȊȕȧȝ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǫȐȉȘȐȌȕȣȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȋȓțȉȖȒȖ ȈșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȟȕȣ. Ǫ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȋȐȉȘȐȌȕȣȝ ȊȖȑȕ ȊȔȍșȚȖ ȘȈȏȌȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȊȣȏȖȊȖȊ ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȖ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ ȜȖȘȔ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ (ȖȉȡȍȊȖȑșȒȖȊȣȍ, ȐȘȘȍȋțȓȧȘȕȣȍ ȐȓȐ ȚȍȘȘȖȘȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ) Ȋ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ țȟȈșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȖȌȕȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖ ȉțȌȍȚ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȚȤ Ȋșȍ ȜȖȘȔȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ ȒȘȐȔȐȕȈȓȤȕȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ2.

ǸȧȌ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȍȑ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ DzȖȓȐȕ ǫȘȍȑ, șȟȐȚȈȦȚ, ȟȚȖ ȗȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȊȊȍșȚȐ ȕȖȊȣȑ ȚȍȘȔȐȕ Ȑ ȗȘȐȓȈȋȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȍ «ȋȐȉȘȐȌȕȣȑ» – ȕȍ șȖȊșȍȔ țȌȈȟȕȣȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ Ȓ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȍ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ Ȋșȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȋ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ ȉȣȓȐ Ȋ ȚȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ «ȋȐȉȘȐȌȕȣȔȐ». ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ Ȋșȍ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȣ Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ ȉțȌțȚ ȐȔȍȚȤ ȜȖȘȔȣ ȒȈȒ ȘȍȋțȓȧȘȕȣȝ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȐȘȘȍȋțȓȧȘȕȣȝ ȊȖȑȕ, ȉțȌțȟȐ șȔȍȠȈȕȕȣȔȐ ȐȓȐ «ȋȐȉȘȐȌȕȣȔȐ» ȗȖ șȊȖȍȔț ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘț. ǺȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȐȓȈȋȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȔȖȎȕȖ șȟȐȚȈȚȤ ȖȗȘȈȊȌȈȕȕȣȔ ș ȥȒȏȐșȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ «ȋȐȉȘȐȌȕȖșȚȤ» ȗȖȔȖȋȈȍȚ ȗȖȌȟȍȘȒȕțȚȤ ȊȈȎȕȣȑ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȧȊȓȧȦȡȐȑșȧ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍȔ șȈȔȖȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ3.

1 Krulak, Gen. Charles C., USMC. “The Strategic Corporal: Leadership in the Three Block War.” The Commandant’s Page, Marines Magazine, January 1999. 12 January 2011. http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/usmc/strategic_corporal.htm.

2 Hoffman, Frank G. “Hybrid Threats: Reconceptualizing the Evolving Character of Modern Conflict,” Strategic Forum, No. 240, Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defence University (NDU), Washington, DC, April 2009, pp. 1-8;

Hoffman, Frank G. “Hybrid Warfare and Challenges,” Joint Force Quarterly (JFQ), Issue 52, Forth Quarter 2009, pp. 34-39. 3 Gray, Schools for Strategy, pp. 22-23.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

5. ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ

ǽȖȚȧ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȈȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȍȚ ȌȖȔȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ Ȋ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȔ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȔ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȐ, țȎȍ Ȋ 20 ȊȍȒȍ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȏȈȟȈșȚțȦ ȘȈȏȊȐȊȈȓȈșȤ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȌȘțȋȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȕȈȗȈȌȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȕȈȟȈȓȖ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȗȘȍȌȊȈȘȧȍȚ ȖȉȢȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǴȖȎȕȖ șȖșȓȈȚȤșȧ ȕȈ ȈȚȈȒț ȇȗȖȕȐȍȑ ǷȖȘȚ ǨȘȚțȘȈ Ȋ 1905 Ȑ ǷȍȘȓ ǽȈȘȉȖȘȈ Ȋ 1941ȋȋ., ȕȈȗȈȌȍȕȐȍ ǫȐȚȓȍȘȈ ȕȈ ǷȖȓȤȠț Ȋ 1939ȋ. Ȑ ǹǹǹǸ Ȋ 1941ȋ. Ǫ ȕȈȟȈȓȍ 21 ȊȍȒȈ ȔȕȖȋȐȍ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȣ ȕȍ ȏȈȒȈȕȟȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ȗȖȌȗȐșȈȕȐȍȔ ȔȐȘȈ, ȕȖ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȦȚ ȚȓȍȚȤ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ «ȕȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȕȐ ȔȐȘȈ» ȐȓȐ «ȏȈȔȖȘȖȎȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ». ǺȈȒȖȋȖ ȘȖȌȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȒȘȐȏȐșȣ ȊȍșȤȔȈ țșȓȖȊȕȖ ȔȖȎȕȖ șȖȖȚȕȍșȚȐ ș ȜȖȘȔȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȕȕȣȔ șȊȖȌȖȔ ȗȘȈȊȐȓ Ȑ ȗȘȈȊȖȊȣȔ ȗȖȓȍȔ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ. ǪȣȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ ȒȈȒȐȝȓȐȉȖ ȥȚȈȗȖȊ Ȑ ȚȍȔ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌȖȊ ȔȍȎȌț ȕȐȔȐ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȊȍșȤȔȈ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈȚȐȟȕȣȔ, Ȑ ȉȖȓȤȠȈȧ ȟȈșȚȤ ȊȖȑȕ 21 ȊȍȒȈ ȊȍșȤȔȈ țșȓȖȊȕȖ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȘȍȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȈ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ «ȗȘȈȊȐȓȤȕȣȝ ȊȖȑȕ».

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȖȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȖ ȗȖȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȤ Ȋ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȍ ȕȖȊȖȑ, ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȊȔȍșȚȖ ȌȐșȒȘȍȚȕȖȋȖ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȈ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȑ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚșȧ ȒȖȕȚȐȕțțȔ șȖȗȍȘȕȐȟȍșȚȊȈ Ȑ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ (ǸȐș. 7). DzȖȕȚȐȕțțȔ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȍȚ Ȋ șȍȉȧ Ȋșȍ țșȐȓȐȧ ȕȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȊȍșȤ ȌȖșȚțȗȕȣȑ ȍȑ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȈȘȐȑ ȗȖ șȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȕȐȦ Ȑ țșȚȘȈȠȍȕȐȦ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ – ȖȚ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȈȞȐȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȐȓȣ ȌȖ ȍȍ ȓȖȒȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ. ǷȍȘȍȝȖȌ ȖȚ ȔȐȘȈ Ȓ ȒȘȐȏȐșț ȐȓȐ ȖȚ ȒȘȐȏȐșȈ Ȓ ȊȖȑȕȍ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȟȍȚȒȐȔ, ȕȖ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ șȖȉȖȑ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕțȦ ȕȐȠț «ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌȕȖȋȖ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ», ȖȉȓȈȌȈȦȡțȦ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȓȖȋȐȒȖȑ Ȑ șȊȖȐȔȐ ȚȖȟȒȈȔȐ țȧȏȊȐȔȖșȚȐ. ǹȚȖȘȖȕȈ, ȗȘȐȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȦȡȈȧșȧ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ Ȑ ȏȕȈȦȡȈȧ Ȗ șțȡȍșȚȊȖȊȈȕȐȐ ȕȐȠȐ, ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȖȗȣȚȈȚȤșȧ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȍȍ – ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȓȐȠȍȕȈ șȚȖȘȖȕȈ, ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȦȡȈȧ ȖșȚȈȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ șȚȈȘȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ1.

Ǫ ȕȖȊȖȔ ȔȐȘȍ ȋȐȉȘȐȌȕȣȝ ȈșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȟȕȣȝ ȊȖȑȕ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȊȣȌȍȓȐȚȤ ȚȖȟȒț, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȕȈȟȐȕȈȍȚșȧ ȐȓȐ ȏȈȒȈȕȟȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȊȘȈȎȌȍȉȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ șȚȖȘȖȕ. ǪȘȈȎȌȍȉȕȖșȚȤ, ȧȊȓȧȦȡȈȧșȧ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚȖȔ ȥȚȈȗȈ «șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ» Ȋ șȚȈȘȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ, ȚȍȗȍȘȤ ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȍȚ ȊȍșȤ ȒȖȕȚȐȕțțȔ ȒȘȐȏȐșȈ. ǪȕțȚȘȐ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ ȍȡȍ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȊȣȌȍȓȐȚȤ ș ȚȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȤȦ ȌȖșȚȖȊȍȘȕȖșȚȐ ȕȈȟȈȓȖ Ȑ ȒȖȕȍȞ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ ȒȖȕȍȞ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȔȈșȠȚȈȉȕȣȝ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ țȎȍ ȕȍ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ ȒȖȕȞȈ ȊȘȈȎȌȍȉȕȖșȚȐ. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒ șȒȖȘȍȍ «ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘțȍȚșȧ» Ȓ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȦ Ȋ ȒȖȕȊȍȕȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ Ȑ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȌȘțȋȐȔ ȜȖȘȔȈȔ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȊȘȈȎȌȍȉȕȖșȚȐ. ǷȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊȖ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȍȚșȧ ȌȖ Țȍȝ ȗȖȘ, ȗȖȒȈ ȕȍ ȐșșȧȒȕțȚ ȐȔȍȦȡȐȍșȧ Ȋ ȘȈșȗȖȘȧȎȍȕȐȐ ȕȈȞȐȐ ȖȗȞȐȐ ȐȓȐ ȕȍ ȗȘȖȐȏȖȑȌȍȚ ȕȈȌȓȖȔ ȊȖȓȐ.

1 Smith, Complexity, Networking, and Effects-Based Approaches to Operations, pp. 11-15.

217

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȜțȕȒȞȐȖȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȚȖȔț, ȟȚȖ «ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ ȗȖșȚȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȕȖȑ șȚȈȉȐȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ» (post-conflict stabilization operations) ȗȘȍȊȘȈ-

ȡȈȦȚșȧ Ȋ ȘȧȌ ȞȐȒȓȖȊ, ȏȈȊȍȘȠȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȐȚȤ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ țșȓȖȊȕȖ Ȑ ȟȈȡȍ ȊșȍȋȖ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȘȍȚȘȖșȗȍȒȚȐȊȕȖ. ǹȐȔȗȚȖȔȈȔȐ țșȗȍȠȕȖșȚȐ ȗȘȖȊȖȌȐȔȖȑ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȓțȎȐȚȤ ȗȘȐȍȔȓȍȔȣȑ țȘȖȊȍȕȤ ȕȍșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȗȖșȚȍȗȍȕȕȖȍ țȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȐȍ ȊȘȈȎȌȍȉȕȖșȚȐ.

ǸȐș. 7

ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ

ǪȘȈȎȌȍȉȕȖșȚȤ

ȀȐȘȖȒȖȔȈșȠȚȈȉȕȣȍ ȉ/Ȍ

ǴȐȘ		DzȘȐȏȐșȕȈȧ		ǷȖșȚȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȕȈȧ			ǴȐȘ	t
		ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ		ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ
			ȕȐȠȐ «ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌȕȖȋȖ	șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ»

ǴȐȘȖȚȊȖȘȟȍșȚȊȖ

ǶȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ ȗȖșȚȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȕȖȑ șȚȈȉȐȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ

218

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ǹȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȍ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ Ȑ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ ȌȈȕȖ Ȋ ǺȈȉȓȐȞȍ 41.

	ǺȈȉȓȐȞȈ 4
ǹȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȍ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ Ȑ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ
ǺȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȈȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ	ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ
	ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ
ǵȈȞȐȐ-ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ ȗȘȖȚȐȊ ȕȈȞȐȑ-	ǵȈȞȐȐ-ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ ȗȘȖȚȐȊ ȕȍȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚ-
ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊ.	Ȋȍȕȕȣȝ ȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ.
ǨȓȤȧȕșȣ.	DzȖȈȓȐȞȐȐ, ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȍ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ.
ǬȍȒȓȈȘȈȞȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ.	ǵȍȟȍȚȒȐȑ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌ Ȓ ȊȖȑȕȍ.
ǪȘȈȎȌȍȉȕȖșȚȤ șȖșȘȍȌȖȚȈȟȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȔȍȎȌț	ǪȘȈȎȌȍȉȕȖșȚȤ ȘȈȏȓȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȗȖ ȊșȍȔț Ȗȉ-
ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ șȚȖȘȖȕ.	ȡȍșȚȊț.
ǴȐȘ, ȒȘȐȏȐș, ȊȖȑȕȈ.	DzȖȕȚȐȕțțȔ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ.
ǿȍȚȒȈȧ ȗȘȈȊȖȊȈȧ ȉȈȏȈ Ȑ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ.	ǷȘȖȚȐȊȖȘȍȟȐȊȣȍ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȈ Ȑ ȗȘȈȊȖȊȈȧ ȉȈ-
	ȏȈ, șȖȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȖȌȕȖȑ șȚȖȘȖȕȖȑ.
ǸȈȏȌȍȓȤȕȣȍ țșȐȓȐȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ Ȑ ȋȘȈȎȌȈȕ-	DzȖȖȘȌȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ țșȐȓȐȧ Ȋșȍȑ ȕȈȞȐȐ.
șȒȐȝ ȊȓȈșȚȍȑ.
ǶșȕȖȊȕȈȧ ȈȘȍȕȈ – ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȗȖȓȍ ȉȖȧ. Ǫ	ǶșȕȖȊȕȈȧ ȈȘȍȕȈ – ȗșȐ-ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊȖ. Ǫ
ȜȖȒțșȍ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȐȏȕțȘȍȕȐȍ	ȜȖȒțșȍ ȥȓȍȒȚȘȖȕȕȣȍ ȔȍȌȐȈ Ȑ ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐ-
ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ.	ȟȍșȒȖȍ ȐȏȕțȘȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ.
ǷȖȉȍȌȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ Ȋ	ǷȖȉȍȌȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ ȕȈȕȍșȍȕȐȧ
ȘȍȠȈȦȡȍȔ șȘȈȎȍȕȐȐ.	ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒț.
ǷȖȉȍȌȈ ȍșȚȤ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚ ȘȈȏȋȘȖȔȈ ȊȖȑșȒ	ǷȖȉȍȌȈ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ ȖȚșțȚșȚ-
ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ.	ȊȐȧ ȊȣȉȖȘȈ (ȖȗȞȐȑ) ț ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȐȓȐ
	ȕȈȌȓȖȔȈ ȊȖȓȐ, ș ȗȖșȓȍȌțȦȡȐȔ ȖȚȒȈȏȖȔ ȖȚ
	ȉȖȘȤȉȣ.

ǹȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ Ȋ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȊȖ ȔȕȖȋȖȔ șȊȧȏȈȕȈ ș ȊȏȈȐȔȖȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȤȦ Ȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȔȐ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ Ȋ șȐșȚȍȔȍ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȘȍȈȒȞȐȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ șȍȋȖȌȕȧ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȞȍȗȐ ȖȉȘȈȚȕȣȝ șȊȧȏȍȑ Ȑ șȘȍȌț ȊȓȐȧȦȚ ȕȈ ȍȍ ȗȖșȓȍȌțȦȡȐȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȖȑ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ Ȑ ȒȖȕȚȐȕțțȔȈ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊȈ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȕȍ ȗȘȧȔȈȧ ȓȐȕȐȧ, ȕȖ ȞȐȒȓ Ȑ ȌȈȎȍ șȍȘȐȧ ȞȐȒȓȖȊ (ǸȐș. 8), ȗȘȐȟȍȔ ȞȐȒȓȣ ȕȍȖȉȧȏȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȖȚȘȈȎȈȦȚ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȔȈșȠȚȈȉȕȣȍ ȉȖȍȊȣȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ. ǵȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȐȑ ȞȐȒȓ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ șȊȧȏȈȕ ș ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȍȔ ȖȚ ȔȐȘȈ Ȓ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȔ ȜȖȘȔȈȔ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ Ȋ ȕȐȠȈȝ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌȕȖȋȖ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȖȗȣȚȒȈȔȐ șȕȐȏȐȚȤ ȕȍșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȤ. ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȞȐȒȓ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȖȚȘȈȎȈȚȤ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȚȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȑ ȜȖȘȔȣ ȒȘȐȏȐșȈ – ȋțȔȈȕȐ-

1 Ibid, p. 12.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȚȈȘȕȖȋȖ, ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȐȓȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ – ș ȊȖȏȊȘȈȡȍȕȐȍȔ Ȓ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȔ ȜȖȘȔȈȔ ȔȐȘȈ. ǹȓȍȌțȦȡȐȑ ȞȐȒȓ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȖȚȖȉȘȈȎȈȚȤ țȎȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȑ ȒȘȐȏȐș, șȖȗȘȖȊȖȎȌȈȦȡȐȑșȧ ȉȖȍȊȣȔȐ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȔȐ ȔȈȓȖȑ ȐȕȚȍȕșȐȊȕȖșȚȐ. ǰ, ȕȈȒȖȕȍȞ, șȈȔȣȑ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȑ, ȊȕȍȠȕȐȑ ȞȐȒȓ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȚȤ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȔȈșȠȚȈȉȕȣȍ ȉȖȍȊȣȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ.

ǸȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȕȈȧ ȊȣȠȍ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ, ȖȗȐȘȈȦȡȈȧșȧ ȕȈ ȚȍȖȘȐȦ ǹǨǹ, ȕȈȋȓȧȌȕȖ ȗȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ Ȋ ȍȍ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȕȍȒȖȘȘȍȒȚȕȖ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤ Ȗ ȊȖȏȊȘȈȚȍ Ȓ șȚȈȚțș-ȒȊȖ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȕȈȟȈȊȠȐȑșȧ ȞȐȒȓ ȕȍȐȏȉȍȎȕȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȍȚ ȐșȝȖȌȕȣȍ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȣ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȊȍȘȕțȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȖȔț șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȦ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ. ǴȍȚȈȜȖȘȖȑ ȒȘȐȏȐșȈ Ȑ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ șȗȐȘȈȓȤ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ș ȞȐȒȓȈȔȐ, ȐȏȔȍȕȧȦȡȐȔȐșȧ ȒȈȒ ȗȖ ȈȔȗȓȐȚțȌȍ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȗȖ ȠȈȋț, Ȋ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȐȐ ș ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȖȔ, șȒȖȘȖșȚȤȦ Ȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȖȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȋ ȕȍȋȖ ȊȒȓȦȟȍȕȣ (ǸȐș. 9).

ǾȐȒȓȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȊȏȋȓȧȌ ȕȈ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȒȘȐȏȐșȈ Ȑ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ ȕȍ ȍșȚȤ ȟȚȖȚȖ ȕȖȊȖȍ, Ȑ ȈȕȈȓȖȋȐȟȕȣȍ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȏȈȊȐșȐȔȣȍ ȞȐȒȓȣ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȦȚșȧ Ȋ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ. ǪȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȚȈȒ ȕȈȏȣȊȈȍȔȣȝ ȌȓȐȕȕȣȝ ȐȓȐ «ȒȖȕȌȘȈȚȤȍȊșȒȐȝ» ȊȖȓȕ1 ȕȈ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ șȜȍȘț ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȖ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȌȈȊȕȖ. ǰȔȍȕȕȖ ș ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȞȐȒȓȐȟȕȖșȚȤȦ ȔȕȖȋȐȍ ȈȊȚȖȘȣ șȊȧȏȣȊȈȦȚ 45-50-ȓȍȚȕȐȍ ȞȐȒȓȣ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȝ ȊȖȑȕ Ȋ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ ǭȊȘȖȗȣ2. ǵȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȗȍȘȐȖȌ, ȕȈȟȐȕȈȧ ș ǪȍȘșȈȓȤșȒȖȑ ȒȖȕȜȍȘȍȕȞȐȐ, «ȏȈȊȍȘȠȐȊȠȍȑ» ǷȍȘȊțȦ ȔȐȘȖȊțȦ ȊȖȑȕț, ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ șȖȉȖȑ ȗȖșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȒȘȐȏȐșȖȊ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȖȑ ȐȕȚȍȕșȐȊȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȣ, ȗȘȐȊȍȌȠȐȝ Ȋ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȔ șȟȍȚȍ Ȓ ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȍ. ǪȍȘșȈȓȤșȒȈȧ ȒȖȕȜȍȘȍȕȞȐȧ ȕȈȊȧȏȈȓȈ ǪȍȑȔȈȘșȒȖȑ ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȐ ȚȈȒȐȍ țȕȐȏȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȐȍ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ țșȓȖȊȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȕȍ ȔȖȋȓȐ ȕȍ ȗȘȐȊȍșȚȐ Ȓ ȒȖȓȓȈȗșț ȕȍȔȍȞȒȖȋȖ șȘȍȌȕȍȋȖ ȒȓȈșșȈ Ȑ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȦ ǫȐȚȓȍȘȈ Ȑ ȕȈȞȐȏȔȈ ȒȈȒ șȗȍȞȐȜȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȖȚȒȓȐȒȈ ȕȈ țȕȐȎȍȕȐȍ3.

ǵȖȊȈȧ ȒȖȕȚȐȕțțȔ-ȔȖȌȍȓȤ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ 21 ȊȍȒȈ ȗȖȌȊȖȌȧȚ Ȓ ȊȣȊȖȌț Ȗ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȍ Ȑ ȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒȈȝ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ. ǹȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȚȈȒ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȈȟȍ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ șȊȧȏȈȕȈ ș ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȔȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȜȖȒțșȐȘțȦȚșȧ ȉȖȓȤȠȍ ȕȈ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȖȔ ȐȏȔȍȘȍȕȐȐ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ, ȞȍȓȖșȚȕȣ Ȑ ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȦȚ ȊșȦ ȕȈȞȐȦ ȐȓȐ ȒȖȈȓȐȞȐȦ4.

1 DzȖȕȌȘȈȚȤȍȊ ǵ.Ǭ., ǷȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȐ. – Ǵ.:. ȅȒȖȕȖȔȐȒȈ. 1989. – 526 ș.

2 Goldstein, Joshua S. Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1988. 12 January 2011. http://www.joshuagoldstein.com/jgcycle.htm.

3 Watt, Richard M. The Kings Depart: The Tragedy of Germany – Versailles and the German Revolution. New York: Simon and Shuster, 1968, pp. 501-510.

4 Smith, Complexity, Networking, and Effects-Based Approaches to Operations, pp. 15-16.

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